RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week: Week 17

by RotoGrinders Last Updated 2016-12-30 14:47:52

Welcome to the RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week! Each week, this piece will pull out one matchup that stands out to us on the weekend’s slate.

Below, you will find JMToWin’s writeup of this game from his NFL Edge – the most in-depth, DFS-specific piece in the industry, in which every game is broken down from top to bottom in a DFS-specific manner – and you will also find assorted thoughts from some of the other, top minds in Daily Fantasy Sports.

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JMToWin’s NFL Edge

Saints at Falcons

Vegas-Implied Total: Falcons 31.75, Saints 24.75

KEY MATCHUPS:

Falcons Run D – 28th DVOA / 25th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O – 5th DVOA / 16th Yards per carry

Falcons Pass D – 24th DVOA / 10th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Saints Pass O – 6th DVOA / 6th Yards per pass attempt

Saints Run D – 20th DVOA / 12th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O – 1st DVOA / 10th Yards per carry

Saints Pass D – 29th DVOA / 30th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Falcons Pass O – 8th DVOA / 1st Yards per pass attempt

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WEEK 17 FACTORS:

Saints: The Saints have nothing to play for, but they will continue to play hard. There is also an outside chance that this is the last time Sean Payton will coach this team (as he could be traded to the Rams this offseason), which creates a bit of narrative.

Falcons: The Falcons are trying to secure a first-round bye. They need a win to guarantee that they are locked into that spot. Expect max effort on this side of the ball.

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I have hardly rostered Julio Jones all season. While I have missed out on a number of games in which he hit value, I have missed out on only one game all season that could be counted as a “weekend ruined if you faded him” spot. The big reason for this, as you will know by now, is that Julio has had almost no red zone usage all season. While Jordy Nelson has 28 red zone targets, with 15 targets inside the 10-yard-line, Julio has six red zone targets, with three inside the 10-yard-line. Kyle Shanahan and Matt Ryan have been perfectly content this season to allow teams to shift their focus toward Julio in the red zone, and to look elsewhere in their play calling as a result.

With that said, this is a tremendous spot for Julio this week. He seems to be close to 100% healthy, this is likely to be a back-and-forth game, and the Falcons have to anticipate that the Seahawks will handle the 49ers – which means they need this win in order to lock up a valuable first round bye. I expect Shanahan to scheme the ball to Julio early and often in this one, allowing him to carry the team inside the 20 – even if he’s not given many opportunities to score from there. I have no idea if I will actually end up rostering Julio this week, but I do know that I like him more this week than I have in a while, simply because his floor appears to be fairly high in this spot, against a New Orleans team that struggles to defend all areas of the field.

Last time these teams faced, Devonta Freeman accounted for 19 touches, 200+ yards, and a touchdown, while Tevin Coleman accounted for 15 touches, 89 yards, and three touchdowns. If New Orleans sells out again this week to stop Julio – as they did last time – expect the Falcons to take advantage by attacking the Saints through the air with running backs, as the Saints rank 31st in DVOA covering running backs out of the backfield, and while they have tightened up their run defense as the season has gone along, they are still attackable in this area. While Julio has six red zone targets all year, Devonta has 16 (he also has five targets inside the 10-yard-line, to go with 26 carries inside the 10-yard-line and 16 carries inside the five-yard-line – ranking fourth and fifth in the NFL, respectively). Tevin Coleman has 10 carries of his own inside the 10-yard-line. The only thing preventing either of these guys from being lock-and-load options this week is their split workload. But if the Falcons reach their lofty Vegas-implied total, a couple of these touchdowns should be accounted for by these two guys. I like both this weekend.

I’ll put Taylor Gabriel in the “tourney-viable” bucket, as people seem to think his role has changed now that Julio is back; Gabriel is locked into five or six targets regardless, and if you liked him a few weeks ago, you should still like him now, as he should be lower-owned this week, and his upside remains high. His floor, of course, is low.

And while I do not typically isolate quarterbacks during these full-game breakdowns, it is worth noting that Matt Ryan has not topped 35 pass attempts since Week 6 (and is unlikely to top 35 attempts this week, as the Falcons can easily attack on the ground), but he still remains one of the strongest floor plays on the weekend. A 300-yard, three-touchdown game is less likely for Ryan than for, say, Aaron Rodgers (or Drew Brees, or maybe even Blake Bortles), but he can certainly get there, and he carries a high floor.

Brees will be looking to close out this season on a high note on the other side, and while he has been up and down all season away from home (which, of course, is not unexpected), and has even been up and down on a week to week basis, he retains his upside – which is as high as any quarterback in football.

The best way to attack Atlanta is with running backs – both on the ground and through the air. Over the last two weeks, Mark Ingram has seen twice as many snaps as Tim Hightower, and we can expect that to continue this week, as the Saints seem to have finally stopped punishing Ingram for whatever the heck they were punishing him. While the Falcons have faced the second-fewest running back rush attempts in the NFL this year, they have allowed the most catches, the most receiving yards, and the second-most receiving touchdowns in the league to running backs. As long as the usage is there for Ingram this week, he’ll be a strong play.

The best way to attack Atlanta outside of running backs is to the short left side of the field. The Falcons rank dead last in this area of the field (DVOA – barely ahead of the Panthers), which is a bit unexciting, in terms of upside. With that said, the left side of the field is where Michael Thomas lines up most often, and the Falcons have allowed 16 touchdowns through the air to wide receivers this year – which is a fine number to target. Brandin Cooks, Michael Thomas, and Willie Snead are all slightly lower-floor options than their price tags would indicate, simply because this offense spreads the ball around so much, and the best way to attack Atlanta is with running backs anyway. But it is also highly likely that at least one of these three posts a really nice fantasy day. My money would be on Thomas, but Cooks certainly has as high a ceiling as any wide receiver on the slate, and Snead cannot be discounted, either.

Favorite cash game plays: Matt Ryan, Devonta Freeman, Julio Jones, Drew Brees, Mark Ingram, Michael Thomas

Favorite tourney plays: All of the above, plus: Tevin Coleman, Taylor Gabriel, Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead

What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Premium)

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FanDuel – Notorious’ Cheat Sheet

Quarterback

There are three quarterbacks on my radar this week and they are all expensive. I am giving the smallest edge to Aaron Rodgers. The Lions have been one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL this season and the Packers are basically in a win or go home situation (I fully expect the Redskins to beat the Giants).