NHL GPP Plays: Wednesday, October 7th
Hey Grinders!
Welcome to the first day of the NHL season! What a time to be alive.
After what felt like a long summer, we finally get to sit back and relax and enjoy a nice little four-game slate tonight. Tough matchups all around tonight, so hopefully my advice can help you earn some real dough.
Goaltenders
Carey Price – Carey Price is probably the safe play on the night in this matchup. Likely to go highly owned, some might consider fading him; he shouldn’t be considered as heavy a favorite as Vegas is projecting him to be. However, he’s still a favorite in a game where he may see more shots than people would think. With all the moves the Leafs made in the off-season, it is safe to surmise that they will be a well-coached team, but may find goals tough to come by. This is a situation where I like both Price’s floor and ceiling.
Jonathan Quick – With respect to GPPs, Jonathan Quick may be the best goalie for the format. Carey Price might go very highly owned, so Quick being a solid favorite at home against a Sharks team that allowed the 11th-most points to goalies last year is another solid spot. Not being a fan of Karri Ramo, and Crawford picking up a tougher home assignment against the Rangers, Jonathan Quick becomes the play. Picking up the win is paramount for goaltending, and Jonathan Quick is in a great spot to do just that.
Forwards
Jeff Carter – Both the San Jose Sharks and the Los Angeles Kings will contend for a playoff spot this year. Of all the road teams on tonight’s slate, San Jose’s was the shakiest last year. They sported a CA60 of 57.9 last season on the road, good for fifth worst in the NHL. Outside of Joe Thornton, whom Anze Kopitar will likely be assigned to, this is a team to target on a shortened slate.
Teuvo Teravainen – Teuvo gets the Brandon Saad treatment to start the season. Very low priced across the industry, Teravainen is playing alongside Jonathan Toews and Marian Hossa on Chicago’s first line, and getting some time on their PP2. I say he gets the Brandon Saad treatment because everyone’s performance is vastly elevated playing with these two. Last year, Brandon Saad had a CF% drop of almost eight points when separated from them, even though he received 7% more OZ starts. Enjoy the bargain on Teravainen while you can.
Radim Vrbata – Calgary was a beloved team last year for those who do not believe in analytics, while being the bane of of every stats head who was betting against them (including me). Dougie Hamilton and Mark Giordano are upper echelon defensemen, but outside of them, this team just can’t defend. It is likely a system problem, but it is a system to be taken advantage of. Giordano and Hamilton will likely get the draw that is the Sedin twins, which means Vrbata will be licking his chops squaring off against the rest of the Calgary defense; they’ll be a breeze by comparison.
Defensemen
Drew Doughty – I’ve already mentioned how San Jose is on the defensive end, so it’s no surprise to find Doughty in this article. The perennial Norris candidate is looking to get off to a hot start, and being on all top units, he’ll be getting an opportunity to head the Norris discussions for this year.
Dougie Hamilton – Priced down below the top guys, Dougie Hamilton should flourish playing on the top pairing with Giordano. Vancouver made some peculiar moves this off-season, and could be subject to a letdown this season. No better time to bet on the drop off than early season, and though I’m not high on Calgary forwards, their top three defenders (Giordano, Hamilton, Brodie) are extremely talented. If there’s any reason to believe Calgary won’t see a drop off from last season, it’s because of the acquisition of Dougie Hamilton.