Playing on Rosters: Week 10
Let’s talk about the Presidential Election for a second. Wait, don’t close this article yet! I swear this isn’t a political think piece. In fact, it’s nothing like that at all. Have you ever heard of Nate Silver? He’s the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. In 2012, Nate was lauded as the most accurate political forecaster. He correctly predicted 50 of 50 states. He largely used that fame to build FiveThirtyEight which is an ESPN company. How did Nate do this time around? To put it nicely, not well. He had Hillary Clinton with around a 75% chance to win.
If you spent election night on Twitter, you may have noticed people ripping Nate for his projections. I’ll admit I poked a little fun at Nate myself. I still think he is one of the smartest political forecasters around. Earlier this year, Nate was one of the people that pointed out even if an event has a 75% probability the opposite event will still happen roughly 25% of the time. It’s funny to go back and read Nate’s final election update: There’s a Wide Range of Outcomes, and Most of Them Come up Clinton.
Alright, let’s pull this back to Daily Fantasy. The point of bringing up Nate Silver here is that just because the results don’t go your way, doesn’t mean your process was wrong. Sometimes in DFS you are 2012 Nate Silver who accurately predicts 50 of 50 states. Other times, you are 2016 Nate Silver who went all-in on an outcome that was expected to be 75% when the actual outcome was part of the other 25%. Lucky for us, DFS allows us to start over every day or every week. Nate is going to have to wait four more years for his redemption.
When evaluating our results, we shouldn’t evaluate based on whether it worked. Instead, consider whether it should have worked. If you play David Johnson this week against the 49ers, that’s something that should work out far more often than not. If you plan to avoid David Johnson, there’s probably a small range outcomes where that works out for you. Going either route won’t make you a genius no matter which result actually happens. The important thing is that you build your own process and evaluate your results against that process. Be willing to consider the range of outcomes that don’t go in your favor, but don’t be too hard on yourself when they happen.
Let’s take a look at the Rosters Week 10 NFL slate and see if we can identify some of the best situations to capitalize on. As a reminder, if you don’t have a Rosters account yet make sure to click through the RotoGrinders link and Rosters will give you an additional $20 when you deposit $10. (Note: The additional $20 is manually posted and could take a few hours to show up)
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers ($14,300) – I’ve pointed out in this space before that one of my favorite things to do is compare pricing across the DFS industry. On almost every other site, Aaron Rodgers is the most-expensive QB. On Rosters, he’s the fifth-most-expensive. With the loss of Eddie Lacy, the Packers have been forced to rely on a pass-heavy attack. They’ve thrown the ball on 70% of their offensive plays over the past three weeks. Rodgers’ points on Rosters over those three games were 24.74, 33.84, and 27.18. If we look at the Football Outsiders’ DVOA for the Titans, they rank 10th against the run and 27th against the pass. All signs point to the volume being available for Rodgers to get you the kind of game you need at this price.
Marcus Mariota ($11,400) – I’ll admit it feels strange liking so many players in this Packers/Titans game. The Titans play at the second-slowest pace in the league. They came into the season wanting create an “exotic smashmouth football” identity. They prefer to control the game on the ground with DeMarco Murray when they can. I don’t see this as being a week that they can do that though. The Titans are going to have to score some points if they want to hang with the Packers. Mariota has shown that he can score when trusted. He now has multiple touchdown passes in five straight games. If I’m looking to save a few thousand at QB, Mariota is the guy that feels safest.
Running Back
David Johnson ($15,600) – Allow me to rattle off some stats real fast. The 49ers have allowed seven different players to rush for 100 yards in seven games this season. They’ve also allowed 170 rushing yards in each of their last two games. David Johnson is on the other side of this matchup. He’s accounted for 35% of Arizona’s offensive yardage this season. Somehow, Johnson is cheaper than Ezekiel Elliott and Le’Veon Bell this week. As I mentioned in the intro, this is one of those picks that will work out more often than not. I’m not overthinking this one.
Darren Sproles ($8,200) – Rosters is a site that offers one point-per-reception (aka full PPR). Darren Sproles is a RB who catches a lot of passes. This season, the Falcons have allowed an average of 7.89 receptions and 60.78 yards per game to opposing RBs. I’ll give you a second to think about that while I pull some other stats. On the season, Sproles has played 49% of the Eagles’ RB snaps. Let’s dig a little deeper though. Last week, Sproles played 80%, the week before 81% and the week before that 45%. All the weeks prior to those there were close to a 50/50 split. What I’m saying here is that the Eagles backfield isn’t a 50/50 timeshare anymore; it’s more like 80/20. Take advantage this week in a prime matchup before everyone else catches on.
Wide Receiver
Emmanuel Sanders ($12,700) – The Saints pass defense is ranked 28th against the pass according to Football Outsiders DVOA. Fantasy players are aware that targeting this Saints secondary makes sense. The Broncos have one of the easier offenses to handicap. You can count on Sanders and Demaryius Thomas to see around 10 targets per game. As I dug into both, I wondered why they are priced so cheap. $12K for a WR seeing 10 targets per game is a good deal on a PPR site. What I realized is that Thomas and Sanders have combined for just one touchdown over their last four games. Using the WR Targets tool here on RotoGrinders I noticed Sanders is third in the league in Red Zone targets with 14. It’s a bit surprising that Sanders has just three TDs on the season. Positive regression is coming here and it will probably start this week.
Rishard Matthews ($6,600) – If you don’t use my Sproles recommendation above, you’re going to have a hard time fitting the expensive options you want. You’ll need a cheap WR in that case and there is one that really stands out. The Packers are allowing 1.9 points per target to opposing WRs. Rishard Matthews has emerged as the quasi #1 WR in Tennessee. He’s played 89% of the offensive snaps the past two weeks. Last week against San Diego, Matthews saw 10 targets of which he caught six for 63 yards and two TDs. The price is cheap enough here that we would honestly live with any of his recent games on than the 7.7 stinker against the Colts.
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski ($14,100) – It seems like Gronkowski really missed having Tom Brady as his QB. Since Brady’s return, Gronkowski’s lowest receiving total was 93 yards. His lowest fantasy point total was 15.9. The Seahawks have a pretty stout defense but they are vulnerable to TE. They rank 26th versus TE using Football Outsiders DVOA. Using Vegas odds, the Patriots implied total in this game is 28.25. Looking at the way the matchup stacks up, the Patriots are likely to attack the Seahawks where they are vulnerable which would mean over the middle. I expect Gronkowski to be heavily involved here.
Zach Ertz ($5,600) – It’s always hard to trust Zach Ertz. He’s bombed more than once this year in prime matchups. This week he has another excellent matchup against a Falcons defense that allows the fifth-most points to TEs. Ertz finally appears to be a part of this Eagles offense again after catching all eight of his targets last week for 97 yards. Vegas sees this Eagles/Falcons game relatively close. If the Eagles are going to keep pace they’ll have to move the ball. The only way that’s going to happen is by working the middle of the field with Ertz, Sproles and even Jordan Matthews. It’s reasonable to assume that Ertz will see 5-8 targets this week which puts him in play at this price.
Before we get out of here I wanted to take a second to say thank you for reading. Hopefully, I’ve given you enough options above to fill in your Rosters lineup. If you need some advice on Defense and Kickers be sure to check out Stewburtx8’s Defense and Special Teams article as well as Sportsgrinder’s “Kicker Study.”: https://rotogrinders.com/articles/the-kicker-study-week-10-1537428 If you have any other questions feel free to leave a comment below or shoot me a direct message. Good luck this week!