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2023 New York Mets Preview: Futures Odds, Lineup, Rotation, Bullpen Projections

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2023-03-27 19:04:31

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Nick Galaida is here to break down New York Mets’ pitching rotation and lineup as he prepares you for the 2023 MLB season. Follow along for an in-depth team preview, along with a look at current odds, projections and picks. You can get a head start on the baseball action with the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS for a $100 deposit bonus.

In 2021, the New York Mets won 101 games in the regular season but lost in three games to the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card Round, rendering the campaign a failure – especially given the significant financial investment in the roster. This past offseason, Jacob deGrom departed for the Texas Rangers. Still, New York brought in Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, and Jose Quintana to bolster the rotation, in addition to re-signing closer Edwin Diaz to the richest deal in MLB history for a reliever to solidify the backend of the bullpen.

Yet, injuries have put a damper on what would have otherwise been an exciting build-up to first pitch this season in New York. Diaz suffered a complete patellar tendon tear in his right knee during the World Baseball Classic, per Bill Ladson, likely forcing him to miss the entire 2023 campaign. Anthony DiComo reported earlier this month that Quintana will be out until at least July as he recovers from a stress fracture in his rib. Brandon Nimmo has suffered both a knee and ankle sprain during Spring Training, leaving his status for Opening Day in question.

Below, we look at the Mets’ roster, offering analysis on each player, including recommendations on the futures market and for season-long DFS at PrizePicks.

Starting Lineup

Catcher, Omar Narvaez, Tomas Nido

Francisco Alvarez is the catcher of the future for the New York Mets and will likely be promoted at some point this summer. Until then, Omar Narvaez is a capable stopgap in tandem with Tomas Nido.

Narvaez and Nido finished 2022 ranked in the 88th percentile or better in framing. This skill alone makes this tandem valuable for the Mets and their pitching staff during the early portion of the season while they await the arrival of one of the best prospects in Major League Baseball to join the roster. Nido had the far better pop time of the two catchers last season, which could afford him more playing time in this split, considering the expected increase in stolen bases across the league.

Offensively, New York will need to be content with Narvaez, who lost a significant amount of exit velocity and regressed on his in-zone contact rates last season. Nido has poor plate discipline and has never come close to being a league-average bat over a large sample size in the big leagues.

First Base, Pete Alonso

Last season, Pete Alonso was involved in a frightening car crash during spring training, with his vehicle flipping over three times before coming to a rest. Somehow, Alonso emerged from the wreckage relatively unharmed and then went on to play 160 games – hitting 40 home runs and breaking the Mets’ single-season record for RBI.

In 2022, Alonso finished sixth in home runs per plate appearance among hitters with at least 499 trips to the batter’s box. Unquestionably one of the most feared sluggers in baseball, Alonso had the third-highest intentional walk percentage in the league, trailing only Aaron Judge and Jose Ramirez.

Perhaps most impressive, Alonso improved his zone-contact rates once again last season. Since his rookie campaign, Alonso has improved his in-zone contact rate by 3.6% and his overall contact rate by 5.6%. As a result, Alonso improved from the 17th percentile in K% as a rookie to the 63rd percentile in K% in his fourth year.

By all accounts, Alonso is still getting better. His defense remains a concern, but the Mets will surely tolerate his glove if he can continue to do damage at a high level with the bat in his hands. If Alonso can improve upon his 19th-percentile chase rate from 2022, there is very little standing between him and his first MVP award.

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Second Base, Jeff McNeil

Jeff McNeil signed a contract extension this past off-season, which will keep him from being a free agent until 2028. Last season, McNeil became only the second Mets batter to win the batting title, hitting .326 in 148 games played. Seeing McNeil put together such an impressive season was more than a little bit surprising, considering that he posted a career-worst .251 batting average in 2021.

A deeper dive reveals a .353 BABIP, which is generally a huge sign of imminent regression. In the case of McNeil, he has outperformed his xwOBA every season since he debuted in 2018, except for 2021, largely due to his elite contact skills. Last year, McNeil’s BABIP was far from an aberration, considering the fact that he ranked seventh among all qualified hitters in line drive percentage and in the 99th percentile in K%. He ranked 31st among qualified hitters in in-zone contact percentage and seventh in out-of-the-zone contact percentage.

McNeil does not possess elite exit velocity, but he more than makes up for that deficiency with great barrel control through the zone and elite defense at second base. Expect him to continue being a positive impact in this lineup for years to come as long as he can continue to “hit it where they ain’t” – something that could be even easier for McNeil with the shift being restricted ahead of the 2023 season.

Third Base, Eduardo Escobar

Brett Baty looms as a potential upgrade at the hot corner for the Mets later this summer, but the starting third baseman is likely to be Eduardo Escobar on Opening Day. Escobar had a volatile first year in New York, with a 137 wRC+ in April and a 176 wRC+ across the final 30 games of the regular season, but a dismal .201 batting average and a 69 wRC+ from May 2 to August 28.

According to Will Sammon of The Athletic, Escobar was dealing with a personal issue for the majority of the summer months, which he said led to him trying too much at the plate. Escobar communicated that the issue was resolved in late August, which coincided with his renaissance down the final stretch run of the regular season.

Still, Escobar is entering his age-34 campaign and has begun to see regression in his zone-contact rates – a telltale sign of aging. Notably, Escobar, a switch-hitter, batted .231 and had a .681 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2022, compared to a .259 batting average and an .817 OPS against southpaws. It would not be surprising if he found himself in a platoon role if he gets off to a slow start in April.

Baty will be an upgrade, both with his glove and with his bat, when Billy Eppler deems him ready for a permanent promotion. Until then, the Mets could do much worse than a player likely to offer league-average production in an otherwise formidable lineup.

Shortstop, Francisco Lindor

Shortly after New York’s season ended last October, Francisco Lindor “could barely move,” due to lower abdominal discomfort, according to Mike Puma. Lindor ended up undergoing an appendectomy to alleviate the issue. Lindor commented to the New York Post that he had been playing through pain “that would come and go” since August 2021, when he was placed on the injured list with an oblique strain.

Still, Lindor set a new MLB single-season record for RBI by a switch-hitting shortstop last year. In 2022, he ranked in the 55th percentile in average exit velocity, 64th percentile in K%, 53rd percentile in BB%, and 59th percentile in Whiff%, which was far worse than his 2019 peak numbers – 82nd percentile in average exit velocity, 84th percentile in K%, 20th percentile in BB%, and 88th percentile in Whiff%.

If Lindor is truly healthy for the first time in years, following the removal of his appendix, it would not be surprising to see him regain some of his lost power, in addition to improving on his zone-contact rates which have been going in the wrong direction across the last three seasons.

Lindor received one fifth-place vote, two sixth-place votes, and 22 additional down-ballot votes in last year’s National League Most Valuable Player results, despite fighting through an oblique injury for much of the season. At 30:1, Lindor has value in the MVP market, coming off of a ninth-place finish in 2022.

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Outfield, Mark Canha

In his first year with the New York Mets, Mark Canha primarily played left field, hitting 13 home runs while posting strong overall numbers against both right- and left-handed pitchers. According to the New York Post, “Canha said he lifted heavier and worked on becoming more explosive in terms of weight-lifting power” during the offseason, hiring personal strength and performance coaches with a goal of hitting more home runs in 2023. The Mets hold an $11.5 million option on his contract for 2024, which could be a no-brainer for the front office if the veteran slugger can put together another strong campaign this summer.

Outfield, Brandon Nimmo

Brandon Nimmo will enter 2023 with the security of an eight-year, $162 million contract after receiving a big payday during free agency this past winter. Though he is not one of the more recognizable names in Major League Baseball, Nimmo is an outstanding player. He finished last season ranked in the 76th percentile or better in xwOBA, K%, BB%, Whiff%, chase rate, sprint speed, and outs above average.

Only 23 batters finished last season with a lower O-Swing% than Nimmo, meaning that he did an elite job of laying off pitches outside of the strike zone. There is reason to believe that Nimmo can be even better in this area in 2023, considering that last year was his worst grade in this metric since his debut season in 2016. He continues to improve his ability to make contact on pitches in the strike zone and outside of the strike zone, which has helped him consistently post elite on-base numbers.

If Nimmo can stay healthy, he is one of the best center fielders in all of baseball and is well worth his contract. His health is worth monitoring ahead of Opening Day, due to a knee and ankle sprain suffered during Spring Training.

Outfield, Starling Marte

Prior to last season, Starling Marte was signed to a four-year, $78 million deal. Though Marte was more than adequate with the bat in his hands, he stole only 18 bases and played only 118 games due to a collection of injuries, which included left oblique tightness, left quadriceps discomfort, groin tightness, and a non-displaced fracture of his middle finger. This past winter, Marte had surgery on both sides of his groin to repair a group of tendons that had separated from his muscles, per Anthony DiComo. Ahead of Spring Training, Marte said that he is no longer experiencing the lingering leg soreness that plagued him last year.

In 2021, Marte stole 47 bases in only 120 games played. Entering 2023 healthy, he is a legitimate weapon for New York in the 2-hole in this batting order, especially with the new rule changes, which include larger bases. His zone contact rates remained consistent from 2021 to 2022, indicating that the 34-year-old has plenty left in the tank for this upcoming season. He will be worth a look on the stolen base market every single day early in the year.

Designated Hitter, Daniel Vogelbach

After being acquired by the Mets mid-season, Daniel Vogelbach posted a .255 batting average, .830 OPS, and a 144 wRC+ in 183 plate appearances, making it a no-brainer decision to pick up his $1.5 million team option for 2023.

Nevertheless, Vogelbach is best utilized in a platoon role, shielding him from southpaws. Last year, Vogelbach had a .261 batting average, .879 OPS, .236 ISO, and a 150 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, compared to a .139 batting average, .415 OPS, .014 ISO, and a 30 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. In 2021, Vogelbach had only three hits in 34 plate appearances against lefties. In his career, he has only 12 extra-base hits in 307 plate appearances when facing southpaws.

His patient approach and his ability to barrel the baseball against right-handed pitching make him a strong option for the Mets this season at designated hitter, but he is far from an everyday player.

Utility, Tommy Pham

Tommy Pham will be the fourth outfielder for New York to begin 2023 and could see time at designated hitter against lefties. According to Bill Ladson, Pham has left a positive impact on Manager Buck Showalter during Spring Training. Showalter referred to him as a “good teammate” among other compliments when asked about him earlier this month.

Pham played 144 games last season, ranking in the 93rd percentile in average exit velocity and the 89th percentile in HardHit%. His defense is far from elite in the outfield, but his 74th percentile arm strength led to an MLB-best 15 outfield assists in 2022. His 115 wRC+ against southpaws will be a welcome addition for a team that finished last season ranked 14th in OPS against lefties last summer.

Pitching Staff

Starting Pitcher, Justin Verlander

Fresh off of winning the American League Cy Young award, Justin Verlander inked a two-year, $86.67 million deal with the Mets, to replace Jacob deGrom.

Verlander was elite in 2022, finishing in the 74th percentile or better in HardHit%, xBA, xSLG, K%, BB%, and chase rate. His fastball still ranked in the 73rd percentile in velocity. Both his fastball and curveball had elite spin rates.

Still, Verlander is a major downgrade compared to Jacob deGrom, whom he will be replacing in this New York rotation. Last season, Verlander’s impressive stats were buoyed somewhat by an incredibly soft schedule, with 10 starts coming against teams that ranked in the bottom third of the league in OPS against right-handed pitching.

Entering his age-40 campaign, Verlander has an extremely high floor, but he is unlikely to repeat his Cy Young caliber performance from last season.

Starting Pitcher, Max Scherzer

At the time he signed his contract, Max Scherzer had the highest average annual value in major-league history. Despite making only 23 starts in his first season with the Mets, he more than earned his money in 2022.

Following a stint on the injured list in May and June, Scherzer returned to the mound in July to deliver a 1.90 ERA, 2.20 FIP, 31.7 K%, 3.7 BB%, and a 0.84 WHIP across his subsequent 14 outings. He finished the year ranked in the 81st percentile in HardHit%, 86th percentile in xBA, 89th percentile in K%, 95th percentile in BB%, 83rd percentile in Whiff%, and the 90th percentile in chase rate. His spin rates also remain elite.

There is plenty left in the tank when he is healthy, but it seems more likely than not that he will require at least one trip to the injured list in 2023 in his age-38 campaign, especially with the depth that New York has in their rotation heading into the new season. He should not be anyone’s favorite to win the Cy Young in the National League this year, but he is likely to remain incredibly effective when he is on the mound.

Starting Pitcher, Kodai Senga

This past winter, the Mets signed Kodai Senga to a five-year, $75 million contract to replace Chris Bassitt in their rotation. Pitching for two teams in 2022, Senga posted a 1.89 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 27.4 K%, and an 8.6% walk rate across 148.0 innings of work. In his NPB career, Senga owns a 2.42 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP spanning 1,340.2 innings.

Early in Spring Training, Senga was diagnosed with tendinitis at the base of his right index finger, per Mike Puma, but he has since returned to the mound and is on track to be ready for the start of the season.

Still, it is slightly concerning that Senga has not thrown his splitter in either of his last two Grapefruit League starts. Per Tim Healey, Senga attributed part of his finger ailment earlier in the month to his splitter grip, having to adjust to a slightly different baseball in the MLB than the one he is used to throwing in Japan.

Senga is capable of hitting triple-digits with his fastball, but his ghost forkball is unquestionably the pitch that earned him his large salary. His sweeper has performed well to date against big league hitters, but he is clearly not 100% healthy and not 100% comfortable with the new baseball he will be throwing – both things to monitor when the regular season begins.

Starting Pitcher, Carlos Carrasco

This season is the final year of a four-year, $47 million contract for Carlos Carrasco, with the veteran right-hander hitting free agency at the end of 2023. Carrasco was mostly serviceable for the Mets in 2022, finishing with a 3.97 ERA, 4.08 xERA, and a 3.53 FIP across 152.0 innings of work. His primary issues came against better teams. Per Baseball Prospectus, Carrasco had a 6.71 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP last season against teams above the .500 mark, with opponents batting .300 against him in those outings.

Still, he allowed three earned runs or fewer in 22 of his 29 starts last summer. He is an extremely useful member of this New York rotation if he can stay healthy. He could be even more focused in 2023 with a new contract awaiting him this upcoming winter.

Starting Pitcher, David Peterson

Prior to the news that Jose Quintana will be sidelined into at least July, David Peterson was expected to start the season in the minor leagues. However, a strong spring training coupled with an open rotation spot has all but assured Peterson of a role with the big league club in early April – especially after Manager Buck Showalter’s comments suggesting that the team could go with a six-man rotation to begin the new campaign.

Peterson had his best season as a professional in 2022, with a 3.83 ERA, 3.94 xERA, and a 3.64 FIP in 105.2 innings with the Mets. Peterson’s primary issue remains his struggles against right-handed batters, posting a 1.45 WHIP and a 10.9% walk rate against them last season. Other than his slider, which generated a 45.4% Whiff% against righties, he does not have another putaway pitch that he can reliably use to strike out opposing hitters. Until he can figure out that part of the puzzle, deep counts and early showers remain part of the Peterson experiment.

Expect him to be a viable option for New York every fifth day, but do not expect him to do anything particularly noteworthy.

Bullpen:

Relief Pitcher, David Robertson

From 2018 to 2021, David Robertson threw only 18.2 innings at the big league level due to injuries. In 2022, he returned to full health and delivered 63.2 innings of excellent work – posting a 2.40 ERA, 3.05 xERA, and a 3.58 FIP.

His command was a major concern against both left- and right-handed batters, but his elite strikeout percentage helped his cause tremendously. Overall, he finished in the 97th percentile in xBA, 91st percentile in xSLG, and the 90th percentile in Whiff%. His spin rate on his fastball and curveball remained elite as well.

In the absence of Edwin Diaz, Robertson is likely to see a significant number of save opportunities in 2023. Assuming he is healthy, he is more than capable of performing well in this role.

Relief Pitcher, Adam Ottavino

In 2022, Adam Ottavino finished the season with a 2.06 ERA, 2.35 xERA, and a 2.85 FIP. He was downright unhittable against right-handed batters, with a 2.67 FIP, .160 opponent batting average, and a 0.77 WHIP. However, he was much more vulnerable against lefties, with a 3.42 FIP, .301 opponent batting average, and a 1.59 WHIP.

His stark platoon splits likely make him a better setup option than a true closer, but he is still more than capable of being an elite late-inning option for Buck Showalter if used properly in relief. Ottavino ended last season ranked in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity, the 97th percentile in HardHit%, 90th percentile in K%, 82nd percentile in BB%, and 78th percentile in Whiff%.

There is a lot to like here, especially if Ottavino’s improved command from 2022 returns in 2023.

Relief Pitcher, Brooks Raley

In 2022, the Tampa Bay Rays helped Brooks Raley deliver his best season as a professional. In 53.2 innings of work, he had a 2.68 ERA, 2.79 xERA, and a 2.74 FIP. Notably, he threw his changeup and slider far more often against right-handed batters, which finally helped him turn-in palatable numbers against the tough side of the platoon split.

Right-handed batters had zero extra-base hits against Raley’s changeup and only one extra-base hit against his cutter in 71 plate appearances. As a result, Raley posted an excellent 2.87 FIP against righties last year, compared to a 5.12 FIP against righties in 2021.

These gains are likely to be sustainable assuming the pitch mix adjustments carry over to 2023. Raley suffered a left hamstring strain in Spring Training but has progressed to throwing live batting practice and appears on track for Opening Day.

Relief Pitcher, Drew Smith

Across his first 13.1 innings of work in 2022, Drew Smith had a 0.00 ERA, 1.91 FIP, and a 0.75 WHIP. From that point on, he posted a 4.68 ERA, 5.32 FIP, and a 1.32 WHIP.

Smith suffered primarily against left-handed hitters, with a 5.53 FIP and a 1.54 WHIP, compared to a 3.82 FIP and a 0.99 WHIP against right-handed hitters. His struggles against lefties are likely to persist into 2023 unless he develops another reliable pitch beyond his fastball. Expect him to settle into a middle relief role in this arm barn this summer.

Relief Pitcher, Stephen Nogosek

Stephen Nogosek only threw 22.0 innings in the majors in 2022, but there is reason to believe that he will be much more heavily used in 2023. For one, New York will not have Edwin Diaz at the backend of the bullpen this summer, moving everyone else up at least one notch on the relief ladder. Nogosek is also out of minor league options, meaning that the Mets are likely to keep him on the roster for the entirety of the campaign unless his performance suffers dramatically.

Nogosek adjusted his pitch mix last season, which led to improved results compared to his prior MLB stints. However, he remains someone better suited for mop-up duty than as someone who the Mets want in the game during high-leverage situations.

2023 New York Mets Predictions

In total, the Mets have over $100 million in guaranteed money committed to their projected Opening Day starting rotation, with high-quality depth options, David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Elieser Hernandez, and Joey Lucchesi all representing quality depth pieces to help weather any injuries that arise. The fact that Peterson, Megill, Hernandez, and Lucchesi all have Minor League options remaining means that the front office can send any of them to Triple-A without having to risk losing them to other teams through the waiver process. Per Anthony DiComo, the average MLB team ran through 13 different starting pitchers last season, and every club used at least eight different starters.

Based on their pitching staff alone, New York is well-positioned to withstand the grind of a 162-game regular season, which will undoubtedly feature double-headers, injuries, and other unforeseen situations. When factoring in that Francisco Lindor and Starling Marte are both healthy entering this season, not to mention the work of Mark Canha with personal trainers this winter – there are few teams better positioned to dominate the 2023 summer than the Mets.

The loss of Edwin Diaz hurts the bullpen, but there are avenues to addressing that issue midseason if it becomes a point of major concern for this organization. Expect Steve Cohen and Billy Eppler to do whatever it takes to make sure this team does not fall short of expectations. Take the over on their win total.

PICK: Over 91.5 wins (-115, PointsBet)

New York Mets DFS Pick’em

PrizePicks Projection: Pete Alonso more than 38.5 Home Runs
PrizePicks Projection: Francisco Lindor more than 23.5 Home Runs
PrizePicks Projection: Justin Verlander less than 185.5 Strikeouts
PrizePicks Projection: Max Scherzer less than 206.5 Strikeouts

About the Author

nickgalaida
Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom