NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week Ten
Welcome to the RotoGrinders Weekly NFL Grind Down Article. There’s no better place to start your research for NFL action in the week ahead than the Grind Down. Each week, we break down every game in an effort to better prepare you when building your daily fantasy lineups.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Washington at Minnesota
| Washington Redskins | Minnesota Vikings | |||||||||
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| Thurs – 8:25PM ET | Mall of America Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -1.5 | 50 | 25.75 | 1.5 | 50 | 24.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.4 | 12 | 12 | 6 | Offense | 23.2 | 17 | 23 | 16 | |
| Defense | 31.6 | 31 | 28 | 22 | Defense | 31.5 | 30 | 29 | 11 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Minnesota | 27 | 30 | 24 | 27 | Washington | 24 | 28 | 30 | 20 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Garcon | 89 | 11.1 | 10.0 | 11.0 | Jennings | 55 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 9.0 | |
| Hankerson | 42 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 6.0 | Simpson | 57 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 5.0 | |
| Moss | 39 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 2.0 | Patterson | 24 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 4.0 | |
| Reed | 49 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 5.0 | Carlson | 19 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 6.0 | |
Washington Redskins
The Redskins took down the Chargers at home last weekend and moved to 3-5 on the season. Their defense has been extremely bad and they’ve allowed 31, 45, 45 and 24 points in their last four games. They’ve now allowed 4 QBs to throw for over 300 yards, 3 running backs to rush for over 100 yards, and 7 receivers to catch over 100 yards. In the last 3 games, they’ve only gotten to the quarterback for 5 total sacks. Their rush defense ranks as the 3rd worst in the NFL on ProFootballFocus and their pass coverage is dead last in those ratings.
Offensively, it’s been a mixed bag for daily fantasy value. Mike Shanahan seems hell-bent on ruining potential big days by handing the ball off to Roy Helu or Darrel Young in the red zone. They run a relatively faced paced offense, averaging 69.5 plays per game on the season, considering the fact that they run the ball on 42% of downs (13th most in the NFL). Their overall offense ranks in the top third in football in nearly every statistic and both RG3 and Alfred Morris benefit greatly from the Skins Top-5 offensive line unit.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB Really can’t argue RG3 being a strong play on Thursday night football against a Vikings defense allowing the 5th most FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Biggest concern here is fatigue for a guy who has been injury-prone and will be playing on a short rest week.
- RB Alfred Morris is the workhorse back who now gets to face a mediocre Vikings rush defense. They’ve yet to allow a 100 yard rusher, but a few guys have been close. They tend to struggle most with backs who can catch a screen pass, allowing a league high 62.9 receiving yards to running backs. Morris doesn’t do much in the passing game so I’d be very cautious on this one.
- WR This receiver group is all about Pierre Garcon who is averaging 30% of RG3’s targets and has 5 or more catches in every game this season. The Minnesota secondary isn’t great, but did manage to keep Dez Bryant in check last weekend so be a bit wary there.
- TE Minnesota is rising the ranks as one of the worst defenses vs. Tight Ends after Jason Witten torched them in Week 9. Jordan Reed should see a high number of targets and if his price tag dropped following a lackluster Week 9 performance, you can roster him as a strong value play.
Minnesota Vikings
There’s a reason why a game between a 1-7 and 3-5 team has an over/under set at 50 points, and it’s because both of these defenses have been soft. The Vikings haven’t held an opponent to under 23 points all season long and have let up over 30 points in 5 of 8 games. Their defense against the pass ranks 29th in the NFL and they’ve only held one QB all season to under 280 passing yards. 6 Quarterbacks have multi-TD games against them and 5 receivers have posted 100 or more yards in the air. If the Vikes can get back Chris Cook and Jamarca Sanford this week their defense should improve a bit, but they still are unlikely to do a complete 360 in what’s quickly becoming a lost season for MIN fans.
On offense, it looks like Ponder will get the nod again and he’s actually been OK in his last 2 games for fantasy value. He’s posted 15 or more fantasy points and each and has gotten the offense to move the ball. The loss of Kyle Rudolph for the season will shake up the passing game significantly though, and John Carlson should step in to replace him and is a DEEP sleeper option for Thursday night games. As far as the Ponder connection goes, he’s now started 5 games so let’s see who he’s been targeting most:
Week One: Jennings (7), Simpson (8), Rudolph (4), Peterson (4)
Week Two: Jennings (6), Simpson (5), Rudolph (6), Peterson (2)
Week Three: Jennings (6), Simpson (8), Rudolph (8), Peterson (4)
Week Eight: Jennings (3), Simpson (3), Rudolph (4), Peterson (3)
Week Nine: Jennings (9), Simpson (5), Carlson (6), Peterson (4)
You also can’t talk about the Minnesota offense without discussing Adrian Peterson, who went back to his beastly ways against the Cowboys in Week 9. He got 25 touches and took them for 140 yards and a score. With Rudolph injured, look for AP to get more and more touches as the Vikings try to ride him to some victories.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB Ponder is in consideration, especially at home against such a bad pass defense. If he can get outside the pocket and pick up a rush TD for the 3rd consecutive game, he’ll easily hit value as a cheap QB2.
- RB You could do worse than paying up for Peterson in the Thursday night game, as Washington is allowing 4.4 yards per carry on the season.
- WR Ponder’s targets are a bit muddled and tough to predict, so I’d avoid this situation altogether despite the great matchup.
- TE John Carlson, as mentioned above, is a deep sleeper this week in place of the injured Rudolph. He did snag 4 balls after Rudolph went out on 6 targets, but I’d temper expectations until he shows if he has any big game upside.
Philadelphia at Green Bay
| Philadelphia Eagles | Green Bay Packers | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Lambeau Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 2 | 48 | 23 | -2 | 48 | 25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.0 | 13 | 10 | 3 | Offense | 29.0 | 3 | 6 | 2 | |
| Defense | 25.7 | 21 | 32 | 15 | Defense | 23.1 | 14 | 20 | 5 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Green Bay | 20 | 14 | 18 | 26 | Philadelphia | 25 | 21 | 32 | 3 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Jackson | 81 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 6.0 | Nelson | 62 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 9.0 | |
| Cooper | 43 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 6.0 | Boykin | 23 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 1.0 | |
| Avant | 52 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 1.0 | Jones | 32 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | |
| Celek | 29 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | Quarless | 18 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 7.0 | |
Philadelphia Eagles
If I’ve learned one thing this season about the Eagles it’s that when you expect the most, they give you the least. And when you expect the least, they give you the most. It’s been a tough few weeks for DFS players when picking Philly options, as they combined for 10 total points in 2 games against the miserable Cowboys/Giants defenses then came out and hung 49 up on one of the better defenses in the NFL so far this year in Oakland. One thing is clear, Foles will be the starter after tossing an NFL-tying record 7 TD passes last weekend. But before you get too excited about Foles this weekend, consider the fact that the Eagles are passing on just 48% of plays on the road this season and they’ve actually won 4 out of 5 away from Lincoln Financial. Their ability to control the clock with the run game has been the key to winning football games for Philly and that is likely to be their gameplan this weekend in Lambeau against a Packers team without their starting quarterback.
Defensively the Eagles aren’t much to write home about. If you combine Pryor and McGloins passing yards from last week, it marks the 6th time the Eagles have allowed over 300 yards through the air on the season. They were playing with a big lead, but their rush defense with that lead struggled as well. Rashad Jennings broke free for 102 yards and a score on 15 carries. They’ve know had 6 receivers go for 100+ yards against them and PFF has their pass coverage as the 7th worst in the NFL.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Foles will be highly owned this week after his monster performance in Week 9 and given the matchup with subpar Green Bay defense. But I’d be a bit cautious here as I see this game playing out much slower than both these teams typically play with the Packers forced to eat the clock and run a lot more with no Aaron Rodgers on the field.
- RB – Shady McCoy has now gone 3 games without rushing for more than 60 yards and that’s concerning for daily fantasy players who still see him with one of the highest price tags each week. The Packers rush defense is vulnerable, as showcased by “Matt Forte(player-profile)”:/players/Matt_Forte-11675’s big game on MNF, and the Eagles do run the ball on the road more but I wouldn’t call McCoy more than a GPP play right now.
- WR – Nick Foles has now started and completed 2 games this season. In those two, his targets were:
Week Six: Jackson (6), Cooper (6), Avant (6), Ertz (6), Celek (1), McCoy (2)
Week Nine: Jackson (6), Cooper (6), Avant (1), Ertz (6), Celek (4), McCoy (4)
So what to take from this? He spreads the ball pretty evenly around but “DeSean Jackson(player-profile)”:/players/DeSean_Jackson-12207’s average targets have gone down with Foles at the helm. He still has big upside but understand that Foles doesn’t rely on DJax the same way that Vick does. - TE – Zach Ertz is much more involved in the passing game when Foles is at the helm and facing a Packers defense that struggles vs. TE’s, he makes for a strong value play this weekend.
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay had been 8th in the NFL with 33+ minutes of possession per game and their combination of a strong rush attack with Rodgers and an even limited receiving corps allowed them to wear down opposing defenses. That won’t be the case this weekend as Seneca Wallace (or Matt Flynn potentially) will take the snaps behind center. Last week they had the ball for just 26 minutes and lost at home to the Bears. The injury to Rodgers completely changes the dynamic of their offense, so let’s look at who got the most targets last week seeing as Rodgers was driven from the game early on:
Nelson (9), Jones (3), Boykin (1), Quarless (7)
It was pretty clear that Wallace didn’t feel comfortable stretching the field which will kill any value for James Jones and severely hurts Jordy Nelson as well. The biggest benefactor is Quarless who continues to start in place of Jermichael Finley who was officially placed on IR this week. He was targeted 7 times in short yardage situations and reeled in 5 balls for 34 yards. Look for the Packers offense to rely heavily on the run game and short passes in this one.
On defense, the Packers could see Clay Matthews return to the field this week. If he does, their rush defense and ability to get after the quarterback will increase drastically. In the passing game, their defense had been shutting down opposing WR1s for the last few weeks until Brandon Marshall was able to break free for 100+ yards and a score in Week 9. They are an opportunistic bunch, which will need to create turnovers and quick 3 and outs if the Packers want to hang around in this game.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Seneca Wallace has a terrific matchup but really doesn’t bring enough talent to the table to be relevant in Week 10.
- RB – Both Eddie Lacy and James Starks will need to run a lot to keep Green Bay’s offense on the field. Unfortunately, you can bet that the Eagles will be stacking the box heavily so it could be uphill sledding for those two. Both should still see a lot of touches though and are definitely in play this weekend.
- WR – The only Packers WR I would consider is Jordy Nelson who may be able to sneak free for a few big plays against this Eagles pass defense. His value takes a considerable hit with Wallace at QB though, so instead of being a lock for H2H and 50/50 games, Nelson should instead be left for GPPs only.
- TE – Quarless is an intriguing value play this weekend in GPPs, given how often he was targeted by Wallace last weekend. It was the first time since Finley’s injury that he was heavily involved in the passing game and he’s still dirt cheap on most sites.
Detroit at Chicago
| Detroit Lions | Chicago Bears | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Soldier Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | ** | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 27.1 | 6 | 2 | 21 | Offense | 30.0 | 2 | 14 | 13 | |
| Defense | 24.6 | 18 | 26 | 14 | Defense | 28.2 | 29 | 23 | 29 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Chicago | 13 | 26 | 12 | 24 | Detroit | 16 | 16 | 27 | 15 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Johnson | 79 | 11.3 | 15.5 | Marshall | 81 | 10.1 | 11.5 | 13.0 | ||
| Durham | 46 | 5.8 | 7.0 | Jeffery | 66 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 9.0 | ||
| Broyles | 14 | 2.3 | 3.0 | Bennett | 19 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Pettigrew | 41 | 5.1 | 6.5 | Bennett | 56 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 8.0 | ||
Detroit Lions
The high powered Detroit offense is averaging 69.3 plays per game, good for 5th in the NFL, and an impressive 75.3 plays per game over the last 3 weeks. That’s 75 opportunities for the likes of Stafford, Bush, Johnson and others. Their offense has flourished with Reggie Bush in both the running and passing game, as well as some recent improvements by Matthew Stafford who has totaled 9 TD’s over his last 3 games. Calvin Johnson is coming off one of the greatest receiving games in NFL history before the bye, where he accounted for over 300 yards on 14 catches with a score. The Lions O-Line has also been strong in front of Stafford, ranking 5th in the NFL in pass protection so far.
On the other side of the ball, an ankle injury to right end Ziggy Ansah could slide under the radar but have an impact on the Lions pass rush. Detroit is already 3rd worst in the NFL, averaging just 1.6 sacks per game, and if Ansah sits that could open up all sorts of time for whichever QB anchors the Bears this weekend. For the rest of the D, ProFootballFocus has their pass coverage rating as the 6th highest in the NFL but they did allow Cutler to throw for 317 and a score back in Week 4. They tend to give up a lot of points because their offense scores a lot, so other teams are forced to follow suit but all in all this unit isn’t a cakewalk.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Stafford is in play against this Bears defense this week, which ranks towards the middle of the pack. I’d consider him in both GPPs and cash games.
- RB – Given Bush’s ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and move the ball on the ground, he’s almost always in play. Coming off a bye week, he should be fully rested and is in a great matchup vs. Chicago.
- WR – I don’t think anyone is going to argue with you if you work Calvin Johnson into your lineup. But beyond Johnson, none of the Lions receiving options are all that reliable. Kris Durham may see an increased role in Week 10 though with Ryan Broyles on IR and Nate Burleson unlikely to return until Week 11.
- TE – Just when I was ready to crown Joseph Fauria as the best TE for Detroit, Brandon Pettigrew has stepped in with 13 targets over the last 2 games. The Bears have been relatively soft vs. TE’s and Pettigrew makes for a GPP play on Sunday.
Chicago Bears
The Bears will be a challenging team to approach this week. The short rest coming off a big MNF win over Green Bay could hurt them a bit and the fact that Jay Cutler said he’d play in Week 10 confuses their quarterback situation. Josh McCown has been more than serviceable as a replacement. Regardless, you can expect the Bears to heavily rely on Matt Forte in both the run and pass game, as well as their two receiving threats in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. Their Pass/Rush offense both rank in the top half of the NFL and they’re currently 2nd in points scored, including having scored 27 or more points in each of their last 3 games. They don’t run a ton of plays, ranking 20th in the NFL at 62.4 per game, but they are extremely efficient in averaging 6.1 yards per play, which is good for 5th best.
Defensively, it’s a unit riddled with injuries and has been a disappointment all season. The good news was the Peanut Tillman playing against the Packers, but he’s been a shell of his former self. They’re allowing an incredible 28.2 points per game on the season and PFF has them as the 2nd lowest rated defense in all of football, ranked just above the Jaguars. This is due in large part to a rush defense that allowed their 5th 100+ yard back last week against Eddie Lacy and has averaged 5.4 yards per carry against over the last 3 weeks (6.9 yards per carry last week vs. GB). They’re also managing just 1.8 sacks per game, compared to the 2.6 figure the 2012-13 Bears defense boasted.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – I’ll try and update this as news comes out this week, but I would consider both McCown or Cutler in GPPs this weekend.
- RB – Forte has been the best RB in all of football and now faces an average Detroit rush defense. I think his value goes up if McCown starts again, as the Bears will likely commit more to the run and he’ll see more check down screen passes but regardless he’s a great cash game or GPP play.
- WR – Marshall and Jeffery have learned to coexist and both are benefitting. With that said, Detroit ranks 21st against WR1’s and 8th against WR2’s so I’d give a slight edge to Marshall here, despite a higher price point.
- TE – Martellus Bennett was a disappointment last week, grabbing just 4 catches for 36 yards. He was targeted 8 times though which is a good sign and he should continue to play an important role in the RZ passing game.
St. Louis at Indianapolis
| St. Louis Rams | Indianapolis Colts | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Lucas Oil Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 10 | 44 | 17 | -10 | 44 | 27 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.7 | 23 | 22 | 23 | Offense | 26.8 | 8 | 20 | 12 | |
| Defense | 25.1 | 20 | 9 | 28 | Defense | 19.4 | 7 | 17 | 27 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Indianapolis | 17 | 3 | 23 | 8 | St. Louis | 12 | 29 | 17 | 2 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Givens | 53 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 8.0 | Hilton | 66 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 12.0 | |
| Quick | 26 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.0 | Whalen | 12 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | |
| Pettis | 49 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 4.0 | Heyward-Bey | 40 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 6.0 | |
| Cook | 54 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.0 | Fleener | 38 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 5.0 | |
St. Louis Rams
The Rams lost their 3rd consecutive game last week to the Titans after getting run all over by Chris Johnson and Shonn Greene. This rush defense has been impressively bad all season, and Johnson was the 3rd back to hit the 150 yard marker against them. The one bright spot on this defense is their pass rush, which has been getting after the quarterback all season and ranks 6th best in the NFL at 3.2 sacks per game and is 2nd best in the league with 4.3 sacks per game over the last 3. That pass rush definitely helps their defensive backs out, and they haven’t allowed a single QB over the 300 yard marker since Week 2 against Matt Ryan.
On offense, the story is Zac Stacy who has taken daily fantasy by storm after his 38.3 fantasy point performance last weekend. He finally broke through and found the end zone last week, and deciding whether or not he’s worth an increased price tag will be one of the big decisions this weekend. With Kellen Clemens anchoring the QB slot, the Rams have changed from a team that rushed on less than 35% of plays to one that has now run on 45% of plays from scrimmage over the last three weeks. As long as Clemens is there, expect that ratio to remain pretty similar to where it has been recently.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Kellen Clemens is a game manager at best and won’t see enough passing opportunities to hit value.
- RB – You have to consider Zac Stacy an option as he continues to see heavy touches. He’s a GPP or H2H option, but is definitely price dependent. Keep in mind last week was the first time he found the endzone so he’s far from a lock for a big output.
- WR – With Clemens at the helm, the Rams receivers aren’t in play as well.
- TE – Jared Cook is the best of the STL receiving options, but still his ceiling is low with the current state of this offense.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts came back and shocked the Texans in a wild SNF game last week but you can’t possibly ignore how bad Trent Richardson has been since joining Indy. His highest rushing yard output in 6 games is 60 yards. Last week he had 8 carries for 20 total yards, one game after getting 14 rushes for 37 yards. I pointed out last week that Richardson has been one of the least explosive backs in football since getting drafted, and his inability to reach the second level is a big reason why the Colts are passing on 65% of downs over the past few weeks. Also of note was an injury to Darrius Heyward-Bey last weekend where he left the game and did not return, but has since returned to practice. He was completely ineffective in his time on the field though and backup WR Griff Whalen stepped in and played surprisingly well. He was targeted 6 times and caught 3 balls for 32 yards in catch up mode.
On defense, the Colts rank 7th in PFF’s overall defense ratings but plummeted in the pass coverage ratings after Andre Johnson torched Vontae Davis to the tune of 229 yards and 3 scores. It’s the third straight week the Colts have allowed a 100+ yard receiver and it’s starting to become an issue. Against the run, the Colts are allowing opponents to 124 yards per game but have limited anyone from posting a monster stat line, with the highest yardage total being 102 by Ryan Mathews and Marshawn Lynch. They’ve also only allowed 4 rushing touchdowns on the season.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – I’d like Luck a lot more if their run game was able to establish anything. Given how much better STL has been against the pass and the lack of Indy running game, they should be able to pin their ears back and go after him heavily.
- RB – Like I mentioned, T-Rich has been extremely ineffective. I actually like Donald Brown as a deep GPP play this weekend though, but his touches are iffy.
- WR – Hilton is definitely in play after the huge 2nd half he posted in Week 9, but only at the right price tag. Beyond him, DHB proved inept last weekend and probably can’t be trusted until he shows some signs of life.
- TE – I love Fleener this weekend as one of Luck’s top targets. The two had great rapport at Stanford and with Wayne down I think Fleener will gradually become a bigger and bigger part of their passing game.