Stuff Happened - Week 11 Edition
Fine. We can talk about Mass Multi-Entry. Again. Just stop with the tweets!
I fully intend to do a Fantasy Football Millionaire audit (formally the Millionaire Maker) at the end of this season, just as I did last season. I do this not to prove some sort of point. I don’t really care what the results say because I’m with the majority of players whose main goal is fun. I don’t play enough volume for my profit to justify my hours, to make this a viable “business”. To me, just make it uniformly legal, and I’ll be happy.
I do the yearly audit because I have a strong “know it all” tendency, and to support that “know it all” addiction, I need information. Unfortunately, it is impossible to know it all, but if you know the most of everyone in the room, it suffices. I do not form an opinion, and then go find information to support my opinion. I find the information and form my ideas based on that information. With regard to mass multi-entry, everyone has their take, data be damned. I’d like to exist in the middle them, with the data as my opinion.
So, what is my current opinion on mass multi-entry? I know it’s not a panacea, not a miracle drug. I know 150 entries does not make a losing player win. In fact, I know a losing player can lose much more and much quicker multi-entering in large quantities. This paragraph, I know to be true.
I don’t believe that mass multi-entry gives anyone an unfair advantage. Each entry costs an entry fee, and I don’t believe having two entries by the same person makes them any more likely to win in aggregate than the sum of their individual win probability. That is, a second entry doesn’t make the first one better. This is because I believe, with a normal-sized NFL slate, such as the Sunday main slate, you can’t “cover” all the options, even with 500 entries, let alone 150.
I think that with smaller data sets, mass multi-entry might make it possible to blanket the field. For instance, I wonder if 150 entries into a two-game slate tournament would allow you to effectively “cover all bases.” I know you can’t come close to literally covering all the options, even in a two game slate, but with just a couple decisions, you could do a pretty good job. I’m not sure, but I think so.
I struggle with this problem: the best fantasy football players, in a skill game, should win, so how do we determine how much of mass multi-entry success is the MME, if any, and how much is the player carving out the most optimal player pools? To this point, I have no good answer.
Regardless, I will not rest on my laurels with information. I am perpetually in gather mode. To this end (and truthfully, just to throw the MME Truthers a bone), I’ll breakdown the FF Millionaire this week. Still, it is one single data point, and yes, it doesn’t carry the same weight as a year’s worth of data.
For instance, here are the top five finishers in each of the Millionaire Makers last year and the number of entries they had in that tournament. You’ll see that despite the entry limit being 500 then versus 150 now, the MME community had very little success last year. Among those with 100+ entries, they took one third, and three fifths, out of 170 slots.
I realize that this year, we’ve seen more success by the multi-entry community, at least where it pertains to top finishes. I will consider that too, when the season concludes. If the contention is that having more entries gives you an inherent and unfair advantage, there’s no choice but to weigh last season’s data more heavily than this season’s. Still, it all matters.
With no further ado, let’s get into the Week 11 FF Millionaire:
The Fantasy Football Millionaire was a $27 buy-in this week. The maximum allowed entries would have been 171,200, good for $4,622,400 in buy-in and a rake of $622,400. Fortunately for us players, there were only 166,641 entrants. That meant $4,499,307 in buy-in and a lower rake, $499,307 (11%).
We know the maximum entries from one account is 150, and we will define mass multi-entry as 100 or more entries. Fitting under that criterion are 131 accounts mass multi-entering, submitting 18,464 total lineups for a buy-in of $498,528. Of those 131 MMEers, 40 were profitable, 91 weren’t. A full 69% of the mass multi-entry community failed to capitalize on the perceived advantage that bulk of entries provides.
Those 18,464 lineups were profitable for the mass multi-entry crowd this week, as they took down a $77,323.17 profit, which was a 16% return on their $498,528 investment. Of their $575,851.17 in gross winnings, $100,382.50 were won by one guy, themasterson, who took down $75,000 for third and another $25,000 spread through 120 entries. He missed on only 29 of 150 entries. The remainder of the 130 mass multi-enterers netted a loss of $23,059.33.
While mass multi-entry netted a profit as a group, it was driven largely by one person, who totaled 17% of the total winnings for the group. When removing a single outlier turns a profit to a loss, it makes the data hard to interpret. Beyond the outlier issue is the question of how much of that winning is attributable to the skill of the player versus the number of their entries, if any. I will say unequivocally that cashing 121 of your 150 entries (with another six within five points) isn’t luck. It isn’t thanks to the quantity of entries either. That is simply player evaluation at its pinnacle.
Stuff Happened, Week 11 Edition
The points are gone again. Not sure what last week’s aberration was all about, but the four lowest-scoring optimal lineups have come in the last five weeks, including this week’s 263.50.
Week 1 – 281.40
Week 2 – 269.32
Week 3 – 300.38
Week 4 – 275.92
Week 5 – 277.70
Week 6 – 303.04
Week 7 – 268.22
Week 8 – 254.62
Week 9 – 258.92
Week 10 – 283.00
Week 11 – 263.50
There were two 30-point scorers at the quarterback position Sunday and they were head-to-head this week. While Aaron Rodgers outscored Kirk Cousins in raw points, it was Cousins’s low salary that allowed him to sub into the optimal lineup, for only 1.96 fewer points. Beyond them, were two QBs scoring 28-and-change (D. Prescott & T. Brady), while no other quarterback had even 26 points.
At running back, as you can see, three backs hit the 30-point mark (David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, and Fat Rob Kelley). There was a precipitous drop-off from the third to fourth highest scorer, with the next closest running back (R. Jennings) falling 10+ points behind R. Kelley’s 34.7 point Freakin’ Weekend. Then, James White, the fifth highest scoring back this weekend, was another 5+ point behind Jennings.
These low scoring weeks have followed the same pattern, with running back scoring up and wide receiver scoring down. Week 11 was no different. No wide receiver had even 27 points on the main slate. Just three had even 24 points (Pierre Garcon, Dez Bryant, and Rishard Matthews). Garcon and Matthews were the two leading WRs in receiving yards, with Matthews’s 122 leading the way, and they were two of just five total 100-yard wide outs on the day. Bryant, meanwhile, was the only receiver with multiple scores. Week 11 marks Bryant’s second time in the optimal lineup in four weeks, and his third week in four as a top seven scorer at the position.
Jared Cook, in his first action since Week 3, led the position with six receptions, 105 yards and a score. He was one of three tight ends with six receptions, one of two with 100 yards, and one of 10 with a score. All of that was available to you in Week 11 at a bargain basement ownership of 0.11%!
At defense, the Steelers paced the position with 22 points, leading the Vikings 20 and the Lions 19, despite the latter two squads recording multiple scores. It was the Steelers eight sacks, two turnovers and nine points allowed to go with their score, which more than made the difference.
Lastly, for those that game stack (ahem…MME…ahem), this was a good week. The primetime Packer-Redskin game produced both 30-point QBs, the #3 and #6 RB, the #1 and #6 WR (plus three more receivers over 11), and the #1 and #8 TE. Unsurprisingly, the defenses ranked tied for 10th and last. Four of nine players from the optimal lineup were from the Sunday night game, and if you had stacked A. Rodgers. R. Kelley, J. Starks, P. Garcon, J. Crowder, D. Jackson, J. Cook, and J. Reed with the Steelers defense, you would have finished in twelfth place in the FF Millionaire.
Speaking of that tournament.
Making a Millionaire
As we mentioned extensively above, the FF Millionaire was taken down by two-entry Moykiss. (His other entry finished in the 1300s for a $150 cash.) One can’t help but wonder, now that he’s a millionaire, if he’ll continue to get kisses from Moy, or if we should expect money to change him, opting for Super Models, Actresses and other varying celebutants? Only time will tell.
His lineup featured all three of the 30-point running backs (Johnson, Bell, Kelley) as well as the optimal quarterback (Cousins). His winning total, 223.10, was only 85% of the optimal score, though. Despite nailing two positions, he had none of the three optimal receivers, which cost him nearly 13 points total. Selecting the wrong tight end in the Sunday night game cost him another near 12 points, and opting for the Cardinals over the Steelers (who he had in his other lineup) was a 16-point mistake.
Congrats to Moykiss, on overcoming the daunting odds of 131 mass multi-entry sharks swimming in the FFMillionaire waters, and taking down the top prize.
Grout for a Shout
My Grout for a Shout situation this week was a story of a man overcoming adversity, as I managed sustain not one, but two game-ending injuries and still was able to pull within one week of JMtoWin, who took the most owned player in the FFMillionaire this week, Martellus Bennett and an “L”.
I originally selected Zach Miller, but upon hearing forecasts for wind, opted to swap. When he caught an early score and got out to 15.1 points, my evaluation of that swap was this.
My pivot was to C.J. Prosise. When he ripped off a 13.2 point run in the first quarter, I added this to my evaluation of the swap.
Neither guy saw the second half of their game. Miller ended up notching a 3.974 PT/$K on his $3,800 salary, before breaking his foot and ending his season. Prosise put up 16.1 on a salary of $4,200, good for 3.833 PT/$K. He also wasn’t as chalky as I had suspected, thanks to plenty of Thomas Rawls news polluting the Rotowire waves. He ended up as the fourth most owned back in the FFMillionaire, with just a tenth of a point more ownership than DeMarco Murray. His regular season ended Sunday as well, thanks to a shoulder injury.
As to the Week 11 competition, we had a single, first-time winner, neither of which has been that common of late. DFSProdigy was the only person to pick Fat Rob, and he’s due a Fat Shout for it. First, I think we need to note the higher level thinking here. Certainly a guy with the nickname “Fat” was going to be chalk on Thanksgiving. What does DFSProdigy do? He picks him the the week before Thanksgiving, locking in a low ownership. A true contrarian. Congrats DFSProdigy. In your honor, I’ve brought a friend in to Shout.
We have a new leader in the season-long standings as well. justcorbin is just in first, just by himself, justly. He has latched onto the cheap tight end strategy as well, selecting Vance McDonald this week and Ladarius Green last week. McDonald’s 5.037 PT/$K on $2,700 didn’t boost up justcorbin’s overall score that much, sitting currently at 4.183 PT/$K. It did help him leap over (still in second) SwaguarsFan, who logged 3.833 PT/$K with C.J. Prosise. What really helped justcorbin was #1, #3, and #5 tumbling this week (daddywarbuttocks – M. Bennett, JGroove5 – J. Kerley, & ggman0831 – T. Hill). In fact, the two guys currently in third and fourth place, TherealTG and geoffoz were in sixth and ninth place, respectively, coming into this week. All they had to do to move up was nothing at all!
Also, the two-thirds mark was eight entries this week and it will be that as well next week. Two gentlemen, Datperpdaron and reed1206 have seven entries and can easy get back over the threshold next week. Datperpdaron, specifically, sports a season-long PT/$K of 4.203, which would be good for first place, if he qualified.
The second-half standings, two weeks in, are led by RoofingMan. Frankly, it’s not that close. He’s got a full PT/$K lead on Trevmitch27 and the rest of the field. DFSProdigy and justcorbin fall in third and fourth.
