Spencer Turnbull has just a 7.7 K-BB% with a 91.4 mph EV. A 50.4 GB% has held his Barrels/BBE to 7.0%, but even then, just two of his 10 Barrels have left the yard, resulting in a 3.83 ERA and 3.59 FIP with all remaining estimators at least half a run higher. The Royals have just a 91 wRC+ and 16.5 K-BB% vs RHP, but with the wind blowing out to left tonight, conditions are favorable for right-handed power. The hottest hitter in baseball over the last 30 days is Salvador Perez (287 wRC+), who now has a 188 wRC+ and .306 ISO vs RHP this season. The cost has risen to $3.7K on FanDuel tonight, but Perez has homered three times in the past two games. While Turnbull doesn’t have much of a split, batters from either side of the plate are above a .310 wOBA and xwOBA against him in his career.
Dylan Cease has ceased to pitch competently in 2020. Over his last five starts, he’s walked 20 with just 17 strikeouts, yet still has just a 4.09 ERA over that span (.220 BABIP, 9.5 HR/FB). He’s allowed just two HRs and Barrels during this run with a 49.2 GB%, but 89.8 mph EV. The 78.9 LOB% doesn’t hurt the results either. His numbers are a mess everywhere except for the scoreboard right now and it’s going to be tough for the White Sox to trust him this post-season. The Cubs haven’t been hitting anything recently though (31 wRC+, 3.4 HR/FB last 30 days), so maybe the magic continues tonight. Just three batters in the projected lineup are above a 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days. One of those guys though, is Ian Happ, who also has a 140 wRC+ and .313 ISO vs RHP since 2019. He costs just $3K on FanDuel. Considering the fact that LHBs have a .387 wOBA (.367 xwOBA) against Cease since he arrived in the majors, Happ could be one of the top values on the board tonight.
Yu Darvish has allowed 10 runs (nine earned) over his last 19 innings, but has still struck out at least seven in eight straight starts, walking more than two just once this year. That gives him a board topping 27.6 K-BB% that even a 27.7 LD% can’t spoil. While a 2.23 FIP matches his 2.22 ERA, additional estimators range as high as a 3.37 DRA, which is still quite impressive. It may account quality of strength of opposing offenses, while also pitching in favorable Wrigley weather a few times. His first four starts were against the Brewers, Royals and Pirates, but he hasn’t faced a non-playoff contender since then. The White Sox have a dangerous offense (107 wRC+, 18.3 HR/FB vs RHP), but this spot is not without upside (White Sox 18.9 K-BB% vs RHP, 31.9 K% last seven days). Only four batters in the projected lineup are above a 99 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Another positive are Darvish’s splits. The White Sox are predominantly a right-handed lineup and batters from that side have just a .260 wOBA against Darvish since 2019. Darvish is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel at $11.2K. He’s $400 more than Carlos Carrasco, who looks great in a fantastic matchup against the Pirates, but Darvish has the higher strikeout rate by 3.6 points in a more dangerous matchup (which could lower his ownership rate), but one with just as much upside.
The 30 year-old Chris Mazza has thrown just 25 of his 41.1 major league innings this season with just an 8.8 K-BB% and 32.5 LD%, but his 85.7 mph EV is best on the board. He’s allowed just two Barrels and as many HRs with a .373 BABIP and 65.5 LOB%. Very strangely, his contact profile inclusive 6.02 xERA is well above his 5.40 ERA, which exceeds all other estimators by a quarter of a run or more. One assumption we can make is that quality left-handed pitching doesn’t often float around the minor leagues until they’re 30. He’ll attempt to hold an Atlanta offense with a 129 wRC+ and 18.6 HR/FB vs RHP in check tonight. He probably won’t be able to do so. In his short career, batters from either side of the plate have at least a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Mazza (RHBs .383/.413). The potential NL MVP costs $4.4K on FanDuel tonight, but may just be the top bat on the board. Freddie Freeman has a 171 wRC+ and .303 ISO vs RHP since 2019 and a 206 wRC+ over the last 30 days. He’s up to a 92.5 mph EV on the season with 14.1% Barrels/BBE.
Alex Cobb has been one of the hardest hit pitchers in the league with a 91.1 mph EV (10.7% Barrels/BBE) despite keeping 52.7% of his contact on the ground. Furthermore, while a full quarter of his fly balls have left the yard, that still only represents eight of his 15 Barrels. And we haven’t even mentioned the 17% strikeout rate. So while his 4.76 ERA is in line with his 4.66 SIERA and even well above a 4.24 DRA, a 5.10 FIP and 7.03 xERA (includes contact profile via Statcast) see things much differently. At 5.34 implied runs, the Red Sox are expected to be one of the top offenses on the main slate. Everyone in the lineup is above a 95 wRC+ with at least a .160 ISO vs RHP since 2019, while batters from either side of the plate are above a .360 wOBA and xwOBA in 57.2 innings against Cobb since last year. Only two batters in the projected Boston lineup are below a 120 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Rafael Devers (151 wRC+, .285 ISO vs RHP since last season) has caught fire with a 165 wRC+ over the last month and now has a lineup leading 92.5 mph EV for the season. He may be one of the top bats on the board tonight. For nearly $1K less on FanDuel, Alex Verdugo (123 wRC+, .203 ISO) may be one of the best values.
Corbin Burnes has struck out at least nine in four of his last five starts, allowing just one earned run over that span. On top of this, he’s generated just an 86.8 mph EV. Even so, he’s allowed eight Barrels, while just one of his pitches has left the park. While a 1.78 FIP agrees with his 1.77 ERA, all of his remaining estimators are quite a bit higher, but when a 3.07 SIERA is the worst they can say about you, you’re doing a lot of things right. Burns is your top pitcher tonight, even on a six game slate that includes Walker Buehler (potentially limited workload), Lance Lynn (low upside matchup against contact prone Astros) and Ian Anderson (weather concerns). Burnes faces a very marginal St Louis offense (93 wRC+, 23.9 K%, 10.5 HR/FB vs RHP) in a very negative run environment (Cardinals 12.7 HR/FB at home). Only one batter in the projected St Louis lineup is above a 118 wRC+ or .206 ISO vs RHP since 2019. Only three are above a 98 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Lynn likely holds a workload advantage over Burnes, having thrown more than 100 pitches every time out, but Burnes seems to have the edge in every other aspect.
Michael Fulmer has made 11 starts without exceeding three innings pitched in any of them, this by design apparently. In just 25.1 innings, he’s allowed seven HRs with a 6.6 K-BB% and 90.9 mph EV. A .378 BABIP and 21.9 HR/FB aren’t supposed to be sustainable and that may be true even here. Despite the exit velocity, he’s only allowed as many Barrels as HRs. His best estimator, is still an awful 5.47 SIERA that’s more than two and a half runs below his ERA though. Batters from the right side of the plate have hammered Fulmer for a wOBA and xwOBA above .500 since returning from injury this year! LHBs haven’t been bad either (.320 wOBA, .323 xwOBA). Fulmer is certainly still a pitcher daily fantasy players want to attack. Let’s look at the hottest bat in baseball over the last month. Salvador Perez has a 280 wRC+ over the last 30 days and nobody else is even above 250 (10 PA min.). Perez homered twice last night and now has 179 wRC+ with a .286 ISO vs RHP in a little over 100 PAs since last season. He’s barreled 11.4% of his contact with a 90.6 mph EV overall this year. With the consideration of potentially paying down for pitching tonight, a $3.6K catcher on FanDuel could be a top bat.
Ryan Castellani has walked 13 of his last 64 batters with just six strikeouts and five HRs. And yet, his 5.59 ERA is still more than half a run below all of his estimators! The combination of a 1.8 K-BB%, 38.3 GB% and 90.9 mph EV is not good. The good news is that he’s allowed 11 HRs, but only eight Barrels, so some of that hard contact will eventually stay in the park to drive his .202 BABIP up. To repeat, he has a 5.59 ERA with just a .202 BABIP. The Giants have a 109 wRC+ and 21.9 K% vs RHP with a respectable 14.3 HR/FB at home, as the park in San Francisco has played much less pitcher friendly this year. With batters from either side of the plate above a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against Castellani, the Giants are likely to own some of the best bats on the board tonight without a single batter in tonight’s projected lineup above $3K on FanDuel. Alex Dickerson (138 wRC+, .255 ISO vs RHP since 2019) has a 238 wRC+ over the last 30 days that’s second best in baseball among those with at least 10 PAs. He may just be the top bat on the FanDuel main slate tonight.
Kenta Maeda has been good enough to be a fringe Cy Young contender in most seasons. He’s put up a 27.2 K-BB%, while sustaining an excellent batted ball (49.7 GB%, 20.5 IFFB%) and elite contact profile (85.3 mph EV). His 2.53 ERA is a bit lower than all of his estimators (.206 BABIP, 83.3 LOB%), but a 3.05 FIP and 3.18 DRA are the only ones that exceed three. The Tigers have generally been a dream matchup for RHPs this year (80 wRC+, 20.9 K-BB%) and the lineup has only gotten weaker as the season’s gone on. Only one batter in the lineup for Detroit is above a 100 wRC+ with nobody above a .170 ISO against RHP since 2019. Maeda is the second most expensive pitcher on FanDuel at an even $10K with the only drawback being that he’s only exceeded 94 pitches once this season and has even been below 90 in six of 10 starts. However, he’s been so efficient that he’s completed at least six innings in seven of 10 starts.
Casey Mize has just a 9.9 K-BB% through six starts and has been held below 85 pitches in all six of his starts. Also not encouraging are the nine Barrels he’s allowed (12.2% of contact) despite only five of them leaving the yard, which still works out to a 19.2 HR/FB. His 6.08 xERA matches his actual 6.08 ERA. All other estimators are lower, but none are below five. He gets a tough assignment against the Twins (110 wRC+, 19.8 HR/FB vs RHP). Only one batter in the projected lineup is below a 100 wRC+ and only two are below a .200 ISO vs RHP since last season. LHBs have trounced Mize for a wOBA and xwOBA above .400 so far. Max Kepler has a 124 wRC+ and .282 ISO vs RHP against RHP since 2019 and costs less than $3K on FanDuel tonight. While RHBs have a .286 wOBA and 50 GB% against Mize, Statcast pulls them up to a .339 xwOBA. The Twins top the main FanDuel slate with a 5.64 implied run line tonight.
Dean Kramer has struck out 20 of the 65 batters he’s faced, but with just a 9.9 SwStr%, while walking nine as well. He has to be nearly perfect to generate a high rate of whiffs as he doesn’t throw particularly hard, nor have a wipe out secondary pitch. There’s probably some regression in his strikeout rate and with a 27.8 GB% and 90 mph EV, it can become dangerous territory. Not to say he can’t improve on these aspects, but it’s a bit of a fluke that he’s not allowed a HR yet with three Barrels. The Red Sox have a 107 wRC+ vs RHP and this lineup is where players may be able to find some hidden value tonight. While batters from either side of the plate are below a .250 against Kremer in a small sample, Statcast is showing a .379 xwOBA for LHBs. Alex Verdugo (121 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP since 2019) has a 137 wRC+ over the last 30 days and costs less than $3K on FanDuel tonight, where he could be one of the top values on the slate.
Kyle Hendricks is the most expensive pitcher on the main FanDuel slate ($10.6K) and while we normally don’t think of him in that manner due to lack of strikeouts, there may be enough evidence to support his price tag tonight. He struck out 10 of 27 Twins through eight shutout innings (three hits) last time out. The performance drove his strikeout rate all the way up to…21.3%. Hendricks continues to be effective as a contact manager (85.8 mph EV, 4.1% Barrels/BBE) with elite control (2.4 BB%) and has pitched into the eighth inning in three straight starts. He’s failed to complete six innings just twice this year. This matchup has Quality Start written all over it and he may be the one pitcher we can be most confident about doing that tonight. The real attraction here is the matchup though. The Pirates have a ridiculous 58 wRC+, 18.3 K-BB% and 10.9 HR/FB vs RHP this year. Only two batters in tonight’s projected lineup are above an 80 wRC+ over the last 30 days. This is an amazing spot for a good pitcher, who’s heavy workload should allow him to compile enough strikeouts here.
Jordan Lyles has just a 3.5 K-BB% and has allowed 13 Barrels (10 HRs) in just 49.2 innings. Still, his 5.39 xERA is his most optimistic estimator, even though a 7.25 DRA is the only one that comes anywhere near his 7.07 ERA. Regardless, the difference is between being really bad or being absolutely terrible. LHBs have smashed him for a .368 wOBA (.351 xwOBA) since last season. The Arizona lineup has been through a lot of turnover due to injuries and trades, but Kole Calhoun has been a constant and a pleasant surprise for the D’Backs this season. He has a 122 wRC+ and .267 ISO against RHP since last season and a 150 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Calhoun costs $3.4K on FanDuel and is barreling 12.2% of his contact this season. Nobody else in the projected Arizona lineup is above 10%, but they are still above five implied runs in this advantageous spot.
Kyle Freeland has been a productive contact manager (52.6 GB%, 86.8 mph EV), but with just a 16.3 K%, he’s still allowed seven HRs. An ERA below four (3.75) is mostly the product of an elevated strand rate (78.5%). All of his estimators are at least half a run higher, but all are below five at least. The Giants have been one of the best offenses in baseball against LHP this year (125 wRC+, 19.4 HR/FB). They have the ability to stack the entire lineup with RHBs and batters from that side of the plate are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Freeland since last season. In a smaller sample this year (203 PAs), they are at just a .308 wOBA though. However, considering the projected San Francisco lineup features six batters above a 125 wRC+ against LHP since last season (30 PA min.) and none cost more than $3.1K on FanDuel, there should be some value in this lineup with the largest portion of it potentially coming from the bat of Darin Ruf (145 wRC+, .321 ISO), who costs just $2.4K and has a 186 wRC+ overall for the last 30 days.
Framer Valdez has a K-BB exactly at 20% with a 59.9 GB%. The exit velocity is at 90.9 mph, but less of a problem with all of the strikeouts. He’s allowed 14 Barrels, but is also near the top of the league in innings pitched. Valdez has recorded seventh inning outs in six of his nine starts. A 4.13 xERA is his only estimator not at least a quarter of a run below his 3.82 ERA. He’s struck out at least seven in four of his last five starts. The Mariners have just a 74 wRC+, 27 K% and 11.7 HR/FB vs LHP this year. The lineup has had some turnover since the start of the season and they have accumulated a few interesting RH bats, but with LHBs below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Valdez in his career, he’s unlikely to be facing any RHBs who are above a 120 wRC+ vs LHP since last season. Valdez is the second most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, $100 behind Zach Davies, at exactly $10K, but with a much superior matchup. To recap, a heavy workload with high strikeout upside in a negative run environment: Framber Valdez is your top pitcher on a board without many strong arms on Tuesday night.