10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for August 18th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Monday, August 1st.
Hey guys. Sorry for the hiatus from “10 Notes,” but I was out of town (in the DFS-less wasteland that is Tuscaloosa, Alabama) battling terrible hotel WiFi and a packed schedule, so I decided to take a week off. Given that the early slate is only two games, I decided to focus only on the main slate for tonight’s article. Enjoy!
1. Madison Bumgarner hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs at home in 29 consecutive starts, a stretch that dates back to April 22nd, 2015. It’s the sixth-longest streak in the Live Ball Era (which began in 1920), and it’s the longest such streak in Giants history since 1916 (Dead Ball Era), when Rube Benton did it in 37 straight games for the New York Giants (if only we had DFS in 1916…Rube Swenton would have killed it). Against this Yoenis Cespedes-less, Neil Walker-less, David Wright-less, generally punchless Mets squad, Bumgarner has to be considered the safest play on a day rich with high-end pitching.
2. At home this season, Jacob deGrom has struck out at least six batters on 11 occasions. On the road, he’s exceeded a half dozen punchouts just three times. Against a Giants team that fans just 17.5% of the time against righties (giving the Angels, with their league-best 15.7%, a run for their money), there’s just not enough K upside to consider deGrom in any format.
3. If the season ended today, Kevin Gausman 25.6% HR/FB rate to righties would be the highest of any pitcher against any handedness of batter since Brandon Webb’s 26.9% HR/FB to lefties in 2006. Gausman is a “reverse splits” pitcher in that his career numbers are far worse against righties, but his reverse splits-ness has been largely due to bad luck. That HR/FB is absurdly high, and his 29.0% hard hit rate to righties is actually below league average (31.4%). If we believe FanGraphs, who claims that it takes 400 fly balls for a pitcher’s HR/FB% to stabilize, and the fact that Gausman has only allowed 417 total fly balls in his career (a good many of which were to left-handed hitters), we can assume that Gausman’s high HR/FB rate to RHB has the potential to drop over a larger sample.
4. One more Gausman note: since the All-Star break, he has a 27.3 K% – that’s the 12th-best mark in MLB, just a shade below Noah Syndergaard’s 27.6% K rate. His opponent, the Houston Astros, have only 11 home runs since the All-Star break (tied for the fewest in MLB…nine fewer than the Phillies!) – that’s one fewer than Brian Dozier, or Yasmany Tomas. Plus, they strike out at a 24.2% clip against righties (third-highest in MLB). On a day where everyone will pay up for pitching, Gausman is one of the few mid-tier options worth considering in order to differentiate in tournaments.
5. Baseball Reference tracks player and team statistics against “power pitchers,” pitchers who rank in the top third of MLB in strikeouts plus walks over a large sample. It’s safe to assume that Jose Fernandez, with his MLB-leading 35.7% strikeout rate this year, fits into that category. This is important because…the Reds, Fernandez’s opponent on Thursday, have a team batting average of .169 against power pitchers in 2016. That’s the lowest mark in all of baseball. Their .116 ISO against power pitchers ranks 29th in MLB, ahead of only the Atlanta Braves (.102). Without Jay Bruce, Adam Duvall, and potentially Billy Hamilton, the Reds lineup is pretty watered-down these days, making Fernandez’s matchup nearly as safe as Bumgarner’s.
6. In the past 14 days, Freddie Freeman has a (get ready)…69.7% hard hit rate. Not surprisingly, that leads the majors. And he’s swinging for the fences more than ever, with a 54.5% fly ball rate that is fifth-highest in MLB over that stretch. On a day without a clear-cut option at first base, Freeman’s combination of safety and upside makes him playable in all formats.
7. Three of the top five swinging strike rates among qualified hitters since the All-Star break belong to Baltimore Orioles batters – Jonathan Schoop (16.9%, second-highest in MLB), Adam Jones (16.8%, third-highest), Chris Davis (16.4%, fifth-highest). If you want to go further down, Mark Trumbo’s 15.5% (ninth-highest) gives them four of the top 10. In a limited sample, Joe Musgrove has shown strikeout upside (21 strikeouts in 18.1 innings pitched at the major league level), but given all the high-end pitching available on Thursday, it’ll be tough to gamble on him. Still, Baltimore’s swing-and-miss potential is something to monitor moving forward.
8. Matt Shoemaker has just 11 strikeouts in his last four starts. He’s exceeded 11 strikeouts in four single games this season. That, coupled with his recent history against the Mariners (just 10 strikeouts in his last four starts against Seattle dating back to June 26, 2015), means Mariners with high contact skills are in play for cash games, particularly Robinson Cano and…
9. Kyle Seager, who somewhat quietly has posted elite numbers against right-handed pitching this season (.401 wOBA, .256 ISO, 14.9 K%). He’s one of three players with a .400+ wOBA, a .250+ ISO, and a strikeout rate below 15.0% against RHP this year. The other two players on that list are pretty good…they’re David Ortiz and Daniel Murphy.
10. Mike Napoli faces a lefty (Chicago’s Carlos Rodon) on Thursday, which is a matchup he’s dominated this year (.407 wOBA, .272 ISO). But most impressively is the fact that he’s dominated despite having the third-highest strikeout rate in baseball against lefties (31.3%). In fact, he’s just the second player (minimum 130 PA) since 2015 to post a .400+ wOBA and .270+ ISO with a strikeout rate north of 30.0% against any handedness of pitcher (Chris Davis did it in 2015 with .410 wOBA, .350 ISO, and 32.5% strikeout rate against righties).
Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from StatMuse, FanGraphs, and Baseball Reference.
Be sure to check back on Sundays, Mondays, Thursdays, and Saturdays this MLB season for more “10 Notes” articles!