RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week: Week 16

by RotoGrinders Last Updated 2016-12-26 03:08:09

Welcome to the RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week! Each week, this piece will pull out one matchup that stands out to us on the weekend’s slate.

Below, you will find JMToWin’s writeup of this game from his NFL Edge – the most in-depth, DFS-specific piece in the industry, in which every game is broken down from top to bottom in a DFS-specific manner – and you will also find assorted thoughts from some of the other, top minds in Daily Fantasy Sports.

To access this content in its entirety, take our Premium package out for a free, seven-day test drive!

JMToWin’s NFL Edge

Colts at Raiders

Vegas-Implied Total: Raiders 28.25, Colts 24.75

KEY MATCHUPS:

Raiders Run D – 21st DVOA / 29th Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O – 11th DVOA / 23rd Yards per carry

Raiders Pass D – 21st DVOA / 29th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Colts Pass O – 15th DVOA / 10th Yards per pass attempt

Colts Run D – 29th DVOA / 27th Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O – 14th DVOA / 13th Yards per carry

Colts Pass D – 27th DVOA / 24th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Raiders Pass O – 4th DVOA / 20th Yards per pass attempt

______

In all the hype over the game in New Orleans, this game in Oakland may end up getting a bit lost in the shuffle. I don’t think it will go overlooked, but it’s simply not as sexy as “at the Superdome.” Make sure you are giving this game the attention it deserves.

What I like about this game, compared to the game in New Orleans (not that I dislike the game in New Orleans!), is that neither of these teams is at risk of attempting to “shorten the game” on us. Oakland ranks 30th this year in yards allowed, while the Colts rank 27th. Oakland ranks sixth in offensive yards, while the Colts rank 11th. Each offense should trade firepower this week.

The best way to attack Oakland in the pass game is over the middle of the field. While Oakland ranks ninth in DVOA on both the left and right side of the field, they rank 31st over the middle. They also rank 31st over the short middle of the field. With T.Y. Hilton running the majority of his snaps in the slot, he is in a great spot this week. It only helps further that he is exactly the type of receiver the big Oakland corners have struggled with all season.

Donte Moncrief should return this week and will get anywhere from six to nine targets, and will be heavily involved in the red zone. His upside is capped given his matchup on the outside and his lack of “splash play usage” (he has the physical ability to post some splash plays, but that’s not how the Colts feature him in this offense), but he has a decent floor, and he has big touchdown upside. You could also look to the Colts’ tight ends in this spot, as Oakland is susceptible to the position. You are basically chasing a touchdown with Dwayne Allen or Jack Doyle, but if you happen to get one, you’ll be in good position.

The Colts should also be able to move the ball on the ground against the Oakland defense, and as we know by now (as we talk about basically every week), Frank Gore has one of the lowest ceilings in the NFL among workhorse backs, but he also has one of the highest floors. Through 14 weeks, Gore has only three games all season with single-digit points on DraftKings, and only four such games on FanDuel.

The bad thing about the Raiders’ run defense in this tremendous spot is that usage is suddenly unpredictable again. Right now, Latavius Murray projects as one of the highest-owned backs on the weekend, which is fine…except that the Raiders decided to revive their three-man backfield rotation last week, with Latavius dropping to 31 snaps last week without warning (after being around 50 snaps for three straight weeks). That may have been fluky, but it may also have been a result of the Raiders trying to figure out what works best with the shotgun offense they are having to run now that Derek Carr is dealing with his finger injury. The ceiling you think Latavius has? It’s fully there this week. But the floor is lower than most will make it out to be, as he very well may see only 13 or 14 touches again.

The passing game is easier to figure out, as Indianapolis is exploitable on all areas of the field. We should note that Michael Crabtree ranks third in the NFL in red zone targets with 20, and he also has eight targets inside the 10-yard-line, while Amari has only 12 red zone targets, with six inside the 10-yard-line (zero catches on these six targets). Crabtree also has 10 more targets than Cooper on the season – though with most of the passes on this offense going to these two guys, each of them ranks inside the top 16 in the NFL in targets. Each guy is strongly in play this week – especially after the Raiders seemed to hint this week that they want to get Cooper more involved, after he saw only three targets last week. Amari will run most of his routes at Vontae Davis, but as we explored last week, this doesn’t bother us too much, as Vontae is having a down season. In all, there isn’t much separating these two guys; Crabtree is a more consistent weapon, though Amari has a slightly higher ceiling. I’ll likely have one of these guys on my main team, and I won’t be surprised if I end up with three or four pieces from this game when it’s all said and done.

Favorite Cash Game plays: Andrew Luck, Frank Gore, T.Y. Hilton, Derek Carr, Michael Crabtree

Favorite Tourney plays: All of the above, plus: Donte Moncrief, Amari Cooper, Latavius Murray

What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Premium)

Below you will find a teaser from our Premium selections. We have a lot of content available for subscribers each week, including Consensus Value Rankings, in-depth slate writeups, cheat sheets, positional spotlights, and much more.

FanDuel – Notorious’ Cheat Sheet

Week 16

Quarterback