RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week - Week 4

by JM Tohline (JMToWin) Last Updated 2016-10-03 03:11:25

Welcome to the RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week! Each week, this piece will pull out one matchup that stands out to us on the weekend’s slate. Below, you will find JMToWin’s writeup of this game from his NFL Edge – the most in-depth, DFS-specific piece in the industry, in which every game is broken down from top to bottom in a DFS-specific manner – and you will also find assorted thoughts from some of the other, top minds in Daily Fantasy Sports. To access the NFL Edge in its entirety, take our Premium package out for a free, seven-day test drive!

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Lions at Bears

The Lions are allowing the most yards-per-carry in the NFL.

The Lions are allowing the eighth-most yards-per-attempt in the NFL.

The Lions currently rank 32nd in pass defense DVOA and 27th in run defense DVOA.

What about the other side of this matchup?

The Bears are almost exactly middle of the pack in both YPC allowed and YPA allowed, but they rank 26h in both pass defense and run defense DVOA.

The Lions also rank second in the NFL in “situation neutral” pace (a fact that seems to be going a bit overlooked by the public at the moment). And while the Bears’ offense tries to slow things down when they can (29th in “situation neutral” pace), they have found themselves in so many holes this year, they actually rank sixth in overall pace. This game could also go overlooked to an extent by the DFS community, with an Over/Under of 46.5 Even with there only being 12 games on the main, Sunday slate, there are three games that currently have a higher Over/Under (Carolina at Atlanta, New Orleans at San Diego, and Kansas City at Pittsburgh). This makes this a great spot to uncover things we can target.

The first place to look, of course, is the place very few people will overlook: Jordan Howard. I don’t play much season-long fantasy these days, but I am still in four leagues I have been in for a while. I’m not very good in those leagues, but I did pick up Jordan Howard two weeks ago (and I tried to trade for him in the fourth league, where someone else already owned him), as he just looked so much better than Jeremy Langford, and I figured it was only a matter of time until he got his opportunity. Now that Langford is out, that timeline has been accelerated. My point, of course, is that this is not just some third-string scrub who is only rosterable because of usage; this is a guy who was probably going to take over this backfield pretty quickly anyway, and who shapes up as an excellent play this week. Remember: the main formula we should be using in assessing plays is Talent, Matchup, Opportunity, and Price. Howard has positive grades on all four fronts this week.

While I am writing this on Wednesday morning, I doubt the following sentence would be any different if I were writing this on Saturday night:

The quarterback situation this week is a bit murky for the Bears. Because, you see, if you withhold injury information, you probably give yourself a big advantage (Football according to John Fox). Which, by the way, can you imagine what it would be like to be John Fox? You get fired from the Broncos and they win a Super Bowl as soon as you leave. You run a bunch of on-field talent out of town in Chicago. And then you can’t win games. Awesome.

Anyhow, I’m not interested in the quarterback on the Bears’ side regardless of who pulls the start, and I also do not think the outlook on either side is impacted much.

In looking up the numbers for Alshon Jeffery last year against the Lions, I was reminded that this is the same matchup that brought me a 12th-place finish in the Millionaire Maker last season. In the first game between these two teams last year, we talked in the NFL Edge (and again on the Friday night Round Table with myself, Jeff Collins, and Adam Levitan) about how this game had a much lower Over/Under than it should have – which is probably the position we find ourselves in again. In that game, Alshon went 8-147-1 on 11 targets – a reminder that while Darius Slay is good, he’s not a guy we absolutely have to avoid. (I will point out that we should not underestimate Slay. Most of the big stats Jordy Nelson racked up last week came from the Packers getting him matched up on linebackers, and his touchdown against Slay came on a play on which the refs missed a clear offensive pass interference, as Jordy pushed off just before the ball arrived.) Regardless of who starts at QB this weekend, Alshon is firmly in play.

We can also look to Kevin White as a high-upside tourney flier in this one. White has pathetic efficiency on the year (only 13 catches and 132 yards on a whopping 27 targets), but even before game flow forced 14 targets his way last week, he had target totals of seven and six through the first two weeks of the season. He could easily see another seven-plus targets in this one, and while his floor remains low, he has the athletic talent to pop off for a big game against a secondary that is very weak away from Slay.

The final spot to look in this game is Zach Miller. Detroit ranks 27th in tight end DVOA so far this season, and Miller is a dependable piece of this offense. Especially if Cutler is back in, I expect something more like the four to five targets Miller had the first couple weeks, but another nine targets is not out of the question – especially if Hoyer is the one slinging the ball.

The Lions’ offense is a DFS gift right now, in that there is a very narrow field of players worth considering, as their usage so far has been pretty straightforward. I’ll start at the top:

The Lions currently rank seventh in the NFL in pass attempts, while ranking 24th in rushing attempts. Matthew Stafford has thrown the ball 39, 40, and 41 times to start the season. He is one of the top plays on the weekend, regardless of price.

Marvin Jones has target totals of ten, 11, and eight. His worst game this year yielded 85 yards. He is sure to be chalky this week, after posting such a massive game last weekend, but he’s certainly in play anyway against a banged-up secondary, in what should be a high-scoring game.

Eric Ebron has target totals of five, seven, and eight to begin the year. He is an integral part of this offense, and the Bears rank 28th in DVOA against the tight end.

The one tricky spot is the running back position. Theo Riddick received nine targets last week with the Lions in comeback mode, but he failed as a lead back, amassing only nine yards on ten carries. Meanwhile, Dwayne Washington had ten carries of his own and picked up 38 yards – looking very good in the process. One thing that stood out to me in re-watching this game on Tuesday was that the Lions appear to be comfortable deploying Washington freely in this offense. One instance in particular that highlighted this was a play on which Washington was originally lined up at wide receiver; Stafford changed the play, motioned Washington into the backfield, then handed the ball off to him. It was the sort of versatility – and the sort of comfort level in the offense – that many rookies do not show, and it bodes well for his usage moving forward. While Ameer Abdullah was never particularly useful himself, in spite of his talent – and we should therefore be cautious on Washington – I also think we will see more usage for Washington this weekend than many are expecting, with a solid showing against a beat-up Bears run D.

Guys I like in cash games: Jordan Howard, Alshon Jeffery, Zach Miller, Matthew Stafford, Marvin Jones, Eric Ebron

Guys I like in tourneys: Everyone listed above, plus: Kevin White, Dwayne Washington, Theo Riddick

What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Premium)

Below you will find a couple of writeups taken from our Premium. We have a lot of premium content available for subscribers each week, including Consensus Value Rankings, in-depth slate writeups, cheat sheets, positional spotlights, and much more.

FanDuel – boggslite’s RB Spotlight: Cash Game Highlight

Theo Riddick – Detroit Lions – $6,600 – If you’re looking for value at running back this week, Theo Riddick instantly becomes one of my top options in the sub-$7,000 range. Known more for his involvement in Detroit’s passing game, Theo Riddick has received a larger role in the offense in the absence of Ameer Abdullah, especially in the red zone, where he has received 30% of Detroit’s RZ touches this season.

After rough performance in last week in which he ran for just 9 yards on 10 carries against a stout Green Bay run defense, Riddick was still heavily used in the passing game, where he turned 9 targets into 7 receptions for 39 yards. Riddick’s mediocre fantasy output was overshadowed by nearly scoring a touchdown however; and he is a prime candidate to bounce back this week facing a depleted Bears defense that was torched for 450 total yards of offense. Game flow could be a major issue for Riddick this week and he has begun to cede carries to Dwyane Washington, but there’s no reason to assume Riddick can’t easily return value in a game Detroit should have no problems moving the ball down field.

DraftKings – Notorious’ Weekly Cheat Sheet

Quarterback