Three MLB Stacks to Target: Friday, August 16th
Stacking has become a common strategy used in tournaments on FanDuel. The concept is simple – roster multiple players from teams with the best MLB odds to score the most runs. This article will take a closer look at teams on FanDuel’s main slate with three of the highest implied run totals.
Colorado Rockies (7.7 implied run total)
The Rockies opened the day with a 7.0 implied run total and have seen that number shoot up to as high as 7.7 runs as money continues to come in on the Rockies and the over. Colorado’s offense is expected to have no problem putting up runs against Sandy Alcantara and the Marlins bullpen.
Alcantara is the owner of a solid 4.44 ERA through 135.2 IP this season but advanced run prevention metrics (5.66 SIERA; 5.58 xFIP) view him much less favorably. While the Marlins righty’s batted ball profile is solid he generally lacks control with a walk rate (11.1%) that nearly matches his well below league average strikeout rate (16.8%). Alcantara’s lack of control has the ability to lead to blow-up performances as he’s allowed five or more runs in 30.4% of his starts this season (7-of-23).
The Rockies are likely to be the heaviest owned team of the night but ownership shouldn’t be too concentrated on a massive 15-game slate. At the very least, Colorado is the top overall stack in single entry and 3-max tournaments and they’re worthy of at least some exposure in multi-entry tournaments. You’ll need to go cheap at pitching if you want to stack Colorado’s top bats, which is no problem on this slate as we have plenty of viable value options.
Boston Red Sox (7.7 implied run total)
Similar to the Colorado Rockies, I expect the Boston Red Sox to be one of the highest owned stacks of the night yet I’m not overly concerned about ownership concentration on a full slate. You may remember Baltimore Orioles righty Aaron Brooks from the thrashing he took just last week when he allowed nine earned runs and four HRs in just three innings pitched against the Astros. Houston then went on to score 14 more runs and hit two more HRs as they beat Baltimore 23-2. It’s unfair to expect the Red Sox to match Houston’s ridiculous offensive output but the recent example helps show what type of upside they have in this matchup – Brooks has already given up 19 HRs in just 72.1 IP this season and the Orioles bullpen own a league-high 2.10 HR/9.
Boston’s projected lineup has plenty of power in it as six of their hitters own ISO’s north of .204 against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons. Five of those hitters – Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, and Mitch Moreland – have ISO’s of .241 or higher. The sixth hitter – Jackie Bradley Jr. – has the least power (.204 ISO) of the bunch but he’s also extremely cheap and is a strong way to differentiate your stack without having to sacrifice too much upside.
New York Yankees (5.8 implied run total)
Things drop off quickly after Colorado and Boston as the Yankees own the third-highest implied run total of the slate at 5.8 runs. While the Yankees have a lower run expectation than the Rockies and Red Sox they arguably have more power upside in a home matchup against Aaron Civale. Civale has pitched well for the Indians through three starts but he’ll get his toughest test of the season on Friday night at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.
Gary Sanchez is finally back and healthy for New York but Aaron Judge is struggling mightily hitting just .152 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 12 BB, and 29 K over his last 21 games. Judge’s recent struggles have resulted in just a $3,800 price tag on FanDuel which makes him one of the better point-per-dollar options on the entire slate. DJ LeMahieu and Gio Urshela have been hot but my preferred four-man Yankees stack is Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, and Glyber Torres. Mike Tauchman is unlikely to draw a good lineup spot but has a ton of power and is a strong play if looking to stack the bottom half of the order.