DFS Alerts
Extreme Value
Derrick Jones Jr. is my favorite value play as of this morning with Justise Winslow and Goran Dragic still out, Dion Waiters suspended and Tyler Herro playing with an illness. The Heat are willing to go small, leaning Nunn and Butler at the guard spots but DJJ playing huge minutes off the bench alongside them. There’s nothing great about DJJ or the matchup here, but the route to extended minutes and a large role on a banged up Heat team are too good to pass up.
Bombs Away
The Wizards are without Thomas Bryant, Moe Wagner and have Ian Mahimni slowly working his way back from an Achille’s injury. I’m expecting Rui Hachimura to play the backup center today, meaning Davis Bertans will see a lot of time at power forward. This matchup features two of the top paced teams, and I expect Bertans to be launching from deep all game long.
Circumstances Increase The Appeal
Both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard were on fire last night, with Leonard scoring 42 and George scoring 46. The duo combined for 55 shot attempts and 88 points against Minnesota. Given the team’s “maintenance” plan with Leonard at this stage, he will likely sit tonight. That should make George the star of the show. In the last game where Leonard rested, George played 36 minutes and put up a 36/9/5 line — and that came in a difficult matchup against the Pacers. We can expect his baseline production to be a little better in a more favorable matchup against a mediocre Bulls team. His usage rate sits at 35% and he scores nearly 60 fantasy points per 36 minutes sans Leonard, making George an elite option here.
Worthwhile Value
Okay, we need value. You can’t play Harden and George without value. Let’s find some value. For now, I’ll highlight Derrick Jones Jr. Both Justise Winslow and Goran Dragic have been ruled out again tonight, and that will open the door for extra minutes for Kendrick Nunn, Tyler Herro, and Jones. Nunn no longer qualifies as a value on any site, and Herro has been absolutely horrible in the last few games. That leaves us with Jones, who is the cheapest of the bunch in DFS and appears to be slowly earning the trust of his head coach. He is averaging 30 minutes per game over the last four contests, and his defensive presence is a nice boost with Winslow sidelined. As with the Houston players, his usage is not going to knock your socks off, but the secure playing time is noteworthy for a team that is currently operating with a short rotation. Jones has put up lines of 9/7/2 and 17/4/4 in the last two games, which gives him a baseline projection of around 25 fantasy points. That will get the job done at a sub-$4,000 price tag on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and he still sits at the bare minimum $10 tag on Yahoo. We don’t need miracles here, as we are mainly looking for a value option that can get us in the 20’s in order to fit both Harden and George into our lineups.
Saturday's Starting Point
It is a 1A and 1B situation with Harden and Paul George tonight, but I can’t in good faith put anyone other than Harden in the top spot. He has a ridiculous 48.5% usage rate sans Westbrook this season, and he is scoring over 68 fantasy points per 36 minutes in those situations. That is insane production, and it’s a nine point bump over his usual per 36 averages. There is enough value out there tonight to make it work, so Harden becomes the logical starting point — particularly in cash game builds.
Terance Mann will start for Patrick Beverley (concussion) on Friday
Lou Williams and JaMychal Green both won’t play in Friday’s matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves, while Rodney McGruder will have a minute restriction in his return from a seven-game absence due to a strained left hamstring. The Clippers are also without Patrick Beverley and Landry Shamet for tonight’s contest, but this will be the first time Beverley is unavailable when Kawhi Leonard is active, which sheds some uncertainty on who will replace Beverley in the starting lineup. Jerome Robinson handled the backup point guard responsibilities in the fourth quarter of Wednesday’s win, but Terance Mann averaged 29 minutes per game when Beverley and Leonard were sidelined earlier in the season, and he’ll draw the start this evening. Robinson and Mann have similar production rates thus far, but Robinson has the edge in usage with a 22.6% rate on the season.
As reported by: Jovan Buha via Twitter
Dennis Smith Jr. (illness) listed available Friday
As expected, Smith Jr. will be available to play in Friday’s matchup against the Sacramento Kings after missing one game due to an illness, while Wayne Ellington and Allonzo Trier were previously ruled out with their respective ailments. Prior to his absence, Smith logged fewer than 14 minutes in each of the previous two contests, and none of the Knicks’ trio of point guards has set themselves apart in interim head coach Mike Miller’s rotation when all are healthy and active. However, Elfrid Payton approached 30 minutes in Wednesday’s win with Smith unavailable, and he may be an interesting tournament target while there’s some uncertainty surrounding the guard rotation since he is averaging 0.98 DraftKings and 0.98 FanFuel points per minute on the season.
As reported by: NBA Official Injury Report Giannis Antetokounmpo (quad) will play Friday
As expected, Antetokounmpo will play in Friday’s matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies after missing one game due to a sore right quad tendon. There’s yet to be any reports of a potential minute restriction for Antetokounmpo, so he’ll presumably be a full-go, as it would seem unlikely the Bucks risk further injuring the reigning MVP by rushing him back into the lineup. In his absence, Ersan Ilyasova received the start at power forward, and he was phenomenal for fantasy purposes in 27 minutes of action in Wednesday’s win. Obviously Antetokounmpo is a viable daily fantasy option any time he suits up, but he’ll be a particularly intriguing tournament target at likely discounted ownership since he has a 37.3% usage rate and is averaging 1.86 DraftKings and 1.83 FanDuel points per minute on the season.
As reported by: Matt Velazquez via Twitter Derrick Favors (personal) will start Friday
As expected, Favors has officially been upgraded from questionable and will start in Friday’s matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers after missing well over two weeks due to a personal matter. Gentry previously left open the possibility of Favors starting to match up with Joel Embiid on the defensive end, and he did confirm that Favors will be limited to around 15-17 minutes in his first game back from an extended layoff. Even though Favors will be limited, his return to the rotation essentially turns the center minutes into a three-man committee, which eliminates him, Jahlil Okafor, and Jaxson Hayes from consideration for all daily fantasy formats on tonight’s nine-game main slate.
As reported by: the New Orleans Pelicans via Twitter Rajon Rondo (hamstring) and Avery Bradley (leg) available to play Friday
As expected, Rondo and Bradley will be available to play in Friday’s matchup against the Miami Heat, while Kyle Kuzma will miss a second straight game due to a sprained left ankle. Kuzma typically subs in for JaVale McGee at the later stages of the first quarter, moving Anthony Davis over to the center spot, so Dwight Howard could be a low key beneficiary of increased playing time with Davis theoretically needing to spend more time at the power forward position in head coach Frank Vogel’s rotation. However, this isn’t how head coach Vogel opted to deploy his rotation in Wednesday’s win, and instead, rolled with Jared Dudley in Kuzma’s vacated role, as the elder statesman logged 21 minutes before being ejected midway through the fourth quarter.
As reported by: Mike Trudell via Twitter Other tagged players: Avery Bradley Derrick Favors (personal) plans to play Friday
Head coach Alvin Gentry confirmed with reporters that Favors plans to play in Friday’s matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers after missing well over two weeks due to a personal matter. Gentry left open the possibility of Favors starting to match up with Joel Embiid on the defensive end, but he did confirm that Favors will be limited to around 15-17 minutes in his first game back from an extended layoff. Even though Favors will be limited, his return to the rotation essentially turns the center minutes into a three-man committee, which eliminates him, Jahlil Okafor, and Jaxson Hayes from consideration for all daily fantasy formats on tonight’s nine-game main slate.
As reported by: Andrew Lopez via Twitter Austin Rivers (illness) listed available Friday
As expected, Rivers has been upgraded from probable and will be available to play in Friday’s matchup against the Orlando Magic after missing two games due to illness, while Tyson Chandler was previously ruled out with an illness. However, Chandler has played fewer than 10 minutes in each of the previous six games, so his absence will have minimal impact on the remaining members of the Houston frontcourt rotation. In Rivers’ absence, Chris Clemons had assumed an insignificant role in the second unit, so the return of Rivers will likely more negatively affect the minute floors of Ben McLemore and possibly Danuel House Jr, possibly eliminating their viability on tonight’s nine-game main slate.
As reported by: NBA Official Injury Report Giannis Antetokounmpo (quad) now listed probable Friday
Antetokounmpo has been upgraded to probable on the Bucks’ injury report for Friday’s matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies after missing one game due to a sore right quad tendon. There’s yet to be any reports of a potential minute restriction for Antetokounmpo, so he’ll presumably be a full-go if he plays, as it would seem unlikely the Bucks risk further injuring the reigning MVP by rushing him back into the lineup. In his absence, Ersan Ilyasova received the start at power forward, and he was phenomenal for fantasy purposes in 27 minutes of action in Wednesday’s win. Obviously Antetokounmpo is a viable daily fantasy option any time he suits up, but he’ll be a particularly intriguing tournament target at likely discounted ownership since he has a 37.3% usage rate and is averaging 1.86 DraftKings and 1.83 FanDuel points per minute on the season.
As reported by: NBA Official Injury Report Tyler Herro (illness) will play Friday
Head coach Erik Spoelstra confirmed with reporters that Herro will play in Friday’s matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers despite previously being listed as questionable due to an illness. There haven’t been any reports of a potential minute restriction for Herro, so he should be good to resume his high volume sixth-man role off the bench with Justise Winslow and Goran Dragic still sidelined with their respective ailments.
As reported by: Ira Winderman via Twitter Markelle Fultz (illness) available to play Friday; Nikola Vucevic (ankle) remains out
Fultz has officially been upgraded from questionable and will be available to play in Friday’s matchup against the Houston Rockets after missing one game due to an illness, while Vucevic remains sidelined, as expected, with a sprained right ankle that’s already forced him to miss three weeks. In his absence, D.J. Augustin received the starting nod at point guard, but he was dismal from a fantasy perspective in just 27 minutes of action, while Michael Carter-Williams shifted over to the backup point guard role and managed to see 21 minutes himself. Fultz has been a great fantasy asset when he’s allocated a traditional starting minute workload, and he has a 23.8% usage rate, 31.9% assist rate, and is averaging 1.01 DraftKings and 1.00 FanDuel points per minute on the season.
As reported by: Josh Robbins via Twitter Other tagged players: Nikola Vucevic