Venezuela vs. Puerto Rico: World Baseball Classic Odds, Picks and Predictions
Venezuela vs. Puerto Rico Odds
| Venezuela ML | -150 |
| Puerto Rico ML | +120 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Date | Sun, Mar. 12 |
| Time | 7:00 p.m. |
| TV | FS1 |
Tonight, Venezuela and Puerto Rico will each play their second pool play contest of the 2023 World Baseball Classic at 7:00 p.m. on FS1.
Both teams enter fresh off of a win yesterday, with Venezuela defeating the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico emerging victorious against Nicaragua. This evening, Venezuela will hand the ball to Pablo Lopez, who will be opposed by Jose Berrios.
Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have priced Venezuela as -150 favorites on the moneyline in this matchup, with the over/under on the total set at 8.5 runs.
Venezuela
Lopez takes the hill
In 2022, Pablo Lopez delivered a 3.75 ERA, 3.75 xERA, 3.71 FIP, and a 1.17 WHIP in 180.0 innings of work for the Miami Marlins. However, he was much better against right-handed batters than he was against left-handed batters.
Against righties, Lopez had 2.90 FIP, 29.8% strikeout percentage, 5.3% walk rate, and a 1.01 WHIP. Facing lefties, Lopez was far less effective, with a 4.45 FIP, 18.3% strikeout percentage, 8.9% walk rate, and a 1.31 WHIP.
On Sunday, he will have the benefit of facing a right-handed heavy lineup for Puerto Rico, which features Enrique Hernandez, Emmanuel Rivera, Javier Baez, Netfali Soto, Christian Vazquez, and Martin Maldonado. If Lopez can simply limit the damage done by Francisco Lindor and MJ Melendez, he should be able to limit the damage during the early portion of this contest.
What to expect from Venezuela’s offense
As this team showcased in their win on Saturday against the Dominican Republic, Venezuela’s lineup is elite. Yesterday, this group tagged Sandy Alcantara for three earned runs in 3.2 innings of work before chasing him from the game. Venezuela’s extreme plate discipline and ability to damage on pitches in the strike zone is likely to serve them well throughout the remainder of this tournament.
If you are not in a state with legal sports betting, you can target Ronald Acuna Jr. projections using our PrizePicks promo code in a DFS game.
Puerto Rico
Berrios gets the ball
Jose Berrios, a former first round draft pick in 2012, has long been one of the most overrated MLB pitchers. In 2022, he finished the season with a 5.23 ERA, 5.11 xERA, 4.55 FIP, and a 1.42 WHIP.
His struggles against left-handed batters were particularly concerning – 5.54 FIP, 17.1% strikeout percentage, 6.0% walk rate, and a 1.48 WHIP. Facing lefties, Berrios relies heavily on a fastball, which opposing left-handed batters have consistently demolished. Last season, lefties had a .381 batting average and a .752 slugging percentage against the offering, making it one of the least effective pitches in the big leagues.
What to expect from Puerto Rico’s lineup
Puerto Rico scored nine runs in their first pool play game against Nicaragua, but they will face a much tougher task on Sunday against Lopez and the rest of the Venezuelan pitching staff.
In the early portion of this contest, Francisco Lindor is the bat to watch. Lindor had a .784 OPS and a .271 batting average against right-handed pitching in 2022.
Venezuela vs. Puerto Rico – Picks & Predictions
In this matchup, Pablo Lopez is the better starting pitcher, giving Venezuela the edge on the mound in the first few frames. Venezuela also has far more firepower offensively in this spot, with marquee names like Jose Altuve, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Anthony Santander headlining the lineup.
Expect Venezuela to get off to a strong start in this one. Trust them to have the lead after the first five innings.
PICK: Venezuela ML – First 5 innings (-150, Bet365)
Image Credit: Getty Images