Playing on Rosters: Week 8
In 2014 the band Nickelback released its eighth studio album. A quick Google search tells me that Nickelback had sold over 50 million records at that point. (Side Note: Why do they still refer to them as records? I doubt Nickelback has sold any records since no one owns a record player anymore). Another quick Google search tells me that there are about 318.9 million people in the United States. Obviously, Nickelback didn’t sell all their “records” in the United States, but they’ve probably sold more since 2014. Using some fuzzy math, nearly one in six people in the United States owns, or has owned, a Nickelback record. Are you one of those people? I’ll confess that I bought their first album. Who bought the rest, though? Almost no one will admit to being a Nickelback fan these days. That’s just sad because Nickelback was a wildly popular band at one point.
Why did we just spend a paragraph on the history of Nickelback? This is the part where I try to pull my best JMtoWin impression and tie that paragraph into DFS. In the late 90s and early 00s Nickelback was popular. Back then it was totally acceptable to crank up some Nickelback and jam out to some “This is How You Remind Me.” These days, if you are in an Uber with friends and someone hands you the auxiliary cord you better not even think about playing a classic hit like “Photograph.” The point is that when things are popular, it’s a lot easier to admit you like them. The same goes for DFS. Remember back when Cameron Meredith was a thing? Back in the day, I saw someone refer to Meredith as a “must-play.” The more I think about it, that someone was me, and it happened last week in this article. They can’t all be our Greatest Hits, right? Anyways, this week I’ll have some new hits for you to jam out to and jam into your lineup.
As a reminder, if you haven’t signed up for Rosters yet, make sure to use the RotoGrinders Link. If you deposit $10, Rosters will add $40 more to give you a starting balance of $50. You can’t beat that! (P.S. The $40 match isn’t instant. It is credited manually, usually within a few hours)
Quarterback
Tom Brady ($15,100) – Picking a QB is a bit strange this week. There isn’t a top option that stands out above the rest. Matt Ryan has been playing great and gets a banged-up Packers defense. Aaron Rodgers faces Matt Ryan in what should be a shootout. Russell Wilson gets everyone’s favorite defense to pick on in the Saints. You can make a case for any of those guys. You can also make a solid argument against any of them. Normally, that would lead me to pay down at QB but the value this week is at RB. That makes it easy to fit a top option. That leads me to Tom Brady. Since returning from suspension, Brady’s passing attempts go 40, 35, 26. The concerning number there is 26 which was last week. Brady will face a Bills’ defense that is 16th against the run and 16th against the pass using Football Outsiders DVOA. Trying to predict how Bill Belichick will attack an opponent is a fool’s errand. That said, Brady won’t be eliminated from any game plan Belichick creates. The draw back to using Brady is his price but it is not hard to make it work this week. I would say Brady is basically Nickelback’s Far Away. It’s not that great of a song but if it’s on I’ll listen.
Brock Osweiler ($9300) – Let’s get this out of the way. This recommendation is Nickelback’s Lullaby If you haven’t heard the song, it’s about them trying to talk someone out of committing suicide. When I think Brock Osweiler I think,
Just give it one more try to a lullaby, and turn this on the radio. If you can hear me now I’m reaching out to let you know that you’re not alone… If you can’t tell I’m scared as hell…
Hear me out on this though. Here are the Defense Versus Position (DVP) ranks of each team that Osweiler has faced: 23, 14, 1, 28, 3. This week he gets the 32nd-ranked Lions. Against the similarly-ranked Colts, Osweiler scored 17.36 Rosters points. We would even take Osweiler’s 17.56 against the 10th-ranked Titans. The Lions are allowing opposing passers to complete 74.2% of their passes. The Lions have yet to hold any QB under 15 points. I’m not saying play Osweiler in your cash games but the savings you get here will get you much better RBs and WRs. Come join me on the ledge this week!
Running Back
Devontae Booker ($6,000) – Okay, that Osweiler recommendation took some guts. This one on the other hand takes absolutely no courage at all. If you playing Devontae Booker this week, You’re Never Gonna Be Alone. C.J. Anderson missed practice yesterday to get a second opinion on his knee. He’s doubtful for Sunday. Even with Anderson available last week, Booker carried the ball 17 times for 83 yards and a touchdown. This week Booker draws an ideal matchup against a Chargers defense that allows the second-most points to RBs. He’s a lock-and-load cash game option and probably belongs in most of your tournament lineups too.
Christine Michael ($12,100) – When I watch the Saints try to play defense, I can’t help but think its Too Bad It seriously just keeps ringing through my head. It’s too bad, it’s stupid, too late, so long…. Even if you aren’t a Nickelback fan, you have to admit that one is kind of catchy. So is this pick. The Saints have already allowed ten touchdowns to RBs through six games. Christine Michael has 17 or more points against every bottom-half run defense he’s faced this year. He gets the Saints this week who rank dead last. The $12,100 price tag is very affordable here.
Wide Receiver
Mike Evans ($15,200) – Did you know that in Mike Evans last seven games without Vincent Jackson he’s averaged 6.3 catches and 105.3 yards? Did you know that Mike Evans was targeted 13 times last week en route to 29.6 Rosters points? You did? Well then What are you waiting for? Get Evans into your lineup. Evans opponent (The Raiders) has allowed seven 100-yard WRs which is the most in the league. Evans also leads the league with a 31.7% target share. Evans is about as safe as it gets this week.
Golden Tate ($10,100) – After cracking double digit points just once in his first five games, Golden Tate claimed a spot on my Never Again list. He then went and totally redeemed himself with 30.8 and 15.3 points the next two weeks. Those games coincided with the loss of Eric Ebron and Theo Riddick. Even if Riddick and Ebron return this week, Jim Bob Cooter said Tate will remain a focal point of this offense. We probably can’t expect 10-12 targets like the past two weeks but 8-10 would be just fine at this price.
Tight End
Jimmy Graham ($9,800) – When the Saints traded away TE Jimmy Graham he had to be angry. This week he’ll make his return to the Superdome and I imagine he’ll be jamming out to This Means War on the team flight. Ok, maybe not, but he’ll still be looking to exact some revenge. Graham has eight or more targets in each of his last four games. On the season, Graham owns a target share of 22.61% which trails only Olsen, Rudolph and Reed at TE. There aren’t many value TEs this week while there is plenty of value at WR and RB. That will lead me to paying up for a guy like Graham in most of my lineups.
Travis Kelce ($8,100) – I searched and searched for a cheaper TE thinking There’s Gotta Be Somebody out there for me. There are too many question marks surrounding the lower-tier TEs though. That leaves Kelce as the cheapest I feel comfortable with. Ideally, I would like to have a TE with more than Kelce’s 5.83 targets per game. I’m willing to compromise on targets though for the higher-value Red Zone targets. Kelce is tied for second in the league with eight Red Zone targets this season. Kelce draws a matchup against the Colts who are fifth-worst against TE. They’ve allowed 481 yards and three touchdowns to TEs on the season.
Defense, Kicker and More Nickelback Songs?
Usually in this part of the article I explain I’m not to the guy to go to for Kicker and Defense recommendations. Above are enough value options to play anyone you want at Defense and Kicker. Plus, if I make a pick for each that’s two more Nickelback songs. You don’t want that do you?
Instead, I’ll recommend that you give Stewburtx8’s Defense and Special Teams article a read. He’s got some great recommendations and it appears to be a Nickelback-free zone.
As far as Kicker goes, I’ll update this space with a link to this Week’s Kicker Study once it is posted. With that, I’m out of here for the week. I wish you good luck in your contests this week and also good luck getting these catchy Nickelback songs out of your head.