2023 Washington Nationals Preview: Futures Odds, Lineup, Rotation, Bullpen Projections
Nick Galaida is here to break down the Washington Nationals’ pitching rotation and lineup as he prepares you for the 2023 MLB season. Follow along for an in-depth preview, along with a look at current odds, projections, and picks. Get a head start on the baseball action with PrizePicks Promo Code GRINDERS for a $100 deposit bonus.
To be frank and to get to avoid burying the lede, the Washington Nationals are the most poorly operated organization in Major League Baseball. Washington’s continued emphasis on antiquated player evaluation methods has led to failure after failure in their minor league system. The one notable exception is “(player-popup #juan-soto)Juan Soto”:/players/juan-soto-326703…who was traded to the San Diego Padres last summer.
Jarrett Seidler eloquently quipped in Baseball Prospectus this year that Washington has “paired poor drafting with poor player development.” Adding to that comment, I will add “poor trade deadline decision-making.”
At the 2021 trade deadline, Treat Turner was inexplicably thrown into a Max Scherzer trade to the Los Angeles Dodgers, without any notable star prospect coming back to the nation’s capital in return. Last year’s Soto trade returned James Wood, CJ Abrams, Robert Hassell III, and MacKenzie Gore. Besides Wood, every prospect in the deal has raw tools that need to be refined by an analytically-driven organization that can help turn deficiencies into strengths – something Washington has not done well in over a decade.
Heading into 2023, the Nationals are bereft of talent at the Major League level, with little help on the way from the minors. At the risk of spoiling the information below, there is nothing to look forward to for this team over the next five months, and there is a zero percent chance that this team will be playing meaningful baseball six months from now.
Below, we take a look at this roster position-by-position and provide insight into the futures market!
- Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 59.5 Wins (-110), DraftKings
- Division Winner: (+30000), PointsBet
- To Make the Postseason: (+3000), FanDuel
- American League Winner: (+25000), DraftKings
- World Series Champion: (+50000), DraftKings
Starting Lineup
Catcher, Keibert Ruiz
- MVP Odds: +20000
A centerpiece of the return in exchange for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner, Keibert Ruiz was underwhelming in his first extended big-league action in 2022, posting a .251 batting average and a .673 OPS at the plate. He made contact at an elite level, ranking in the 97th percentile in strikeout percentage. Still, he rarely did much damage with the bat – ranking in the 33rd percentile in average exit velocity and the 11th percentile in HardHit%. His walk rate left much to be desired, and he swung at far too many pitches outside of the zone to be taken seriously by opposing pitchers.
He also graded out poorly behind the dish, ranking in the 25th percentile in pop time to second base and the 23rd percentile in framing. Heading into 2023, a year in which controlling the running game will be incredibly important, Washington is not well-equipped to do so.
Ruiz is still only 24 years old with time to improve, but he is far from an asset at this point in his career.
First Base, Joey Meneses
- MVP Odds: +15000
- PrizePicks Projection: 23.5 Home Runs
It is not often that we see a player make his MLB debut at the age of 30, and it is even rarer that we see a player be successful in his rookie season after taking so long to get to the show. Meneses destroyed left-handed pitching, ending the year with a .366 batting average and a 1.084 OPS against southpaws. His 201 wRC+ in these situations was 101% better than the league-average hitter.
Unfortunately for him, regression appears on the horizon in 2023. Meneses’ .371 BABIP was the third-highest of any hitter in baseball with at least 200 plate appearances. Meneses did hit a lot of line drives and he made hard contact frequently, supporting the notion that he could conceivably run a high BABIP year over year. He also showed no weaknesses against particular pitch types, with a .538 slugging percentage or better against fastballs, breaking pitches, and offspeed offerings. Still, even the best batted-ball metrics in the world would have difficulty replicating such good fortune on balls in play.
It is possible that Meneses finds a way to post a .275 batting average this summer, but he would certainly be an outlier if he can be one of the few individuals to begin a successful major league career on the wrong side of 30 years old.
Second Base, Luis Garcia
Luis Garcia posted a .275 batting average in 93 games played last year, but a paltry 2.9% walk rate and poor defense at second base are not selling the franchise on his long-term viability at the position.
He ended the year worse than the league-average hitter in average exit velocity, HardHit%, xwOBA, barrel percentage, strikeout percentage, walk rate, whiff%, chase rate, and nearly every possible defensive metric. He projects to have an everyday role for Washington in 2023.
Third Base, Jeimer Candelario
In 2021, Jeimer Candelario played 149 games and had a .271 batting average, a 10.4% walk rate, and appeared to be an emerging everyday third baseman for the Detroit Tigers. In 2022, he regressed sharply across the board, hitting .217, striking out more often, walking less often, and hitting the ball with less authority when he did make contact.
By September, Candelario was routinely being held out of the lineup in the Motor City. His regression seemed to be driven, at least in part, by an uptick in breaking balls, against which he had a .181 batting average and a .293 slugging percentage. Candelario is likely a stopgap rental until Carter Kieboom can return to the field following Tommy John surgery.
Shortstop, CJ Abrams
- MVP Odds: +20000
CJ Abrams was selected with the sixth overall pick in the 2019 draft, but he has routinely underperformed expectations at each stop throughout his professional career. In the minor leagues, he hit 12 home runs in 118 games played overall. Discounting his torrid numbers from rookie ball, he had only a .272 batting average in 378 plate appearances spanning Single-A to Triple-A.
In his first taste of big-league action, Abrams batted .246 with an incomprehensibly-low 1.7% walk rate. His 71 wRC+ ranked 255th out of 276 players with at least 300 plate appearances. Against left-handed pitching, Abrams had a .157 batting average with only three extra-base hits (no home runs) in 92 plate appearances.
Abrams’ outlook for 2023 and beyond would be much more optimistic if he were immersed in an environment each day that could help him optimize his raw tools. Instead, he seems destined to earn the “bust” label sooner rather than later.
Outfield, Corey Dickerson
Corey Dickerson played 97 games for the St. Louis Cardinals last year, batting .267 with a .698 OPS. His power numbers were the worst of his career nearly across the board, setting career worsts in ISO and slugging percentage. He came close to career worsts in HardHit% and barrel rate.
Dickerson is a complete liability against left-handed pitching, evident by his .077 batting average and 28.6% strikeout rate against southpaws in 2022. Against righties, he can still do damage from time to time. Needless to say, he is best suited for a platoon role, rather than seeing at-bats on a daily basis.
Outfield, Victor Robles
Remember when Victor Robles was a can’t-miss prospect? I’m sure Pepperidge Farm remembers, but the memory is quickly fading for everyone else. Since Robles debuted in 2017, he owns an unimpressive .233 batting average, 5.9% walk rate, .666 OPS, and impossibly poor batted-ball metrics.
Last year, he ranked in the first percentile in average exit velocity, HardHit%, xwOBA, xSLG, and was only marginally better in xBA, and barrel percentage. Simply, he is one of the worst offensive players in baseball, who continues to get everyday opportunities as a result of his elite defense in the outfield.
“Bust” is not a term to be thrown around lightly, but we have reached that point in the conversation concerning Robles’ career.
Outfield, Lane Thomas
In his first full season as a big-leaguer, Lane Thomas struggled to a .241 batting average and a .705 OPS. He was particularly poor against right-handed pitching, striking out 26.6% of the time.
Thomas ranked in the 10th percentile in average exit velocity and the 20th percentile in HardHit% in 2022. His defense in the outfield was worse than the league average. He’s incredibly fast, but there is not much else good news to deliver here.
Designated Hitter, Dominic Smith
Dominic Smith has never been a standout defender at first base and he only briefly showed glimpses of potential at the plate in 2020. Last year, he played 58 games for the New York Mets, hitting .194 with zero home runs in 152 plate appearances. There is no need to dig deeper here because there is nothing positive that we will find.
Pitching Staff
Starting Pitcher:
Starting Pitcher, Patrick Corbin
- Cy Young Odds: +30000
- PrizePicks Projection: 5.41 ERA
Among 140 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings in 2022, Patrick Corbin ranked 140th in ERA, 140th in xERA, 126th in FIP, 140th in WHIP, 111th in strikeout percentage, 131st in HardHit%, 138th in barrel percentage, and 120th in contact percentage on pitches thrown in the strike zone.
By nearly all accounts, Corbin was the worst starting pitcher in all of baseball last season. He had a 1.68 WHIP against right-handed batters and a 1.75 WHIP against left-handed batters. He became more hittable each time through the order when on the bump, an obvious sign that he is not doing anything particularly deceptive with the ball in his hand.
The logical conclusion here is that, of course, Corbin will be Washington’s Opening Day starter in 2023. Of course.
Starting Pitcher, Josiah Gray
According to pitching coach, Jim Hickey, Josiah Gray has made some mechanical tweaks to his delivery ahead of Opening Day, – notably, working to keep his front shoulder closed. An open front shoulder can hurt command, which can lead to a lot of hard-hit balls and walks. In 2022, Gray gave up 38 home runs and finished in the 17th percentile in walk rate. If he can maintain his new delivery, both of these numbers should improve tremendously in 2023.
Gray also had horrendous splits against left-handed batters last summer, with an 8.07 FIP, 15.7% walk rate, and a 1.81 WHIP. To address this issue, Gray reportedly developed a cutter this past winter.
There is a long way for him to go after posting a 5.02 ERA, 4.25 xERA, and a 5.86 FIP last year, but it is always encouraging to read reports of young players working tirelessly to refine their craft. Gray could be a breakout candidate for this upcoming season.
Starting Pitcher, MacKenzie Gore
As recently as 2020, MacKenzie Gore was the consensus top pitching prospect in all of baseball. After getting demolished across three different levels of the minor leagues in 2021, the hype slowed somewhat, but it was his MLB rookie season that really hurt his brand.
In 70.0 innings with the San Diego Padres in 2022, Gore had a 4.50 ERA, 5.21 xERA, and a 4.11 FIP. He had a 1.46 WHIP against right-handed batters and a 1.50 WHIP against left-handed batters, struggling to keep anyone off of the basepaths. His 12.0% walk rate ranked 185th out of 188 pitchers who threw at least 70 innings last year.
Entering his sophomore campaign, Gore no longer looks like a can’t-miss prospect. Instead, he looks like a pitcher who is simply struggling to prove that he can perform well enough to stick in any rotation at all.
Starting Pitcher, Trevor Williams
Last year, Trevor Williams had a 5.00 FIP and an 18.2% strikeout rate as a starter compared to a 3.03 FIP and a 25.8% strikeout rate as a reliever. When asked to start games, he gave up nearly two home runs per nine innings, compared to less than one home run per nine innings as a reliever.
Williams struggled to a 5.48 FIP, 1.59 WHIP, and an 8.8% strikeout rate against left-handed batters, compared to a 2.93 FIP, 31.7% strikeout rate, and a 1.01 WHIP against right-handed batters.
It is abundantly clear what type of results to expect from Williams in 2023 if the Nationals insist on handing him the ball to start every fifth day against teams that are likely to stack their lineup with as many left-handed bats as possible.
Starting Pitcher, Chad Kuhl
Following the pre-season injury to Cade Cavalli, Chad Kuhl is slated to round out Washington’s starting rotation to begin 2023. Last year, Kuhl had a 5.72 ERA, 5.31 xERA, and a 5.26 FIP pitching for the Colorado Rockies. He had a 1.51 WHIP or worse against both left- and right-handed hitters.
Simply, Kuhl will be asked to eat innings and to keep the scoreboard looking somewhat respectable on days when he toes the rubber. Easier said than done with his pitch arsenal and command.
Bullpen:
Relief Pitcher, Kyle Finnegan
Kyle Finnegan is a solid relief arm, but he does not possess the talent level typically associated with a closer. In 2022, he had a 3.51 ERA, 3.29 xERA, and a 3.76 FIP across 66.2 innings of work.
He was much better against left-handed hitters than he was against right-handed hitters, with the exception of his walk rate. He ranked in the 10th percentile in average exit velocity and the 11th percentile in HardHit% last year, rarely getting opposing batters to swing at pitches outside of the strike zone.
He may or may not stick in the ninth inning this summer.
Relief Pitcher, Carl Edwards Jr.
Carl Edwards. Jr. is likely the most talented member of this Washington arm barn. In 2022, he ranked in the 69th percentile in average exit velocity, 69th percentile in HardHit%, and 57th percentile in chase rate en route to a 2.76 ERA, 3.31 xERA, and a 4.24 FIP. He struggled to a 1.44 WHIP against left-handed hitters but did a much better job limiting traffic against righties.
Considering their splits, Finnegan and Edwards Jr. could be best used based on matchups in the final two frames when the Nationals have a lead that they are trying to protect.
Relief Pitcher, Hunter Harvey
Hunter Harvey threw only 39.1 innings last year for the Nationals, but he was effective with a 2.52 ERA, 2.76 xERA, and a 2.07 FIP. He struck out 28.7% of the batters he faced and allowed slightly over a baserunner per inning.
He is a solid option against both right- and left-handed batters, but his 11.7% walk rate against lefties is a cause of high blood pressure in the dugout late in games. On a better team, he is likely a middle relief option, rather than someone who will be considered for high-leverage work in 2023.
Relief Pitcher, Thad Ward
According to CBS Sports, Thad Ward has not been a reliever since college, but he is fighting for a role in Washington’s arm barn this spring after being selected in the Rule 5 draft this past year. During spring training, Ward owns an 11:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 8.2 innings of work.
In most other organizations, Ward would be in the minor leagues to begin the year.
Relief Pitcher, Erasmo Ramirez
Erasmo Ramirez quietly had an extremely productive 2022 for the Nationals in relief. He finished the year with a 2.92 ERA, 3.49 xERA, and a 4.05 FIP across 86.1 innings of work. His cutter was a strong weapon against left-handed batters, holding them to a .164 batting average and a .246 slugging percentage. If Ramirez was pitching for another team, it is likely that he would elevate his curveball usage going into 2023, which could unlock another level of dominance from him. Alas, he is with the Nationals, and likely to produce another modest campaign as a capable middle reliever.
Washington Nationals – Futures Pick & Prediction
The Washington Nationals have the worst offense in baseball, the worst starting rotation in baseball, and one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Defensively, Baseball Prospectus has Washington projected as the third-worst defensive team in the league and 21st out of 30 teams in baserunning.
After winning a league-worst 55 games in 2022, it somehow feels as though the Nationals have gotten even worse heading into 2023. There is very little to look forward to for Washington fans this summer – take the under on their team total.
PICK: Under 59.5 wins (-110, DraftKings)
2023 Washington Nationals DFS Pick’em
- PrizePicks Projection: Joey Meneses less than 23.5 Home Runs
- PrizePicks Projection: Patrick Corbin less than 5.41 ERA