Playing on Rosters: Week 15
At the risk of sounding like a Grinch, I’m just going to put this out there: I HATE CHRISTMAS MUSIC! That doesn’t mean I hate Christmas though. Also, for my politically correct friends out there, I don’t hate your holiday either. I love the idea of getting together with friends and family. I think it’s something we should do more often, not just once per year.
Anyways, let’s get back on topic. I’m certainly not saying there is something wrong with the Christmas classics (even though they are overplayed). What I have a problem with is New Age artists trying to make a buck by covering a Christmas classic. For example, Christina Aguilera has a beautiful voice but her rendition of Oh Holy Night just doesn’t do it for me. Same with Iggy Pop singing White Christmas. Seriously, America? How is that something that needed to happen? That’s not the end of it though. The Pussycat Dolls decided to sexualize Santa Baby, even though Madonna already tried that. Let’s put an end to this trend right now! If we don’t, one of these days Taylor Swift and Nickelback are going to collaborate on “O Come All Ye Faithful” which will literally burst my eardrums.
At this point you might be asking yourself what my hatred for Christmas cover songs has to do with DFS. Honestly, nothing! I’m going to tie them together anyways though. If you clicked on any of the links above, you probably thought to yourself, “That just doesn’t fit.” I think the same thing when I look some DFS lineups. I don’t have a problem with Christina Aguilera, but I do have a problem with her Christmas song. I also don’t have a problem with Dez Bryant but it certainly wasn’t a good idea to use him against the Giants last week. If you did that, you are worse than even the worst Christmas cover song. You deserve the one catch on nine targets that you received.
Okay, that was a little mean. If you played Dez Bryant, you aren’t really the worst you possibly just had a bit too much eggnog. Allow me to help you avoid making a similar mistake this week. We’ll be using Rosters’ scoring and salaries to identify some of this week’s best plays. If you don’t have a Rosters account, be sure to use the RotoGrinders link and Rosters will add $20 to your $10 deposit. On top of that, RotoGrinders will throw in Rosters Premium Content for free.
Quarterback
Matt Ryan ($15,300) – Even though I’m posting this article on Thursday, I’m ignoring the LA/SEA game (THU), the MIA/NYJ game (SAT), and the CAR/WSH game (MON). If you play a slate that includes those games there is an option or two worth considering. The vast majority of people who read this will be looking for options on Sunday’s Main Slate so that’s where we’ll focus. Let’s start with the most-expensive QB on the slate. There are weather-related issues in several games this week. ATL/SF does not have any weather concerns. The 49ers allowed the fifth-most points to opposing QBs this season. The 49ers also allow an average of 70.3 plays per game which is last in the league. We’re getting extra plays for a QB who is playing at an elite level this season. Matt Ryan has been over 20 Rosters points in 75% of his games this season. He should easily reach value in this matchup.
Carson Palmer ($12,300) – Hey look, a QB against the Saints! You can accuse me of being lazy here if you would like. I normally don’t like to point out the obvious matchups like this one. If you are playing the Rosters’ Main Slate you can understand why though. Weather, Injury, Price, or Matchup have me skipping past everyone between Ryan and Palmer. If you are trying to work in expensive options elsewhere (or don’t trust Ryan in a possible blowout) then Palmer is an acceptable pivot. The Saints allow 278 passing yards per game which is the fifth-most. Palmer has at least 15 points in five of his last sixth games. We shouldn’t need a lot more than that at this price.
Running Back
LeSean McCoy ($13,900) – The Bills rushing offense versus the Browns run defense is the most lopsided matchup of the week. Against the run the Browns rank 32 in DVOA, 29th in yards allowed and 24th in touchdowns allowed. The Bills already run the ball on 47% of their offensive plays this season which is third in the league. It’s incredibly obvious how the Bills will attack this game. It’s also incredibly obvious that they will have success at it. The Browns allowed the second-most rushing yards per game at 146.15. Going with McCoy here instead of Le’Veon Bell will save you about $3,000 this week.
LeGarrette Blount ($9,300) – Let’s talk about two cheap RB options this week. Most of our opponents are going to see a matchup with Denver keep scrolling. The Broncos have one of the best pass defenses in the league. They allow under 200 yards passing per game. This season, teams have discovered the formula for beating Denver is on the ground. Opposing RBs average 29.9 touches against the Broncos. LeGarrette Blount has 14 rushing TDs this season. If other coaches have figured out the easiest way to beat Denver we have to believe Bill Belichick will. A heavy dose of Blount sprinkled in with some Lewis and White is the mostly likely scenario here. We might as well take the option that will see the bulk of the carries and is also the most likely to score a touchdown.
Kenneth Farrow ($8,200) – With Melvin Gordon doubtful this week one obvious place to look is his replacement. Farrow carried the ball 16 times last week for 55 yards. What doesn’t show in Farrow’s game log is his poor pass protection. He had at least one missed assignment that led to a strip-sack. The matchup is juicy against a Raiders team that allows the seventh-most points to RBs. That said, Farrow is not a lock for the majority of snaps on Sunday if he can’t handle his pass protection duties. For the same price as Farrow, you can have Tevin Coleman instead. (P.S. Yes, I just wasted a paragraph to recommend someone other than the guy it was about.)
Wide Receiver
Larry Fitzgerald ($13,100) – With Michael Floyd cut this week following a DUI arrest there is now one less moth to feed in this Arizona offense. Floyd’s absence doesn’t directly affect Fitzgerald’s snap count as Fitzgerald rarely plays on the outside. Fitzgerald has struggled recently but he’s still averaging ten targets per game. This week he has a matchup with the Saints in a game that features an over/under of 50. This is a great bounce-back spot for Fitzgerald.
Allen Robinson ($10,100) – I’ll understand if you don’t want to follow me on this recommendation. Blake Bortles has struggled in a big way this season and it has drastically cut into “(player-popup)Allen Robinson”:/players/allen-robinson-18179’s production. For most of last season, Robinson was a lock for 10+ targets each week. Last week versus Minnesota, Robinson saw a season-low three targets against Minnesota. That’s certainly understandable. The last time Robinson had a good game was in Week 10 against this same Houston defense. Robinson had 9 catches for 107 yards and a TD that day. The price is cheap enough here tha we can gamble on Robinson returning to his ten-target form. At this price, you’re basically paying for a Tyreek Hill or Corey Coleman type player. Admittedly, Robinson has been bad but at his peak he’s far better than anyone in this same price tier.
Tight End
Kyle Rudolph ($5,100) – The Colts rank 30th in DVOA versus TEs this season. They allow the third-most yards per game at 68.15 on 7.69 targets per game. Rudolph has been targeted 20 times over his last three games and 98 total times on the season. He also averages 1.31 Red Zone targets per game (17 total). He’s a safe bet for 5 catches and 50+ yards with upside for a touchdown.
Antonio Gates ($5,200) – Come take a drive with me down Narrative Street. Antonio Gates is two touchdowns behind Tony Gonzales all-time record for a TE. The Charges have openly talked about wanting Gates to get this record. Gates is seeing heavy target volume lately with nine or more targets in five of his last six games. The over/under of 50 in this SD/OAK game says there is sneaky shootout potential. When you add in the fact that Melvin Gordon is doubtful the Charges could take a more pass-heavy approach this week.
At this point in the article each week, I always point out that I’m not the person to go to for advice on selecting a defense or Kicker. Sportsgrinder did a great job on his Week 15 Kicker Study He has the scoop on which kicker you should play this week. (P.S. Make sure to check the weather before locking in your kicker).
As far as Defense goes, our guy Stewburtx8 has you covered with his Week 15 Defense article. He uses a system to determine the best choices and tracks the results. Go give it a read!
With that, I’m out of here. Good luck in your Rosters contests this week!