2023 San Francisco Giants Preview: Futures Odds, Lineup, Rotation, Bullpen Projections
Nick Galaida is here to break down the San Francisco Giants’ pitching rotation and lineup as he prepares you for the 2023 MLB season. Follow along for an in-depth preview, along with a look at current odds, projections, and picks. Get a head start on the baseball action with PrizePicks Promo Code GRINDERS for a $100 deposit bonus.
In 2021, the San Francisco Giants won 107 games and outscored their opponents by 210 runs for the season. In 2022, they won only 81 games and outscored their opponents by 19 runs. It was less an indication that the year prior was a fluke, and more of a realization that analytics cannot overcome a substantive loss of talent and fundamental baseball.
Last summer, the Giants were one of the worst defensive teams in the league, which they paired with frequent errors on the basepaths. Poor defense led to starting pitchers underperforming their peripheral numbers, and starting pitchers underperforming their peripheral numbers led to early exits, which led to an overtaxed bullpen…which led to the bullpen performing much worse in 2022 than 2021, despite returning most of the core members in the arm barn.
It is easy to see the domino effect that derailed San Francisco’s 2022. It is also fair to wonder how much they have improved upon those deficiencies this past winter, with Michael Conforto and Sean Manaea being the only notable additions.
Below, we take a look at this roster position-by-position, and provide insight into the futures market!
- Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 81.5 Wins (-105), DraftKings
- Division Winner: (+1200), FanDuel
- To Make the Postseason: (+205), Caesars
- National League Winner: (+2700), PointsBet
- World Series Champion: (+6000), PointsBet
Starting Lineup
Catcher, Roberto Perez
Roberto Perez was limited to only 21 games played last year with the Pittsburgh Pirates, but will be in the lineup on Opening Day for the Giants in 2023. Perez is a career .207 hitter with massive swing-and-miss concerns. However, he is well-known as one of the better defensive catchers in the league. Following a poor defensive campaign last summer, San Francisco will surely trade offense for defense at the most important position on the diamond.
First Base, LaMonte Wade Jr.
In 2021, LaMonte Wade Jr. earned the nickname “Late Night LaMonte” for his clutchness during the Giants’ 107-win season. He batted .253 with 18 home runs and an .808 OPS. He is strictly the strong side of a platoon, even at his best – due to his .100 batting average with zero extra-base hits against southpaws that year. However, he is a solidly league-average bat with power potential against right-handers. Injuries derailed much of his 2022, but a healthy Wade Jr. could help the Giants immensely in 2023 as they look to return to the postseason.
Second Base, Thairo Estrada
- MVP Odds: +25000
According to Baseball Prospectus, Thairo Estrada was a finalist for a silver slugger award last season in the inaugural year for including utility players as a category. In 140 games played, he had a .260 batting average, 14 home runs, and ranked in the 80th percentile in strikeout percentage.
He chases too many pitches and walks too infrequently to be considered a high-quality option as a starter, but he is plenty capable of making a positive impact with lower expectations. His 76th percentile speed from 2022 makes him a threat on the basepaths this upcoming summer as well, especially considering the new, larger bases.
Third Base, Wilmer Flores
Wilmer Flores has delivered back-to-back, good but not great seasons for San Franciso. Since the beginning of 2021, he owns a .243 batting average, .741 OPS, and is averaging 18.5 home runs per year. In 2022, he ranked in the 29th percentile in average exit velocity and 24th percentile in HardHit%, showing the limits of his power potential. Defensively, he leaves much to be desired.
Shortstop, Brandon Crawford
- MVP Odds: +15000
Brandon Crawford, a four-time Gold Glove recipient at shortstop, has a reputation as one of the league’s premier defensive talents. However his age began to show in 2022, regressing in outs above average.
Crawford also regressed sharply in a number of key offensive metrics. His average exit velocity, HardHit%, xwOBA, barrel rate, and in-zone contact rates each fell off significantly compared to 2021. Notably, his contact% on pitches in the zone fell from 82.1% to 78.9%. Among hitters with at least 400 plate apperanes, Crawford ranked 194th out of 205 batters.
Heading into 2023, it is becoming increasingly clear that Crawford’s days as a starter are limited, and his days as a candidate to win individual accolades are likely in his rear view mirror.
Outfield, Blake Sabol
A former seventh round draft pick, Blake Sabol impressed in the minor leagues last season, hitting .281 with 14 home runs in 98 games at Double-A. In 2022, he will be on the Giants’ Opening Day roster, with a chance to make an impact from the very first inning of the season in the outfield.
He hits the ball on the ground too often to be considered a potential power threat, but a patient approach in the box and reasonable contact skills will give him an opportunity to be an above-average player in the big leagues. He sees right-handed pitchers better than left-handed pitchers, so there is a chance that he ends up operating as the strong side of a platoon in left field.
Outfield, Mike Yastrzemski
- MVP Odds: +30000
In 2020, Mike Yastrzemski was one of the best hitters in baseball during the pandemic-shortened season – posting a 158 wRC+, hitting 10 home runs and walking in 13.3% of his plate appearances. The following year, he hit 25 home runs, but his average, power metrics, and walk rate each regressed by wide margins. Last season, he regressed even further at the plate, with only 17 home runs and a .214 batting average across 148 games played.
At a minimum, Yastrzemski is a high-quality defender in center field who will give opposing pitchers headaches because he refuses to chase pitches outside of the zone. However, his remarkable 2020 is looking more and more like an outlier, despite relatively palatable exit velocity and barrel rates. His biggest hurdle to overcome is his continued struggles against southpaws, against which he had a .179 batting average and a 29.9% strikeout rate in 2022.
Outfield, Michael Conforto
Michael Conforto sat out the entire 2022 campaign, deciding not to rush back to the field after undergoing shoulder surgery in April. Two years ago, he finished in the 87th percentile in walk rate, exhibiting his usual patient eye at the plate. He also maintained his reputation for superb outfield defense, ranking in the 72nd percentile in outs above average.
At the plate, there are slight concerns that Conforto’s average exit velocity has decreased substantially since early in his career. His ground ball rate also spiked from 36.1% in 2019 to 44.7% in 2021 – far from ideal.
At a minimum, Conforto will improve San Francisco’s defense, which was a major focal point this winter for this group. Playing for a long-term deal, it is possible that Conforto is locked-in and we see him return to stardom for a brief stay in The Bay.
Designated Hitter, Joc Pederson
How bad was the Giants defense in 2022? Joc Pederson played 112 games in the outfield. Pederson has never even teased fans with good defense throughout his career, and last year was no exception – he ranked in the second percentile in outs above average.
Heading into 2023, the hope is that San Francisco is able to use him much more, if not exclusively, at designated hitter, where his 98th percentile average exit velocity, 98th percentile HardHit%, and 95th percentile xwOBA will be allowed to shine without caveat.
Against right-handed pitching last summer, Pederson had an impressive .894 OPS and a 149 wRC+ – 49% better than the league average hitter. He can be a tremendous asset for San Francisco if they take his glove away from him.
Pitching Staff
Starting Pitcher:
Starting Pitcher, Logan Webb
- Cy Young Odds: +3000
- PrizePicks Projection: 176.5 Strikeouts
In 2022, Logan Webb turned in another excellent season, despite the fact that the defense behind him was abysmal. He had a 2.90 ERA, 3.59 xERA, and a 3.03 FIP across a career-high 192.1 innings of work.
The biggest impediment to Webb become even better is his inability to consistently get outs against left-handed batters. Last year was more of the same – a 3.41 FIP and a 1.36 WHIP against lefties, compared to a 2.68 FIP and a 0.97 WHIP against righties.
Webb is likely to put together another strong season in 2023, but his ceiling remains limited, making him less than desirable on the futures market.
Starting Pitcher, Alex Cobb
- Cy Young Odds: +15000
At the age of 34, Alex Cobb had his best season to date, despite the fact that he had no help from his defense. Cobb’s 3.73 ERA ranked 71st among pitchers to throw at least 100 innings in 2022, but his xERA ranked 21st and his FIP ranked 10th. Entering 2023, San Francisco has made considerable upgrades defensively in the outfield, which should help his surface-level numbers become more aligned with his advanced metrics.
Opposing hitters had a .232 xBA against his higher-velocity sinker, and a .226 xBA against his split finger, which also generated a 30.3% whiff rate in 2022. Assuming he can stay healthy, Cobb is poised for a strong 2023.
Starting Pitcher, Alex Wood
- Cy Young Odds: +20000
In his first season with the Giants, Alex Wood had a 3.83 ERA, 3.89 xERA, and a 3.48 FIP across 138.2 innings of work. In his second year with the team, his surface-level numbers make it appear as though he regressed sharply. However, much of his ERA regression was due to a poor defense behind him, similar to his rotation-mates.
Wood’s 48.2% ground ball rate still ranked 23rd out of 140 pitchers to toss at least 100 innings. He strikeout numbers fell off slightly, but he also improved his command, resulting in a nearly identical WHIP if adjusting for his defense.
Wood’s ceiling is limited by his struggled against righties, against which he had a 4.41 FIP and a 1.38 WHIP in 2022. However, he is still elite against lefties and still more than capable of getting enough ground balls to limit the damage done against him if the infield behind him can make a few more plays in 2023.
Starting Pitcher, Anthony DeSclafani
Anthony DeSclafani excelled in his first year with the Giants in 2021, with a 3.17 ERA, 3.89 xERA, and a 3.62 FIP. In 19.0 innings to begin 2022, he showed improved command, but continued to do what DeSclafani does – look really good against bad teams, and look really bad against good teams.
An increase in slider usage against left-handed batters over the course of a full season could help him be more productive in 2023, his final year before looking for a new contract. A lack of swing-and-miss stuff limits his ceiling, but his floor is likely much higher than the recency bias from an injury-shorted 2022 would indicate.
Starting Pitcher, Sean Manaea
- Cy Young Odds: +20000
Sean Manaea was a disaster last season, ranking in the eighth percentile in average exit velocity and 14th percentile in HardHit%. His 4.96 ERA and 4.53 FIP across 158.0 innings were both career worst numbers.
Manaea remained somewhat effective against left-handed batters with a 1.05 WHIP, but his 4.62 FIP and 1.38 WHIP against right-handed hitters was backend of the rotation numbers. The Giants are well-known for helping pitchers alter their pitch mix to improve their results, but there is not much to work with when looking at Manaea’s available offerings – righties batted .306 or better against each his changeup, slider, and curveball.
At this point in his career, it is fair to conclude that Manaea will never live up to his lofty prospect pedigree.
Bullpen:
Relief Pitcher, Camilo Doval
Camilo Doval is as good as almost any relief pitcher in baseball. A quick peek at his Baseball Savant chart revelas a lot of dark red, including a 94th percentile average exit velocity, 81st percentile strikeout percentage, and 83rd percentile whiff rate.
A consistent release point on all three of his offerings make it nearly impossible for opposing hitters to know what they are swinging at. Unsurprisingly, opposing hitters had a .213 batting average against him in 2022 and a .192 batting average against him in 2021.
Expect him to be dominant again this summer.
Relief Pitcher, Tyler Rogers
Tyler Rogers limited hard contact more than everyone last year, ranking in the 100th percentile in average exit velocity. His ability to survive is directly related to the quality of contact allowed because he does not miss many bats – evident by his seventh percentile strikeout percentage and seventh percentile whiff rate.
Across the last four seasons, Rogers owns a 2.94 ERA and a 3.23 FIP. He is best used against right-handed batters, and is likely to have another strong season if he is used properly by manager Gabe Kapler.
Relief Pitcher, Scott Alexander
Scott Alexander was limited to only 17.1 innings in the big leagues in 2022, but he looked good when he was available – posting a 1.04 ERA, 2.35 xERA, and a 2.88 FIP. Opposing left-handed batters stand little to no chance against his sinker and slider, but the lack of diversity in his arsenal leaves him vulnerable to righties.
Similar to Rogers, Alexander is best utilized against specific sections of the opponent’s lineup. If he is not asked to do things he is not good at, he will be able to produce strong results.
Relief Pitcher, John Brebbia
John Brebbia threw 68.0 innings last year for the Giants, posting a 3.18 ERA, 3.49 xERA, and a 3.32 FIP. A full two years removed from Tommy John surgery, he is a viable middle reliever for this arm barn.
Relief Pitcher, Taylor Rogers
Taylor Rogers made a clearly intentional change to his slider last year, which reduced the offering’s velocity by over three miles per hour compared to 2021. Opposing batters hit only .191 against the pitch, with a 38.0% whiff rate, but it was his sinker that consistently got him into trouble. Opposing batters had a .306 batting average and a .439 slugging percentag against his sinker, rendering moot all of the success that his slider enjoyed. Perhaps the Giants can straighten him out in 2023, as they are known to do.
San Francisco Giants – Futures Pick & Prediction
Baseball Prospectus has the Giants projected as the 21st-best defensive team in baseball this year and the 29th-best baserunning team in the league. Though their pitching staff should be much better in 2023, there is very little reason to fear the offense. Last year, San Francisco had a very disciplined approach at the plate, but they simply struggled to make contact on hittable offerings – something that is not easy to fix without bringing in new talent.
In a competitive National League West division, San Francisco’s path to a winning season is uphill. Take the under on their season-long win total.
PICK: Under 81.5 wins (-115, DraftKings)
2023 San Francisco Giants DFS Pick’em
- PrizePicks Projection: Logan Webb more than 176.5 Strikeouts