Phillies vs. Cardinals Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Phillies vs. Cardinals Odds
| Phillies Odds | -104 |
| Cardinals Odds | -112 |
| Over/Under | 7 |
| Date | Friday, Oct. 7 |
| Time | 2:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
On Friday afternoon, the Philadelphia Phillies will play their first postseason game since 2011 when they travel to take on the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals find themselves in the Major League playoffs for the fourth consecutive season and for the 16th time since 2000. In Game 1 of this National League Wild Card round, Philadelphia will send Zack Wheeler to the mound, who will be opposed by Jose Quintana. Oddsmakers have these two teams competitively priced, with the Cardinals listed as slight -112 home favorites on the money line.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 1 of the National League Wild Card Round.
Philadelphia Phillies
Zack Wheeler finished the 2022 regular season with fantastic numbers for the third year in a row, delivering a 2.82 ERA, 3.10 xERA, 2.89 FIP, and a 1.04 WHIP in 153.0 innings of work. If not for a late-season trip to the injured list, he could have garnered more attention for the National League Cy Young award. Still, his return to the mound in September was a welcome sign for the Phillies, and even more promising – Wheeler had a 0.60 ERA, 2.18 ERA, 28.8 strikeout percentage, 1.9 percent walk rate, and a 0.67 WHIP in 15.0 innings in his final three outings. Excellent against both right- and left-handed batters, there is little that St. Louis can do from a lineup construction standpoint to create a matchup disadvantage for Wheeler on Friday afternoon. Expect the veteran right-hander to have a strong showing, but for him to likely be capped around 80 pitches as he continues to work his way back to being 100 percent stretched-out.
Offensively, the Phillies could find life difficult on Friday afternoon if their recent numbers against left-handed pitching are any indication of what to expect this weekend. Across the last two weeks, Philadelphia’s offense ranks 25th in OPS, 30th in ISO, 30th in strikeout percentage, and 14th in HardHit% when facing southpaws. Since September 1st, Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, and Bryce Harper each have a .179 batting average or worse and a .233 on-base percentage or worse against left-handed pitching. Assuming that these three players will once again be at the top of the Philadelphia lineup in this contest, things could get off to a slow start for this group.
Simply put, the late innings are a concern for Philadelphia. Since the All-Star break, the Phillies rank 11th in FIP, 28th in WHIP, 10th in strikeout percentage, 23rd in walk rate, and 28th in left-on-base percentage. Everyone from this unit will be available and rested heading into the weekend, but being fresh is no guarantee for success when it comes to this group.
St. Louis Cardinals
Jose Quintana does not have as much brand recognition as the other Game 1 starters on Friday’s MLB slate, but he has been equally, if not more, effective than the other hurlers taking the hill to officially begin the pennant race. Since being acquired by the Cardinals at the end of July, Quintana owns a 2.01 ERA, 2.60 FIP, and a 1.12 WHIP across 62.2 innings of work. St. Louis encouraged him to throw his changeup more against right-handed batters after the trade deadline, which paid enormous dividends during September – during which right-handed batters posted a .188 batting average and a .250 slugging percentage against the pitch. Against left-handed batters, the Cardinals placed extreme emphasis on Quintanta’s curveball. During the month of September, left-handed batters had a .000 batting average and a 52.6 percent Whiff percentage against the pitch. The revamped pitch-mix should at least enable Quintana to get through the order one time on Friday without running into much trouble, especially when considering the recent struggles of Philadelphia’s lineup against southpaws.
Across the final month of the regular season, St. Louis was less than spectacular against right-handed pitching – ranking 19th in OPS, 18th in ISO, and 19th in HardHit%. The struggles were spear-headed by the top of their lineup, with each of Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, Paul Goldschmidt, and Nolan Arenado posting a .238 batting average or worse against righties since September 1st. In that span, only Albert Pujols had better than a .766 OPS against right-handed pitching. A date with Wheeler in Game 1 is not a great “get-right” spot for this group.
St. Louis unquestionably has the least reliable relief corps of any team in the postseason this fall. Since the All-Star break, this group ranks only 19th in FIP, 14th in WHIP, 27th in strikeout percentage, 18th in walk rate, and 12th in left-on-base percentage. In a three-game series, with a completely rested bullpen, these concerns may not manifest to a large extent. However, it is something to keep an eye on throughout the weekend and beyond if the Cardinals manage to advance.
Phillies-Cardinals Pick
On Friday at Busch Stadium, strong winds are forecasted to be blowing across the field from left to right, and the temperature is expected to be around 60 degrees. Across the last 30 days of the regular season, the Phillies’ bats struggled mightily against left-handed pitching, and the Cardinals’ offense ranked worse than league average against right-handed pitching. Expect both of these starters to succeed in keeping the scoring to a minimum in the early portion of this contest, and for the under to have a great opportunity to cash for bettors in Game 1.
PICK: Under 2.5 – First 3 innings (-156)
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