Wild Card Weekend: Best Bets & Player Props at Online Sportsbooks
After a relatively successful regular season with NFL props (+7.44 units), the bankroll purse strings are opening up on Wild Card Weekend. Six playoff games in one weekend? Yes, please! Online betting sites are chock full of betting options this weekend — bettors are treated to a cornucopia of wagering permutations. Attempting to stay disciplined, I am going to offer my favorite prop choice from each game in the opening round of the NFL Playoffs.
Make sure to check out our NFL Wild Card Lines and Betting Picks and NFL Playoff Prop Leaders to prep for Wild Card Weekend.
NFL Wild Card Weekend Player Props
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills
Stefon Diggs Over/Under 90.5 Receiving Yards
For my first prop, I am going to keep it very simple. The postseason is exactly why the Bills went out and got Stefon Diggs to be their alpha receiver. Diggs led the NFL in targets (166), receptions (127), and yards (1535). The metamorphosis of the Bills from defensive stalwart to explosive offense resulted in the second-ranked scoring offense in the NFL (31.3 PPG) and Josh Allen quietly asserting himself as one of the top signal-callers in the league.
The Colts’ defense is no slouch but I am counting on Diggs to get there through volume alone. With only a 9.2 yard per target ratio, Diggs is not running down the sideline on go routes to accumulate yards. Instead, Diggs constantly finds space underneath and with shorter routes. Given the ramifications of a playoff game, Buffalo will put the pedal to the metal throughout this game. Diggs will be in for a full workload — expected to see double-digit targets from Josh Allen. No monkeying around for me with this game, give me the best player to continue performing at a high level. I will take the over at BetMGM for the best price and yards combination.
[Bet Over 90.5 Receiving Yards -110 at BetMGM]
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Chris Carson Over/Under 59.5 Rushing Yards
A quick look at this line for Chris Carson might intrigue bettors given Carson’s status as Seattle’s top back. Yet, the Seahawks now feature a pretty crowded backfield with Carlos Hyde likely making a return for their matchup versus the Rams. With Carson, Hyde, and even Penny suiting up — Carson’s guaranteed workload is not as secure as it was earlier in the season.
Further, the Seahawks will face one of, if not the NFL’s top defense on Saturday afternoon. The Rams bring a defense that allowed a putrid 3.8 yards per rushing attempt throughout the regular season. The Rams are so stout against pretty much every offensive category — that Carson might be the least of their problems. Against the 49ers in Week 17, Carson amassed a pretty pedestrian 44 yards on 11 carries. Surely, Carson is the Seahawks’ best option in the backfield. That might not matter, though, if the Seahawks find themselves at a deficit.
With an implied total of 42 at the time of this writing, points might be tough to come by. I don’t see Carson putting together a big game. Give me the under.
[Bet Under 59.5 Rushing Yards -105 at BetMGM]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team
J.D. McKissic Over/Under 4.5 Receptions
I scoured the books to find the best price on J.D. McKissic and his reception total. The status of Alex Smith is very uncertain. Do you know who Taylor Heinicke is? I don’t. The Washington Football Team made the playoffs. Hooray! Reality is about to strike in the form of an 8-point favorite from Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers’ defense allowed a little bit more than usual to the Falcons in Week 17 but is otherwise a stout front. The Buccaneers trump the aforementioned Rams as the best rushing defense in the NFL and won’t have to worry about much downfield with Alex Smith under center. Smith cannot push the ball down the field. The Buccaneers can pack it in.
Enter J.D. McKissic, the trustiest outlet in Washington. I don’t expect a big game from McKissic but I do expect catches. McKissic saw 110 targets this season — second for Washington behind budding star Terry McLaurin (134). That said, I want no part of Washington this weekend unless maybe McKissic on PPR daily fantasy sites. Tampa Bay should steamroll. Tom Brady might threaten to lead the playoffs in passing yards.
So, after all of that, what am I doing with McKissic? The over, of course. The yards are not relevant. Instead, I just want to profit off of all of the little dump-offs McKissic picks up down the stretch. You need to be price-sensitive here. The same prop is priced way worse across the industry. Grab this at BetMGM before bettors catch up.
[Bet Over 4.5 Receptions +115 at BetMGM]
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans
Lamar Jackson Over/Under 68.5 Rushing Yards
Surely, the best rushing prop of the weekend is found in this game. Derrick Henry is a lock to go over 120… I am just kidding.
Does Henry merit the massive lines that come with his robust rushing reputation? Sure. That said, these props are getting so lofty for Henry. Baltimore allowed 108.8 rushing yards per game. That said, the Titans’ defense is so, so very bad. Unlike last season when the Titans stunned the heavily-favored Ravens, the Tennessee defense has sprung enough leaks to allow for huge performances from opposing offenses.
Enter Lamar Jackson. Jackson is a sneaky play for playoff rushing leader considering if the Ravens are to make a deep run in the playoffs, Lamar will need to perform at a high level. Further, for Lamar to make a deep run, Henry’s run ends in one game. Outside of Henry and a questionable Alvin Kamara, most of the better rushers in the playoffs come into this weekend as underdogs. With a victory over the Titans, Jackson could make a run at the top rusher.
I think that path at least begins in this game. Jackson rushed for 143 yards in the loss to the Titans last season. The Ravens will look for revenge and Jackson will be turned loose in potentially the highest-scoring game of the week. This over is easy. Book it.
[Bet Over 68.5 Rushing Yards -112 at DraftKings]
Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints
David Montgomery Over/Under 62.5 Rushing Yards
At the time of this writing, the player props are a bit thin for this game given all of the question marks that surround, well… everything? The Saints’ backfield, Michael Thomas, the Bears’ receivers. Ummm, is anyone healthy? This is the playoffs! Get it together, guys.
In any event, the path for the Bears to upset the Saints is by running the football with their best weapon, David Montgomery. There is not much competition for snaps in the Bears’ backfield, so Montgomery should see a big enough workload regardless of the game script to clear this rushing total.
Since Mitch Trubisky retook the reins of the Bears’ offense, Montgomery has not gone below this rushing total once. Instead, Montgomery has resurrected a fledgling career with 508 rushing yards and 7 rushing touchdowns. The Bears are not left with many outs. To win, they need to run the football. Look for Montgomery to keep getting fed while the game is in reach. The Saints are one of the better defenses in the playoffs but I think Montgomery can get there on volume.
This is another one where price sensitivity is crucial. Montgomery’s props are already priced up on DraftKings. Take this over at BetMGM.
[Bet Over 62.5 Rushing Yards -105 at BetMGM]
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Diontae Johnson Over/Under 63.5 Receiving Yards
Finally, we reach the Wild Card Weekend Finale. The game everyone is waiting for on Sunday Night. The Browns versus the Steelers…
Yikes! To make things worse, the Browns have a bounty of problems and COVID is one… or two, or three… With so much uncertainty surrounding the Browns at the time of this writing, the Steelers line is moving steadily towards Pittsburgh and this game is looking more and more like a wash.
That said, in normal blowouts, teams want to pound the football and move on to next week. Here’s the thing… the Steelers, well they just cannot do that. The Steelers rank dead last in yards per rushing attempt and we are going to have to face facts. Ben Roethlisberger is going to throw the football throughout the Steelers’ postseason run.
Enter Dionte Johnson, Ben’s clear favorite target despite a mild case of the dropsies that stymied the Steelers’ hot start. Johnson saw 144 targets in 15 games and had a couple of shortened performances because of injuries. Johnson doesn’t just struggle with the dropsies — he also has a case of the ridiculously low yards per reception… sies. With that said, Johnson is open constantly and is one of my favorite dark horses for leading receiver in the postseason. I think he gets off to a good start in a matchup against the injury-riddled Browns. I will take the over at FanDuel.
[Bet Over 63.5 Receiving Yards -112 at FanDuel]
Good luck with your player props. Share your prop picks with Joe on Twitter @JoeCistaro.
2020 NFL Player Props Record: 30 – 20
Net Units on One-Unit Bets: +7.44
Image Credit: Imagn