DFS Alerts

BUF WR Isaiah McKenzie (concussion) listed questionable for Week 5.

BUF WR Isaiah McKenzie (concussion) listed questionable for Week 5.

PIT WR Diontae Johnson (hip) fully practiced Friday, off the injury report for Week 5.

PIT WR Diontae Johnson (hip) fully practiced Friday, off the injury report for Week 5.

TEN WR Treylon Burks (foot) ruled out for Week 5.

TEN WR Treylon Burks (foot) ruled out for Week 5.

WAS WR Jahan Dotson (hamstring) ruled out for Week 5. TE Logan Thomas (calf) listed as questionable.

WAS WR Jahan Dotson (hamstring) ruled out for Week 5. TE Logan Thomas (calf) listed as questionable.

TB TE Cameron Brate (concussion) is out for Week 5.

TB TE Cameron Brate (concussion) is out for Week 5.

ATL TE Kyle Pitts (hamstring) ruled out for Week 5.

ATL TE Kyle Pitts (hamstring) ruled out for Week 5.

BUF TE Dawson Knox (hamstring/foot) ruled out for Week 5.

BUF TE Dawson Knox (hamstring/foot) ruled out for Week 5.

CAR WR Laviska Shenault (hamstring) officially ruled out for Week 5.

CAR WR Laviska Shenault (hamstring) officially ruled out for Week 5.

NYG QB Daniel Jones (ankle) off the injury report. Will start Week 5.

NYG QB Daniel Jones (ankle) off the injury report. Will start Week 5.

NYG WR Wan'Dale Robinson (knee) ruled out for Week 5.

NYG WR Wan’Dale Robinson (knee) ruled out for Week 5.

This Cheap Bat Projects as the Top Value on Both Sites

FanDuel pitchers are all pretty expensive on Friday, while DraftKings is a bit more flexible, but you’ll probably want to throw in some value bats. The Phillies not only project three top 10 bats tonight, but three top 10 FanDuel values, though no Phillie hitter projects as a top bat and value tonight. Matt Vierling (110 wRC+, .131 ISO vs LHP this year) is the only top 10 projected Phillie value on both sites ($2.1K on both), though Nick Castellanos (99 wRC+, .082 ISO) and Alec Bohm (158 wRC+, .189 ISO) are top values for $2.7K or less against Jose Quintana (RHBs .292 wOBA, .312 xwOBA).

The top projected value at $2.6K on both sites is Carlos Santana (89 wRC+, .188 ISO) against Alek Manoah (LHBs. 302 wOBA, .326 xwOBA). Jarred Kelenic (69 wRC+, .211 ISO) projects as a multi-site top value for less than $2.5K. He has a 109 wRC+ since his latest recall. Adam Frazier (84 wRC+) is a top 10 DraftKings value, but costs $2.2K on both sites.

The Tampa Bay Rays are the only other offense with a pair of top 10 projected values on both sites. Batters from either side of the plate are between just a .259 and .297 wOBA and xwOBA against Shane Bieber this year, but Christian Bethancourt (99 wRC+, .181 ISO) and David Peralta (116 wRC+, .182 ISO) are top FD values for less than $2.5K, while Jose Siri (89 wRC+, .138 ISO) and Taylor Walls (66 wRC+, .127 ISO) are top projected DK values in the same price range.

A pair of St Louis Cardinals also show up as top 10 FanDuel values against Zack Wheeler (LHBs .271 wOBA, .290 xwOBA). Lars Noobar (120 wRC+, .230 ISO) and Corey Dickerson (110 wRC+, .141 ISO) cost less than $2.6K or less.

The Bottom Half of a Great Pitching Board

The fifth most expensive arm on either site, but still $10K on FanDuel, Zack Wheeler did miss a month near the end of the season, but came back to strike out 15 of his final 52 batters and work himself up to 77 pitches last time out. The discouraging part of that is that his swinging strike rate did not exceed 8.1% in any start since his return and averages at 5.6%. However, his velocity was intact with 63.9% of his contact on the ground and an 85.4 mph EV. Removing the eight starts around his IL stints, Wheeler completed seven innings in eight of 17 this year. Striking out a healthy 26.9% of batters (21.3 K-BB%), he’s the rare Phillies’ pitcher with all estimators above his 2.82 ERA, though they only extend to a 3.19 SIERA. That’s said because the Phillies are only post-season team with a below average defense. In fact, -31 Runs Prevented is second worst in the majors, though Realmuto remains a top catcher (11.3 CDA is seventh). The Cardinals have a 109 wRC+ and 19.9 K% vs RHP and also the top home/road wRC+ on the board (119), but St Louis is a significantly negative run environment, especially in the cooler months. The only pitches that graded extremely well for Wheeler this year were his fastballs, a sinker (17.7%, -2.5 RV/100, .262 wOBA, .249 xwOBA) and four-seam (41.8, -1 RV/100, 28.4 Whiff%). This could be a problem, trailed only the Dodgers in offense against fastballs (0.54 wFB/C). Wheeler, perhaps due to combination of workload and matchup, projects just second from the bottom today (though could move up when Manoah finally gets a projection) and also as the second worst value on either site, despite a large price discrepancy ($2.8K).

Third cheapest on either site, Shane McClanahan ended the season striking out just 12 of his last 81 batters (14.6% with a 9.6 SwStr%) after a two week IL stint. He was also hammered for a 5.21 ERA that was below his 5.85 FIP and .343 xwOBA. The good news (and really only good news) is that his velocity was up last time out and perhaps that’s the sign the Rays needed to see to have confidence in him in this spot. His last four starts were all against Houston and Toronto too. His season numbers are still electric enough to be considered the statistical Cy Young (which is different from the narrative one). McClanahan still has a 30.3 K% (24.4 K-BB%) with a 15.5 SwStr% and 79.5 Z-Contact%. Half of his contact has been on the ground (50.2%), allowing just 6.4% Barrels/BBE with just a 32.6% hard hit rate. Those marks give him the second highest strikeout rate and second lowest hard hit rate among today’s starters. He finished with a 2.54 ERA that below, but within half a run of all estimators. Not a single one was above three. He has the best SIERA, xFIP and DRA on the board. The Guardians also have far inferior numbers against LHP. They still don’t strike out a ton (20.7%), but have board lows wRC+ (84), BB (7.0%) and HR/FB (6.9%) rates against LHP. If McClanahan is healthy, he could dominate. If not, he still has a chance. He projects as today’s third best arm (though in virtual tie with Darvish), but is easily the top projected DraftKings value (third on FD), though projections don’t dink pitchers (or anyone) for potential injuries.

The least expensive pitcher by $1K on DraftKings, but just second least expensive on FanDuel, Jose Quintana may seem an odd Game One choice. His 20.2 K% and 10.6 SwStr% are worst on the board (although that second one is a perfectly league average number). He’s also allowed a single home run and just eight barrels (2.7%) over his 19 starts. It’s not sustainable stuff, but it sure is something and may be more sustainable in this park. Think of the Cardinals as a football team with interchangeable running backs in a great system. The Cardinals only want their pitchers to induce weak contact while the defense (19 Runs Prevented) takes care of the rest. Quantrill registered a 13.3 K-BB% (average) with an above average ground ball rate (46.4%) and just an 86.5 mph EV and 5.5% Barrels/BBE. He’s also bottom of the board in innings pitched per start this year and by a pretty big margin at just above five. The Phillies had a 115 wRC+ vs LHP with a 22.8 K% and 11.9 HR/FB. They had just a 100 wRC+ on the road. His best bet might be a lot of curveballs. It was one of two strong pitches for him (28.1%, -1.3 RV/100, 31.1 Whiff%, .258 wOBA, .282 xwOBA) and the only pitch he throws that the Phillies were below average against since the break (-0.37 wCB/C is bottom third of the league). The worst projected pitcher on the board is also the worst projected FanDuel value, but second best DraftKings one. An obvious SP2 consideration only, but a decent one.

Somehow, least expensively on FD, but fourth most expensive on DraftKings, Luis Castillo started 11 games for the Mariners (3.17 ERA/2.91 FIP/3.03 xFIP) and seven of them were Quality Starts. He actually allowed 15 (8.9%) of his 27 barrels (6.8%) with the Mariners, but his strikeout rate also increased (28.9%). Perhaps he realized he could get away with much more in Seattle than he did in Cincinnati. Only six of those barrels left the yard and just two in five home starts. Overall, he has a 2.99 ERA that was just slightly beneath, but within half a run of all estimators except for a 2.20 xERA. He does get a slight park downgrade here, how much may be determined by the roof status, while the Blue Jays had an equal 118 wRC+ at home and vs RHP this year, striking out only 20.3% of the time with a 13.0 HR/FB vs RHP. The Blue Jays generally run out an almost entirely right-handed lineup, while batters from that site had just a .262 wOBA and .261 xwOBA against him this year. Castillo’s best pitches were a four-seamer (32.9%, -2.2 RV/100, 33.9 Whiff%) and slider (21.1%, -1.4 RV/100, 36.8%), but the Blue Jays were above average against all four pitches he throws more than 20% of the time since the break. Castillo is a middling projections overall, but a top three projected value on either site currently.

They're All Pretty Great Pitchers on Friday

No single pitcher falls below $9K on Fanduel today, while DraftKings pitchers run a $5.3K to $9.8K range. Just keep in mind that when a win today and tomorrow ends each of these series, managers should and probably will more aggressively hook starters in the post-season. The most expensive pitcher on the slate ($10.8K FD) costs nearly $3K less on DK ($6.9), Alek Manoah enters this game as the pitcher with an ERA (2.24) furthest removed from his estimators (3.31 xERA to a 3.98 xFIP). He’s obviously benefitted from a 31.5% hard hit rate and 5.4% Barrels/BBE that were of his own making and a 22.9 K% (16.4 K-BB%) aren’t poor by any stretch, but a .246 BABIP, six unearned runs and 82.6 LOB% were far less under his control and rates he may not sustain. Manoah did finish up with eight straight Quality Starts though, four of them at least seven innings, allowing just five barrels (3.6%) over this span. The Toronto defense was fine (6 Runs Prevented), but Alejandro Kirk was actually one of the best catchers in the league by CDA (12.1 was third best), which is a counting stat. As far as Seattle goes, they’ve been good (106 wRC+, 22.8 K%, 12.6 HR/FB), but sort of just middle of the board today. There are no easy ones. The Seattle lineup is banged up a bit and has struggled in the second half. In fact, they were bottom half of the league against every pitch type Fangraphs tracks since the break, while Manoah graded much better than average on all four of his (four-seam, sinker, slider, changeup). There is not currently a projection showing for Manoah in LineupHQ, but we might suspect it being near the middle to bottom of the board and obviously a much better value on DraftKings.

Tied for second most expensive on FD ($10.6K) and most expensively on DK ($9.8K), while Max Scherzer tied a career high (2020) with 8.4% Barrels/BBE, the old man also tops today’s board in strikeout rate (30.6%) with the lowest walk rate (4.2%). The park also helped keep 17 of his 30 barrels in the yard. The high barrel rate was probably mostly a function of a 31.1 GB%, as his 33.9% hard hit rate was third best on the board. The 83.3% strand rate merits some regression. His 2.29 ERA was at least one-third of a run below estimators ranging from a 2.62 FIP to a 3.23 xFIP. The Mets have a good defense (8 Runs Prevented), but not that good. The Padres represent one of the more favorable matchups on the board today, especially considering the park. San Diego had a 101 wRC+ and 22.0 K% vs RHP. Scherzer’s slider (23.2%, -3.5 RV/100, 46.2 Whiff%) was a top 20 pitch in the league by accumulated Run Value (-18) and coincidentally, the only pitch the Padres really struggled with after the break (-0.19 wSL/C). Also, Tomas Nido was the second best defensive catcher in the league this year (16.9 CDA) and that’s a counting stat. Scherzer is the top projected pitcher on the board and top projected FanDuel value (just a middling DK value).

Tied with Scherzer on FD and $500 cheaper on DK, you probably haven’t heard much about Shane Bieber’s velocity since April because it hasn’t been a problem. It’s even risen since early in the season, but remaining below previous years, he just reduced his fastball usage (it was his worst graded pitch via Statcast at 0.1 RV/100) and everything has worked out fine. Bieber finished the season allowing more than two runs in just two of his last 13 starts with at least seven outings in eight of those. He failed to produce six innings, only in his last start. Striking out exactly one-quarter of the batters he faced and walking just 4.6% with nearly half his contact on the ground (48.2%), an 89.9 mph EV didn’t hurt so much. There was a bit of a falter over the last month of the season, but a 13.0 SwStr% and .303 xwOBA suggest he pitched much better than results. His 2.88 ERA was a near perfect match for his FIP (2.87), but only more than one-third of a run below a 3.51 xERA. Two additional facets in his favor are that the Cleveland defense was fifth best in the league this year (14 Runs Prevented) and Austin Hedges was the fifth best defensive catcher (11.4 CDA, which is a counting stat). The Rays finished with a 99 wRC+ and board high 24 K% vs RHP. Their 94 road wRC+ and 23.5 road K% are both board worsts as well. Additionally, Bieber will be taking his slider (28.8%, -1.3 RV/100, 39.4 Whiff%, .234 wOBA, .237 xwOBA) against the worst offense against sliders since the break (-1.35 wSL/C). He projects as the second best pitcher on the board currently (though that is subject to change), but as just a middling FanDuel value and the worst DraftKings one. Understand that value projections run a much narrower range today though.

Third most expensive on DK (fourth on FD), Yu Darvish failed to go at least six innings twice this year, once in his second start and again early in the season by a single out. The second rate strikeout rate (28.8%) was much higher than the first (23%). He did allow 9.0% Barrels/BBE, but with the increasing strikeout rate and 4.8 BB%, it wasn’t too big a problem. He’s also making a shift from one pitcher’s park to another tonight, where elevated contact should continue to not punish him, though his barrel rate is pretty easily highest on the board and he’s facing the most dangerous offense with a board high 119 wRC+ vs RHP and board low 19.6 K% against them. The San Diego defense is the best on the board too though (25 Runs Prevented was second best in the league), so he pretty much just has to keep it in the park. Every pitcher that Darvish threw this year (and there were several of them) grade better than average by Statcast, but the one he threw most often was the cutter (35.3%, -0.6 RV/100, 25.6 Whiff%), which, coincidentally, was the only pitch the Mets really struggled against in the second half (-0.41 wFC/C). Darvish projects as a middle of the board arm, but third from the bottom value on either site right now. We’ll cover the remaining four pitchers in the next post.

A Pair of Left on Left Bats Project Strongly Despite Tough Park

We don’t yet have team run totals on Thursday night, but let’s just assume no offense is going to be above four and a half implied runs with the Blue Jays and Mets possibly being the only ones reaching even four runs. However, despite potentially the most negative run environment on the board (depending upon weather), Bryce Harper (117 wRC+, .171 ISO vs LHP this year) is the top projected batter on the board even on a left on left matchup (LHBs .258 wOBA, .268 xwOBA against Jose Quintana this year). RHBs have been about average against Quintana (.293 wOBA, .312 xwOBA). Rhys Hoskins (162 wRC+, .272 ISO), Kyle Schwarber (94 wRC+, .193 ISO) and J.T. Realmuto (125 wRC+, .191 ISO) join Harper as top 10 projected bats by PlateIQ.

Only two other offenses project a pair of top 10 bats tonight, one pair on FanDuel and one pair on DraftKings. Drop down one spot further though and each team has two of the top 11 batters. The second best projected bat on the board is Julio Rodriguez (148 wRC+, .233 ISO), even though Alek Manoah has held RHBs to a .208 wOBA and .231 xwOBA. This probably has some to do with his spot in the lineup and the Blue Jays having one of the weaker bullpens on the board (using estimators over the last 30 days). Another RHB, Ty France (130 wRC+, .179 ISO) is the next best projected Mariner. The Mariners have taken to stacking RHBs atop the lineup recently, though LHBs have a .302 wOBA and .326 xwOBA against Manoah.

The third best projected bat on the board, despite another firmly negative run environment, is Francisco Lindor (128 wRC+, .176 ISO) against Yu Darvish, who has actually been better against LHBs this year (.239 wOBA, .277 xwOBA). Pete Alonso (145 wRC+, .253 ISO) also shows up towards the back end of the top 11 projections. RHBs had a .284 wOBA and .312 xwOBA against Darvish this season.

NYG WRs Kadarius Toney (hamstring) and Kenny Golladay (knee) ruled out for Week 5.

NYG WRs Kadarius Toney (hamstring) and Kenny Golladay (knee) ruled out for Week 5.