RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week: Week 8
Welcome to the RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week! Each week, this piece will pull out one matchup that stands out to us on the weekend’s slate. Below, you will find JMToWin’s writeup of this game from his NFL Edge – the most in-depth, DFS-specific piece in the industry, in which every game is broken down from top to bottom in a DFS-specific manner. Thoughts from other RotoGrinders Premium contributors are also included.
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Panthers at Buccaneers
Vegas-Implied Total: Buccaneers 23.25, Panthers 21.25
KEY MATCHUPS:
Buccaneers Run D – 17th DVOA / 14th Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O – 25th DVOA / 29th Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D – 32nd DVOA / 29th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Panthers Pass O – 21st DVOA / 15th Yards per pass attempt
Panthers Run D – 5th DVOA / 8th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O – 20th DVOA / 25th Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D – 15th DVOA / 14th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Buccaneers Pass O – 4th DVOA / 4th Yards per pass attempt
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The Buccaneers do everything wrong in pass coverage. They rank dead last in adjusted sack rate, and yet, they blitz at one of the lowest rates in the league. And in addition to getting no pressure on the quarterback (and failing to adjust for this with blitzes), they run one of the zone-heaviest defenses in the NFL – which allows plenty of time and opportunity for receivers to scrape free, and for the quarterback to find them. This has led to the Bucs ranking 32nd in pass defense DVOA, 29th in yards allowed per pass attempts, third in fantasy points allowed per game to quarterbacks, ninth in targets to wide receivers (in spite of an early bye), third in receptions allowed to wide receivers (first in receptions per game), and fourth in yards allowed to wide receivers.
While we can pick apart Cam Newton every which way, the reality is, he plays behind one of the worst lines in the NFL, and there will be ups and downs when that is the case. Last week, against a Chicago team that ranks seventh in adjusted sack rate and limits the deep ball, Cam had a bad game. But when you look at what he did against Detroit (17th in adjusted sack rate), Philadelphia (18th in adjusted sack rate), and New England (21st in adjusted sack rate), you realize just how enormous his upside is in the spot. Because I do not pay attention to outside noise while writing the NFL Edge, I have no idea if Cam is shaping up to gain momentum toward chalk this week or to instead go largely overlooked – but he’s one of my favorite plays. With a tremendous aerial matchup and seven or more carries in four straight games, he’s cash-game playable for me in this spot.
Tampa Bay ranks third in the NFL in pace of play, and only three teams have allowed more opponent plays per game than the Bucs have allowed. Given the ineffectiveness of the Panthers’ ground attack and the ease with which the Panthers should be able to attack through the air, I not only expect a great game from Cam, but I also expect there to be enough passing volume for the receivers to get in on the action.
Kelvin Benjamin has topped six targets only two times this year, but the downfield nature of these targets are keeping his upside intact. I’m hoping for eight targets for Kelvin in this game, and I think he gets there; if he does, he brings big upside to the table.
While Kelvin has seen more than six targets on only two occasions, Devin Funchess has seen eight or more targets in five consecutive games. Funchess is being used as more of a possession receiver between the 20s, which gives him a higher floor than most are assuming, and his 25% slot rate puts him in good position to burn the Bucs as slot receivers have been doing all season. Ed Dickson and Russell Shepard are not seeing a reliable enough workload to catch my eye as much as these other weapons, but I wouldn’t hate either of these if you felt compelled to play them.
Jonathan Stewart would have to do something massive for me to have any interest in him moving forward. The place to look in this backfield is Christian McCaffrey, who is still seeing four to seven carries every game, and who is a near-lock for six or more targets. I’ll note that McCaffrey’s usage falls short of Kamara’s, while their skill sets are the same and their price on both sites is essentially the same.
I’m waiting for Doug Martin to have a good matchup, after having a limited role vs the Patriots, then playing on the road against the tough run defenses of Arizona and Buffalo. He has looked great, but this is another week in which he is not set up for success. This game should stay close enough that I remain intrigued by Martin in tourneys given that he provides one of the rare instances of “a guy with a low price tag, low ownership, and a genuine path to a hundred yards and two touchdowns,” but he’s not the sort of “sure bet” we would optimally like to roster.
When it comes to “sure bets,” the targets for Mike Evans (9.7 per game – fourth in the NFL) are about as sure as bets come.
A lot of the Sean McDermott principles remain in place on this Panthers defense, but this is a different defense than the Bucs saw last week against McDermott and the Bills. While the Bills have not yet started layering in the zone blitzes that McDermott is known for, the Panthers have remained one of the more blitz-heavy teams in the league. With the Buccaneers protecting Jameis Winston well (sixth best in adjusted sack rate, with the Bucs giving up the fourth-fewest sacks in the league), this creates an interesting situation – essentially allowing Jameis more time against fewer men in coverage. Because of this, I expect Mike Evans to turn his targets into nice fantasy production, and I expect Jameis to post a nice game as well in response to the big game I expect from Cam on the other side.
The final pieces of this Bucs passing attack (Cameron Brate, DeSean Jackson, and Adam Humphries) remain in play as well, to varying degrees. Humphries is obviously the least appealing of the bunch, given the low-upside routes he runs; he would need an unpredictable touchdown in order to pay off. DeSean has quietly seen six or more targets in every game this year, and the potential for a failed Panthers blitz to turn into a big play for DeSean raises the chances of him hitting his ceiling. And Cameron Brate has seen eight or more targets in three consecutive games, while seeing nine red zone targets and three looks inside the 10 – giving him a great floor/ceiling combo. I’m honestly not sure what to make of the O.J. Howard blowup last week, as six targets are six targets no matter how you slice it. It’s impossible to bank on usage here – but Howard has proven that he can hit if the usage is provided.
Guys I Like In Cash Games: Cam Newton, Kelvin Benjamin, Devin Funchess, Mike Evans
Guys I Like In Tourneys: All of the above, plus: Christian McCaffrey, Jameis Winston, Doug Martin, DeSean Jackson, Cameron Brate
What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Premium)
Below you will find a couple of teasers from our Premium selections. We have a lot of content available for subscribers each week, including Consensus Value Rankings, in-depth slate writeups, positional spotlights, and much more.
NFL Expert Survey
Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?
Notorious: Christian McCaffrey is on pace to catch 100 passes. With the Panthers averaging 2.8 yards per carry, eventually they should shy away from giving Jonathan Stewart so many touches. C-Mac could be in for a big second half of the season.
JMToWin: While the Panthers blitz at one of the highest rates in the league, the Buccaneers’ offensive line ranks sixth in adjusted sack rate and fourth in sacks allowed. This will give Jameis Winston time to find open receivers against lighter coverage on the back end – which increases the likelihood of this game shooting out, and of there being plenty of fantasy goodness on both teams.
What is your favorite correlation of the week and why?
Notorious: Jameis Winston / Mike Evans / Christian McCaffrey – This is my favorite game stack of the week. The Panthers can’t run the ball and they are very good at stopping the run. Don’t be surprised if both teams turn to the passing game, which results in more yards per play and more clock stoppages.
JMToWin: Panthers/Buccaneers game stack – The best spot on the slate for offense may very well end up being the Panthers/Bucs. The Bucs are exactly the type of team Cam can be expected to shred (see NFL Edge), while Jameis sets up nicely in this matchup as well (again: see NFL Edge). I expect this to turn into a back-and-forth affair, and for plenty of fantasy goodness to be found on both sides.