Three Sneaky Home Run Calls: Monday, July 29th
Nothing accrues more fantasy points than home runs, this we know. But what is even better than rostering a player who goes yard? Rostering a player who goes yard that not a lot of other DFS players have in their lineups. The goal of this article is to find some sneaky home run calls with the help of some of our most useful RotoGrinders tools, such as MLB Weather, PlateIQ, and MLB Ballpark Factors.
HOME RUN CALLS
1) Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves
Opposing pitcher: Patrick Corbin
FanDuel price tag: $2,400
FanDuel position: OF
This is easily my favorite game to pivot off of what will likely be Coors Field chalk. While we have two decent pitchers going here, the weather is very favorable for hitting. As you can see from our weather page, the temperatures should be in the high 80’s during game time with wind blowing out to left-center.
And that wind is blowing out to the part of the field that makes it even more advantageous for right-handed hitters. Our ballpark factors show that this is an above average park for righty home runs, something that should be exacerbated by that wind.
The strikeout risk here for Riley is real. He has struck out 33.3% of the time in his 54 plate appearances against LHP this season. However, if he does make contact, it is almost certainly going to be hit hard and in the air (which sets up perfectly against Corbin’s groundball lean). Here are the numbers he has put up in the limited sample in this split in 2019: .490 wOBA, .468 ISO, 13.8% groundballs, 34.5% line drives, 51.7% flyballs, 58.6% hard contact.
This is a great way to get some cheap power in your lineup that few will play on this slate. And even if he struggles against Corbin, he should have an at-bat or two against one of the worst bullpens in the league. As you can see from our Premium Leaderboards in PlateIQ, the Nationals bullpen has an abysmal 5.01 xFIP.
2) Anthony Rendon, Washington Nationals
Opposing pitcher: Dallas Keuchel
FanDuel price tag: $3,800
FanDuel position: 3B
Rendon probably isn’t that sneaky on most slates. But with names like Justin Turner (in Coors), Nolan Arenado (in Coors), Eugenio Suarez, and Josh Donaldson (against a lefty) on the slate, perhaps we see Rendon fall by the wayside. Besides, all of those guys mentioned are priced between $3,800-$4,300 on FanDuel tonight. I could easily see paths to Rendon being the fourth or fifth highest owned of that group.
Opposing pitcher Dallas Keuchel appears to be the same guy he always has been in terms of getting a ton of groundballs and not that many strikeouts. However, there is one specific thing I see that makes him a little more susceptible than in past years. And that is the fact he is allowing way more hard contact so far this season.
Last season for the Astros, he allowed only a 28.5% Hard% to righties. That is up to 36.4% in the split so far this season. Throw in his low strikeouts to righties (16.7%), and you’d have to think that Rendon is putting the ball into play tonight.
And Rendon is just the guy to counteract those Keuchel groundballs. In 104 plate appearances against LHP this season, Rendon has 25.8% line drives and 41.9% fly balls. Add in a ridiculous 51.6% hard contact rate, and you can see why he has posted a .453 wOBA and .322 ISO.
Call me crazy, but I think Rendon is more likely to a hit a dong tonight than any of the other third basemen on the slate.
3) Hunter Renfroe, San Diego Padres
Opposing pitcher: Who Knows
FanDuel price tag: $3,200
FanDuel position: OF
At the time I am writing this, the pitcher for the Orioles tonight is last name Knows, first name Who. I am seeing the name of Gabriel Ynoa thrown around, but again, who knows. We don’t really care as long as it isn’t Asher Wojciechowski.
What we do know is what we are getting from Renfroe when he steps up to the plate. A ton of power with moderate strikeout risk against LHP, and still plenty of power and a ton of strikeout risk against RHP. Here are his splits this season.
Versus RHP (260 plate appearances): .355 wOBA, .294 ISO, 46.5% fly balls, 49% hard contact, 30.4% K%
Versus LHP (82 plate appearances): .408 wOBA, .438 ISO, 54.5% fly balls, 50.9% hard contact, 18.3% K%
It is likely he sees all RHP tonight, which still gives him plenty of home run upside. With names like David Dahl ($3,400), Alex Verdugo ($3,100), and Yasiel Puig ($3,100), who is going to roster Hunter Renfroe at $3,200 instead of those guys? You mean you can get a guy with 29 home runs this season at some very low ownership on a seven-game slate? Yes please.
You can follow Andy Means on Twitter @ameansy