DFS Alerts

SEA WR Tyler Lockett (hamstring) not on the injury report for Week 6.

SEA WR Tyler Lockett (hamstring) not on the injury report for Week 6.

ATL TE Kyle Pitts (hamstring) questionable for Week 6.

ATL TE Kyle Pitts (hamstring) questionable for Week 6.

ARI RBs James Conner (ribs) and Darrel Williams (knee) ruled out for Week 6.

ARI RBs James Conner (ribs) and Darrel Williams (knee) ruled out for Week 6.

LAR WR Cooper Kupp (foot) and TE Tyler Higbee (ankle) listed questionable for Week 6, but both are expected to play.

LAR WR Cooper Kupp (foot) and TE Tyler Higbee (ankle) listed questionable for Week 6, but both are expected to play.

LAR RB Cam Akers (personal) ruled out for Week 6.

LAR RB Cam Akers (personal) ruled out for Week 6.

NO QB Andy Dalton will start Week 6.

NO QB Andy Dalton will start Week 6.

NO WR Michael Thomas (toe) ruled out for Week 6.

NO WR Michael Thomas (toe) ruled out for Week 6.

NYG WRs Kadarius Toney (hamstring) and Kenny Golladay (knee) ruled out for Week 6. WR Wan'Dale Robinson (knee) is questionable.

NYG WRs Kadarius Toney (hamstring) and Kenny Golladay (knee) ruled out for Week 6. WR Wan’Dale Robinson (knee) is questionable.

TB WR Julio Jones (knee) listed doubtful for Week 6.

TB WR Julio Jones (knee) listed doubtful for Week 6.

PIT TE Pat Freiermuth (concussion) will not play in Week 6.

PIT TE Pat Freiermuth (concussion) will not play in Week 6.

Top Hitting Environment Contains a Lot of Projected Value

Not only do the Dodgers dominate hitter projections in terms of raw point totals, despite a 3.59 implied run total that still tops a six team board today, but the top three projected values on either site are also Dodgers. Batters from either side of the plate were between a .274 and .285 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year and Austin Barnes (103 wRC+, .182 ISO vs LHP this year) is a top two projected value on either site for less than $2.5K. Costing exactly $2.6K on either site, Chris Taylor (73 wRC+, .126 ISO) is the top projected DraftKings value, but also the sixth best projected FanDuel value. Trayce Thompson (78 wRC+, .186 ISO) rounds out the top three DraftKings values for $2.4K. Justin Turner (109 wRC+, .115 ISO) and Will Smith (154 wRC+, .217 ISO) also project as top 10 DK values between $3.5K and $4K. Both are also among the top three FanDuel values, just below Barnes, for $3.1K or less.

The Phillies are the other offense that comes up large in terms of projected value on FanDuel. We don’t know what to expect out of Spencer Strider today. Perhaps it’s just one time through the lineup, but batters from either side of the plate were below a .250 wOBA and .270 xwOBA against him this season. None the less, costing $3.3K or in a couple of cases much, much less, Brandon Marsh (105 wRC+, .159 ISO), Nick Castellanos (92 wRC+, .139 ISO), Rhys Hoskins (108 wRC+, .197 ISO) and J.T. Castellanos (129 wRC+, .207 ISO) all project as top 10 FanDuel values. Marsh, less than $3K on both sites, is the only Phillie to project as a top 10 DraftKings value.

DraftKings projections do like a trio of cheap (< $3K) Braves as top value tonight though. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .246 and .281 wOBA and xwOBA against Aaron Nola this year, but Eddie Rosario (64 wRC+, .122 ISO), Orlando Arcia (119 wRC+, .203 ISO) and Marcell Ozuna (108 wRC+, .248 ISO) are cheap in the top hitting environment on the board.

This Offense Still Dominates Projections Below a Four Run Team Total

Fairly surprising, even on a six team board, no offense even comes close to four implied runs on Friday with the Dodgers topping the board with a 3.59 run team total. It’s not a surprise to find four Dodger bats among the top six projected on either site tonight. Blake Snell is volatile enough arm that he’s probably worth rostering in GPP lineups, but also worth attacking with premium Dodger bats where you’re not using him. Batters from either side of the plate were between a .274 and .285 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year. Of course, we’re looking at the top half of the Dodger order here, which will consist of Mookie Betts (174 wRC+, .301 ISO vs RHP this year), Freddie Freeman (135 wRC+, .167 ISO, Trea Turner (146 wRC+, .244 ISO) and Will Smith (154 wRC+, .217 ISO).

Aaron Judge (217 wRC+, .384 ISO) is the top projected bat on the board against one of the top projected pitchers in Shane Bieber, whom RHBs had a .277 wOBA and .287 xwOBA against this year. With a 3.29 implied run line that sits in the middle of the board, no other Yankees project among the top 10 bats tonight, but Giancarlo Stanton (124 wRC+, .271 ISO) and Anthony Rizzo (125 wRC+, .235 ISO) project among the top 15.

The Philadelphia Phillies are the only offense besides the Dodgers projecting multiple top 10 bats tonight, despite a 3.25 run team total. Problematically, we really have no idea what to expect out of Spencer Strider tonight, except that he’s almost certain to run well short of a full workload, but LHBs had just a .244 wOBA and .267 xwOBA against him this year. Bryce Harper (148 wRC+, .253 ISO) and Kyle Schwarber (146 wRC+, .334 ISO) are just that good in the most hitter friendly environment on the board today.

The bottom half of the pitching board includes a competent, but frequently over-valued arm, a highly volatile one and one who’s faced just nine batters over the last month and a half. Nestor Cortes finished up his season with 13.1 shutout innings, striking out 15 of 45 batters. On the season, he struck out 26.5% (20.3 K-BB%) of batters with an 11.1 SwStr% and only allowed 5.3% Barrels/BBE, despite a 33.5 GB% because batters only made hard contact 34.7% of the time against him. That put his 2.44 ERA most in line with, but still well below a 2.70 xERA with contact neutral estimators around three and a half. A Yankee defense with 16 Runs Prevented and a .268 BABIP allowed helped and Harrison Bader will only make It better, but a .232 BABIP and 82.8 LOB% still merit some regression concerns. Jose Trevino was also the best defensive catcher in the game this year (20.5 CDA) by a pretty fair margin. Cortes did get in two starts against Cleveland this year (12.1 IP – 3 ER – 2 HR – 2 BB – 14 K – 42 BF), both prior to the break. The Guardians were measurably worse against LHP this year (84 wRC+, 20.7 K%, 6.9 HR/FB). While the cutter was a strong offering for Cortes too, the four-seamer was his best pitch (44%, -2.2 RV/100, 25.4 Whiff%, .205 wOBA, .239 xwOBA), while the Guardians were the fifth worst offense against fastballs in the second half (-0.5 wFB/C). He’s just below $10K on FanDuel (fourth most expensive), but third most expensive on DraftKings, but currently the second worst projected pitcher and value on the board (though that could change with a Spencer Strider adjustment).

Second cheapest on the board, Blake Snell allowed a run or less in 13 of his last 17 regular season starts and did so with a 35.1 K% and 26.6 K-BB%. An 8.4 BB% over that span wouldn’t stand out to most people, but it represented substantial improvement for Snell, who had become accustomed to double digit walk rates for most of his Padre tenure. He finished the season with a 32.0 K%, 9.5 BB% and estimators ranging from a 2.68 DRA to a 3.21 xFIP a bit below his 3.38 ERA. Then the post-season game and he was the only San Diego dark spot of the Wild Card series, walking six of 19 Mets, a number he hit only once this season (at Coors), while striking out five and failing to make it out of the fourth inning. Which Snell will we see against the Dodgers (113 wRC+, 22.9 K%, 9.0 BB% vs LHP)? All three of his starts this season fit into that 17 start window mentioned above, but with mixed results (14 IP – 6 ER – 1 HR – 10 BB – 23 BF – 63 BF). He currently projects as the fourth best arm on the board and third best value, but again, this is probably assuming a workload on the larger side for Strider. An adjustment there could make Snell the second best projected value on either site. Currently ownership expectations for Snell are very low, which would make this highly volatile arm more interesting in GPPs.

A .207 BABIP and 83.8 LOB% rightfully get a lot of the credit for Tony Gonsolin’s 2.14 ERA being around a run or more below estimators ranging from a 3.12 xERA to a 3.74 SIERA, which is a bit of a shame because it’s not like he pitched poorly at all. A 23.9 K%, 7.0 BB% and just 5.6% Barrels/BBE are certainly nothing to scoff at. However, he also missed the entire month of September, returning only over the last weekend to face nine batters (40 pitches) and now has had another 11 days off. How much could we possibly expect out of him? Gonsolin did do some of his best work against the Padres (12.2 IP – 1 ER – 1 HR – 1 BB – 14 K – 46 BF), who had just a 101 wRC+, 22.0 K% and 9.6 HR/FB vs RHP this year. He is the worst projected pitcher and value on the board with a very low workload expectation.

Lakers’ Dennis Schroder suffers finger injury and his regular season status is TBD.

Lakers’ Dennis Schroder suffers finger injury and his regular season status is TBD.

Top Projected Pitcher in Dangerous, But High Upside Spot

If anyone stands a decent chance of taking the NL Cy Young out of Sandy Alcantara’s hands, it’s probably Aaron Nola. He did not always excel at run prevention, but a lot of that can be blamed on the worst defense to make the post-season, which was also the second worst unit in baseball (-31 Runs Prevented). Nola recorded at least two seventh inning outs in 17 of his 32 starts this season, striking out 29.1% of the batters he faced, while walking just 3.6% with a 28.4 Z-O-Swing% and 31.6% hard hit rate. His 3.25 ERA was well above estimators ranging from a 2.58 FIP to a 2.80 SIERA. Ironically, he allowed at least four runs in three of his five starts against the Braves, but a total of just one in the other two. Nearly one-quarter (seven) of his 29 season walks were issued to them, along with five of his 19 home runs, though he also struck out 41 of 140 Braves and completed at least six innings in all three starts. A lot of strikeouts and home runs sounds like what the Braves have done to most right-handed pitching this year (108 wRC+, 25.1 K%, 16.0 HR/FB). Nola struck out six of 25 Cardinals with a single walk over 6.2 shutout innings in the Wild Card round. Nola is the most expensive pitcher on either site by $400. He is the top projected pitcher on the board and assuming the top projected value gets a pitch count adjustment, Nola would be the top projected value on either site.

You probably haven’t heard much about Shane Bieber’s velocity since April because it hasn’t been a problem. It’s even risen since early in the season, but remaining below previous years, he just reduced his fastball usage (it was his worst graded pitch via Statcast at 0.1 RV/100) and everything has worked out fine. Bieber finished the season allowing more than two runs in just two of his last 13 starts with at least seven outings in eight of those. He failed to produce six innings, only in his last start. Striking out exactly one-quarter of the batters he faced and walking just 4.6% with nearly half his contact on the ground (48.2%), an 89.9 mph EV didn’t hurt so much. There was a bit of a falter over the last month of the season, but a 13.0 SwStr% and .303 xwOBA suggest he pitched much better than results. His 2.88 ERA was a near perfect match for his FIP (2.87), but only more than one-third of a run below a 3.51 xERA. Two additional facets in his favor are that the Cleveland defense was fifth best in the league this year (14 Runs Prevented) and Austin Hedges was the fifth best defensive catcher (11.4 CDA, which is a counting stat). Bieber dominated the Rays, striking out eight of 26, allowing a single run and walk in his Wild Card start. The Yankees (114 wRC+, 22.4 K%, 9.9 BB% vs RHP, 119 wRC+, 16.8 HR/FB at home) are a different animal, though it’s not necessarily a park downgrade in terms of pure run environment. Bieber is the second most expensive pitcher on either site and assuming a major adjustment to Spencer Strider’s pitch count coming, would likely be the second best projected pitcher on the board, but a middle of the board (third or fourth) projected value.

Spencer Strider is great. He struck out an insane 38.3% of batters faced with a 79.1 Z-Contact% and allowed just 6.1% Barrels/BBE. All estimators were more than a quarter run below his 2.67 ERA, but he also hasn’t pitched since September 18th. What could we reasonably expect? Perhaps three innings? In three starts plus one relief appearance against the Phillies, Strider excelled (21.1 IP – 3 ER – 2 HR – 7 BB – 34 K – 79 BF), despite the fact that they pummeled sliders in the second half (0.32 wSL/C). Strider is third most expensive FanDuel pitcher ($10K), but only $6.5K on DraftKings, which almost makes him sort of interesting. Perhaps he’s been doing enough bullpen work to go four to five innings? We really don’t know yet. Projections which probably assuming nearly a full work load have him as the second best pitcher and top value on the board, but Strider is an enormous wild card today, while expectations probably need to be tempered.