NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 12 - Page 3
Chicago at St. Louis
| Chicago Bears | St. Louis Rams | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Edward Jones Dome | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 0 | 45.5 | 22.75 | 0 | 45.5 | 22.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 28.2 | 3 | 10 | 18 | Offense | 22.4 | 19 | 21 | 22 | |
| Defense | 26.7 | 26 | 17 | 31 | Defense | 23.4 | 14 | 14 | 18 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| St. Louis | 12 | 30 | 16 | 2 | Chicago | 10 | 25 | 13 | 24 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Marshall | 103 | 10.3 | 11.7 | 10.0 | Givens | 57 | 5.7 | 6.0 | ||
| Jeffery | 96 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 11.0 | Austin | 54 | 4.7 | 2.5 | ||
| Bennett | 23 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | Pettis | 49 | 4.9 | 2.0 | ||
| Bennett | 64 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | Cook | 56 | 5.8 | 4.0 | ||
Chicago Bears
It’ll be another week of the McCown project for the Bears as they head to St. Louis to take on a team coming off a dominant win over the Colts followed by a bye week. McCown played his 2nd full game as the Bears starter and struggled a bit against Baltimore, totaling just 216 yards and 1 TD. This week he should be able to take advantage of some better weather conditions (in the dome), and move the ball a little more efficiently. In his two full starts, McCown has targeted Alshon Jeffery 20 total times, Marshall 23 times, Bennett 10 times, and Forte 14 times. His biggest concern on Sunday will be a STL pass rush averaging 3.2 sacks per game on the season and a league high 4.7 sacks over the last 3 games. William Hayes, Chris Long and most notably Robert Quinn all rank in the Top-15 in ProFootballFocus’s pass rush ratings for D-Linemen in the 4-3 set. This could spell bad news for a Bears pass blocking unit that ranks 2nd to last in the NFL on PFF.
The Rams rush defense is a bit bipolar, but the overall theme seems to be struggling against top-end backs. DeMarco Murray, Frank Gore, Arian Foster, and Chris Johnson have all gone for 140+ yards against STL this season. The only big name back to really struggle was Marshawn Lynch who only saw 8 touches in his Week 8 game against the Rams. Matt Forte has definitely proven he’s in the class of the big name running backs this season. He’s averaging 4.4 yards per carry, 2.2 yards after contact and perhaps most surprising of all, he’s found the end zone 7 times as the Bears new coaching staff seems willing to get Forte involved in the red zone.
St. Louis Rams
For the Rams, their biggest story before the bye was the huge game from Tavon Austin. He had just two catches, but he made them count, going for 138 yards and 2 TDs (plus a return TD). But there’s a common struggle in daily fantasy when it comes to predicting the big game and chasing the big game. In the case of Austin, you may be chasing the big game. He was targeted just 3 times and while he proved he still has that big play upside he displayed at WVU, you can’t rely on three opportunities each game with Kellen Clemens throwing to you. Speaking of Clemens, he has an ESPN QBR of just 36 and his inability to move the ball downfield drags STL’s offense down and guys like Jared Cook and Chris Givens have struggled because of it.
On the ground, it’s a different story as Zac Stacy has run away with the starting job and he’s posted 224 rush yards and 3 TDs over the Rams last 3 games. His matchup against Chicago this weak is about as good as it gets too. Chicago has allowed 6 different 100+ yard rushers on the season, and at least 95 yards to an opposing RB in each of their last 5 games. In that 5 game span, they’ve also allowed 6 rushing touchdowns and rejuvenated the careers of both Brandon Jacobs and Ray Rice. Stacy is athletic enough to torch the rush defense that has the worst rating in the NFL according to PFF and should be in line for a huge day.
Fantasy Relevant
- Matt Forte – Forte is a top-3 priced back on nearly every site, and for good reason as he’s invaluable in both the rushing and passing game for the Bears. He should be able to find holes against the STL rush defense and will need to be a check down option early and often given the Bears O-line struggles combined with the STL pass rush. He’s in play in any format.
- Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery – Both have been seeing a ton of targets in recent weeks and while I don’t love McCown’s chances against the Rams pass rush, I do think both Jeffery and Marshall can have success against their smaller defensive backs. Marshall is a top-5 priced receiver on every site, but Jeffery does have decent value on FanDuel at $6500 and DraftKings at $5900.
- Zac Stacy – Broke down Stacy and the matchup above, and I’d argue he’s a top-5 back in daily fantasy this weekend. You’re going to have to pay up for him though, as he stands in the 80th or higher percentile in running back pricing on nearly every site. You can however get him for a bargain on DraftKings still, where he’s just $6200 and less than Ray Rice, DeMarco Murray and Frank Gore.
Indianapolis at Arizona
| Indianapolis Colts | Arizona Cardinals | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:05PM ET | Univ. of Phoenix Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 1 | 45 | 22 | -1 | 45 | 23 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.2 | 9 | 17 | 14 | Offense | 21.4 | 22 | 15 | 25 | |
| Defense | 22.0 | 10 | 16 | 28 | Defense | 21.2 | 8 | 20 | 2 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Arizona | 14 | 3 | 7 | 32 | Indianapolis | 13 | 4 | 22 | 10 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Hilton | 83 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 9.0 | Fitzgerald | 80 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 9.0 | |
| Whalen | 20 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | Floyd | 68 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 11.0 | |
| Heyward-Bey | 48 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | Roberts | 50 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | |
| Fleener | 58 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 10.0 | Housler | 34 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 9.0 | |
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts head to Arizona with some extra rest following their 30-27 TNF victory over the Titans. Their offense has had it’s ups and downs since Reggie Wayne went down, but both T.Y. Hilton and Coby Fleener have done their best to fill in. Hilton was dominant the first two weeks without Wayne, totaling 251 yards and 3 TDs. But in Week 11 he struggled against one of the best secondaries in the NFL in TEN, catching just 5 balls for 44 yards. This week he’ll likely be shadowed by Patrick Peterson, who ranks 15th in coverage ratings on PFF. With Hilton struggling, Luck’s college buddy Coby Fleener stepped in with his best game of the season. He caught 8 balls for 107 yards. Tight Ends in general have had a ton of success against Arizona, which is great news for Fleener. Things didn’t get better for ARI against the TE position last week when no-name Danny Noble caught an 62 yard TD bomb for Jacksonville. Still, outside of that one lapse they have been better over the past 4 weeks. No tight end, including Tony Gonzalez and Garrett Graham, has posted over 40 yards receiving in that span if you throw out the Noble TD.
Indy’s rushing attack is a disaster and there was a small flicker of hope for clarity when Trent Richardson name popped up on a Thursday injury report. It looks like it’s minor though, which is great for Trent and terrible for daily fantasy. Donald Brown has been really strong in limited snaps with Richardson, but the matchup this week overall could be their biggest challenge. Arizona ranks 8th on PFF’s run-stop ratings and has allowed only 1 back to go for over 100 yards against them this season. They had some early issues with backs catching the ball out of the backfield, but since Week 4 have allowed no more than 30 yards receiving to any running back.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals took down the not-so-feisty Jaguars last weekend and are now in the thick of the NFC Wild Card race. They’re a surprising 6-4 despite a head coach that absolutely refuses to use their most talented running back. Last week I broke down the disparity between Mendenhall and Ellington, but at this point the argument is becoming futile. That rushing game on a whole is a mystery and even though their matchup against the Colts is above-average, it’s just not worth rolling the dice on that situation until it’s more clear. If you do want to take a chance, Ellington is the best bet and should have a slightly easier matchup as the Colts will be missing one of their every-down linebackers in Erik Walden, who was suspended for a headbutt in Week 11.
Much like the Colts, Arizona’s daily fantasy value will come through the air this week. The Colts were gashed by Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker in Week 11 and have now allowed some pretty gaudy stat lines to opposing wideouts over the past five weeks:
- Wk6: Keenan Allen – 9 catches, 107 yards, 1 TD
- Wk7: Eric Decker: – 8 catches, 150 yards, 1 TD
- Wk7: Wes Welker: – 7 catches, 96 yards
- Wk7: Demaryius Thomas: – 4 catches, 82 yards, 1 TD
- Wk9: Andre Johnson: – 8 catches, 229 yards, 3 TD
- Wk10: Tavon Austin: – 2 catches, 138 yards, 2 TD
- Wk11: Kendall Wright: 9 catches, 80 yards
That’s at least 15 fantasy points to 7 different wideouts over a five game span (full-point PPR). That leaves Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd in a great situation, and both saw 9+ targets from Carson Palmer a week ago. The other notable option in Arizona’s passing game has emerged out of nowhere in recent weeks. Rob Housler had been injured in the early part of the year, then had a 6 week stretch where he was irrelevant in 5 of 6 games. Now in the last two games, he’s posted 10 catches for 122 yards and a TD on 14 targets. 9 of those targets came last week and Palmer seems to be incorporating him more in the offense. He’ll face a Colts defense that has been a mixed bag against tight ends, but is coming off allowing a 10 catch, 91 yard and 1 TD performance to Delanie Walker and will be without one of their linebackers Erik Walden, as referenced above.
Fantasy Relevant
- Andrew Luck – Hilton may have a tough matchup on the outside, but Luck can remain relevant because he has surprising athleticism for such a strong pocket passer. He picked up his 4th rushing touchdown of the season last week and should be able to get something going with Fleener through the air. He has big upside and a pretty low floor this week, so he’s probably safest in GPPs.
- Coby Fleener – If you want to handcuff Luck to a receiver, Fleener is the best option against Arizona. Their struggles against tight ends are well documented, but more importantly Fleener has seen 10 targets in each of his last two games. He’s a critical part of the Colts Wayne-less offense and is a steal on DraftDay at $8850, FantasyFeud at $77K and FanThrowDown at $8800.
- Carson Palmer – I documented the Colts struggles against WR’s, but that has also translated to success for quarterbacks in recent weeks as well. They were lit up by Peyton Manning and Case Keenum, and then failed to shut down two backup QBs in Kellen Clemens and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Palmer is somewhere in between those two groups, and is coming off a strong game against Jacksonville. He looks especially tasty on DraftStreet this week as a QB2 option at $11K.
- Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd – The reasoning behind this is outlined above, so instead let’s look at where these two project the best value. Fitzgerald is a bargain at Feud for $85K, and has nice value on FanDuel for $6600 (same price on DK as well). For Floyd, I really like his price point on DS at $8.7K and DraftDay at $10.5K.
- Rob Housler – Housler’s price tag is all over the place this week, so be sure to pick your spots with him. Somehow he ended up at $5000 on DraftKings, which is a near crime if you consider him in any format other than tournaments at that price when Greg Olsen, Jordan Reed, Garrett Graham and Jordan Cameron are all cheaper. But at $4900 on FD and $5600 on DS, he is a nice bargain bin punt TE.
Tennessee at Oakland
| Tennessee Titans | Oakland Raiders | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:05PM ET | O.co Coliseum | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 1 | 41.5 | 20.25 | -1 | 41.5 | 21.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.7 | 18 | 23 | 15 | Offense | 19.4 | 26 | 31 | 4 | |
| Defense | 22.6 | 13 | 7 | 20 | Defense | 24.6 | 20 | 25 | 6 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Oakland | 22 | 15 | 27 | 16 | Tennessee | 4 | 27 | 1 | 25 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Wright | 84 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 12.0 | Moore | 74 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 6.0 | |
| Washington | 64 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 3.0 | Ford | 16 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | |
| Hunter | 19 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | Streater | 53 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 8.0 | |
| Walker | 54 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 10.0 | Rivera | 35 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 6.0 | |
Tennessee Titans
In a matchup between two 4-6 teams, the Titans will hit the road and try to bounce back from their second straight loss to a divisional opponent. Ryan Fitzpatrick will try to right some of the Titans issues and while he has yet to play the majority of a game AND get the win, he has been food for thought for fantasy owners. He also brings a different approach to this offense, which has lead to some players emerging and others disappearing. His style lends itself to throwing short, quick passes, which has benefited the likes of Delanie Walker and Kendall Wright. Here’s a look at Fitzpatrick’s target breakdown in his 4 full games played this year:
PLAYER – Wk5, Wk6, Wk10, Wk11, AVG
- Kendall Wright – 8,8,9,12,9.25
- Delanie Walker – 6,5,8,10,7.25
- Nate Washington – 8,4,5,3,5.00
- Chris Johnson – 5,4,7,1,4.25
He’s been all over Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker. Wright has posted no less than 9.5 FP in each of those four games and Walker has a TD and at least 60 yards receiving in each of his last 2 games with Fitz at the helm. These guys should be open against the Raiders too, as the Oakland secondary allowed their 4th 300+ yard passing game (albeit with 2 QBs combined), in Week 11. The Raiders rank 23rd in PFF’s pass coverage ratings and have been torn apart by worse quarterbacks than Fitzpatrick.
On the ground, it’s a split between Johnson and Greene where Greene is getting the critical deep red zone touches and Johnson seems to see touches between the 10s. That didn’t matter to Johnson’s value in Week 11 though, as he was able to find pay dirt on 2 different occasions. Oakland’s front seven was once one of the stronger in the NFL, but they’ve now allowed Andre Brown to go for 115 yards and Ben Tate to run for 88 yards in back to back weeks.
Oakland Raiders
McGloin will draw another start on Sunday but could be in for a long day against this Titans secondary that locked down T.Y. Hilton in Week 11 and has two of the best coverage guys in all of football with Alterraun Verner and Jason McCourty. The matchup may be even better for the Titans with Denarius Moore listed as questionable and a fair amount of uncertainty for Sunday surrounding his status. Regardless, McGloin will have to use his tight end more often, as Tennessee is much more vulnerable with their linebackers in coverage than they are on the outside. Luckily for McGloin, that’s something he showed he liked to do much more than Pryor ever did. Mychal Rivera was targeted 6 times and caught 5 balls for 54 yards with McGloin on the field last week. The Titans haven’t allowed a WR to hit 100+ yards since Week 2 vs. DeAndre Hopkins but they did just let Coby Fleener go for 100+ in Week 11.
In the running game, Darren McFadden will likely sit again meaning big things for Rashad Jennings. Jennings has been superb even with McFadden on the field this season and now has a start against one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. Donald Brown managed 80 yards on just 14 carries against them last week and they’ve allowed an opponent RB to score a TD in each of their last 5 games including multi-TDs in 4 of those 5. Jennings, who is a threat in both the passing and rushing game, should see a heavy dose of touches in a game that should be close throughout.
TEN @ OAK – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Ryan Fitzpatrick – Fitz is only a QB2 option, but on DS and SS where he’s priced in the bottom 10 quarterbacks, he can be a nice tournament QB2. He’s posted some strong fantasy totals in his starts and should be able to get over on this Oakland secondary.
- Kendall Wright – Love his value in PPR formats, not so much in the half point PPR. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 2, but he has 7+ catches in three of his last four games. You need the TD from him at .5 PPR but on a full point PPR site like DK (with potential bonuses for 100+ yards) he can hit value without finding the end zone.
- Delanie Walker – Walker is now a top-10 priced tight end on FanDuel and DraftDay, so you may want to try and find a better value there. But on the other sites, he’s a decent bargain and has been a red zone machine over the past four games. I really like the $4500 price tag on DraftKings or the $59K price tag on Feud.
- Rashad Jennings – Jennings has a real strong matchup and should see a ton of touches, making him a strong GPP play and H2H or 50/50 play. The two sites where he stands out are $11600 on DraftDay and $5500 on DK. Both are full point PPR too, so he has even more value.
- Mychal Rivera – This is an absolute ‘punt the tight end’ play, but it did look like McGloin wanted to use Rivera more than Pryor ever had. He’s $3.6K on DS, $3.1K on DK and min-price on DraftDay at $5K. He can find the end zone and immediately provide value in something like a DFFC qualifier.
Dallas at NY Giants
| Dallas Cowboys | New York Giants | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:25PM ET | MetLife Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 2.5 | 47 | 22.25 | -2.5 | 47 | 24.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 27.4 | 5 | 13 | 28 | Offense | 19.2 | 28 | 14 | 28 | |
| Defense | 25.8 | 25 | 32 | 29 | Defense | 25.6 | 24 | 15 | 7 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| NY Giants | 19 | 10 | 14 | 21 | Dallas | 32 | 32 | 23 | 29 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Bryant | 90 | 8.9 | 6.5 | Cruz | 98 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 11.0 | ||
| Williams | 50 | 5.0 | 6.0 | Nicks | 77 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 5.0 | ||
| Beasley | 37 | 4.5 | 6.5 | Randle | 53 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | ||
| Witten | 72 | 7.2 | 8.0 | Myers | 41 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 4.0 | ||
Dallas Cowboys
The storyline of this NFC East Battle will be the same as it has been for the past few years. Romo vs. Eli. Over the last 3 years, that battle has lead to some exciting fantasy outputs for the two. In fact, one of the two QBs has posted 20 or more fantasy points in each of their last 5 games against each other:
Since we’re in the Cowboys section, we’ll break down Romo first. In those 5 games he’s averaged 22.42 FPPG to go with 323 passing yards, 2.4 TDs and 1.4 INTs (although 4 came in one game in 2012). While the Cowboys are just 2-3 in those 5 contests, Romo has certainly held up his end of the bargain. His top wideout, Dez Bryant, has not fared quite as well vs. the G-men. He’s admitted he doesn’t like being touched and NY does a good job of pissing him off. In those 5 games, he’s averaging just 4 catches for 67 yards and has only 1 TD. That 1 score came in the Week 1 matchup between these two teams on Bryant’s only catch; a 50-yard bomb. Jason Witten has fared a little better, averaging 7.6 receptions and nearly 70 yards with 2 scores in those 5 games. But much of that total came in his remarkable 18 reception game last season. For the most part, it has been the unknowns who step up and have huge games. The Cole Beasley, Dwayne Harris types.
As far as the current matchup goes, the Giants have forced at least one INT in each of their last four games and haven’t allowed a passing touchdown in that span. Scott Tolzien tore them up in terms of yardage, with 339 passing yards, but turned it over 3 times and failed to throw for a score. None of the three teams prior to Green Bay even reached 200 passing yards. They’ve been much improved thanks to the leadership of the recently acquired Jon Beason and are allowing under 12 points per game in that 4-week span.
New York Giants
The Giants draw a Cowboys team coming off a bye week after getting slaughtered by the Saints in New Orleans. Their defense showed signs of weakness at every possible angle and when Sean Lee went down it only got worse. Lee is expected to be out again this weekend, meaning Dallas will be without the 6th best linebacker in the NFL according to PFF’s LB ratings. That should mean big things for Andre Brown, who has seen 53 touches in two games since returning from injury. In Week 10, New Orleans backs accounted for three of the top-5 fantasy scores while combining for 244 rush yards, 3 rush TD, 16 receptions, 115 receiving yards and 2 receiving TDs. The only good news for Dallas is that the bye week should have given DeMarcus Ware some time to rest and he might be the healthiest he’s been since picking off Eli in Week 1.
Speaking of Eli, his numbers have been slightly less than Romo’s in their matchups but still impressive. He’s averaging 320 passing yards, 2 TD and 1 INT in those 5 games to total just over 20 fantasy points per game. Lately, Eli has turned into a better game manager but his stats have suffered. He’s also had interceptions in each of his past two games, but while the Giants are winning those are going to be overlooked. But you can’t look past the Week 1 450-yard game he had vs. Dallas in a losing effort and 5 games the Cowboys have had where the opposing QB threw for 390 yards or more this season and not love Eli in tournaments.
A last important injury note to watch for, Hakeem Nicks is expected to play but listed as questionable. If he sits, look for Reuben Randle to be a tremendous value option.
DAL @ NYG – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Tony Romo – Coming off the bye, Romo makes for a good GPP play this weekend. He’s either the 5th or 6th highest priced QB this week on every site except FanDuel where he’s fourth and FantasyFeud where he’s 10th.
- Dez Bryant – As much as Dez has struggled against the Giants, he still remains one of the best boom or bust GPP plays in daily fantasy football. He has a nose for the end zone and can account for his value on 2 or 3 big plays. After the stinker in New Orleans, expect Dez to be ready to go in Week 12. His price has fallen off a bit at DraftKings this week, and he’s sitting at $8K.
- Jason Witten – Witten has the best matchup of all Cowboys this weekend, with the Giants ranking 21st against opposing tight ends. He had 70 yards and 2 scores in Week 1 and is a steal at $9.8K on DraftDay with their full point PPR scoring. In general, Witten’s value is higher on sites that award that whole point per reception.
- Eli Manning – Like most of the players in this game, Eli is a tournament play only. He’s been wildly inconsistent and lately hasn’t been sustaining much fantasy value. But the matchup is too good to ignore and he’s the 15th highest priced QB on average across the 7 sites this weekend. He stands out most on FanDuel where he’s the 20th priced QB and DraftStreet where he’s the 12th highest.
- Victor Cruz – WR1’s have torn apart the Cowboys secondary all season and Cruz has seen double digit targets in 3 consecutive weeks. He’s one of the only plays in this game I like in both head to head and GPP formats.
- Andre Brown – Last, but far from least, is Brown who has a dream matchup against the Lee-less Cowboys. Brown should be a lock for 20+ carries and showed some versatility last week in the passing game, grabbing 3 balls for 27 yards. He’s got a great chance of finding the end zone and is a great play in any format. He really stands out on DraftKings right now at $6K.