NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 16 - Page 3
Dallas at Washington
| Dallas Cowboys | Washington Redskins | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | FedExField | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -3 | 53.5 | 28.25 | 3 | 53.5 | 25.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 28.1 | 4 | 16 | 23 | Offense | 21.8 | 23 | 15 | 3 | |
| Defense | 27.5 | 26 | 32 | 28 | Defense | 31.0 | 32 | 21 | 17 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Washington | 21 | 30 | 20 | 26 | Dallas | 32 | 32 | 26 | 29 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Bryant | 136 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 17.0 | Garcon | 155 | 11.0 | 11.3 | 10.0 | |
| Williams | 66 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.0 | Morgan | |||||
| Austin | 44 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 4.0 | Robinson | 32 | 2.3 | 5.0 | 7.0 | |
| Witten | 93 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 8.0 | Reed | 59 | 6.6 | |||
Washington Redskins
Washington comes into this one with nothing to play for, except the opportunity to end the season of a divisional rival. But that possibility weighs heavily on players, and they relish the opportunity to make the Cowboys offseason as long as theirs is likely to be. The Redskins will send Kirk Cousins out for his second consecutive start against a Dallas secondary that has been beaten up and embarrassed by Josh McCown and Matt Flynn in back-to-back weeks. The two averaged 324 passing yards and 4 PaTD against the Cowboys and Dallas ranks 2nd worst in FPPG-allowed to QBs over the last 3 weeks and 4th worst over the last 5 weeks. Cousins threw for 381 and 3 scores in his first start this season, again targeting Pierre Garcon in bulk. In Cousins 2 career starts, Garcon has been thrown at 22 times. But despite the 10 throws at Garcon last week, Cousins still managed to include a number of other options and spread it out pretty well. He threw 9 balls towards Santana Moss, who had his best game in a long time with 8 grabs for 64 yards and a score. He threw it towards Aldrick Robinson 7 times who was a yard shy of 100 receiving yards. And he targeted Logan Paulsen 7 times, though he only caught 3 for 21 yards.
The rushing attack for Washington could also be in for a great matchup, as the Cowboys have allowed 100 or more rushing yards to 5 of the last 6 RB1’s they have faced. They rank 3rd worst in FPPG-allowed over the last 3 and 5 weeks to running backs and have just been abysmal against any type of rushing attack, especially without Sean Lee who was put on IR this weekend. The loss of Lee all but guarantees that the Boys will be wide open up the middle for Alfred Morris, who had 16 carries for 81 yards and a score in the matchup earlier this year vs. Dallas. PFF has Dallas’ rush defense rated out as the third worst in the NFL, just behind Washington’s, and losing some of their best personnel only makes them more vulnerable.
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is in a must-win game to keep their playoff hopes alive against divisional rival Washington. This game has a ridiculous 53.5 over/under with just a 2.5 point spread despite the Redskins being just 3-11 on the season so you should be thinking shootout with both teams putting their feet on the gas. The Redskins pass coverage ratings on PFF are 3rd worst in the NFL so there is no excuse for Tony Romo to not get things going in this one. They’ve allowed at least 200 yards and a passing touchdown in each of their last four games but Romo did manage just 170 yards and 1 score in the matchup with Washington earlier this season. With a game during December, the clutch conversation with Romo has to be mentioned and his collapse in Washington a year ago can’t be forgotten. The matchup is prime, but the struggles in clutch games combined with last week’s collapse create a lot of question marks surrounding this offense. Despite that, Dez Bryant had a monster game against Green Bay while hauling in 11 balls for 153 yards and a score. Dez now has 4 100+ yard games on the season and in those games, Romo has thrown for 300+ yards in all of them but one where he had 298 yards. The reason for mentioning this is that these two make a terrific risk/reward duo in tournaments considering that one never seems to go off without the other. One last note, Terrance Williams is expected to miss Sunday’s game, opening the door for Miles Austin to play on every down.
The Cowboys have also recommitted to the rush in recent weeks and it’s produced big fantasy lines for DeMarco Murray. He’s had at least 16 fantasy points in each of his last 3 games, including a 23 and 30 point effort in that span. The Redskins rank 7th worst vs. RBs over the last 5 weeks for FPPG allowed and 3rd worst over the last 3 weeks, so there will be room for Murray to run in this one. Their biggest struggles have come inside the red zone though, and three of the last four backs to face WAS have been held under 40 total rushing yards. 2 of those three have multi-TD efforts though. Murray has 100+ yard rushing in each of his last two games so it will be interesting to see which side bends in this one, but his chances at finding pay dirt are high.
WAS @ DAL – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Alfred Morris – I didn’t expect to see Alfred Morris fall to the 18th highest priced RB on average in any week, but that’s where he landed in Week 16. He’s a good head to head play but his lack of PPR value takes him out of GPP play for the most part on full point PPR sites like DD, DK and SS. He is dirt cheap on FanDuel though at $6K.
- Pierre Garcon and Santana Moss – Garcon’s been priced up pretty good on most sites but makes for a tremendous value at $6K on DraftKings. With their full point PPR scoring, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him as one of the highest owned WRs in this weekend’s main event. Santana Moss could be your blue-light special in GPPs this weekend and despite a good Week 15 he’s still minimum priced at $3K on DK and just $4.8K on FD, $5.4K on DS, and $5K on DD.
- Tony Romo – Romo’s price is up there in the Top-5 for QBs on most sites but given the matchup that seems appropriate. He’s a GPP option only but could be a difference maker given the high over/under in the plethora of major events taking place this weekend.
- DeMarco Murray – Murray has become, on average, a top-5 priced running back which definitely takes away from some of his appeal this weekend. It’s a great matchup though and his recent stat lines can’t be denied. Just know that you’ll be paying a steep tag across the board for him.
- Dez Bryant and Miles Austin – We’ll start with Miles because with T-Will out his value skyrockets. Don’t forget how talented he once was and how bad the Redskins secondary can be. Then look at his prices:
AUSTIN: $4.5K FD, $2.5K DS, $3K DK, $6.2K DD, $7.4K SS, $6.3K FTD, $41K FF
That’s bottom of the barrel pricing, especially on DraftStreet where he’s a mere 2.5% of your 100K cap. For Dez, he needs to be handcuffed with Romo in tournaments since one doesn’t go off very often without the other having a huge game. Here’s the price of that handcuff:
| Handcuff | FD | DS | DD | DK | FF | SS | FTD |
| Romo/Dez | $17,800 | $27,232 | $37,150 | $15,200 | $286,700 | $26,300 | $25,600 |
- Jason Witten – He hasn’t been as involved in the offense as years past, but with Williams out he could also see an uptick in targets. His best value is at StarStreet at just $9.7K
New Orleans at Carolina
| New Orleans Saints | Carolina Panthers | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Bank of America Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 3 | 47 | 22 | -3 | 47 | 25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.6 | 10 | 2 | 26 | Offense | 23.4 | 17 | 28 | 8 | |
| Defense | 19.3 | 5 | 3 | 21 | Defense | 14.9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Carolina | 2 | 4 | 3 | 16 | New Orleans | 5 | 12 | 5 | 9 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Colston | 94 | 7.3 | 11.0 | 13.0 | Smith | 107 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 5.0 | |
| Stills | 46 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | Lafell | 81 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 4.0 | |
| Moore | 46 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 7.0 | Ginn Jr. | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | ||
| Graham | 125 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 6.0 | Olsen | 94 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 8.0 | |
New Orleans Saints
In a matchup that we saw very recently, the Saints will head to Carolina to take on the Panthers. In the game a few weeks back, New Orleans dominated the Panthers with a 31-13 route. Brees threw for 313 and 4 TDs in that one, but the fact that they were at home has started to play an increasingly important role in the relevancy of Saints offensive options. After another embarrassing road performance in Week 15, it’s become hard to trust the New Orleans playmakers in any environment other than the SuperDome. Sure Brees threw for 363 yards but he was playing catch up and the Saints only mustered 16 points. It’s also pretty unlikely that Brees has another monster performance here, considering the Panthers have only allowed 1 multi-TD game to a QB all season (Brees in Week 14). Carolina’s secondary rates as a top-10 defense in terms of pass coverage on PFF and they do a terrific job of controlling the time of possession, specifically at home. With that said, there’s still a lot we can take away from that Week 14 game that can help understand what to expect in this one. First, the Panthers gave up 125 yards and 2 scores to Marques Colston. The majority of that came with Captain Munnerlyn in coverage, as he was thrown at 5 times for 4 Colston Receptions and 59 receiving yards of the 125. Against Jimmy Graham, the Panthers mostly had Luke Kuechly and Drayton Florence in coverage, and each allowed Graham to find pay dirt despite him only going for 6 catches and 58 yards. Both of those matchups were exploited by Brees and both matchups should be similar for this Week 16 game.
The rushing attack of the Saints was an absolute joke against the Rams and Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles were only able to have some value on PPR sites as the Saints tried to pass their way back into the game and they had 8 and 7 receptions respectively. Both continue to be some of the most highly targeted backs in the NFL but the Panthers linebackers are really good, and it’s hard to imagine them finding a lot of space in the screen game. Only Shane Vereen and Frank Summers have had more than 40 receiving yards out of the backfield against the Panthers and only Vereen, Brian Leonard and Jacquizz Rodgers have more than 5 receptions against CAR.
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers will look to avenge that embarrassing divisional loss and bounced back nicely by taking care of an inferior Jets team in Week 15. The weaknesses that have plagued the Saints at times this season are creeping back up, after Zac Stacy burst out for 133 rushing yards last weekend. Luckily in this matchup, for fantasy owners, the Panthers have a clear cut RB1 to rely on in a great matchup. DeAngelo Williams had 80 rushing and 80 receiving yards in Week 15 and found the end zone. Carolina knows that to win this game, they’ll need to control the clock and establish the running game which means a heavy dose of touches for DeAngelo in the backfield. Last season these two teams met in Week 17 and DeAngelo had emerged as the featured back with Stewart going down. In that game Williams ran for 210 yards and 2 scores. The Saints defense is much improved but their front seven is still relatively soft and Williams has the tools to beat them. If the Panthers can establish a lead, look for a monster day from him.
The passing game is always intriguing with Cam Newton at the helm, but he has just 2 total touchdowns over the last two weeks and will need more than that to justify a high price tag for daily fantasy purposes. The good news is the Saints just allowed Kellen Clemens to throw for 2 scores and Newton is obviously much more talented than Kellen. There’s not a whole lot to say about this passing game though, as the receiving options are all relatively consistent with low ceilings. Steve Smith has yet to go over 16 fantasy points all season and Greg Olsen’s best game was a 17 point effort. Neither have the upside to win tournaments but both seem to consistently produce in the 5-6 receptions for 75 yard range.
NO @ CAR – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Drew Brees – There’s only one site where Brees could be considered in cash games, in my eyes, and that’s at $8100 on DraftKings. That prices him as the 5th highest QB and he’s the 2nd best QB in the NFL right now for fantasy value overall. He remains a GPP option on all sites though, and the best thing for Brees is that this game is meaningful and you won’t have to worry about him taking a seat.
- Marques Colston – Colston’s huge game against the Panthers was followed up by an 8 reception, 92 yards and 1 TD game vs. STL last week. $6200 on FanDuel is still really cheap and $6000 on DK is pretty strong value as well, but he is notoriously inconsistent and should be a tournament play only.
- Jimmy Graham – You know you’ll be paying the highest price tag for a tight end this week if you take Graham, but there are definitely question marks surrounding this entire team on the road. He’s relevant, but his ceiling might be slightly reduced whenever the Saints leave New Orleans.
- Cam Newton – I was a bit surprised to see his price go up $700 on DK, but he was so underpriced a week ago that it probably had to happen. He dropped or stayed about the same on nearly every other site though, and is priced as a Top-10 QB on every site except FD where he’s 6th and DD where he’s 10th. He’s a good GPP or H2H play on all sites, though.
- DeAngelo Williams – Williams is a GPP blue light special, whose priced in the 23-25 range on 5 of the 7 sites this weekend for RBs. On FanDuel he’s 27th which is real solid for $5700 and on DraftDay he’s 20th, which might be overpriced but his PPR value could account for that. Far and away his best prices though are at just under $5K on DK and $9.3K on FTD
- Greg Olsen – A cash game play only, Olsen doesn’t have enough upside to justify trust in GPPs. His price tag is top-8 tight end across the board but not high enough to really eat up a high percentage of the salary cap so he can be a nice piece on a strong cash game lineup.
Tampa Bay at St. Louis
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | St. Louis Rams | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Edward Jones Dome | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 5.5 | 42.5 | 18.5 | -5.5 | 42.5 | 24 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.4 | 28 | 32 | 22 | Offense | 22.6 | 20 | 27 | 16 | |
| Defense | 23.1 | 13 | 15 | 15 | Defense | 23.1 | 13 | 27 | 11 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| St. Louis | 11 | 29 | 19 | 3 | Tampa Bay | 28 | 5 | 15 | 17 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Jackson | 137 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 8.0 | Austin | 69 | 4.8 | 5.0 | ||
| Underwood | 36 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 5.0 | Givens | 76 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 | |
| Owusu | 15 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 5.0 | Pettis | 59 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 4.0 | |
| Wright | 60 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 9.0 | Cook | 74 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 1.0 | |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This game is going to be tough to figure out, as neither team has anything left to play for but both should be rolling out their best healthy players. There is going to be some risk to trusting Vincent Jackson in this one, especially considering he has a minor injury concern and hasn’t practiced much this week. With that said, there’s still a lot to like about the matchup for Jackson and the Buccs passing game. Jackson has been quieter of late, but still has a receiving TD in each of his last two and is the type of player who can explode at any given moment. This might be that moment, as the Rams have allowed at least 90 receiving yards to the last 5 WR1’s they’ve faced. Take a look at the game logs in that span:
- Week 10 – T.Y. Hilton – 7 Rec, 130 RecYd, 0 RecTD, 16.5 FP
- Week 12 – Brandon Marshall – 10 Rec, 117 RecYd, 1 RecTD, 22.7 FP
- Week 13 – Anquan Boldin – 9 Rec, 98 RecYd, 0 RecTD, 14.3 FP
- Week 14 – Larry Fitzgerald – 12 Rec, 96 RecYd, 1 RecTD, 21.6 FP
- Week 15 – Marques Colston – 8 Rec, 92 RecYd, 1 RecTD, 19.2 FP
Similarly in that span, 3 of the 5 opposing QBs have posted over 300 yards passing and none have thrown for less than 269. The only strength has been that they’ve only allowed 6 passing touchdowns in that 5 game span, but they are bending heavily on defense and when you allow that many yards it can be difficult to keep teams out of the end zone for long. One of the biggest strengths of the Rams defense has also been their pass rush which ranks 5th best in the NFL on PFF. Glennon has really struggled under pressure this season, posting a QBR of just 60 when under heat and 75 when blitzed. The Buccs O-line will need to keep the Rams vicious pass rush unit away from him, but if they can do so he might have a huge game.
St. Louis Rams
The Rams dominated the Saints in Week 15 in impressive fashion and their leader Kellen Clemens had another solid ‘game-manager’ type effort, going for 158 yards and 2 TDs. It’s unclear if Tavon Austin will be able to suit up for this one, but if he sits again the bulk of the targets will go to Pettis, Bailey and Givens. Still the Rams don’t throw often and no receiver has more than 6 targets in a game in each of STL’s last two weeks. This eliminates most of their passing threats from fantasy relevancy, despite an above average matchup in Week 16 against the Buccaneers secondary.
The better place for the Rams to start will be on the ground, where Zac Stacy had his first 100 yard game since Week 9 against the Saints in Week 15. Stacy broke for 133 yards and a score and again showed why the Rams are so excited about his future as their featured back. It will be uphill sledding in this one though, and Tampa has allowed just 1 rushing touchdown since Week 8. In that time, 3 backs have gone over 80 yards but none have rushed for over 100 and only 2 have gone for over 100 yards all season. This front seven can be beaten, and PFF has them rated as bottom-10 in the NFL, but the opponent stats just haven’t been all that solid against them this season and they’ve allowed the 9th fewest FPPG to opposing backs over the last 5 weeks and 6th fewest over the last 3 weeks.
TB @ STL – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Mike Glennon – It will come down to whether or not he can stay away from pressure in this one. If he does, he could be a huge value QB at just $6.3K on FD, $5.2K on DK and a ridiculous $9.2K on DS. His ceiling isn’t all that high, but on DraftKings specifically you don’t necessarily need a 30 point game from your QB to win events.
- Vincent Jackson – His price went up across the board this week, but the matchup is stellar for Vjax on the outside. No one in the Rams secondary can slow him down and at $6.2K on DK he’s a steal for tournaments with the upside of 30+ FP. He’s also a decent value at $11.6K on DS, but again should be considered in large field events only.
- Tim Wright – The Rams have been hit or miss vs. TE’s but Wright had a huge game in Week 15 with 7 catches for 82 yards and a score. He’s just $5.8K on DS and $5.2K on FD, which make for his best value spots.
- Zac Stacy – I don’t love any of the St. Louis options this week, but Stacy is the most reliable and the Buccs rushing defense could be more vulnerable than the stats would reflect. Still, he’s a price-specific play only and he has good value at FTD for $10.7K, DK for $6.2K and FD for $7.4K