10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for 4-23-2016
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I invariably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Saturday, April 23, 2016.
1.) Jose Fernandez has been utterly dominant against cleanup hitters throughout his career. In 142 PAs against batters in the four spot, he’s got a .198/.275/.262 slash line, and he’s only allowed two balls to leave the yard. That batting average allowed is second only to Jake Arrieta, who’s allowed a .179 average during that same stretch.
2.) Fernandez has seen his command take a turn for the worse at the start of his 2016 campaign, though, as he’s issued three or more walks in two consecutive games (something he hadn’t done since July of 2013, his rookie year). His average fastball velocity also took a slight dip to 94.5 mph in his last start against the Nationals. The last time his heater exhibited that little heat in a game was on May 9, 2014. Maybe it’s nothing, but it’s worth monitoring moving forward, and it throws a bit more cold water onto his already tough matchup against the Giants, who are stingy with strikeouts – their 14.1 K% against RHP is the lowest rate in baseball.
3.) Unlike Fernandez, Masahiro Tanaka has seen an uptick in his velocity. His fastball, slider, and cutter have all increased in velocity with every start this year, and it’s correlated with an increase in strikeout numbers. In his first start at home against Houston, he fanned four (which is low, considering it’s strikeout-happy Houston) with a 9.2 SwStr%. His next start on the road against Toronto, he punched out six Blue Jays and increased his swinging-strike rate to 13.0%. In his last start at home against Seattle, Tanaka again struck out six, but his swing-and-miss stuff was dominant, and his SwStr% jumped to 46.8%. Plus, Tanaka has been getting hitters to chase more pitches outside the zone – his O-Swing% has gone from 23.3%, to 26.4%, to 46.8% in his three games this year.
4.) Inside the strike zone, outside the strike zone – it makes no difference for Tanaka’s opponent on Saturday. As a team, they rank dead last in Z-Contact% AND O-Contact%. They have the second-highest K% against right-handed pitching (26.8%), and they’re a few bad chases away from ranking dead last in O-Swing%, as well (their 31.2% rate currently ranks fourth-worst in MLB, just a shade below the White Sox, who own a league-worst 31.4% mark). And besides Corey Dickerson, who’s hit four homers against righties this year, the Rays haven’t shown any power – Kevin Kiermaier has the only other Rays homer against right-handed pitching in 2016. Side note: Kevin Kiermaier is really hard to spell. Not Mark Rzepczynski hard, but hard.
5.) In 2015, no pitcher was more generous to righty power hitters than Hector Santiago, who allowed 26 homers to RHB. That trend has bled over into 2016 – Santiago has already allowed three homers to opposite-handed hitters. Since the start of 2015, no batter has hit more home runs against lefties than Nelson Cruz. Nelson Cruz faces Hector Santiago on Saturday. Sometimes, DFS is simple.
6.) Given his opponent (the Padres and their 57 wRC+ against RHP), Michael Wacha will no doubt be a popular play today. His matchup might not be as elite is it appears, though. The Padres righty-heavy lineup could be problematic for Wacha, who, throughout his career, has excelled more against lefties (.260 wOBA to LHB, compared with a .313 mark allowed to RHB). He’s also significantly better at home (2.57 ERA at Busch Stadium, 3.87 everywhere else). Additionally, fourteen of the Wacha’s career 30 home runs allowed have been against righties on the road. Couple those numbers with his already-limited K upside, and I’m not so sure Wacha is the cash game staple he appears to be.
7.) Prior to his blowup against the Angels (nine hits and five earned runs while only managing one out – but hey! At least he only walked two!), Carlos Rodon had put together a string of 10 consecutive quality starts.
8.) It’s only 62 plate appearances, but Christian Yelich appears to be a much more disciplined hitter in 2016. He’s only swinging at 11.9% of pitches outside the zone, far below the rate he’s exhibited throughout his career (26.6% in 2015, 22.0% in 2014, 24.2% in 2013). His walk rate is at 22.6%. He’s drawn 14 walks in his first 14 games. For context, last season Yelich didn’t draw his 14th base on balls until June 12.
9.) For even for the staunchest, grizzled, lifelong members of the “BvP is Not a Thing” crowd, it’s hard to ignore Miguel Cabrera, whose history against Corey Kluber is, let’s just say, interesting – 20 hits in 35 ABs (.571 average) including 5 HRs. That’s an OPS of 1.652.
10.) Since the start of 2015, the Braves are the only team in baseball to hold an ISO below .100 against LHP (they’re at .099). During that span, they also rank dead last in wRC+ and wOBA, and despite owning the second-highest ground ball rate in baseball, own the second-lowest BABIP. In other words, those ground balls aren’t scorchers. One more thing: they’re the only team in MLB with zero homers against lefty pitching this year. Fire up Steven Matz on Saturday.
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Thanks for reading! I’ll be posting these on Mondays, Thursdays, and Saturdays this MLB season, so be sure to check back for more notes!
Twitter: @joshuabcole