10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes for NFL Week 15
Each week during the NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between. I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for the NFL’s Week 15 slate.
1. LeSean McCoy has scored a rushing touchdown once every 10.25 attempts at home this season (eight TDs in 82 attempts) – that’s the best mark in the NFL. He’s got three multi-touchdown games at home, and with Bills being 10-point home favorites against arguably the worst run defense in the NFL (the Browns rank 32nd in the NFL in rush defense DVOA), McCoy is right there with Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson as one of the top RB plays of the week, and he comes at a slight discount compared to those two ($8,900 at DraftKings, $9,000 at FanDuel). Last week’s talk of Mike Gillislee assuming more work in the red zone didn’t come to fruition, as McCoy saw five red zone looks to Gillislee’s zero. He’s one of the week’s top plays in both cash and tournaments.
2. Last week, Kenneth Dixon not only led Baltimore in carries with 11, but he also had a ridiculous 11 targets out of the backfield, including a touchdown grab. Only two other RBs this year have had 11 carries, 11 targets, and a receiving touchdown, and surprisingly, Le’Veon Bell isn’t one of them. The others are David Johnson and Theo Riddick. At just $3,800 at DraftKings and $5,100 at FanDuel, and with the Ravens being favored by almost a touchdown at home, Dixon figures to be one of the most popular value plays of the week.
3. Carson Palmer is 7-for-42 on passes over 20 yards this season with one touchdown and five interceptions. That’s a 17.96 QB rating. While he’s in a near-perfect matchup at home against the Saints, who rank 28th in pass defense DVOA, his inability to be effective in the deep passing game could cap his upside a bit. Even so, given J.J. Nelson crazy low price ($3,900 at DraftKings, $5,000 at FanDuel), he’s in play as a punt WR option in cash games. But given Palmer’s forced reliance on the short pass this year, in tournaments it might be wise to look towards…
4. Larry Fitzgerald, who has been ridiculously efficient this year, catching 70 percent of his passes while ranking fourth in the NFL with 130 targets. If he’s able to keep his catch rate above 70 percent, he’ll end the season as one of four players in NFL history (Marvin Harrison, Antonio Brown, and Wes Welker being the others) to maintain those numbers over a full season. The likely high ownership of David Johnson and J.J. Nelson, coupled with Fitzgerald’s being in an awkward, in-between price range ($7,000 at DraftKings, $7,200 at FanDuel), ensures that Fitzgerald should have minuscule ownership (particularly at DraftKings, where Chris Gimino’s Ownership has him pegged at just five percent).
5. In his last start, Carlos Hyde had 17 carries for 193 yards (against the Jets’ sixth-ranked DVOA run defense, no less), for 11.4 yards per carry. It was a rare feat, as he became the first player since Adrian Peterson in 2007 to have 17+ carries and a yards per carry above 11.0 in a game. It’s only been done 12 times in NFL history, and the list of players who have done it is a who’s who of NFL legends, including Marshall Faulk (1998), Thurman Thomas (1990), Bo Jackson (1987), O.J. Simpson (1975), and Jim Brown (1963). If that’s not interesting enough, here’s this: Hyde’s 193 rushing yards in that game was 24 yards more than his Week 15 opponent, the Falcons, have allowed in the last four weeks (169 yards). Still, they’ve faced a weak group of RBs during that span (hence their place as the 28th-ranked rush defense in DVOA). The 49ers will likely be trailing, but that’s no matter for Chip Kelly; 47 percent of Hyde’s runs this year (90 out of 191 total) have come when the 49ers are trailing.
6. The Philadelphia Eagles have allowed 50 passes of 20 yards or more this year – that’s tied with the Raiders for the most in the NFL. On top of that, they’ve allowed a league-worst 107.3 passer rating in the second half of this season. To add a bit of context, of all NFL QBs, only Tom Brady (113.6) and Matt Ryan (113.2) have higher QB ratings than the 107.3 the Eagles have during that span. The Joe Flacco / Mike Wallace stack will not be popular, but given Philadelphia’s tendency to get beaten deep, it’s one with a ton of upside.
7. Ben Roethlisberger has faced the Bengals on the road 12 times in his career. In those 12 games, he’s only eclipsed 20 DraftKings points just twice (and he barely made the cut in one of those, with a 20.3-point performance in September of 2009). He’s only thrown more than one touchdown pass in four of those games. When you combine that with the fact that the Bengals pass defense has been dominant as of late, allowing an NFL-best 67.3 QB rating in the second half of the season, it not only impacts Ben; it makes guys like Antonio Brown and Ladarius Green much riskier options, as well.
8. Travis Kelce has 100 yards receiving in four straight games. That’s something that the great Tony Gonzalez only ever did once in his career, and in fact, Gonzalez is the only Chiefs player to ever do it. But with zero touchdowns in those four games, he’s due for some serious positive regression. Just to illustrate how unusual it is for a player to be so effective while being held scoreless: Kelce is just the third player in NFL history with four straight 100-yard games and no touchdowns to show for it (the others are Demaryius Thomas in 2014 and Marvin Harrison in 1999). His Week 15 opponent, the Titans, are much more vulnerable to wide receivers, as they allow NFL highs in both receptions per game (15.5) and receiving yards per game (193.5) to wideouts. But it’s hard to argue with Kelce’s recent production.
9. With 13 TDs against the Raiders, Antonio Gates has more career scores against Oakland than any other player in NFL history. Gates continues to see heavy volume (nine targets last week), and in a beatable matchup (Oakland ranks 21st in DVOA against TEs), he’s in play as a cheaper option to Kelce or Tyler Eifert, who figure to see heavy ownership on the high end at TE.
10. Sam Bradford is the only QB in the NFL to not throw an interception at home this year, and his 105.4 QB rating at home is third-best in the NFL, behind only Matt Ryan (112.9) and Drew Brees (108.6). Furthermore, his 72.9 completion percentage leads the NFL. But let’s be serious…this is still Sam Bradford. Against the Colts, though, who rank 32nd (that means last) in the NFL in DVOA against short passes, guys like Stefon Diggs (with 77 percent of his targets being under 10 yards) and Kyle Rudolph (with 7, 10, and 9 targets in the last three weeks) will likely go underowned because of their proximity to Sam Bradford and could be sneaky plays, particularly at PPR sites.
10 Notes” Trivia Contest
Shoutout to Jsowards1984 for being the first to correctly identify Anquan Boldin as the answer to the Week 13 trivia contest!
On to the Week 15 trivia question. As always, leave your answer in the comments thread, and the first to correctly answer the question gets a shoutout in this column next week, as well as the weekly prize: a RotoGrinders t-shirt, sent to your doorstep. Let’s do it!
In Note #5 above, I mentioned that the last player (before Carlos Hyde last week) to have 17+ carries and an 11+ yards per carry average in a single game was Adrian Peterson in 2007. Who is the only other player in the 2000s to do it?
Thanks for reading, everybody! Best of luck this week!