DFS Alerts
I've Quietly Moved Into The Starting Lineup
This is a ton of value on the slate tonight, and there will be even more value if some of the Magic guys end up sitting out. Harrison has quietly moved into the starting lineup, and draws a great matchup against the Suns tonight. Memphis receives the biggest bump in pace, and they’re implied team total is 6.4 points higher than their season average. Harrison has a 21.2% usage and he’s averaging .87 fantasy points per minute when he plays along Gasol without Conley and Green. If he plays well, he should play 25+ minutes in this game, and I think he’s a very interesting GPP pivot off the chalk value plays.
By the Numbers: A Stable Value Play
The Miami Heat will once again run a thin-ish rotation with James Johnson, Dion Waiters, and Justise Winslow missing from the lineup. Rotogrinders projections have factored in a 34 minute projection for Wayne Ellington, which includes a USG rate of roughly 17.5 and Asst%/Reb% of roughly 6 each. That’s enough to get him to a relatively conservative 24-25 fantasy points depending on site. On Draftkings, Ellington checks in mid-day with a strong +2.3 RGValue as a result. At this salary, he’s reached 5X value over 33% of the time and his role hasn’t been anywhere close to this stable for the vast majority of the season. His opponent today is the Orlando Magic, a team that has allowed the 11th most 3PM against in the past 4 weeks. Ellington is a 3 point specialist, with a massive career high 3Par (3 point attempt rate) of .863. The Magic are already bad overall defensively, allowing the second most DK points to their opponents over the past 4 weeks. Tonight, they’ll be very depleted with the loss of Nikola Vucevic and extended minutes in play for defenders like Mario Hezonja, Elfrid Payton, Mareese Speights, and other infrequent contributors to the Magic rotation. The bottom line is that this all adds up to Wayne Ellington being an extremely viable source of salary relief, with just teeny tiny glimmer of upside for 30ish Draftkings points. We’ll gladly take that to help pay up for our core options tonight.
Mason Plumlee (finger) will play Tuesday; Emmanuel Mudiay (ankle) probable
Plumlee has been cleared to play and will suit up for tonight’s game against the Utah Jazz, according to head coach Mike Malone, after previously being listed as questionable on the Denver Nuggets’ injury report with a sprained left finger, while Emmanuel Mudiay has been upgraded from questionable to probable with a sprained right ankle that has forced him to miss four consecutive games. That said, Mudiay will remain out of the consideration for daily fantasy formats as long as Jamal Murray is healthy given the trend that he really settled into just a mid-teens minutes role off the bench in Malone’s rotation prior to injury. Barring an unforeseen lineup change, Plumlee should continue starting in the frontcourt alongside Nikola Jokic and still offers plenty of upside for his price tag across the industry, assuming he sees somewhere in the ballpark of the 24-28 minutes he’s logged in recent games.This Jazz team is still a less than ideal matchup for opposing frontcourts due to their overall pace of play, but they have become more exploitable with Rudy Gobert sidelined.
As reported by: Harrison Wind via Twitter Other tagged players: Emmanuel Mudiay
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (illness) questionable for Wednesday
Kidd-Gilchrist did not participate in Tuesday’s practice and will be listed as questionable on the Charlotte Hornets’ injury report for tomorrow’s game against the Boston Celtics due to an illness. If Kidd-Gilchrist is unable to suit up, Jeremy Lamb will likely enter the starting lineup and would be in line for a slight increase in playing time, but he typically sees minutes in the high-20s or low-30s so the minute bump would minimal at best. The largest beneficiary in terms of minutes would be Treveon Graham, who finally found his way into associate head coach Stephen Silas’ rotation after logging 28 minutes in the Hornets previous game. However, Graham is still a low-usage player and owns just a 12.7% usage rate with Kidd-Gilchrist and Cody Zeller off the court this season, making him the inferior option to Lamb, who has averaged 0.91 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings and 0.88 on FanDuel in this scenario, and will be firmly in play for his expected price tag on Wednesday’s slate if Kidd-Gilchrist is ruled out.
As reported by: Charlotte Hornets PR via Twitter Elite Value Play on a Tuesday Night
The Magic have been snake-bitten by injuries all year long, and that continues with Nikola Vucevic now out for an extended period of time. Orlando is going to be barren thin on the interior, and Marreese Speights never tends to grab huge minutes. Bismack Biyombo is the biggest beneficiary here, and the sites have not proactively priced him up. He should be staring at minutes in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s, and he adds enough rebounds and blocks to where he should comfortably make value tonight.
Take the Minutes and Usage in a Plus Matchup
One of my favorite teams to target players against is the Magic. They are ranked 23rd or worse in efficiency against all five positions on the floor. The Heat are dealing with a number of injuries, which has forced Josh Richardson into a huge role. He’s playing 36-40 minutes a night and he’s had a higher usage rate in the offense. There are a number of plays on the Heat that I’m interested in, but I love Richardson’s high floor/ceiling combination in both cash games and tournaments.
Hassan Whiteside (knee bone bruise) intends to play Tuesday
Whiteside participated in shootaround and will go through pregame warmups with the intention of playing in tonight’s game against the Orlando Magic after previously being listed as questionable on the Miami Heat’s injury report with a left knee bone bruise that had forced him to miss 13 consecutive games. However, head coach Erik Spoelstra didn’t reveal if Whiteside would immediately regain his starting center role or if he’ll be subject to a minute restriction in his first potential game back. Even with Whiteside looking likely to suit up, Miami remains extremely shorthanded and are still without Dion Waiters, James Johnson, and Justise Winslow, all key rotational players. This means that one if not, both of Kelly Olynyk and Bam Adebayo will remain in the starting lineup for at least one additional game, though they’ll still be allotted extra playing time for the duration of Johnson and Winslow’s absences either way. The presence of Whiteside may alter this sample slightly, but Josh Richardson, Goran Dragic, and Tyler Johnson have been the clear beneficiaries of the aforementioned players’ absences from a usage standpoint, as each own at least a +4.0% usage rate differential with Waiters, Winslow, and James Johnson off the court this season. Additionally, Richardson and Tyler Johnson have both taken advantage of these expanded roles in the offense thus far and are averaging nearly a fantasy point per minute in this scenario, a substantial increase from their normal per minute production on the year.
As reported by: Tim Reynolds via Twitter Short-Handed Team in a Favorable Matchup
The Heat are going to be without Dion Waiters, Justise Winslow, and James Johnson. They could also be without Hassan Whiteside, who is listed as questionable. Short-handed teams are always a good source of value in DFS, especially when they draw a favorable matchup. Johnson will likely draw another start at shooting guard and he should play 30+ minutes in an elite matchup against the Magic.
Are we Falling for Another Trap?
I’ve fallen for the George Hill trap more times than I’d like to admit this season. However, it finally appears that he has turned a corner. Over his last four games, he is averaging 26 fantasy points. More importantly, he is averaging 34 minutes during that stretch. If he plays over 30 minutes against the Clippers, he should easily exceed value at his price point on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I’m buying low on Hill before the price goes up (hopefully from a big game tonight).
Vince Carter (intercostal strain) questionable Tuesday
Carter has officially been listed as questionable on the Sacramento Kings’ injury report for tonight’s game against the Los Angeles Clippers due to a strained intercostal and ribs injury that had forced him to be a late scratch prior to Saturday’s loss. Meanwhile, De’Aaron Fox is slated to miss the next two weeks, so Buddy Hield could possibly draw the start at shooting guard for the second time in as many games after easily exceeding salary-based expectations in 31 minutes on Saturday night. If he doesn’t it, it would be Bogdan Bogdanovic that would reenter the starting lineup, though both wing players should be in line for increased minutes if Carter is unavailable, as head coach Dave Joerger essentially opted to utilize an eight-man rotation in the previous game with Malachi Richardson and Justin Jackson each seeing less than 10 minutes a piece.
As reported by: James Ham via Twitter Chandler Parsons (rest) ruled out Tuesday
Parsons has been ruled out and won’t play in tonight’s game against the Phoenix Suns due to rest purposes, as the veteran forward has yet to play in both legs of a back-to-back set, and be will suit up for Wednesday’s contest instead. The Grizzlies are also without JaMychal Green, leaving them relatively thin at the power forward position, so either Jarell Martin or James Ennis is likely to draw the start at the four spot Tuesday night. While the aforementioned forward duo is likely to see an uptick in playing time, it’s actually been Andrew Harrison that’s seen the largest increase in usage, as he owns a +3.3% usage rate differential with Parsons, Green, and Mike Conley off the court this season, while Marc Gasol has been the largest beneficiary from a production standpoint and has averaged 1.25 fantasy points per minute in this scenario.
As reported by: Grizzlies PR via Twitter Chris Paul (adductor) officially ruled out Monday; Clint Capela (heel) will play
Paul has officially been ruled out and won’t play in tonight’s game against the Oklahoma City Thunder after previously being listed as doubtful on the Houston Rockets’ injury report with a strained left adductor that has now forced him to miss two consecutive games. Meanwhile, Clint Capela has been cleared to play and will suit up following his earlier questionable designation with a left heel contusion that had kept him sidelined for three of the last four games. Capela’s return to the starting lineup will send Nene back to the bench to resume his normal reserve role as the backup center after two rather uninspiring performances in roughly 21 minutes per start. On the other hand, Eric Gordon will make his second start in as many games at shooting guard and exceeded salary-based expectations in 39 minutes in Friday’s loss, making him an elite option for all formats on the Christmas Day slate. In fact, with Paul off the court this season, Gordon trails only James Harden for the team lead with a 28.8% usage rate and has averaged 0.91 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings and 0.84 on FanDuel in this scenario.
As reported by: Jonathan Feigen via Twitter Other tagged players: Clint Capela Marcus Morris (knee) will be limited to fewer than 20 minutes Monday; Shane Larkin (knee) available to play; Semi Ojeleye (back) ruled out
Morris has officially been cleared to play and will suit up for today’s game against the Washington Wizards after previously being listed as questionable with a left knee issue that had forced him to miss nine consecutive games, while Shane Larkin is available to play following an earlier probable designation with left knee soreness and Semi Ojeleye has been ruled out with a sore back. Larkin was made available to play in Saturday’s win, as well, but ended up being a DNP-CD, and his role will be minimal moving forward with Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier ahead of him in the backcourt rotation. As for Morris, he will come off the bench with Aron Baynes remaining in the starting lineup and will be subject to a minute restriction of fewer than 20 minutes as he continues to recover from the aforementioned left knee injury. This removes him from consideration in tournament formats entirely, and if anything, his presence in the rotation is enough to be a slight hit to the projected fantasy value of Baynes and Jayson Tatum, as the latter will likely spend less time manning the four spot in small-ball lineups.
As reported by: Gary Washburn via Twitter Other tagged players: Shane Larkin, Semi Ojeleye Zaza Pachulia (shoulder) and Shaun Livingston (knee) will play Monday
Pachulia and Livingston have each been cleared to play and will suit up for today’s game against the Cleveland Cavaliers after previously being listed as probable on the Golden State Warriors’ injury report as probable with their respective ailments, while Draymond Green wasn’t included on the injury report and will also play, as expected. Head coach Steve Kerr declined to reveal his starting lineup and was also noncommittal about Pachulia regaining his typical starting center spot from rookie Jordan Bell, though he’ll be a thin option in daily fantasy formats either way. The point guard position as a whole has been unproductive with Stephen Curry sidelined and one of Livingston or Patrick McCaw will draw the start at point guard this afternoon. That said, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson will continue to be the main focal points of this Warriors offense and each own at least a +3.1% usage rate differential with Curry off the court this season, while Durant leads the way with a rate of 1.49 fantasy points per minute in this scenario.
As reported by: Connor Letourneau via Twitter Other tagged players: Shaun Livingston Marcus Morris (knee) will play Monday
Morris told ESPN’s Jeff Goodman that he has been cleared to play and will suit up for today’s game against the Washington Wizards after previously being listed as questionable with a left knee issue that had forced him to miss nine consecutive games, while Shane Larkin remains probable with left knee soreness and Semi Ojeleye is doubtful with a sore back. Larkin was made available to play in Saturday’s win but ended up being a DNP-CD, and his role will be minimal with Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier ahead of him in the backcourt rotation. As for Morris, he is likely to come off the bench with Aron Baynes remaining in the starting lineup and should have his minutes limited as he continues to recover from the aforementioned left knee injury. If anything, his presence in the rotation is enough to be a slight hit to the projected fantasy value of Baynes and Jayson Tatum, as the latter will likely spend less time manning the four spot in small-ball lineups.
As reported by: Jeff Goodman via Twitter