NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 14 - Page 5
NY Giants at San Diego
| New York Giants | San Diego Chargers | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:25PM ET | Qualcomm Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 3 | 47 | 22 | -3 | 47 | 25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.8 | 26 | 18 | 26 | Offense | 23.2 | 16 | 4 | 21 | |
| Defense | 24.8 | 19 | 13 | 9 | Defense | 23.1 | 13 | 28 | 22 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| San Diego | 26 | 12 | 29 | 16 | NY Giants | 19 | 9 | 11 | 24 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Cruz | 109 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 7.0 | Allen | 82 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 10.0 | |
| Nicks | 79 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | Brown | 56 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 2.0 | |
| Randle | 64 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 4.0 | Royal | 48 | 4.4 | 3.5 | ||
| Myers | 52 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 6.0 | Gates | 98 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 9.0 | |
New York Giants
Going to save the chit-chat about the Giants and reiterate what I said last week. Stop chasing Eli Manning. If you’re a newer player and you are looking at the matchups, Eli has looked good on paper almost every single week this year. He’s been a popular tournament play nearly every single week. I saw a lineup posted earlier this week with Eli in it and I threw a small hissy fit by myself. San Diego will be the 7th bottom-10 defense vs. quarterbacks that Manning will play this season, including multiple games against the Redskins and Cowboys. He has just 1 20+ fantasy point game and it came in Week 1. He’s just not very good this year, and while it’s not impossible that he has a huge game somewhere along the line, it’s not a good risk anymore.
With that said, I do like Victor Cruz this week as he matches up on the outside with Richard Marshal and Shareece Wright of the Chargers. Marshall ranks 93rd in coverage ratings on ProFootballFocus (which is best among qualified SD corners) and if Wright is forced to cover Cruz, look out, as he is dead last among qualified corners in coverage ratings. All of the Giants receivers have strong matchups this weekend but all have been extremely risky this season and only once have multiple WR’s for NYG had 15+ fantasy points in a game.
The secondary for San Diego is bad, but it might be the ground game that has the most success for the Giants. Last week, Cincinnati was able to wear down SD’s defense by running it down their throat early on. BJGE the Law Firm was able to go for 92 yards and Bernard tacked on another 57. Andre Brown will see almost all of the touches for the Giants and is one of the best candidates to break 100 yards this weekend against a Chargers defense that ranks fourth worst in the NFL vs. the run on PFF.
San Diego Chargers
The Chargers are coming off a tough home loss to a good Bengals team, but will have to bounce back at home against the Giants. The passing game for San Diego relies on Philip Rivers, the tight ends and Keenan Allen mostly. Allen is on fire right now and might be sliding under the radar a bit after tallying his 2nd consecutive 100+ yard game last weekend. Allen likes to line up on the left side of the field for the majority of snaps, meaning he’ll likely see a heavy dose of Jayron Hosley instead of Prince Amukamara who’s played every game at right corner for the Giants. Allen could also run into linebacker Jon Beason a bit, as 60 of his receptions this season have come over the middle of the field in the 0-15 yard range. Beason’s a good player, but he has a -4.4 coverage rating on PFF so Allen should be able to find success in that range on Sunday. Rivers should also be able to use both Gates and Green at the TE slot against a Giants defense that ranks 24th against Tight Ends.
The rushing game for San Diego has been impressive recently and they’ve made an effort to get Mathews/Woodhead 20 combined carries in each of their last four games. The Giants rush defense ranks 6th on PFF, so yardage via the run may be hard to come by for a team with a timeshare at their RB position. The screen game has however been a weak spot for NYG and are allowing the 6th most receiving yards per game to opposing backs at 46.6 yards per game. For that reason, Woodhead should have the upper-hand in this game, but there are some reasons to worry when it comes to his involvement in the passing game. Over the last three weeks, he’s seen just 9 total targets compared to 10 for Mathews. The biggest detractor from Woodhead’s involvement in the passing game has been Ladarius Green though. As a 2nd TE option for Rivers, Woodhead has been a significantly less important piece of the Chargers offense.
NYG @ SD – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Andre Brown – Brown is a top-5 back for me this weekend and should be considered in both cash games and tournaments. I really like his value on StarStreet at $11.5K, $7K on DK, $7.1K on FD and $11K on DS.
- Victor Cruz – Cruz’s price dropped on a few sites, but for the most part either stayed the same or slightly increased after his mediocre Week 13 game. His best value is just under $10K on DraftStreet and $6.5K on FanDuel. Cruz has been boom or bust all season and should be avoided for cash games.
- Brandon Myers – It’s an extremely risky play but he does have touchdowns in back to back games and was targeted 6 times in Week 13 for 5 catches, 61 yards and a score. He’s in the bottom tier of TE pricing on nearly every site.
- Philip Rivers – Rivers salary rank fluctuates more than almost any quarterback this week. He’s as high as the 7th highest priced QB on DK to the 16th highest priced QB on StarStreet. I’d prefer to take him on StarStreet or DraftStreet as a QB2, but he has GPP appeal on every site.
- Keenan Allen – Allen is one of the safer plays this week and that goes up even more if touchdown monger Eddie Royal sits. Somehow he’s still just $6.5K on FD and $6.8K on DK in Week 14 and that’s a steal.
- Ladarius Green and Antonio Gates – Green may not have had the same 80 receiving yards in Week 13 that he had in Weeks 11 and 12, but he did find the end zone again and the Giants have struggled vs. Tight Ends. His price went up on every site this week, so you won’t find him at the same bargain bin price point as a week ago but he’s still the cheaper between himself and Gates. Gates on the other hand dropped on every site except DraftStreet this week, but still saw 9 targets and caught 5 balls for 40 yards a week ago. Green might be the popular pick so I’d consider taking a chance on Gates in tournaments to play contrarian.
Seattle at San Francisco
| Seattle Seahawks | San Francisco 49ers | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:25PM ET | Candlestick Park | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 2.5 | 41 | 19.25 | -2.5 | 41 | 21.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 28.3 | 2 | 22 | 3 | Offense | 24.8 | 9 | 31 | 7 | |
| Defense | 15.5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | Defense | 16.4 | 3 | 3 | 11 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| San Francisco | 3 | 15 | 7 | 1 | Seattle | 2 | 7 | 3 | 12 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Tate | 72 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 5.0 | Boldin | 96 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 13.0 | |
| Harvin | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Crabtree | 4 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | ||
| Rice | 35 | 4.4 | Manningham | 17 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 0.0 | |||
| Miller | 42 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 8.0 | Davis | 66 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 5.0 | |
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle just flat out embarrassed the Saints on MNF last week but will have to bounce back quickly for a huge game against the 49ers on Sunday. This game has a 41.5 over/under with Seattle as underdogs which may be surprising considering how badly Seattle blew San Francisco out earlier in the year. In that game, Marshawn Lynch found pay dirt twice while rushing for 98 yards on 28 carries. Seattle is averaging 4 less points per game on the road this year and while their offense has been one of the best in the game, they’ve struggled against strong pass rushes that don’t need to blitz. Wilson’s completion percentage drops to under 50% this season when under pressure in 2013. San Francisco has really ramped up their pass rush over the past few weeks, averaging 3.3 sacks per game in that span. 2 of the 49ers three sacks in Week 13 came without blitzing as well.
Lynch could find success on the ground though, and the 49ers aren’t great against the rush. They’ve improved in recent weeks, but are still middle of the pack in terms of FP-allowed on the season.
San Francisco 49ers
Colin Kaepernick has been much improved over the past couple of weeks and has totaled 500 passing yards and 3 pass touchdowns in that time. Unfortunately, he has to face the best pass defense in the NFL on Sunday and his numbers against them earlier this year were not pretty. In Week 2, he managed 87 rushing yards but turned it over three times through the air and threw for just 127 yards. He also hasn’t been quite as dynamic at home this season, likely because they’ve been holding a lead down in all but one of their home games this season. He’s averaging 14 FPPG in 6 home games compared to 18.2 FPPG in 6 games away from Candlestick.
Last weekend Frank Gore was able to find the end zone which was about all the value he provided, and he averaged under 3 yards per carry on 15 touches against the Rams. That makes three consecutive games with less than 50 rushing yards and last weekend Anthony Dixon was handed the ball 8 times in garbage time. I’m not sure if the 49ers decided something after their Week 9 bye about resting Gore, and since that bye week Gore is averaging just 14.25 carries per game compared to 18.25 in Weeks 1-8.
SEA @ SF – Daily Fantasy Relevant
Make this week easier on yourself and just eliminate this game from daily fantasy consideration. There’s very little upside to be had against either of these defenses. Just enjoy this as a smash-mouth, entertaining football game.
Carolina at New Orleans
| Carolina Panthers | New Orleans Saints | |||||||||
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| Sun – 8:30PM ET | Mercedes-Benz Superdome | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 3.5 | 45.5 | 21 | -3.5 | 45.5 | 24.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.8 | 14 | 27 | 9 | Offense | 26.0 | 7 | 3 | 23 | |
| Defense | 13.1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | Defense | 19.2 | 6 | 4 | 16 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New Orleans | 6 | 14 | 8 | 5 | Carolina | 1 | 5 | 4 | 9 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Smith | 94 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 4.0 | Colston | 68 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 7.0 | |
| Lafell | 73 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 7.0 | Stills | 40 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | |
| Ginn Jr. | 4.4 | 5.7 | 4.0 | Moore | 35 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | ||
| Olsen | 74 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 7.0 | Graham | 108 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 9.0 | |
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers have won some really challenging games over the course of their eight game winning streak, but a road win over a divisional rival never comes easy. And when that opponent just got embarrassed on national TV, well they’re going to be a little extra motivated. Carolina should have a huge advantage in the run game, but will have to keep this game close to maintain consistent pressure on the Saints front seven. Unfortunately for daily fantasy purposes, the three headed Panthers running back monster diminishes almost any fantasy value for each of Williams, Stewart and Tolbert. All three are listed as probable for this game.
With the Panthers as 2.5 point underdogs, it’s likely that Cam Newton will be forced to throw upwards of 30 times in this game against a fading secondary. There was a three week span against the Jets, Cowboys and 49ers where NO held three straight QB’s to under 200 yards passing, but in the last two games they’ve allowed 292 yards to Matt Ryan and 310 yards to Russell Wilson with 3 passing touchdowns. Those last two weeks were both without Jabari Greer who was lost for the year following Week 11. Newton should also be able to find success to his tight end, Greg Olsen. Last week, Zach Miller torched the Saints defense with 5 catches for 86 yards and a score.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints have to move on and try to bounce back. Luckily for them, this one’s in the Superdome where they’re averaging 33.16 PPG on the year compared to just 18.86 points on the road. They’ve also yet to lose at home. So, as would be expected, a number of their skill position players have some drastic home/road splits:
- Brees (Home) – 27.8 FPPG, Brees (Road) – 16.6 FPPG
- Thomas (Home) – 12.1 FPPG, Thomas (Road – 12.2 FPPG
- Sproles (Home) – 13.2 FPPG, Sproles (Road) – 6.3 FPPG
- Colston (Home) – 12.0 FPPG, Colston (Road) – 4.6 FPPG
- Stills (Home) – 11.8 FPPG, Stills (Road) – 4.1 FPPG
- Graham (Home) – 16.5 FPPG, Graham (Road) – 17.6 FPPG
Speed guys like Sproles, Colston and Stills love the turf in the Superdome and will create major issues for the Panthers this weekend. The biggest concern for Carolina will be stopping Jimmy Graham though, but fortunately we have a good idea of how the Panthers will match up in coverage against them. They played New England a few weeks back and the similarly talented tight end Rob Gronkowski. Here’s how they covered him in that game according to ProFootballFocus. Luke Kuechly, Quintin Mikell, Melvin White, A.J. Klein and Robert Lester all had Gronk in coverage for 1 target. Thomas Davis was the only Panthers player to have him in coverage on multiple targets. In that game, Gronk was thrown at 7 times for 5 receptions, 59 yards and a score. He was also picked off on that end of game end-zone play that I won’t soon forget. It looks like Graham should see a number of different players in coverage, and should have ample opportunities to impact the game.
CAR @ NO – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Cam Newton – Newton has been great all season long and this secondary for NO is reeling. He’s still $2K less than Manning on FD and $1400 less than Brees. On every other site, Newton is either more expensive or similarly priced to Brees and I’d lean towards Brees there. I also like stacking both QBs in this game in tournaments on 2 QB sites.
- Greg Olsen – The only Panthers receiving option worth handcuffing to Newton is Olsen. He spreads the ball around a ton, but Olsen has 12+ FP in each of his last three. He makes a good cash game play, as he’s pretty consistent, but his ceiling is relatively low.
- Drew Brees – At 85% of the cost of Manning on DraftDay, Brees makes a terrific option there. Headchopper also has him ranked as his #1 bang-for-the-buck QB play on DraftStreet this weekend, and that guy’s pretty good at this daily fantasy thing.
- Darren Sproles – Carolina is allowing the 5th most receiving yards to opposing backs at 47.2 per game and the splits at home for Sproles, as outlined above, are impressive. He’s a dynamic GPP play who can post a huge game, especially in PPR formats. He’s under $7K on DS, $5.2K on DK, and $5K on FD for great values. He might be a little overpriced on SS at $10.4K.
- Jimmy Graham – Graham rounds out the fantasy-relevant list in this game because the one position the Panthers have struggled with is the tight end. Graham is extremely talented and Brees may be sick of throwing the ball outside the numbers to his subpar receiving corps. Look for him to feed Graham early and often in this one and Luke Kuechly won’t be able to slow him down unless he’s allowed to tackle him.
Dallas at Chicago
| Dallas Cowboys | Chicago Bears | |||||||||
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| Mon – 8:40PM ET | Soldier Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 0 | 49.5 | 24.75 | 0 | 49.5 | 24.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 27.4 | 3 | 15 | 27 | Offense | 26.9 | 5 | 6 | 19 | |
| Defense | 25.2 | 22 | 31 | 27 | Defense | 27.7 | 28 | 14 | 32 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Chicago | 8 | 26 | 14 | 25 | Dallas | 31 | 32 | 19 | 27 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Bryant | 115 | 9.5 | 12.5 | 9.0 | Marshall | 124 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 9.0 | |
| Williams | 58 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 6.0 | Jeffery | 118 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 15.0 | |
| Austin | 36 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 5.0 | Bennett | 34 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | |
| Witten | 82 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 3.0 | Bennett | 75 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 5.0 | |
Dallas Cowboys
The Monday night game looks to be filled with fireworks as the Cowboys and Bears do battle in Chicago. Dallas has won back-to-back games but has Philly breathing down their necks in the NFC East playoff battle. Their best matchup against Da Bears might be the running game, where DeMarco Murray is finally getting some extra touches and doing a lot with them. With 14+ fantasy points in each of his last three games and an elite matchup, Murray is surely to be one of the highest owned players this weekend. Here are the last 6 game logs for RB1’s vs. CHI’s run D:
- Week 6 – Brandon Jacobs – 22 RuAtt, 106 RuYd, 2 RuTD
- Week 7 – Alfred Morris – 19 RuAtt, 95 RuYd, 0 RuTD
- Week 9 – Eddie Lacy – 22 RuAtt, 150 RuYd, 1 RuTD
- Week 10 – Reggie Bush – 14 RuAtt, 105 RuYd, 0 RuTD
- Week 11 – Ray Rice – 25 RuAtt, 131 RuYd, 1 RuTD
- Week 12 – Cunningham/Stacy – 13 RuAtt, 196 RuYd, 2 RuTD
- Week 13 – Adrian Peterson – 35 RuAtt, 211 RuYd, 0 RuTD
5 running backs in the last 7 games have totaled 20 or more fantasy points against this rush defense and the problems in their front seven can’t be fixed with a change in scheme, but the return of Major Wright should be a slight boost to their overall run stopping unit.
Their pass coverage has been better of late, but still far from stellar. Romo and company will have to face the 3rd best defense vs. quarterbacks over the last 3 weeks and a top-10 defense vs. quarterbacks over the last 5 weeks. The passing game has also taken a bit of a back seat recently, as the 65% pass play average they boast on the year has dropped to 61% during their last three games. It’s not a huge drop, but Jason Garrett seems to be getting smarter and relying a little less on Romo to carry the entire team. On the outside, Dez Bryant lines up on both sides of the ball so he’ll see a mixture of Tim Jennings and Zackary Bowman. Jennings ranks 47th on PFF’s Cornerback coverage ratings and Bowman ranks 51st, so neither have been terrific and last weekend both of Minnesota’s outside receivers had 70+ receiving yards.
Chicago Bears
Like the Cowboys, the Bears offense has a terrific matchup on Monday night against a Cowboys team that’s allowed at least 20 points in each of their past 5 games. The Bears rush defense ranks dead last on ProFootballFocus, but the Cowboys are just ahead of them as 2nd worst in the NFL. Matt Forte has a terrific matchup but the leader of the Dallas Defense, Sean Lee, is expected to come back in Week 14 which is a huge boost to their rush defense and overall unit. During the three games with Lee out, Dallas allowed an average of 5.8 YPC on 88 rushes for 494 yards, and 5 rush touchdowns. They also gave up 23 receptions for 139 receiving yards and 2 RecTD to opposing backs in that span. Forte does it in both the passing and ground game, and while the return of Lee diminishes his upside a bit, he remains a terrific option for Week 14.
The passing game for Chicago will be led by Josh McCown again this weekend and all eyes will be on Alshon Jeffery after his 12 catch, 249 yard and 2 TD performance in Week 13. Dallas’ secondary is coming off a game where WR2 Andre Holmes was able to go for 136 receiving yards, so they have been vulnerable against WR2’s. Jeffery has been lining up to the right of McCown with Marshall wide left for the majority of snaps over the past 4 weeks, so he’s likely to line up across from Brandon Carr for Dallas. Carr ranks 54th in coverage rating on PFF and is a significantly better matchup than Orlando Scandrick who will hold down the right side of the field and is the 10th best corner in terms of coverage rating on the season. It remains to be seen what Coach Trestman will do, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he moved Marshall to the left of McCown a little more often to get him a better one-on-one matchup and try to get him more involved in Week 14 after Jeffery got nearly all the love in Week 13.
DAL @ CHI – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Tony Romo – A pick em game with a 48 over/under means is a great indicator for targeting Romo. He has a great price tag at $12.7K on DraftStreet, $8.6 on FanDuel and $8.3K on DraftKings. He’s probably still a GPP quarterback only, but would be a somewhat risky cash game option as well.
- DeMarco Murray – Murray has a terrific matchup and has been more involved in the passing game of late which adds to his PPR value. His price has jumped a bit but at $11.7K on FTD, $7.4K on DK and $8K on FD he still has good value for the price point.
- Dez Bryant – He’s a strict GPP play seeing as he has 4 games under 12 FP on the year and will cost you a pretty penny to roster. But he should be able to exploit the Bears secondary and has the upside to be the top receiver this weekend.
- Jason Witten – He’s been a lot less involved in the passing game this season but he does have two 17+ FP performances in his last four games and at $8K on DS and $5.3K on DK he’s a good value.
- Josh McCown – Dallas has been one of the 5 worst defenses vs. QBs on the year and McCown has been terrific in Cutler’s absence. He has 20 or more FP in 3 of the last 5 games and actually could be a strong H2H option this weekend as well as for tournaments. He’s also interesting to pair with Marshall OR Jeffery in GPPs, although as I outlined last weekend, it’s rare that both Marshall and Jeffery have big games in the same week:
| Bears Handcuff | FD | DS | DD | DK | FF | SS | FTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McCown/Marshall | $15,600 | $25,330 | $31,450 | $16,100 | $282,000 | $24,400 | $24,300 |
| McCown/Jeffery | $15,000 | $24,946 | $29,450 | $15,400 | $276,000 | $24,000 | $24,100 |
- Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery – In a tournament, I’d rather take a chance on Marshall this weekend because the popular pick will be Jeffery. Both are safe, high priced options in cash games. They’re both also highly dependent on price point, so if you’re going to handcuff McCown to one then try and judge which sites have the best value for each above.
- Matt Forte – I mentioned it’s not ideal that Sean Lee is back for Dallas but the matchup is still good for Forte who has terrific PPR value. On the full point PPR sites, he’s a good option at $8.1K on DK, but is a little overpriced on SS and DD.