10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NFL Notes for Week 16
This NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for Week 16.
Click here to follow Josh Cole on Twitter.
Week 16
1. Since Week 6, Cam Newton has 553 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns; those numbers have been matched by only 10 running backs in the NFL, and of those 11, the only one who exceeds Newton’s 6.51 yards per carry is Alvin Kamara. Newton has posted 7.3 DraftKings points from rushing alone during this stretch, which gives him one of the highest weekly floors of any QB in the NFL. Granted, Newton’s work in the passing game has been spotty, at best (he’s only eclipsed 200 yards passing in two of his past five games). But with Greg Olsen back to doing Greg Olsen things (9/116/1 line in Week 15), Newton has got his favorite weapon back. And furthermore, he’s in a pristine matchup, as Tampa Bay allows a league-high 271.3 passing yards per game. If Newton keeps running and manages to scrape together 200 passing yards and a touchdown (something the Bucs have allowed a league-high 12 passers to do this year), he should have no trouble exceeding value.
And while we’re here, here’s another Cam stat: Newton has nine games of 40 yards rushing this year; Michael Vick (13 such games in 2006), Randall Cunningham (13 in 1990, 11 in 1989), and Bobby Douglass are the only QBs in NFL history with more games of 40 yards rushing in a season.
2. Since 2015, 12 of Drew Brees’ top 15 DraftKings point totals have come in games at home. While his home/road splits have neutralized this year (18.2 DraftKings points per game at home, compared to 18.0 on the road), the larger sample says Brees is a QB who much prefers playing in the Superdome (24.7 DraftKings points per game at home since 2015, compared to 18.8 on the road). It’s no secret that the Saints’ elite running game has led to a dip in passing attempts for Brees, as he’s posting below 40 passing attempts per game (well below, actually, at 34.1) for the first time since 2010. However, that’s being reflected in his price, as he’s just $6,500, which is as cheap as he’s ever been (or at least dating back to 2014, as far back as RotoGuru.net tracks player salaries). His matchup against the division rival Falcons is solid, as they rank 19th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed multiple touchdown passes to four of the last five QBs they’ve faced. But the real selling point here is that the Saints need to win; unlike many of the late-season snoozers, this game has real life, bona fide division title implications, which means the Saints should play aggressively and rely heavily on Brees. He’s an elite play in all formats.
3. Only one QB has posted three consecutive games of 300 yards and a 119+ passer rating, and it’s not Brees, or Brady, or Ben; it’s Blake Bortles, who has done so on 35, 29, and 26 passing attempts. But lest we think Bortles has “turned a corner,” here’s another note: of the 88 games of 300+ passing yards this year, only 30 have come on 35 or fewer pass attempts, only six have come on 29 or fewer attempts, and only two have come on 26 or fewer attempts. Bortles has never been known for his efficiency, and this week, he’s priced way up to $6,500, in the same tier as guys like Brees, Brady, and Cam Newton, making him an easy fade in cash games. In tournaments, there’s always a case to be made against stacking against the 49ers, who, per Football Outsiders, play at the fastest pace in the NFL (25.44 seconds per play), and who rank 31st in pass defense DVOA. Especially with top wideout Marqise Lee likely out, though, it’s unlikely the Jaguars ask Bortles to do anything besides manage the game, which really limits his upside.
4. Todd Gurley is on pace for 2,076 yards from scrimmage and 19 touchdowns; if he reaches those numbers, it would make him one of 12 players to post such a season since 2000 (joining Priest Holmes, LaDainian Tomlinson, Marshall Faulk, Ahman Green, Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, Randy Moss, DeAngelo, LeSean, Jamaal Charles, David Johnson). Gurley’s price tag has been elevated to $9,300 at DraftKings, but to be fair, this is a player who, given his usage, has been underpriced for weeks now. The matchup against the Titans is far from easy, as Tennessee ranks 10th in rush defense DVOA and is the only defense in the NFL yet to allow a back to exceed 80 yards rushing this year. But if you can’t see that this guy is matchup-proof, you haven’t been paying attention; in five games against teams currently ranking in the top 10 in rush defense DVOA, Gurley has averaged 23.8 DraftKings points. Finding a way to fit in Gurley (aka David Johnson 2.0) is one of my main priorities in tournaments.
5. Speaking of David Johnson, he forced 27 missed tackles on his 80 catches last year, which led all running backs; this year, Alvin Kamara has forced 27 missed tackles on just 68 receptions, and there are still two games to go. Not surprisingly, Kamara’s 128.9 elusive rating at Pro Football Focus leads all backs this year, but just to add a bit of context: last season, Jay Ajayi led all backs (min. 50 percent of team’s snaps)…with an elusive rating of 76. Kamara is in a best-case-scenario matchup against the Falcons, who have struggled mightily against pass-catching backs dating back to last season. This year, they allow the third-most receptions per game to running backs. Kamara is always a better tournament play given the shared usage with Mark Ingram, but outside of possibly Gurley, there’s no back who is a more dangerous dual-threat player than Kamara.
6. Take a look at list of running backs with the most carries inside the five yard line this year:
Todd Gurley – 20
Mark Ingram -16
Carlos Hyde – 16
????? – 15
While the top three on that list are predictable, the player coming in fourth may be a bit more surprising. It’s Carolina’s Jonathan Stewart, appealingly priced at just $3,700 at DraftKings for Week 16. Players like Stewart (i.e. players who only catch one pass between Weeks 6 and 16) are always difficult to click at PPR sites like DraftKings. And while Stewart is as touchdown-dependent as they come…he’s $3,700. Stewart’s Fantasy value definitely suffers from sharing carries with both Christian McCaffrey and his quarterback, but even so, the notion that “Newton is the Panthers’ goal line back” has been really overstated (for context, Newton has just four carries inside the five this year). Stewart is in a better-than-average matchup against the Bucs, a team that ranks 21st in rush defense DVOA and, with star defensive tackle Gerald McCoy out of the lineup, was just gashed by Devonta Freeman for 126 rushing yards on 22 carries (not to mention 68 receiving yards), and his modest salary is much needed in week starved for value options.
7. Jarvis Landry has caught at least five passes in 15 consecutive games; it’s the sixth-longest streak of five-catch games by a player since 2000, and it’s the longest streak in Dolphins franchise history. Sure, many of these catches come at or near the line of scrimmage – his aDOT of just 6.5 yards ranks 79th of 84 receivers with a minimum of 50 percent of their teams’ snaps. Even so, the matchup is elite, as he’ll be primarily in the slot and covered by Steven Nelson, who, since he actually started getting playing time in Week 8, has allowed the fifth-most receptions (21), tied for the most yards (266), the third-highest passer rating (119.6), and the second-most yards per coverage snap (1.73). Landry quietly has the third-most games of 10+ targets, and if we assume he gets close to that in Week 16, he’s got one of the highest floors among the receivers in the mid-range.
8. In the same game, Tyreek Hill has an excellent shot at a big play or two. Why? Over the past six weeks, Miami has given up 29 plays of 20 or more yards through the air, the most in the NFL. While Hill was a difficult play when his price tag was north of $7k, he’s at a much more reasonable $6,500 in Week 16. The boom-or-bust nature of his game means he’s always better suited for tournaments, but the elite matchup makes Hill an excellent one-off with tournament-winning upside.
9. Rob Gronkowski has been a monster over the past three weeks, in market shares of both air yards and targets. Take a look:
Weeks 1-11: 26.0% air yards / 20.0% targets
Weeks 12-15: 52.0% air yards / 37.0% targets
For context, over the past three weeks, only two other tight ends (Travis Kelce, Evan Engram) are responsible for more than 30 percent of their teams’ air yards; Gronk is responsible for 52 percent. Gronk’s splits against his hometown Buffalo Bills have been well documented, and in my Week 13 column, I noted that he was responsible for five of the 10 best tight end performances against the Bills since joining the league in 2010, in terms of DraftKings points. He didn’t disappoint in that game, catching nine passes for 147 yards (26.7 DraftKings points). Also of note is the fact that, while he’s posted at least 147 yards receiving in the past two weeks, Gronkowski hasn’t found the end zone. In fact, those are the only two games in his career with 147 yards and no scores. Positive touchdown variance is coming, particularly if he continues hitting for splash plays; Gronk’s 20 catches of 15+ yards over the past six weeks is the most of any player in the NFL, wide receivers included. New England will be aggressive in this game as they try to lock in home field advantage for the playoffs, and with Chris Hogan and Rex Burkhead both potentially out, Gronkowski should see all the volume he can handle. He’s one of the top overall plays of the week.
10. Cameron Brate has seen at least six targets in a game 12 times in his career; in those games, he’s scored a touchdown in 10 games, and he’s reached double-digits in DraftKings points in 10 games, as well. For Brate, it’s always been about target share, and with O.J. Howard on injured reserve, Brate should see an uptick in targets. The matchup is difficult, as the Panthers rank fourth in DVOA against the position. Even so, value is hard to come by in Week 16, and Brate is priced affordably at just $3,300. He’ll be popular, and he’s busted when he’s been chalk before, but with his price tag, a five-catch, fifty-yard line would put him in line to 3x his value, with a potential touchdown being a bonus.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, Player Profiler, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, NFL.com, and Pro Football Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” NFL articles throughout this football season, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!