DFS Alerts
Kris Dunn (patella tendinitis) questionable for Sunday
Dunn did not practice on Saturday and is officially been listed as questionable on the Chicago Bulls’ injury report for tomorrow’s game against the Washington Wizards due to left patella tendinitis that forced him to be a late scratch from Friday’s loss and is on track to be a game-time decision. Jerian Grant stepped into the starting lineup at point guard in his place and greatly exceeded salary-based expectations in 33 minutes, so he’ll likely start for the second time in as many games if Dunn is eventually ruled out. The Bulls don’t really have a third-string point guard since they waived Kay Felder, so Denzel Valentine and Justin Holiday will serve as the primary ball-handlers with the second unit when Grant is off the floor, boosting their projected fantasy value on Sunday’s slate should Dunn be unavailable.
As reported by: K.C. Johnson via Twitter
Play The King
LeBron James is the highest priced player on this slate and the matchup against the Utah Jazz isn’t ideal as they are 26th in pace, but when I scan the list of players in the upper price range, he’s the guy I want to pay up for. Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins played 42 and 44 minutes, respectively, on Friday night and have a tough matchup against Kristaps Porzingis and Enes Kanter. The Knicks allow the second fewest rebounds per game to opponents. Kevin Durant will be getting Stephen Curry back and he sees a usage drop when Curry is on the court. Andre Drummond has to take on a stingy Spurs team, who held him to an average game earlier this season. Small forward is somewhat thin with a huge dropoff after LeBron and Durant, so I want shares of LeBron.
Expanded Role For This Forward Tonight
With Joel Embiid confirmed out resting, CourtIQ shows that Dario Saric sees a 3.5% usage bump and roughly a fantasy point per minute when Embiid is off the court. Robert Covington is also questionable, which may force Saric into playing even heavier minutes than normal to help contain the twin towers of Mason Plumlee and Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets have been fairly good at defending power forwards, but the minutes are extremely secure with Saric. In Saric’s first 10 games of the season, he only cracked 30+ minutes twice. Over his last 10 games, he’s cracked 30+ minutes in all but one of them. He’s a core play for me tonight.
Nene (rest) ruled out Friday
Nene is a late addition to the Houston Rockets’ injury report and has been ruled out for tonight’s game against the Washington Wizards due to rest purposes on the second leg of a back-to-back after playing 19 minutes in his start against the Boston Celtics on Thursday night. Meanwhile, Chris Paul will make his return from a three-game absence due to with a strained left adductor. His presence in the starting lineup will send Eric Gordon back to the bench to resume a reserve role, but Paul will be limited to around 25 minutes of action in his first game back, leaving the door opened for Gordon to be targeted at reduced ownership in tournaments. The Rockets are also still without key rotational pieces in Clint Capela and Luc Mbah a Moute, meaning they are relatively shorthanded in the frontcourt and P.J. Tucker will draw the start in Nene’s place alongside Ryan Anderson and Trevor Ariza, allowing Tarik Black to remain in the backup center role. Even if he wasn’t rested, Nene’s minutes were likely to be capped on the second leg of a back-to-back set anyway, and the likelihood of this matchup going small for extended stretches now substantially increases. With Capela and Nene off the court this season, James Harden owns a +5.9% usage rate differential while averaging a lofty 1.64 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings and 1.54 on FanDuel, though expectations should be tempered with Paul now available.
As reported by: Craig Ackerman via Twitter A Tournament-Only Shooting Guard
With Chris Paul expected back on Friday and planning to play around 25 minutes, that’s a huge downgrade for Eric Gordon. Gordon had been starting for the injured Paul and thrived in the role these last three games, but it’s likely he heads back to the bench against the Washington Wizards. Per CourtIQ, Gordon sees the biggest usage bump down with Paul back. Gordon can certainly still light up the box score off the bench, but he now profiles more as a tournament-only play with Paul set to return.
Chris Paul (adductor strain) will play Friday
Paul has been cleared to play and will suit up for tonight’s game against the Washington Wizards, according to head coach Mike D’Antoni, after previously being listed as questionable on the Houston Rockets’ injury report with a strained left adductor that had forced him to miss three consecutive games. His presence in the starting lineup will send Eric Gordon back to the bench to resume a reserve role, but Paul will be limited to around 25 minutes of action in his first game back, leaving the door opened for Gordon to be targeted at reduced ownership in tournaments. The Rockets are also still without key rotational pieces in Clint Capela and Luc Mbah a Moute, meaning they are relatively shorthanded in the frontcourt and P.J. Tucker will draw the start in Nene’s place alongside Ryan Anderson and Trevor Ariza in the frontcourt, allowing Tarik Black to remain in the backup center role. Even if he wasn’t rested, Nene’s minutes were likely to be capped on the second leg of a back-to-back anyway, which limited his appeal in daily fantasy formats, and the likelihood of this matchup going small for extended stretches now substantially increases. With Capela and Nene off the court this season, James Harden owns a +5.9% usage rate differential while averaging a lofty 1.64 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings and 1.54 on FanDuel, though expectations should be tempered with Paul now available.
As reported by: Craig Ackerman via Twitter Usage Bump For This Shooting Guard
With Serge Ibaka suspended for Friday’s game due to violating team rules, more of the offensive burden will fall on Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. Per CourtIQ, DeRozan sees a +4.9% usage bump with Ibaka off the court. Additionally, the Atlanta Hawks have been awful against shooting guards this season. DeRozan is going to get overlooked on a slate with several high-priced studs, making him a fine tournament play.
Serge Ibaka suspended one game for team rules violation, ruled out Friday
Ibaka has been suspended for one game by the Toronto Raptors for violating team rules and will serve his suspension in tonight’s game against the Atlanta Hawks, effectively ruling him out for Friday’s contest. The last time Ibaka was sidelined, C.J. Miles ended up drawing the start in his place as head coach Dwane Casey opted to roll with a small-ball starting five, but it’s typically been Pascal Siakam that’s started at power forward and has averaged just under 27 minutes per game in those instances. The announced starting lineup will certainly play a big role in which Raptors value players are the best to target, but one thing is for certain, both DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry will receive a bump to their projected fantasy values, as each own at least a +4.0% usage rate differential with Ibaka off the court this season, while DeRozan leads the way with a 36.3% usage rate and averages 1.32 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings and 1.29 on FanDuel in this scenario.
As reported by: Adrian Wojnarowski via Twitter Top Stud of the Night?
With Paul George out for the Thunder this evening, Russell Westbrook enters the conversation as one of the best players to spend up on. More usage will flow through Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony (who I also like tonight). Westbrook has been on top of his game over the last month, and that should continue tonight in an interesting matchup against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks. If you can fit him into your lineups, I actually like him a bit better than Harden tonight.
Elite GPP Option
The Wizards draw a fine pace up matchup here against a Rockets squad that ranks third in the league in tempo, and Chris Paul is questionable. There is nobody capable of checking Wall if Paul is on the sidelines, so make sure to check the news. Everything adds up to make Wall a fantastic GPP option tonight, and other DFS players might still be afraid to pull the trigger. This is the time to buy.
The Boring Play
Nobody likes to play Harrison Barnes for some reason. He consistently puts up solid numbers as the leader of this Dallas team, and his minutes are always very secure. This should be a relatively high scoring game against a Pelicans team that doesn’t always bring their “A” game defensively. Dallas won’t be able to do anything on the interior against Davis and Cousins, and the heavy lifting will fall on Barnes’ shoulders. He is a fine play in both cash games and tournaments today.
Back and Ready to Roll
Booker returned from a lengthy absence the other night and immediately made his presence felt for the Suns, scoring 32 points and logging a 40% usage rate in a difficult matchup against the Grizzlies. Booker also played a healthy 33 minutes in that game, which is quite the surprise for any player coming off a three week layoff. It should be all systems go for Booker moving forward, and this is a favorable matchup against the Kings. Although Sacramento does not play at a super fast pace, they rank in the bottom five in the league in defensive efficiency. Booker should be ready to resume his role as the team leader for the Suns, and he is a great tournament option as he is sure to be relatively low owned this evening.
Absolute Usage Monster for Friday Night
When I ran the CourtIQ with Paul George off the floor, I did a double take when I saw Russell Westbrook’s usage. He already has the highest usage of any player in basketball and it jumps up 10% when George is off the floor. I was already high on Westbrook before the news and now have him listed as an elite play in all formats. Carmelo Anthony has scored at least 26 fantasy points in five straight games, his price is down across the industry, and he sees a massive boost with George off the floor. On the season, Anthony sees a 6% usage boost and a 0.17 FP/min boost without George on the floor. I will be pairing Westbrook and Anthony together in a lot of lineups tonight.
Playing Starter-Like Minutes in a Great Matchup
With Dion Waiters, James Johnson, and Justise Winslow all ruled out for tonight, Ellington should continue to play 30 minutes for the Heat. He draws a great matchup against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, and they get a nice bump in pace. At his affordable prices across the industry, I’ll be targeting the sharpshooter heavily here on Friday night.
Joel Embiid (rest) ruled out for Saturday, expected to play Sunday
Embiid has been added to the Philadelphia 76ers’ injury report for tomorrow’s game against the Denver Nuggets and has been ruled out for rest as part of his back-to-back load management plan, meaning he is expected to suit up for the matchup with the Phoenix Suns on Sunday night. Meanwhile, there has yet to be an official update on the status of Robert Covington, who exited Thursday’s loss early with an injury to his left middle finger, but X-rays were negative. Amir Johnson and Richaun Holmes have absorbed a majority of the playing time at center in the prior games Embiid has missed this season, though Holmes has flashed the more consistent ceiling on these occasions, making him the preferred target for daily fantasy formats. With Embiid off the court this season, it’s been Dario Saric, Ben Simmons, and Robert Covington that have benefited the most from a usage standpoint, each averaging at least +3.1% usage rate differential, but Saric has actually capitalized on this extra usage the most thus far and has averaged 1.10 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings and 1.04 on FanDuel in this scenario.
As reported by: Jessica Camerato via Twitter