NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 8
Welcome to the RotoGrinders Weekly NFL Grind Down Article. There’s no better place to start your research for NFL action in the week ahead than the Grind Down. Each week, we break down every game in an effort to better prepare you when building your daily fantasy lineups.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Carolina at Tampa Bay
| Carolina Panthers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | |||||||||
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| Thurs – 8:25PM ET | Raymond James Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -6 | 40 | 23 | 6 | 40 | 17 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.2 | 15 | 28 | 7 | Offense | 14.5 | 31 | 29 | 20 | |
| Defense | 13.8 | 2 | 5 | 4 | Defense | 22.0 | 13 | 18 | 5 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tampa Bay | 21 | 12 | 14 | 18 | Carolina | 1 | 15 | 5 | 10 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Smith | 48 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 6.0 | Jackson | 77 | 12.8 | 18.0 | 22.0 | |
| Lafell | 31 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 4.0 | Williams | 34 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | |
| Ginn Jr. | 3.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | Shepard | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Olsen | 38 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 4.0 | Wright | 20 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 3.0 | |
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers have won back-to-back games over the Rams and Vikings to move to .500 on the season. Their defense has been much improved from last year’s team, and rank 2nd in points allowed at just 13.8 per game. They’re forcing over 2 turnovers per game on the season, and have picked off the opposing QB in each of their last 5 games. Considering the mass of injuries the Panthers have sustained in their secondary, the #5 ranked pass defense has been a huge surprise.
Their offense has been middle of the pack, scoring 23.2 points per game but has gone over 30 points in each of their 3 wins this season. The bread and butter continues to be relying on the run game, and the Panthers rank 3rd in rush attempts on the year with 33.5 per game.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Consistency has been an issue for Cam Newton, as he has only hit the 16 fantasy point marker in 2 of his games, but his ceiling is as high as any QBs. The Buccaneers rank 21st against opposing quarterbacks and Cam can be considered a GPP play only for Thursday night start times.
- RB – This may be DeAngelo Williams last week with a large majority of the touches, as Jonathan Stewart could return for Week 9. All you need to do is look at his rush yards game log though to see that he’s been trending downwards since Carolina’s bye week.
PRE-BYE WEEK: Wk1 – 86 yds, Wk2 – 85 yds, Wk3 – 120 yds.
POST-BYE WEEK: Wk5 – 39 yds, Wk6 – 64 yds, Wk7 – 40 yds.
- WR – Steve Smith continues to be the only receiver with any reliability for the Panthers, but even that is slipping. He’s a lock for 4-5 catches minimum but hasn’t topped 70 yards all season. Brandon Lafell is next in line, seeing 4 targets each of the last 2 weeks after a 9 target Week 5 game. Lafell will do all of his damage in the middle of the field, and 11 of his 18 receptions this season have come between their own 20 and 50 yard line. He’s only caught one ball in the red zone.
- TE – Olsen is probably Newton’s favorite target, seeing 23.2% of total pass attempts thrown his way. He’s also a favorite option in the red zone, getting 21% of red zone targets for the Panthers. He’s been dealing with an injury recently but is listed as probable for this game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mounting injuries continue to dismantle the Buccs as Doug Martin is expected to at least miss significant time with a shoulder injury. They’re 0-6 on the season and now starting a rookie QB/RB tandem with Glennon and Mike James. Their offense has been abysmal and hasn’t scored more than 23 points all season long. They rank 2nd to last in the NFL with just 14.5 PPG.
The defense is better, ranking 13th in the NFL at 22 PPG-allowed and an impressive 5th in rushing yards allowed. But the key injury to watch here is free safety Dashon Goldson who exited the game vs. Atlanta on the 2nd play of last weeks tilt and clearly wasn’t the same after he returned. Long time fantasy dud Harry Douglas then torched the Bucs secondary. Goldson isn’t expected to play Thursday night, and will not having the All-Pro FS should leave some open space for deep threats Brandon Lafell and Ted Ginn Jr.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Glennon has now thrown over 40 pass attempts in each of his first 3 starts. Unfortunately, the large number of attempts has yet to lead to an explosive game as his highest PaYd total was 273 vs. Philadelphia. The Panthers are 7th in sacks per game at 3.2 and should be coming after the rookie early and often. They’re also #1 in FPPG-allowed to QBs, so there’s not a whole lot of reasons to target Glennon.
- RB – Mike James will try and step in for the Muscle Hamster and had 14 carries for 45 yards filling in last weekend against Atlanta. Also interesting was the 3 receptions he posted in the small sample size. If he proves he can be a PPR back then he adds a ton of value on sites like DraftKings, StarStreet, DraftDay and FanThrowDown. He’s a tremendous GPP play this week.
- WR – Vincent Jackson was targeted an absurd 22 times in Week 7, and is averaging nearly 16 per game with Glennon at the helm. Each of his 4 TD receptions have come in the last 2 weeks and it’s safe to say he’s hot. This might be a good spot to fade him, as his price tag has sky-rocketed and the matchup is extremely challenging. WR2 Mike Williams is questionable but seemed to suffer a setback last weekend. If he sits, Tiquan Underwood and Russel Shepard should see some more looks.
- TE – Carolina has been strong against opposing tight ends, allowing just one big game to Kyle Rudolph back in Week 6. The Bucs TE situation is murky after young TE Tim Wright looked promising, but his targets dropped from 9 in Week 6 to just 3 in Week 7.
Dallas at Detroit
| Dallas Cowboys | Detroit Lions | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Ford Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 3 | 51 | 24 | -3 | 51 | 27 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 28.6 | 3 | 8 | 24 | Offense | 26.6 | 8 | 5 | 21 | |
| Defense | 22.1 | 16 | 30 | 13 | Defense | 23.9 | 21 | 28 | 23 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Detroit | 16 | 20 | 26 | 17 | Dallas | 31 | 22 | 17 | 30 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Bryant | 70 | 10.0 | 11.3 | 16.0 | Johnson | 63 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 15.0 | |
| Williams | 28 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 7.0 | Durham | 40 | 5.7 | 9.7 | 8.0 | |
| Beasley | 21 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 7.0 | Broyles | 12 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 4.0 | |
| Witten | 54 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 6.0 | Pettigrew | 35 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 7.0 | |
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys moved to 4-3 following last week’s sloppy win against the Eagles. They are now 3-1 against division opponents and just 1-2 against all other competition. Their defense has been mediocre, allowing 22 PPG but ranking 30th against the pass. They’ve actually allowed 3 quarterbacks to throw for over 400 yards in a game so far this season (Philip Rivers and the Manning Brothers). Their pass defense has been opportunistic though, forcing an INT in each of their last 4 games. The strongest aspect of the Dallas D is their rush defense, who has yet to allow a 100 yard rusher all season and ranks 13th overall against the run. Their rush defense and their ability to pressure the quarterback are both diminished heavily though as Demarcus Ware continues to miss time. He’s unlikely to play again this weekend.
Their offense has been a different story, ranking 3rd in the NFL in PPG at just over 28. The status of DeMarco Murray remains in question as he is practicing again this week but will likely be a game-time decision on Sunday. Joseph Randle would fill in again as the featured back if Murray can’t go. Regardless, it’s the Cowboys passing game that has been carrying their offense in 2013. Their Pass-O ranks 8th in the NFL compared to just 24th in rushing offense.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Given the struggles of the Detroit secondary, Romo slides in as one of the best GPP plays of the week at QB. He has a Pass TD in every game this season and appears to be comfortable with new WR2 option Terrance Williams.
- RB – If Randle gets the start, he looks like a tremendous value play again this weekend. The Lions rank 22nd against opposing running backs and Randle got 19 touches in Week 7 and posted 3 receptions. For a low price tag, he’ll get plenty of opportunities to cover value.
- WR – Terrance Williams has emerged as a solid option for Romo, seeing 7 targets last week and snagging his 3rd TD in as many games. Dez Bryant is still the guy though, averaging 10 targets per game and 6 receptions. Detroit ranks 22nd against WR1’s, but 7th against 2nd WRs on the season, so paying up for Dez seems like the better play in this game. In injury news, Miles Austin could sit for awhile to ‘rest’, but he had been a non-factor since returning in Week 6 anyways.
- TE – Witten has struggled in the past 2 weeks, accounting for just 75 total yards on 7 catches. The Lions rank 2nd to last against TE’s, but have allowed just 1 TD reception to an opposing TE (which came last week vs. Tyler Eifert). He remains a PPR threat, but his upside has been severely limited so far this season.
Detroit Lions
The Lions are very similar to the Cowboys in that they rely on scoring a lot of points behind a strong passing game. They rank 5th in the NFL in passing yards per game and have posted a passing TD in each of their first 7 games. Their rush attack has been less spectacular, ranking 21st in the league but Reggie Bush and Joique Bell are both extremely efficient pass catching backs so those numbers aren’t truly indicative of how the Detroit backs are used. In terms of injuries/news, the Lions released long time TE Tony Scheffler this week due in most part to the emergence of rookie TE (and nephew of one of my favorite Patriots’ TE’s) Joseph Fauria.
Their defense started out well but has fallen back to earth over the last month or so, allowing 4 of 6 opposing QBs to throw for over 300 yards against with 3 multi-TD games. They’ve been run on heavily by talented feature backs such as Adrian Peterson, Alfred Morris, Matt Forte and Eddie Lacy, but have held their own against weaker rushing offenses like the Browns, Bengals and Cardinals. It’s safe to say their rush D is exploitable but not soft.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Stafford has 5 multi-TD games this season and having Calvin Johnson back at close to 100% makes him an infinitely better player. His 11.9 yards per pass attempt average is good for 9th best in the NFL and Dallas has allowed 3-400 yard passers in 2013. All this makes Stafford a great GPP or H2H play at home this weekend.
- RB – Reggie Bush continues to provide value as a PPR back, catching at least 3 balls in every game this season. He hasn’t been included much in red zone sets though, having been targeted or handed the ball in just 16 of the Lions 82 red zone plays this year. The lack of red zone involvement combined with his home run capability make him a GPP-play only.
- WR – Megatron looked healthy as he reeled in 2 TDs and was the highest scoring WR in Week 7. The Cowboys haven’t allowed a 100 yard receiver since Week One (where they allowed Nicks/Cruz/Randle to all go for 100+), but Calvin isn’t just another wideout. He’s a strong play in any format. Other than Calvin, consider Kris Durham as a top tier value play. He’s been targeted 8, 13 and 8 times in the last 3 weeks and the Cowboys rank 30th in the NFL against WR #2’s.
- TE – The release of Scheffler only means the Lions feel even better about Red Zone threat Joseph Fauria. Fauria is 5th in the league with 8 red zone targets in 2013. But he still remains an option for the Lions only in 2 TE sets, as Brandon Pettigrew took 96% of snaps last week (compared to 40% for Fauria). Pettigrew has limited upside, maxing out at 60 yards receiving and 4-5 grabs.
NY Giants at Philadelphia
| New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Lincoln Financial Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 6 | 52.5 | 23.25 | -6 | 52.5 | 29.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.0 | 27 | 10 | 31 | Offense | 24.1 | 12 | 11 | 1 | |
| Defense | 30.9 | 31 | 20 | 21 | Defense | 28.0 | 26 | 31 | 12 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Philadelphia | 30 | 13 | 32 | 9 | NY Giants | 28 | 18 | 21 | 28 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Cruz | 67 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 7.0 | Jackson | 64 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 8.0 | |
| Nicks | 56 | 7.9 | 10.0 | 10.0 | Cooper | 32 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 7.0 | |
| Randle | 46 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 3.0 | Avant | 47 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 12.0 | |
| Myers | 33 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | Ertz | 22 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 5.0 | |
New York Giants
The Giants won their first game of the season on Monday Night Football and while their first win might be great news for local G-Men fans/strip club frequenters it still doesn’t mean they’re back on track. It was a step forward when Eli made it through 60 minutes without an INT, but two huge drops from Cruz/Nicks really detracted from what could have been a much bigger fantasy day. Overall the Giants rank 28th in scoring offense and 31st in rush offense, which isn’t surprising given the plethora of injuries to their backfield. Brandon Jacobs is very questionable again this weekend and if he doesn’t go, you’re likely to see another mixture of Peyton Hillis and Michael Cox.
Their defense on paper looks worse than the offense, ranking 2nd to last in the NFL at 30.9 PPG-allowed. But it’s been the heavy dose of offensive turnovers that’s put this D in many bad spots throughout the year. In fact, they’ve only allowed 1 QB to individually throw for over 300 yards on the season and that was Peyton Manning for 307 back in Week 2 (Foles/Vick combined for 302 in Week 5). Corey Webster also returned to the mix on Monday, which is a big upgrade for their pass defense.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Eli Manning gets the 30th ranked defense against QBs, and went for 334 yards with 2 TDs and 3 INTs against the Eagles earlier this season. His turnover issues have made him a fantasy disaster this season, but his upside remains prevalent.
- RB – Peyton Hillis found the end zone to provide some good value last week, but more importantly he caught 5 balls out of the backfield for 45 yards. If Jacobs sits, Hillis may have some surprising PPR upside.
- WR – Deciding between Cruz, Nicks and now Randle can be a challenge. Here’s the breakdown for the last 3 weeks:
Week 5: CRUZ 5-48-0, NICKS 9-142-0, RANDLE 6-96-2
Week 6: CRUZ 4-68-0, NICKS 4-70-0, RANDLE 3-75-1
Week 7: CRUZ 5-50-0, NICKS 2-28-0, RANDLE 3-40-1
At least of late, Randle has had the highest ceiling of the 3.
- TE – Brandon Myers was once part of this passing attack, but has totaled just 4 catches for 50 yards over the last 4 weeks combined.
Philadelphia Eagles
At 3-4 the Eagles are still very alive in the NFC East heading into this weekends game against the division rival Giants. The offense that was once the talk of the town sputtered in Week 7 but is still ranked #1 in rush yards and 11th in passing yards. They’re 6 point home favorites in a game projected with the 2nd highest over/under of the weekend.
Defensively for the Eagles, the ‘run as many plays as humanly possible’ offense has left their defense reeling. They rank 26th in points allowed per game and dead last in passing yards allowed. Tony Romo 317 yards passing on Sunday marked the 5th time an opposing QB has thrown for over 300 yards vs. the Eagles in just 7 games. They’ve also had at least 1 opponent wideout go for over 80 yards receiving in every game so far this season, and 5 100 yard receivers against overall. Their rush D has been better, having not allowed a 100 yard rusher on the season and only 1 rusher over 80 yards (Jamaal Charles for 92 yards in Week 2).
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – The Giants rank 28th against opposing quarterbacks and Vick had nearly 80 rush yards against them in the earlier matchup before getting knocked out. I’m struggling to find the exact number, but I do worry that Vick seems to get injured every time he plays the Giants.
- RB – LeSean McCoy had his worst game of the season last week vs. Dallas, but still managed 6 receptions to help his final output. Last time vs. NYG, McCoy had just 46 rush yards but found the end zone and also caught 6 balls. He seems like a safe H2H play this weekend.
- WR – DeSean Jackson continues to be hit or miss, but still has 3 100+ yard receiving games this season (2.5 of which came with Vick). He’s also been targeted 7 times in the red zone. Riley Cooper has been great each of the last 2 weeks, but never caught more than 2 balls with Vick operating as the quarterback. The loss of Foles might mean the return to normalcy for Cooper.
- TE – Zach Ertz seemed to be surpassing Brent Celek by all accounts until last weekend when Ertz saw just 19% of snaps, compared to 69% for Celek. This is a situation to avoid right now, despite the great matchup against the 28th ranked defense vs. Tight Ends.
Cleveland at Kansas City
| Cleveland Browns | Kansas City Chiefs | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Arrowhead Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 7 | 39.5 | 16.25 | -7 | 39.5 | 23.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.7 | 26 | 19 | 23 | Offense | 24.1 | 12 | 26 | 12 | |
| Defense | 22.3 | 17 | 7 | 9 | Defense | 11.6 | 1 | 3 | 20 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Kansas City | 5 | 2 | 11 | 1 | Cleveland | 12 | 21 | 9 | 21 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Gordon | 49 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 6.0 | Bowe | 44 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 9.0 | |
| Little | 52 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 9.0 | Avery | 38 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 4.0 | |
| Bess | 48 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 6.0 | McCluster | 30 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 5.0 | |
| Cameron | 62 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 9.0 | McGrath | 24 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | |
Cleveland Browns
There’s not a whole lot of good with this Cleveland team, but they are 3-4 on the season. They head to KC as 7 point underdogs on the road in a game with the lowest over/under of the weekend at just 39.5 points. QB Brandon Weeden is expected to miss the game and Jason Campbell has been named the Week 8 starter, which isn’t great news for anyone hoping to target Browns QBs. Their offense ranks 26th in the NFL at just 18.7 points per game and now draw the league’s #1 defense.
Defensively, the Browns are middle of the pack in points allowed but Top-10 in both pass yards and rush yards against. They’ve yet to allow a 300 yard passer, including holding Aaron Rodgers and Matt Stafford to an average of 250 PaYd. Those two did manage to total 7 TD passes though. They’ve also prevented any opposing running back to top the 100 yard marker. Also notable is Cleveland’s red zone defense which has been outstanding, allowing a league-best 22% TD-rate inside their own 20 yard line.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Jason Campbell is not fantasy relevant. The Chiefs are averaging a lead leading 5.1 sacks per game and should have no trouble getting after Campbell.
- RB – McGahee and Ogbonnaya continue to split snaps, and neither present much value here.
- WR – Josh Gordon might have some upside here. WR1’s have posted over 80 receiving yards in all but one game this season against Kansas City. That would be only as a GPP play though.
- TE – Jordan Cameron found the end-zone again last week, but the most receiving yards the Chiefs have allowed to opposing TE’s all season is 43. Not a great matchup.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs head into Sunday’s game at 7-0, led by their outstanding defense. They’re allowing a league low 11.6 points per game and rank 3rd in pass yards allowed. They have yet to allow a single QB to throw for multiple touchdowns and outside of a 158 yard explosion allowed to LeSean McCoy, their rush defense hasn’t allowed any single player to go over 60 yards. With that said, their schedule has been soft and they’ve feasted on the likes of Blaine Gabbert, Eli Manning, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Terrelle Pryor and Case Keenum. Luckily this week, it’s Jason Campbell starting under center for the opposition.
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs rely heavily on Jamaal Charles although the run to pass ratio is closer than you might expect. They pass on about 55% of plays compared to 45% rushing. Unfortunately, they rank 6th worst in the NFL in yards per pass attempt at just 5.9 yards. This seems to be a trend in Andy Reid’s offenses, as last years Eagles team averages just 6.1 yards per attempt. I wouldn’t expect much to change here, as the Chiefs will likely proceed cautiously with their offense and let their D do the heavy lifting.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Alex Smith has been a great ‘game-manager’ this season but his daily fantasy value hasn’t been there. He has yet to throw for 300 yards in a game and hasn’t tossed a TD pass in any of the last 3 weeks.
- RB – Cleveland has struggled a bit against the run, but have faced some of the best RBs in the league this season and still haven’t allowed a 100 yard rusher. Jamaal Charles is a safe play, but his upside might be lower than usual
Ray Rice: 13 att, 36 yards
Adrian Peterson: 25 att, 88 yards
Reggie Bush: 17 att, 78 yards
Eddie Lacy: 22 att, 82 yards
- WR – The Browns are strong against the pass and Joe Haden has allowed opposing WR’s to just 1 TD reception all season (Jordy Nelson last week). He might be the best CB in the league and Dwayne Bowe should be shut down all day. Cleveland does rank 18th against WR2’s, and Jarrett Boykin tore them apart last weekend. Consider Donnie Avery as an upside/home-run hitter play.
- TE – Sean McGrath had some value for a few weeks, but has seen just 2 targets over the last 2 weeks and is no longer a fantasy option.