Kevin Durant went off with 38 points, as the Golden State Warriors avenged their Game 2 collapse against the Los Angeles Clippers Thursday. Oklahoma City tries to win their first game against Portland, and the Chicago Cubs hope to use a day’s rest to their advantage when the host the Arizona Diamondbacks this afternoon. Here’s a sports betting recap from Thursday and a lookahead to Friday.
Warriors Avenge Collapse
The Golden State Warriors weren’t taking Thursday night off as they avenged their Game 2 collapse by beating the Los Angeles Clippers 132-105.
Kevin Durant gave Clippers guard Patrick Beverley all he could handle, leading all scorers with 38 points after scoring only 21 and 23 points in his first two games.
The public was all over the Warriors with almost three-fourths of bets riding on Golden State. The spread opened Warriors -8.5 but had risen to -9.5 by tip-off. To the public’s delight, the Warriors covered the closing spread by 17.5 points.
As we mentioned in yesterday’s Breakfast Spread, the Warriors play exceptionally well in the first and third quarters — the quarters where Durant, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson see the most minutes together. Thursday was no different, as the Warriors started the game by outscoring the Clippers 41-24 in the first, and 36-24 in the third. Keep an eye on these quarter spreads for Golden State going forward.
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Can the Home Crowd Aid the Thunder?
The Portland Trail Blazers head to Oklahoma City tonight, as the Thunder need all the help they can get after starting the first round series off 0-2 despite being -140 favorites to win the series prior to Game 1.
Oklahoma City has to find a way to stop Damian Lillard who has absolutely torched the Thunder defense with 29 and 30 points so far. In his last five games against the Thunder, two of which took place in Oklahoma City, Lillard has averaged a whopping 35 points.
Lillard and guard CJ McCollum combined for 62 points in a 114-94 Game 2 win, while Paul George and Russell Westbrook combined for 11 of 16 Thunder turnovers.
Oklahoma City (-7.5) is somewhat of a heavy favorite tonight, but expect the home crowd to help the Thunder defense slow down Lillard as the George and Westbrook find their groove offensively. Breakfast Pick: Thunder -7.5
Prop Shop: Over/Under Paul George 29.5 Points
Paul George looked better in Game 2 than he did Game 1, scoring 27 points on 11-of-20 shooting. George claims he’s healthy but his shot still appears to be effected by a right shoulder injury that kept him away from practice leading up to the playoffs. George was efficient from inside the arc Tuesday, but was only 2-for-7 from 3-point range, making him 6-for-22 from 3 for the series. Tracy McGrady went as far as saying that George must be playing with a torn labrum. McGrady is no doctor but Bleacher Report agrees that something isn’t right with the once 2019 MVP candidate. Banking on McGrady’s diagnosis, I’ll continue to bet the Under on George’s points prop. Breakfast Pick: Paul George Under 29.5 Ponts
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Stat of the Day
The San Antonio Spurs (-4.5) took a 2-1 lead, beating the No. 2 seed Denver Nuggets 118-108. Spurs point guard Derrick White came out hungry for Game 3 after Jamal Murray’s 21-point fourth quarter performance in Game 2. White scored a career-high 36 points shooting 15-of-21 from the field. At halftime, White had 26 points, the most points first-half points by a Spurs players since Tony Parker in 2009.
Injury Report
Washington Capitals forward T.J. Oshie ‘won’t be playing anytime soon’ after a controversial hit from Carolina Hurricanes rookie Warren Foegele. Foegele shoved Oshie into the boards during Game 4 of the first round series. The Hurricanes tied the series with a 2-1 win Thursday, and the Caps could be in more trouble as they try to play without Oshie, who was a pivotal piece in their 2018 Stanley Cup run.
FanDuel Sportsbook still has the Hurricanes as +192 underdogs to win the series despite the Caps’ troubles. Compare that to DraftKings Sportsbook, which has the Hurricanes as only +122 underdogs and the Caps -150. Long story short, if you’re still a believer in the Caps, take them at DraftKings Sportsbook. The variance in hockey coupled with Oshie’s absence makes the value with the Hurricanes +192 at FanDuel Sportsbook, but there’s actually an arbitrage opportunity if you bet at both shops. Breakfast Pick: Arbitrage! Carolina Hurricanes +192 to win Round 1 series (FanDuel Sportsbook); Washington Capitals -150 to win Round 1 series (DraftKings Sportsbook).
Cubs Host Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks and Chicago Cubs play a mid-afternoon game at Wrigley Field 2 pm ET Friday. The Diamonds head to Chicago on a four-game win streak after a series sweep in Atlanta.
Arizona used a mixture of offense and pitching to beat the Braves, winning their first game 9-6 and then holding the Braves to a combined 3 runs in the final two games of the series.
The Cubs host the Diamondback after a sweep of their own, shutting out the Miami Marlins in two of three games earlier this week. Chicago outscored Miami 17 to 2 in only their second series win of the season.
The Diamondbacks will put right hander Merrill Kelly on the mound. Kelly started 2019 off as hot as the Arizona desert after playing three years in Korea. In just 19 innings pitched, Kelly has 17 strikeouts and allowed only four runs in his first two starts. His third start wasn’t as successful, allowing four runs through five innings to the San Diego Padres,
Kyle Hendricks gets the start for the Cubs in hopes of earning his first win of the season. Hendricks is 0-3 so far with a disappointing 5.40 ERA, failing to make it past the fifth frame in any of his appearances.
While starting pitching is important, one of the most underrated things in betting baseball is studying relief pitching. Not one Diamondbacks starter made it past 6 innings during their three game sweep of the Braves, and this will be Arizona’s fourth straight day on the road. Chicago’s bullpen, on the other hand, had a day’s rest after being used sparingly thanks to two solid outings for Cubs starters Cole Hamels and Jose Quintana.
The line is off the board early Friday morning at FanDuel Sportsbook and BetStars but you can grab the Cubs at -160 at PointsBet. I expect more money to come in on the Cubs as we get closer to the first pitch, so be sure to grab Chicago as early as you can this morning. Breakfast Pick: Chicago Cubs -160.
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Quick links
The NFL schedule was released! Thomas Casale breaks down the best games of the year and gives Week 1 betting lines with some early picks.
How many more people would watch baseball if they could gamble on it? That’s what a new Seton Hall Sports poll tried to find out.
There’s a new sportsbook being built in New York. Here’s a sneak peek from Thomas Casale.
A betting tale from the Final Four. Matt Schmitto took his alma mater — Texas Tech — to win the National Championship at long odds. He’s finally ready to talk about it.
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