NFL Week 3 Super Bowl Odds, Best Bets and Longshot Picks
The 2021 NFL season has roared through two full weeks, plus a third Thursday Night Football game, and bettors have enjoyed a thrilling early ride. A bevy of squads have risen from the basement of the 2020 standings to early-season success in 2021, including the 2-0 San Francisco 49ers, Carolina Panthers, and Denver Broncos.
All season long, sportsbooks will list futures odds for Super Bowl LVI, which will inevitably fluctuate throughout the year. So, every week, RotoGrinders will be providing you with a market update on the top teams to win the big game.
In each edition, I will feature the updated top ten teams on the board. I will then break down my favorite current bets, top value investments, and best longshot pick. This will be a fun practice throughout what should be a roller coaster of a season, and should also help us make some lucrative long-term wagers between now and February 13.
Futures betting continues to rise in popularity, kind of like playing the long game in the stock market as opposed to short-selling (betting individual games). Making futures bets allows you to hitch your wagons to a player or team you believe in, and cash in on your investment down the line if they accomplish what you thought they would.
Let’s dive into our initial market update of Super Bowl contenders, and make some early picks!
All odds are from BetMGM, and all stats are from NFL.com and Pro Football Reference.
2021 Super Bowl Odds (Top 10) — Week 3
Kansas City Chiefs +500
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +575
Buffalo Bills +1200
Los Angeles Rams +1200
San Francisco 49ers +1200
Baltimore Ravens +1400
Green Bay Packers +1400
Cleveland Browns +1600
Seattle Seahawks +2000
Arizona Cardinals +2500
Best Bets
Kansas City Chiefs (+500)
It’s boring to go chalk here, but it would be foolish to pick anyone but Kansas City as the best bet. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs narrowly lost 36-35 to the AFC-rival Ravens on Sunday Night Football, but the reigning AFC champs exhibited a vastly superior passing game, as usual.
Mahomes still has the No. 1 tight end in the world in “(player-popup #travis-kelce)Travis Kelce”:/players/travis-kelce-18314—as well as the most explosive wideout in the game in Tyreek Hill —so, one game-losing fumble by running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire shouldn’t scare you away from a superb investment opportunity.
If anything, Kansas City will approach the rest of the season with even more motivation than it had at the start of the year. Mahomes is hungry, and probably angry (hangry!?)—and that should terrify the rest of the NFL. If safety Tyrann “Honey Badger” Mathieu stays healthy, and continues to play ball-hawking, infectious defense, then look out, world.
The Chiefs have an improved offensive line, and the same unstoppable offense that took them to back-to-back Super Bowls. Here’s banking on their strong odds to make it a third straight, and win their second title in three years.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+575)
Of course, we would be remiss to omit the reigning Super Bowl-champion Buccaneers from this column. Tom Brady looks as good as ever at 44 years young, and the Bucs are the only team in the NFL to bring back every starter from their 2020 roster. That’s an incredible feat, and it shows us that everybody’s all-in on going for the repeat.
The wide receiver tandem of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans appear to be healthy, and Brady favorites Rob Gronkowski (NFL-leading 4 TDs) and Antonio Brown (5-125-1 in Week 1) look as dominant as ever. If Tampa can find consistency in its running game, and improve on a shaky start from its secondary, I would not be surprised in the least to see Brady win Super Bowl ring No. 8.
Favorite Teams Over +1000
Los Angeles Rams (+1200)
Many of my colleagues would go Buffalo or San Francisco here—but I’m worried about the offensive regression we have seen with Josh Allen and the Bills, and San Fran still has way too many question marks at QB and wide receiver (never mind its litany of RB injuries). Thus, I’m hitching my early-season wagons to the Rams, who look superb in their first year with veteran signal-caller Matthew Stafford.
Stafford and wide receiver Cooper Kupp have become fast friends, apparently having breakfast together regularly and sharing the best early-season QB-wideout rapport in the league. Once they build up chemistry with Stafford, wide receiver Robert Woods and tight end Tyler Higbee are pretty dang good, too. And we all know how dominating the LA defense can be, led by perennial All-Pro Aaron Donald and elite cornerback Jalen Ramsey.
The Rams are a complete team, they’ve made it to the Super Bowl within the last few years, and Stafford gives them the opportunity to get over the hump and win it all. They would be the second franchise in as many years to win the Super Bowl at their home stadium (SoFi in Inglewood, CA), after the Bucs won it all at Raymond James last season.
Green Bay Packers (+1400)
The Ravens (+1400) would be a popular choice here, but contenders always seem to catch up to “(player-popup #lamar-jackson)Lamar Jackson”:/players/lamar-jackson-328097’s explosive RPO system by the end of the season. The Browns (+1600) similarly rely too much on the run, while the Seahawks (+2000) rely too much on the pass and cannot stop anyone. Therefore, I’m picking the most complete of these middle-tier teams, the Packers.
Green Bay got blown out in Week 1 by the Saints at a neutral site (Jacksonville, due to the post-Hurricane Ida conditions in New Orleans). That led to murmurs about reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers not caring about football anymore, or not having it anymore, or yadda yadda yadda. Then Rodgers, All-Pro receiver Davante Adams, and stud running back Aaron Jones exploded on Monday Night Football, beating divisional opponent Detroit 35-17. R-E-L-A-X, said ARodg without speaking.
Rodgers has always had elite skill at the quarterback position, as evidenced by his three MVP awards. And he’s won it all once (2011), so we know he can get it done if the chips fall in the right places. But he’s fallen short in so many postseasons the past decade, and thus bettors are hesitant to invest in the Pack’s chances to get over the hump. I still say Green Bay would be a sage investment at +1400, at least for $50.
The big game will be held one hour from Chino, CA, where Rodgers was born and raised. And Jones will be playing to honor his late father Alvin Jones, who died of COVID in April. Don’t be surprised if we’re listening to these storylines again in February.
Best Longshot
Dallas Cowboys (+3000)
Many readers probably expected me to feature the Arizona Cardinals (+2500) here, but I don’t think Kyler Murray can maintain the early-season heroics he has demonstrated across 20-plus weeks of play (nor do I believe in Arizona’s defense, whatsoever). If the Cowboys can improve upon their defense between now and the trade deadline, they are my longshot pick to win it all.
I mentioned storylines in the Green Bay blurb. There’s no better storyline in the NFL than Dak Prescott, who has overcome the death of his mother, the 2020 suicide of his brother, and multiple surgeries from his gruesome leg injury last season. Less than a year after a compound fracture in his ankle, Prescott is leading an explosive Cowboys offense despite a shoulder strain.
We all know how high-octane Dallas can be with Dak, wideouts Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, and the running back tandem of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. And we also know what kind of ratings the Cowboys would pull if they made it to the Super Bowl. I’d throw $20 down on them now, before their odds rise later in the season. As long as their defense takes some steps forward, I don’t think they will be outside the top ten on the odds boards very often the rest of the way.
Image Credit: Imagn