Playing NFL DFS on Rosters: Week 6
If you took the time to read this article last week, I hope you learned something. Even if all the players I highlighted didn’t work, you at least got a chance to see the process I used to select them. For the plays that didn’t work, it’s always a good idea to look back at that player and see if you were on them for the right reasons. Before I dive into this week’s picks, lets evaluate one from last week. I feel like my biggest miss was Zach Ertz. As I mentioned last week, the Lions had given up a Tight End touchdown in 18 of their 20 previous games. I also mentioned that Ertz was targeted seven times in Week One before injuring his rib. Let’s see if we can get to the bottom of why Ertz disappointed us.
I often mention that targets are the most important thing to me on sites that are full PPR. Using the RotoGrinders TE Targets by Week tool I see that Ertz only had three targets. So, why weren’t the targets there? Was Ertz not in the game? According to Football Outsiders Snap Count Data, Zach Ertz played 82.5% of the Eagles offensive snaps. Ok, if snaps played weren’t a problem, what about routes run? According to Pro Football Focus, Ertz ran a route on 32 of Carson Wentz’s 36 drop backs.
So, what’s the verdict here? The Lions are still bad against TE. Even a bad defense can shut someone down their opponent from time to time. Zach Ertz is not widely considered one of the best Tight Ends in football. The matchup was a good one and the snaps played were there, the targets just didn’t happen. Sometimes that’s how it goes in football. You can do the research to put yourself in the best possible position and things just don’t happen like you expected. All you can really do is make a note of it. If you keep targeting Tight Ends versus the Lions and it doesn’t work, you’ll want to dig into the other side of the matchup. After all, the Lions defense also employs professional football players. Maybe they did something to correct their terrible coverage.
As you can see from the example above, a good matchup does not always equal fantasy production. I’ll be doing the same thing I did last week in this article. I’m using the free tools here at RotoGrinders to explain how I settled on certain players. Instead of just focusing on one or two of the tools, I’ll be using a variety of things to ideally show you how everything comes together.
Quarterback
Cam Newton ($15,100) – Let’s start things off with the Defense vs. Position (DVP) Tool I tried to make this clear last week but I’ll mention again. There is a “Filters” button in the top right corner of the page. Click on it and turn on any categories you think will be useful. Also, next to the Time Filter (Season, Last 4 Weeks, etc) is a radio button to select “per game” or “total”. I use per game in order to get an apples-to-apples comparison since some teams have played five games and others four.
Let’s play with the filters to see if it makes sense to use Cam Newton this week. This is also a good time to mention that “Earned” and “Allowed” can show you any team’s offense or defense. If you filter on Allowed and sort by Fantasy Points the Saints are the 12th-best matchup for a QB. They allow 18.86 PPG. Looking across their averages, they allow 38 attempts, 312 yards and 1.25 TDs per game. Cam Newton scored over 30 points in each game against the Saints last season. The Saints have also allowed the most rushing attempts inside the five yard line this season. That could set up nicely for a Cam Newton QB sneak.
Brock Osweiler ($9,300) – This will probably be one of the only places you’ll see this recommendation. Let me be clear, I’m not saying Brock Osweiler should be your cash game QB. I’m not even saying he should be in most of your lineups. Hear me out though, the Colts have already allowed three top-five QBs this season. If we filter the same DVP page from above, we’ll see that the Colts are the eighth-best matchup for a QB at 20.1 PPG. They allow 37.4 attempts, 308 yards, and 1.4 TDs per game. If elect to draft Osweiler at $9,300 you can absolutely stack your Rosters lineup this week. The difference between Newton (or another top-tier QB) is roughly $6,000. An extra $6,000 would go a long way towards filling out the rest of your roster.
Running Back
Le’Veon Bell ($16,200) – Now that I just saved you a ton of money at QB with Osweiler, let me help you spend it at RB. Click over to RB tab on that same DVP Page then filter by season and then sort by RUATT. Guess what team allows the most rushes per game, the Miami Dolphins! If you sort by RUYDS, you’ll note the Dolphins allow the second-most yards per game at 131.4. If you filter the same page by Fantasy Points you’ll note that the Dolphins only allow 20.9 PPG. That’s middle-of-the-road but it is because they’ve only allowed one rushing touchdown in five games. I don’t believe the Dolphins are a terrible run defense between the 20s but then suddenly find the magic when it counts. The touchdowns are coming eventually and Le’Veon Bell is a solid bet to get them started this week.
LeSean McCoy ($11,900) – Let’s stick to the same DVP page we are already on for the next pick. If you filter RUATT allowed to RBs you’ll notice the 49ers allow 28.6 attempts per game. They also allow the most rushing yards per game at 133.40 and that’s even after allowing just 65 to the Rams in Week One. In short, the 49ers have been absolutely destroyed by every RB other than Todd Gurley. Their average over the last four weeks is 167.3 rushing yards allowed per game. That includes four consecutive 100-yard rushers. We can trust LeSean McCoy this week, especially priced at a very reasonable $11,900 on Rosters.
Wide Receiver
Kelvin Benjamin ($13,000) – If you want to play Kelvin Benjamin this week, Rosters is the site to do it on. RotoGrinders doesn’t yet have Rosters included in our Salary Chart but you can use it to get a good idea of where he’s priced across the industry. He’s priced 9th on FD, 5th on DK, 8th on Yahoo, 10th on FA, and 5th on DD. Meanwhile on Rosters, Benjamin is the 16th-most-expensive WR. He’s priced like Jarvis Landry, Marvin Jones, Jeremy Maclin and Emmanuel Sanders here. That’s actually a pretty fair price based on Benjamin’s actual production. It’s hard to recommend Benjamin based on his targets because that data is skewed. His target totals through five games are 12, 9, 1, 7, 9. I tend to believe Cam Newton when he says that game with one target won’t happen again. If we completely remove that game, Benjamin’s targets-per-game average becomes 9.25. That’s more than enough to dominate in this matchup against the Saints (who allow the third-most points to WR this season).
Cameron Meredith ($5,000) – I’m not even sure if I should be mentioning Cameron Meredith right here. This price is steal and I would be helping you commit a robbery. The absolute minimum price for a WR on Rosters is $5,000, that’s where Meredith is priced. He had 12 targets last week of which he hauled in nine for 130 yards and a touchdown. Meredith played 93% of Chicago’s offensive snaps and saw 29% of their targets. Even if you don’t want to play Meredith this week, you at least need to be aware your opponents will be playing him. The savings that Meredith gets you allows you to pay up at every other position.
Tight End
Delanie Walker ($6,900) – Let’s jump back to the DVP Tool for a minute. This seems like an excellent week to pay up at TE. First of all, there’s plenty of savings available elsewhere. Second of all, there are two expensive guys with great matchups. Let’s start with the easier one to afford. Using the DVP tool, click on Season and then Allowed and sort by REC. The Browns allow eight catches, 100.2 yards, and one TD per game to opposing TEs. That’s on 11 targets. I’m aware that number is skewed just a bit by what Martellus Bennett did to the Browns last week. Those numbers aren’t all that far off from what we can expect from Walker this week though.
Jimmy Graham ($8,800) – We might as well just stick with the DVP Tool for our next recommendation as well. If you click on Fantasy Points allowed, you’ll notice the Browns are the best matchup for a TE. The second-best is the Atlanta Falcons. They allow an average of 6 receptions, 68 yards, and one TD to opposing TEs. That’s on nine targets per game. If you head over to the TE Targets by Week page you’ll notice Graham has target totals of 1, 4, 9, 8 this season. The first two make sense as the Seahawks didn’t play Graham at all in preseason and wanted to ease him back coming off a knee injury. The two most recent target totals are more indicative of Graham’s current role. He’s scored 21 and 17.3 Rosters points in those two games.
Defense, Kickers and Promos
In this article I don’t typically cover which defense to select on Rosters. Above, I’ve given you enough value options to play just about any defense you want. If you insist on a recommendation, I’ll say that you should read Stewburtx8’s Defense/ST Article. He mentions several great options and all of them fit easily on Rosters.
As far as kickers go, I’m going to refer you back to the expert again. Sportsgrinder does great work with his weekly Kicker Study You can fit any of his top options with relative ease.
Thanks for reading this article. Hopefully, the picks above work out. If they don’t, at least you can have confidence that the logic behind them was sound. If you enjoyed this article, you really should try out Rosters. If you don’t already have an account, you can sign up through RotoGrinders’ link. You’ll get $40 free just for depositing $10. You can also Win a trip to the Super Bowl. The guys at Rosters work really hard to earn your business. I highly doubt you’ll be disappointed if you give it a try.