Thursday Night Football Betting Picks: Colts at Texans
NFL Week 12 kicks off Thursday night with an AFC South showdown between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans. The Texans are 3.5-point favorites at sports betting sites and the Over/Under is 44.5.
Thursday Night Football Betting Odds— Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
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- Colts +3.5
- Texans -3.5
- Over/Under: 45.5
60% of bets are on the Texans and 78% of bets are on the Over as of Thursday morning, per VegasInsider.
Thursday Night Football Betting Breakdown
- Indianapolis is 5-4-1 ATS (closing line) and the Over/Under is 6-4.
- Houston is 5-5 ATS and the Over/Under is 4-6.
Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans host Jacoby Brissett and the Indianapolis Colts on Thursday Night Football and first place of the AFC South is at stake.
Last week, the Texans were blown out by the Baltimore Ravens while the Colts were busy bouncing back from a Week 10 loss to the Miami Dolphins. In Week 11 the Colts beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 33-13.
It’s the last division game for the two AFC South rivals, with the Texans looking to avenge a 30-23 loss in Week 7.
Injury Report and More
Jacoby Brissett made his return against the Jaguars but only threw for 148 passing yards. Despite losing Marlon Mack, it was the Colts’ running game that got the best of Jacksonville. Mack rushed for 109 yards before leaving the game with a fractured hand, but the Colts weren’t finished on the ground. Fifth-round pick (‘16) Jonathan Williams added 117 yards of his own on only 15 carries, plus another 31 yards on one reception. Judging by Sunday, Williams is set to be the primary ball carrier Thursday night, making him an interesting DFS play in Showdown contests for Thursday Night Football.
While the Colts lose Mack, they might be getting T.Y. Hilton back. Indianapolis listed T.Y Hilton questionable Wednesday and he was a full participant at practice.
As for the Texans, wide receiver Will Fuller will be a game-time Thursday night. Fuller only caught one reception against the Colts in Week 7 before leaving with a hamstring injury. The speedy receiver hasn’t played since.
Though there’s no impending injury news regarding J.J. Watt, what bettors may not realize is just how much the Texans miss Watt. Since losing the defensive end, the Texans have taken a huge dip in Clean% (63.33%) and sack rate (5.38%), per NFL GridironIQ.
My Thursday Night Football Betting Pick: Colts +3.5 (+100)
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Given the information at hand, I want to take the Colts +3.5. Indianapolis has already gotten the best of the Texans once this season and I think they’ll have the edge to keep this within a field goal Thursday night if T.Y Hilton returns. Though they’ll be on the road this time around, the Texans pass rush isn’t as big of a concern as it once was. That’ll continue to hurt Houston if the Colts ask Brissett to pass more in lieu of losing Mack.
Thursday Football Betting Picks — Player Props
Jacoby Brissett Over 229.5 Passing Yards Yards (-112) – As mentioned earlier, I think there’s a chance the Colts opt for more passing plays with the return of T.Y. Hilton coupled by the absence of Marlon Mack.
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Duke Johnson Over 2.5 Receptions (-109) – I won’t be surprised if the Texans play from behind Thursday night. If that’s the case, Duke Johnson will be involved.
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Jonathan Williams +1300 First Touchdown (PB) – We hit McCoy +1800 on Monday night football. Let’s find some more value with another running back who has a good chance to find the end zone Thursday night.
T.Y. Hilton +1100 First Touchdown Scorer (DK) – Wait to place your bet on Hilton until he’s officially active.
Thursday Night Football Betting Picks — Monkey Knife Fight Player Props
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Over-Under 2/2 (Prize: 3x) – Deshaun Watson OVER 270.5 passing yards and Jacoby Brissett Over 235.5 passing yards.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images