DFS Alerts
Rudy Gay (heel) will play Monday
Gay confirmed with reporters after shootaround that he will play in Monday’s matchup against the Sacramento Kings after missing the last three games with a sore right heel. Meanwhile, Jakob Poeltl is still listed probable with a sprained right ankle, and Pau Gasol remains sidelined at least three more games because of a sore right foot. There’s been no word if Gay will be subject to a minute restriction in his return, but head coach Gregg Popovich will have to decide who’s the odd man out between Bryn Forbes and Derrick White in the starting lineup. However, considering White logged 29 minutes in the Spurs previous game and was deemed the Spurs starting point guard by Popovich following the injury to Dejounte Murray, he seems to be the likeliest candidate to man the point alongside DeMar DeRozan in the backcourt this evening and likely moving forward.
As reported by: Tom Orsborn via Twitter
Increased Minutes Tonight
With Wesley Matthews ruled out tonight, we have some appealing options on Dallas tonight. I really like this spot for both Harrison Barnes and J.J. Barea. Matthews is averaging 33.4 minutes per game this season, and with Barnes averaging 30.4, I could see him playing three to five more minutes, and he should see an increase in shots too. Barea is only playing 18.3 minutes per game this season and could see 22-28 minutes tonight — he has a 27.5% usage rate and he’s averaging 1.14 fantasy points per minute this season. If we see him play five to seven more minutes tonight, Barea is going to crush value at this price tag. Not to mention, it’s a dream matchup with the Bulls.
Pay Attention To This Spot
Avery Bradley is still questionable to play tonight, but if he misses his fourth straight game due to an ankle sprain, Gilgeous-Alexander would become a top value play for me. He’s played 35 and 40 minutes in the last two games, and Doc Rivers wants to continue to start him. Not knowing the situation if Bradley plays, I’m much more inclined to play SGA if Bradley sits. This is a great pace up spot against the Warriors.
Pivot Off The Chalk
Ryan Arcidiacono started for the Bulls the last two games, and he’s played 33 and 30 minutes in those two games. We have him projected for less than 7% ownership right now, so he sets up as a nice pivot off the chalky value plays. Dallas ranks 25th in DRPM against point guards and in the bottom ten against guards in defensive efficiency this season. Arcidiacono is expected to start again, and I like his chances for a big game tonight.
Take Advantage On These Sites
We have a ton of value options tonight, but Derrick White is way too cheap on DraftKings and FantasyDraft. After playing 16 minutes in his season debut against Miami, he played 30 minutes against Houston. Not only did he start in that Houston game, he was also on the court to finish the game with the other starters. The average lead in that game was 3.66, which gives us a nice sample of what this rotation could look like in a close game. I think DeRozan will lose some of his assist upside with Derrick White back from injury.
Draymond Green (toe) and Shaun Livingston (foot) will play Monday
Green has officially been upgraded from questionable and will play in Monday’s matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers after missing two consecutive games due to a sprained right toe, while Shaun Livingston has also been cleared to return from a seven-game absence stemming from a sore right foot. Green’s return will force Jonas Jerebko and Jordan Bell, who alternated starts at power forward, to resume their normal reserve roles. The Warriors will still be without Stephen Curry for tonight’s contest, which should allow Quinn Cook to start at point guard once again following a fantastic fantasy performance in 29 minutes in Saturday’s win, though his minute floor won’t be quite as stable with Livingston reentering the fold in the backcourt rotation. There isn’t a huge sample size with Curry off the court this season, but in that time, both Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant own usage rates north of 38.0% and also see a minimum of a +0.25 boost in per minute production. While these rates probably aren’t sustainable over the long-term, they still make the duo elite options on tonight’s slate.
As reported by: Mark Medina via Twitter Other tagged players: Shaun Livingston Kosta Koufos (calf) out Monday
Koufos has officially been ruled out of Monday’s matchup against the San Antonio Spurs due to a sore right calf. Koufos has been serving has one of the backup centers behind Willie Cauley-Stein but has averaged just 13.9 minutes in seven games this season, making his absence in the rotation less impactful. Even before news of Koufos’ absence, his spot in the rotation was in jeopardy, as head coach Dave Joerger reiterated that he would like to get Marvin Bagley more playing time at center moving forward. The matchup with San Antonio may prove difficult for Bagley to see a substantial increase in minutes with the Spurs utilizing Dante Cunnigham or Davis Bertans at the four in most lineup combinations, but if Bagley is able to approach minutes in the upper-20s, he could make for an interesting tournament target given his 23.4% usage rate and average of 1.09 DraftKings and 1.14 FanDuel points per minute on the year.
As reported by: Jason Anderson via Twitter Stable or Not
It didn’t take long for Derrick White to get up to speed, logging 30 minutes of action in his second game back from a heel injury. The Spurs have been looking for a more stable contributor at the point guard position and White seems poised to take over that role as he scored 14 points and dished out 8 assists against the Rockets. I’m not sold that White’s minutes are completely stable but if you think he approaches 30 minutes of court time again on Monday night he rates out as a positive value in a good matchup against Sacramento.
Condensed Rotation vs Poor Defense
Things you want to do in NBA DFS: take players against the Chicago Bulls. Harrison Barnes is coming off a disappointing 17 minute performance against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday night where foul trouble derailed what had otherwise been a consistent streak of playing time in the mid-30’s. Barnes should rebound and get plenty of run on Monday night with Wes Matthews already declared out, opening up even more minutes in the Mavs rotation. Chicago ranks sixth worst in the league allowing 112.7 points per 100 possessions and investing in a condensed Dallas rotation against a poor defense is a smart GPP strategy on Monday night.
Sneaky Fast
Perhaps somewhat sneakily, PHI @ MIA represents the second fastest paced matchup of the slate. The combination of fast pace, middle-of-the-road Miami defense, a shortened 76ers rotation, and Embiid battling Whiteside has me eyeing up Simmons as a top GPP option on the slate.
Wesley Matthews (hamstring) officially out Monday
Matthews to did not travel with the team to Chicago and has officially been ruled out for Monday’s matchup against the Bulls due to a strained left hamstring, while Luka Doncic remains questionable with a thigh contusion, but he’s managed to play through various ailments over the last couple of weeks. In Matthews’ absence, either Dorian Finney-Smith or Devin Harris would likely draw the start alongside Dennis Smith Jr. in the backcourt, though Finney-Smith stands to benefit from an increase in playing time regardless of starting lineup. However, Finney-Smith is a volatile daily fantasy option given a minuscule 12.0% usage rate, even if he manages to step into starter’s minutes. Harrison Barnes is poised to be a substantial beneficiary with Matthews unavailable, as he owns a 29.1% usage rate (+3.6%) and has averaged 0.99 DraftKings and 0.93 FanDuel points with him off the court this season, and he thankfully remains cheap across the industry following a string of recent disappointing performances.
As reported by: Eddie Sefko via Twitter Jeff Teague (knee) and Andrew Wiggins (quad) are game-time decisions Monday
Teague was originally ruled out, but he participated in shootaround this morning and will be a game-time decision for Monday’s matchup against the Brooklyn Nets due to a bruised left knee that’s kept him sidelined for six consecutive games, while Wiggins remains questionable with a quad contusion and will also be a game-time decision. The Timberwolves still won’t have the newly-acquired Robert Covington or Dario Saric at their disposal, so Josh Okogie will likely start at shooting guard in the absence of Jimmy Butler, while Wiggins would man the three-spot if he’s able to suit up. The viability of Derrick Rose on tonight’s slate depends largely on the availability of Teague, but Karl-Anthony Towns is poised to be a substantial beneficiary of Butler’s departure, as he owns a 30.3% usage rate (+4.3%) and is averaging 1.55 DraftKings and 1.56 FanDuel points per minute with him off the floor. This vaults Towns into the upper echelon of elite options, especially on DraftKings, where he is grossly underpriced at only $8.9K for his expected production output.
As reported by: Dane Moore via Twitter Other tagged players: Andrew Wiggins Aaron Gordon (ankle) questionable Monday; Jonathan Isaac (ankle) remains out
Gordon has officially been listed as questionable for Monday’s matchup against the Washington Wizards due to a sprained left ankle that forced him to miss Sunday’s win, while Isaac will miss his sixth consecutive game with a sprained left ankle. His absence will enable Wesley Iwundu to remain in the starting lineup at small forward, though his viability as a punt option in tournament relies solely upon the availability of Gordon, as he’s typically been limited to minutes in the mid-teens with him active. Conversely, Terrence Ross has been the main beneficiary with Isaac sidelined, playing 27.8 minutes over the last five games, and he owns a 25.2% usage rate while averaging 0.97 fantasy points per minute with him off the court as well.
As reported by: Josh Robbins via Twitter Other tagged players: Jonathan Isaac Nikola Mirotic (ankle) upgraded to probable Monday; Elfrid Payton (ankle) not expected to play
Mirotic has been upgraded from questionable to probable for Monday’s matchup against Toronto Raptors after missing one game due to a sprained right ankle, while Payton remains questionable, but head coach Alvin Gentry confirmed with reporters that he’s leaning towards holding him out once again. The likely absence of Payton should allow Wesley Johnson to continue starting at small forward and has averaged 25 minutes over the Pelicans last two games. The availability of Mirotic will ultimately depend upon how he feels following pregame warmups, but he’ll presumably displace Julius Randle from the starting lineup at power forward this evening. Jrue Holiday continues to benefit with Payton sidelined, as he owns a 27.7% usage rate (+2.6%) and is averaging 1.22 DraftKings and 1.21 FanDuel points per minute with him off the court this season.
As reported by: Daniel Sallerson via Twitter Other tagged players: Elfrid Payton Mike Muscala (nose) will play Monday; Wilson Chandler starts ahead of Landry Shamet
Muscala has officially been upgraded from probable and will play in Monday’s matchup against the Miami Heat after missing three consecutive games with a fractured nose, while Chandler returns from a one-game absence due to rest purposes and will start at the power forward spot ahead of Landry Shamet this evening. There’s been no confirmation if Chandler will have his 15-minute restriction increased, but given head coach Brett Brown’s decision to start him, that appears to be a fair assumption. The Sixers won’t be as shorthanded as they were in Saturday’s overtime loss, as they have recalled Shake Milton and Demetrius Jackson from the G-League to provide some depth until Jimmy Butler is available to make his Sixers debut on Wednesday night.
As reported by: Serena Winters via Twitter Other tagged players: Wilson Chandler, Landry Shamet