The Future is Now - Week 18 NFL Futures Betting and Strategy
Great to hear another positive update on Damar Hamlin this morning. Praying he continues to improve.
We’ve reached Week 18, figured it’s time to look back on the past three months of futures betting. We started this journey in Week 4 and there have been plenty of ups and downs. Ideally, we can learn a couple lessons to take into next season.
The Good – Mahomes Separates Himself, Titans Falter and Bengals Ball Out
Plenty of positive moments and well-played situations. It won’t be the biggest payout, but the Titans to miss the playoffs bet was my favorite play. Patience is so important when placing futures bets.
- Week 6: Mahomes to win MVP (+450 on Caesars) – Patrick Mahomes is now a massive favorite to win the award, so assuming he grabs the hardware this will be our biggest payout (although we did hedge a bit in Week 16).
Josh Allen was the favorite back in Week 6 followed by a cluster of Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson. The stats for Allen and Mahomes were similar at the time, and even though Kansas City lost to Buffalo that week, Mahomes soon closed the gap. - Week 5: Titans to Miss the Playoffs (-190 on FanDuel) – This was in the “don’t bet” category heading into Week 5, with the plan being to wait until after Week 8 to lock it in. The Titans had a cupcake schedule from Week 5-8 and predictably went 3-0 during that stretch (with a bye week). They were up over -300 to make the playoffs, perfect time to swoop in and fade them.
Week 9-15 was the difficult part of the schedule for Tennessee and it went … poorly. The Titans went 2-5 and allowed the Jaguars to storm back into the AFC South race. One more loss this week and the bet cashes. - Week 13: Bengals to Win the AFC North (+240 on FanDuel) – This came down to remaining schedule vs. current form. Fortunately we were on the right side. Cincinnati will clinch this weekend assuming they take care of business at home.
The Bad – NFC South Frustrates, Packers Won’t Die and Wincing at Wentz
Several bad weeks too of course. Still kicking myself over spending so much time (and money!) on the NFC South this year.
- Week 8: Anybody but Tampa Bay to win the NFC South (pick your favorite) – I admitted at the time that I didn’t know the right answer but was confident the Bucs were the wrong one. Incorrect.
I stand by Tampa Bay not being the best team in this division and if the season was another week longer I’m sure I would’ve burned a couple more bucks on the Panthers/Saints/Falcons. But yeah, lost this one a bunch of times. - Week 10: Green Bay Under 6.5 Wins (+155 on FanDuel) – Fading Aaron Rodgers has historically been a bad idea and he resurrected Green Bay once again. This one had multiple outs too. Rodgers was dealing with a few injuries, the schedule was tough AND a transition to Jordan Love was looming. Buuut none of that mattered and the Packers are on the verge of a playoff berth.
- Week 17: Commanders to Make the Playoffs (+170 on Caesars) – I mean, we bet on Carson Wentz. This one is simple. Don’t do that.
The Devastating – Giants/Commanders in Week 13
Tried to block this one out but will rehash it one more time. The approach was to skip betting on either of these teams to make the playoffs since the moneylines for the game were better prices.
And they tie. New York gave up a game-tying TD drive to Taylor Heinicke and then both sides spent all 10 minutes of overtime shuffling back and forth like Velma searching for her glasses. Just brutal.
Takeaways
Alright, couple things to keep in mind heading into the 2023-24 season.
- Patience – Mentioned this in the Good section but want to reiterate it. So crucial to understand the futures market won’t lead to an immediate return, or even a soon-ish return in most cases. It’s a long game and it’s not for everyone.
- Mistaking uncertainty for value – Aside from avoiding frustration, this is probably the best lesson from the NFC South saga. If you think all those teams stink (and I do), then none of them are worth tangling with.
- Tracking bets – This goes for all forms of gambling but I felt it more this year writing this article, which turned out to be a nice catalogue of my wagers. Had a couple spots where I nearly bet on something that would’ve gone against a bet I’d already made. Be responsible and track everything.
That’s all for this season. If you made it this far, much appreciated. Working on an NBA version of this article so look out for that soon!