Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Thursday, April 14th
We’re examining just five night games tonight which gives us a minute or so to talk about some other things up at the top.
Firstly, tomorrow is the first full night schedule of the season (14 games – 1 day) and I’m going to make a concentrated effort to keep it a reasonable size as I sometimes got carried away last season. This is for both our benefits, but it means there may be some pitchers we don’t talk about at all. That doesn’t mean I don’t like them (no, it probably does), but there are going to be plenty of other times I say things about them that apply more than once and a lot of times you can see right there in the numbers (probably in red) why we’re not wasting words.
Also, those words may be a little bit late tomorrow due to a morning doctor’s appointment. This is also a reason why Friday’s particular article may even be less wordy than you can normally expect on full days.
Lastly, we’re into the third time around for about half of today’s pitchers, which means by next week we’ll be entirely into this year’s numbers and I can get rid of some of the disclaimers throughout.
New season changes to the article were outlined on Opening Day, which you can find here so we won’t repeat those again. Park factors were supposed to be updated over the weekend, but Seamheads.com still seems to be behind, so we’ll give it a few more days before searching for another avenue.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 4.46 | 5.72 | 1.13 | 1.08 | 4.75 | 2.28 | TEX | 43 | 72 | 93 | |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 3.38 | 6.72 | 1.56 | 1.08 | 3.19 | 3.33 | BAL | 157 | 91 | 152 | |
| Doug Fister | HOU | 4.12 | 6.22 | 1.4 | 1.01 | 4.52 | 3.07 | KAN | 85 | 76 | 104 | |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 3.54 | 5.89 | 1.03 | 1.01 | 4.13 | 3 | HOU | 137 | 124 | 126 | |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 3.49 | 5.7 | 1.04 | 1.05 | 3.75 | 4.32 | CIN | 66 | 68 | 103 | |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 3.28 | 6.16 | 2.17 | 1.05 | 3.65 | 4.04 | NYY | 102 | 149 | 118 | |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 4.01 | 5.85 | 1.58 | 1.05 | 3.71 | 2.58 | TOR | 99 | 96 | 100 | |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 3.29 | 5.78 | 1.37 | 1.05 | 2.84 | 3.53 | CHC | 102 | 137 | 118 | |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 4.27 | 5.31 | 1.13 | 0.89 | 4.11 | 6.65 | LOS | 85 | 68 | 83 | |
| Ross Stripling | LOS | 6.04 | 7.1 | 0.88 | 0.89 | 6.04 | ARI | 98 | 88 | 71 |
I want to add a late note being placed after everything has been written, that I just had a short conversation with Eno Sarris on twitter questioning the difference between Fangraphs and Brooks Baseball velocity, which always happens to be higher and often mentioned today. I learned, “brooks measures from a different point. Usually about +1.” Also, “more people use the raw PFx, the one on FG.” Thank you Eno, who is a must follow for baseball enthusiasts.
Chris Tillman makes his 3rd start, though he’s only thrown seven innings through his first two. One was due to rainout, while he was removed from the latter after just five innings and 19 batters (83 pitchers) for some unknown reason. Combined, they make for one dominant start. He’s struck out 10 of the 25 batters he’s faced, allowing just six base runners. After some excitement about his velocity being up in the rain shortened outing, he looked to be back to normal more recently via Fangraphs, though Brooks Baseball still had him at 93.5 mph. He’s generated a few more ground balls and weaker contact than usual, but we’re still only talking about 13 batted balls. I’m just looking for things to talk about because you can see all through this article today that his numbers are horrible aside from the most recent 105 pitches he’s thrown, where he’s suddenly missed 16 bats. If forced to choose, I’d have to rely on what I know (or at least thought I knew) about this pitcher, which means we need much more proof that these underlying numbers are real and I wish he were pitching Friday so I could just dump him below and move on until next time. The Rangers have not fared successfully against RHP so far.
Cole Hamels looks like a remarkably consistent pitcher from the numbers above. His SIERA over the last two years is similar to his Home xFIP since last season (despite two different homes), which is similar to his SIERA in two starts this year, which just about matches his 3.30 career ERA. It’s just how he gets there game to game that might drive you nuts. He allowed two HRs, but struck out eight in his first start, but then none with just four in his last and has walked three each time. It’s basically those walks and HRs that keep him from being an elite pitcher in my mind as the bat missing ability is there. In just 55 attempts, Baltimore has not handled LHP nearly as well as RHP, though Hamels has a slight reverse platoon split (.293/.301) for his career due to an excellent changeup.
Ian Kennedy had a very successful Kansas City debut, striking out seven of 25 Twins in 6.2 innings. I don’t often toot my own horn, I’m not a horn tooter, but I mentioned that his skillset could make him a great pickup in that park with that defense. The defense remains tonight, but he’s not in Kansas (City) anymore and these ain’t the Twins. That, like yesterday’s KC starter, makes him very interesting again, but he’s more of a fly ball pitcher, making him a bigger risk in Houston. One other thing to mention is that his velocity was up over last year in his first start. You can see a LOT of hard contact in his Batted Ball line below and Houston has pummeled RHP (20.0 HR/FB) so far, but also struck out a ton (28.1%) against them. As such, Kennedy projects to generate the most strikeouts, but also allow the hardest contact tonight.
Jason Hammel was good in his first start in Arizona, striking out six of 23 batters, but also walking three. He went six innings which is more than he was often allowed to in the 2nd half of last season, but also only 89 pitches, so we’re still not sure what type of limits are being imposed upon him and that’s an area of concern. The stuff isn’t in question, but the hard contact is a little high. Maybe the Cubs have information that he tired after a certain point to where that increases late in games and is trying to avoid that. Brooks Baseball has usage and outcomes for times through the order and a quick look shows that like most pitchers, his ISO gets worse the third time through, but it doesn’t look to be dramatic and his velocity seems to hold. I’m not sure the reason. The Reds have struggled against RHP so far.
Marcus Stroman hasn’t pitched many innings since the start of last season (40.1 now), but seems to be setting a trend as more of a ground ball pitcher than a high strikeout one with a GB% above 60, but a K% at around 17. That has real life value in Toronto, but we may soon need to rethink his value in terms of daily fantasy. It’s too early to say, but his first start was very good, while his last started well, but ended badly against Boston at home. His hard contact rate is a bit high (32.6%), but a standard 10.0 HR/FB only means 1 HR at this point because he keeps the ball on the ground. He’s previously been great at suppressing hard contact and weak ground balls are the next best thing behind strikeouts and pop ups, but riskier in terms of generating fantasy points. The Yankees have been very efficient against RHP (17.5 K%, 23.3 HR/FB) in 189 PAs so far.
Ross Stripling far over-achieved in his first major league start, as one tends to do when they enter their 2nd major league start still not having allowed a hit. Much controversy occurred when he was removed after 100 pitches. Harold Reynolds blamed sabermetrics and sent this writer to the edge of his sanity for a minute as also tends to happens until one mutes Harold Reynolds. More sane people and educated people realized that this was a pitcher not far removed from Tommy John surgery. What we need to take from this is a pitch count being placed on him, though the immediate issue is likely to be high expectations. He’s obviously not this good, but likely doesn’t have front of the rotation stuff (he struck out as many as he walked – four each). Generating as many fly balls as grounders is not likely to hurt you in San Francisco or even LA all that much, but there’s really nothing that stands out about him that should lead to spectacular expectations. The pitcher unseen bonus may still exist with him tonight as Arizona still hasn’t seen him, but you can be damn sure they know about him now.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Doug Fister was “(classname)topping out at 90 mph(title tooltip)”:http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/one-early-spring-change-to-believe-in/ this spring! He did no such thing in his “(classname)first start(title tooltip)”:http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=9425&position=P&pitch=FT. He struck out six of the 21 batters he faced in his first start! He had an 8.1 SwSTr% and those were Brewers. Everybody strikes them out. Not that an 8.1 SwStr% doesn’t represent a hug improvement over the last two years back to what he was doing in his Tiger years. He’s facing Kansas City tonight. He may not miss any bats. Though eight of his 13 batted balls were on the ground, six were considered hard hit and only one particularly weak grounder.
Nathan Eovaldi is the most painful pitcher to talk about today because there’s some interesting stuff going on (finally!), but facing the Blue Jays in Toronto makes it all useless right now. He started using his splitter more (around 20%) last June after discovering in in September of 2014. It has consistently generated whiffs between 15-20%. His K% increased from 16.5 to 20.7 after the break last season and he struck out seven of 21 Astros in his first start. The Blue Jays are a different animal, but maybe not so much so far as you can see a 27.6 K% vs RHP below. They’ve been about average against RHP and are expected to be less potent than against lefties, but these are not yet stable numbers and they were the top offense vs RHP (117 wRC+) last year. I’m kind of hoping his price decreases after tonight’s start, leaving him under the radar in his next start.
Raisel Iglesias was a DFS darling in the 2nd half of last season with a high strikeout rate despite an ERA above four. He’s picked right back up, striking out 12 of 49 batters through two starts, but with some discrepancy in his batted ball rates. His hard and soft contact rates remain equally strong, but both the fly ball and line drive rates have increased significantly through two starts. Again, we’re not yet at stabilization points, so it’s not of concern as long as he keeps missing bats. Here’s the concerning thing, both BB and FG have his velocity down well over a mile per hour and even worse in his 2nd start than his initial one. Additionally, the Cubs have been very good and patient vs RHP, not even striking out all that much. It’s odd that everybody is finally on board this train, but it might be time to hop off, at least for one start.
Robbie Ray only allowed four hard hit balls (of 17 batted) in his first start, but six line drives and nearly threw more balls than strikes, walking four and striking out just three of the very patient 25 Cubs he faced. The Dodgers maybe just as patient and like to platoon heavily, likely to moving some right handed bats into the lineup (although lefty masher Van Slyke just hit the DL). Last year, Ray missed bats at a league average rate, but somehow generated a very low HR rate (7.3 HR/FB) despite allowing a ton of hard contact (19.8 Hard-Soft%). The HR rate rose as the year went on, but never entirely caught up with him because that’s not how regression works. There’s no makeup so you allow twice as many HRs as originally expected until you catch up or at least it’s not expected work that way. His HR/FB was well over 12% from August on and that’s potentially to be expected with a lot of hard contact in Arizona. The Dodgers have struggled in just 78 attempts against LH pitching, but that’s not expected to continue and they still have just a 17.9 K%. The power just hasn’t been there yet (no HRs).
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 17.1% | 8.3% | Road | 15.5% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 8.0% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 24.2% | 7.2% | Home | 26.0% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 12.0% |
| Doug Fister | Astros | L2 Years | 14.8% | 4.4% | Home | 13.1% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 9.5% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 24.6% | 7.9% | Road | 20.8% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 4.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | L2 Years | 23.2% | 6.1% | Home | 21.3% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 13.0% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.9% | 5.5% | Home | 16.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 7.1% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | L2 Years | 17.1% | 6.2% | Road | 18.1% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Raisel Iglesias | Reds | L2 Years | 26.1% | 6.8% | Road | 29.3% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 4.1% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 20.0% | 9.1% | Road | 21.0% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 16.0% |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | L2 Years | 16.0% | 16.0% | Home | L14 Days | 16.0% | 16.0% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | Home | 29.6% | 12.0% | RH | 23.2% | 9.2% | L7Days | 22.4% | 6.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 27.9% | 11.5% | LH | 23.2% | 7.1% | L7Days | 23.3% | 7.3% |
| Royals | Road | 19.8% | 4.5% | RH | 21.4% | 6.5% | L7Days | 21.2% | 7.1% |
| Astros | Home | 28.7% | 12.2% | RH | 28.1% | 9.0% | L7Days | 28.3% | 10.1% |
| Reds | Road | 22.9% | 8.6% | RH | 22.3% | 7.4% | L7Days | 17.6% | 10.6% |
| Yankees | Road | 19.3% | 10.0% | RH | 17.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 18.7% | 8.6% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 24.0% | 10.4% | RH | 27.6% | 10.1% | L7Days | 24.0% | 10.4% |
| Cubs | Home | 17.7% | 21.5% | RH | 20.5% | 15.4% | L7Days | 18.3% | 16.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 16.7% | 2.8% | LH | 17.9% | 5.1% | L7Days | 17.6% | 4.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 15.1% | 9.6% | RH | 21.2% | 5.8% | L7Days | 21.4% | 6.2% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 28.1% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 2016 | 26.9% | 10.4% | 8.0% | Road | 29.9% | 14.3% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 20.0% | -15.4% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 26.5% | 10.7% | 5.2% | 2016 | 27.0% | 12.0% | 5.4% | Home | 26.1% | 18.6% | 2.0% | L14 Days | 12.9% | 100.0% | -25.8% |
| Doug Fister | Astros | L2 Years | 27.5% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 2016 | 29.5% | 12.0% | 12.4% | Home | 28.6% | 10.3% | 15.8% | L14 Days | 46.2% | 50.0% | 38.5% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 32.7% | 12.3% | 17.5% | 2016 | 35.2% | 17.2% | 20.6% | Road | 35.3% | 11.9% | 18.8% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 0.0% | 5.9% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | L2 Years | 31.7% | 11.9% | 14.7% | 2016 | 32.9% | 12.8% | 14.2% | Home | 36.4% | 15.3% | 16.5% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 0.0% | 7.1% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 24.0% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 2016 | 21.8% | 14.3% | -2.6% | Home | 24.1% | 0.0% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 32.6% | 10.0% | 9.3% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | L2 Years | 29.9% | 7.6% | 11.3% | 2016 | 28.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | Road | 28.8% | 7.5% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 25.0% | 28.6% |
| Raisel Iglesias | Reds | L2 Years | 25.8% | 12.9% | 9.0% | 2016 | 25.8% | 13.9% | 8.2% | Road | 25.2% | 21.4% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 7.1% | 14.3% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 34.6% | 8.1% | 20.6% | 2016 | 35.0% | 7.3% | 19.8% | Road | 31.7% | 5.8% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 0.0% | 23.5% |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | L2 Years | 23.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2016 | Home | L14 Days | 23.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | Home | 20.0% | 4.5% | -11.7% | RH | 25.0% | 5.8% | -0.6% | L7Days | 27.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 37.5% | 20.0% | 18.1% | LH | 31.6% | 15.4% | 13.2% | L7Days | 38.0% | 22.0% | 19.3% |
| Royals | Road | 20.2% | 9.7% | -1.2% | RH | 21.8% | 7.0% | -2.2% | L7Days | 21.6% | 12.5% | -2.5% |
| Astros | Home | 33.8% | 8.7% | 23.5% | RH | 34.7% | 20.0% | 17.6% | L7Days | 35.2% | 16.7% | 19.5% |
| Reds | Road | 31.3% | 7.7% | 10.5% | RH | 27.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | L7Days | 29.9% | 15.9% | 10.4% |
| Yankees | Road | 26.7% | 12.1% | 8.6% | RH | 29.7% | 23.3% | 15.2% | L7Days | 30.4% | 15.9% | 13.4% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.9% | 12.5% | 12.8% | RH | 28.7% | 10.4% | 10.2% | L7Days | 29.9% | 12.5% | 12.8% |
| Cubs | Home | 26.1% | 10.0% | 10.9% | RH | 33.6% | 14.3% | 17.2% | L7Days | 25.8% | 9.1% | 10.1% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.2% | 6.3% | -3.7% | LH | 25.4% | 0.0% | 1.7% | L7Days | 25.1% | 3.1% | 6.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 35.9% | 15.0% | 18.9% | RH | 32.4% | 14.8% | 15.1% | L7Days | 32.7% | 14.9% | 14.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 19.5 K% – 9.3 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 16.2% | 7.1% | 2.28 | 40.0% | 15.2% | 2.63 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 24.4% | 13.3% | 1.83 | 24.0% | 17.1% | 1.40 |
| Doug Fister | HOU | 14.0% | 5.2% | 2.69 | 28.6% | 8.1% | 3.53 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 24.4% | 10.3% | 2.37 | 28.0% | 10.1% | 2.77 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 24.2% | 10.9% | 2.22 | 26.1% | 10.1% | 2.58 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 17.5% | 7.2% | 2.43 | 16.1% | 8.4% | 1.92 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 18.0% | 8.7% | 2.07 | 33.3% | 11.7% | 2.85 |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 26.3% | 11.7% | 2.25 | 24.5% | 10.3% | 2.38 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 21.8% | 9.0% | 2.42 | 12.0% | 9.3% | 1.29 |
| Ross Stripling | LOS | 16.0% | 9.0% | 1.78 |
We’re still using 2015 numbers a bit long until just about every pitcher has made a couple of starts, but also using this year’s stats in the “L30 Days” column. As mentioned, we’re showing just starting pitcher league averages in the header information now, which drops K% and SwStr% just slightly from the overall average that includes relievers.
Cole Hamels has had exactly 17 swinging strikes in each of his two starts, which begs the question how the hell he only struck out four Angels?
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.07 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.03 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 4.99 | 4.69 | -0.3 | 4.58 | -0.41 | 4.45 | -0.54 | 1.29 | 2.28 | 0.99 | 2.39 | 1.1 | 3.12 | 1.83 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 3.65 | 3.45 | -0.2 | 3.4 | -0.25 | 3.47 | -0.18 | 2.08 | 3.33 | 1.25 | 3.27 | 1.19 | 5.03 | 2.95 |
| Doug Fister | HOU | 4.19 | 4.47 | 0.28 | 4.46 | 0.27 | 4.55 | 0.36 | 5.4 | 3.07 | -2.33 | 2.69 | -2.71 | 4.66 | -0.74 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 4.28 | 3.61 | -0.67 | 3.7 | -0.58 | 4.51 | 0.23 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3.03 | 3.03 | 1.61 | 1.61 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 3.74 | 3.45 | -0.29 | 3.47 | -0.27 | 3.68 | -0.06 | 1.5 | 4.32 | 2.82 | 4.34 | 2.84 | 2.76 | 1.26 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 1.67 | 3.28 | 1.61 | 3.34 | 1.67 | 3.54 | 1.87 | 5.4 | 4.04 | -1.36 | 3.99 | -1.41 | 3.79 | -1.61 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 4.2 | 3.99 | -0.21 | 3.81 | -0.39 | 3.42 | -0.78 | 9 | 2.58 | -6.42 | 2.98 | -6.02 | 5.66 | -3.34 |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 4.15 | 3.26 | -0.89 | 3.28 | -0.87 | 3.55 | -0.6 | 2.31 | 3.53 | 1.22 | 3.61 | 1.3 | 2.83 | 0.52 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 3.52 | 4.05 | 0.53 | 4.03 | 0.51 | 3.53 | 0.01 | 3 | 6.65 | 3.65 | 6.34 | 3.34 | 4.76 | 1.76 |
| Ross Stripling | LOS | 1.23 | 6.04 | 4.81 | 5.52 | 4.29 | 3.81 | 2.58 |
Cole Hamels – I’m not going to get into the habit of remarking on a one or two game ERA gap, but this is pretty remarkable. He’s allowed a .207 BABIP with a 98.4 LOB% so far, but has allowed just one fly ball in each of his two starts (23 ground balls). He’s also allowed two HRs. Even though one of his HRs seemed to be a line drive because they both came in his first start, he has a 100 HR/FB. He currently has an 11.5 GB/FB despite just a career 1.23 rate. If this happens again, I assume there will be an article on Fangraphs.
Ian Kennedy – HRs were obviously the issue here (17.2 HR/FB).
Marcus Stroman only threw 27 innings last year.
Raisel Iglesias struggled with HRs last season (13.9 HR/FB) and stranded just 70.6% of runners, which isn’t an absurdly low number, but below average, especially for a buy with an above average K% and solid defense and contact authority numbers, leading to a decent BABIP (.286).
Robbie Ray – The HR thing, mentioned above, dropped his ERA/FIP well below his xFIP/SIERA.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 21.1 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 0.303 | 0.293 | -0.01 | 0.212 | 13.5% | 88.5% |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.255 | 0.294 | 0.039 | 0.209 | 12.0% | 84.5% |
| Doug Fister | HOU | 0.304 | 0.310 | 0.006 | 0.213 | 3.4% | 91.5% |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.330 | 0.301 | -0.029 | 0.228 | 7.8% | 85.2% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 0.234 | 0.288 | 0.054 | 0.245 | 3.9% | 86.1% |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.303 | 0.237 | -0.066 | 0.179 | 0.0% | 89.6% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 0.327 | 0.337 | 0.01 | 0.218 | 7.0% | 87.9% |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 0.259 | 0.286 | 0.027 | 0.21 | 7.6% | 86.7% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.305 | 0.311 | 0.006 | 0.222 | 6.5% | 87.0% |
| Ross Stripling | LOS | 0.228 |
Don’t pay much attention to this year’s Team BABIP yet. The sample is way too small. Pitcher numbers are still from 2015.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we normally rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
We’re still just talking a bit more about the pitchers you might be considering today in relation to their price tags in no particular order until we get a bit more information about 2016.
Although we have an overall strong batch of pitchers today, some of them are not in such great spots, so we’re still left considering some we normally might not in these situations.
Chris Tillman – I’m having great difficulty getting these words out and want you to understand that two short starts have not changed my mind about him, but they do exhibit a new potential upside at one of the cheapest rates on the board under more favorable conditions than most pitchers face tonight. When you’re calling facing the Rangers in Texas one of the more favorable conditions on any given night, you might be in trouble.
Cole Hamels is by far the top pitcher on the board and likely again very accurately priced for his expected range of outcomes (as he usually is). Add to that that he’s facing a team that’s been crushing the ball early (though not so much against LHP) and you run into quite the dilemma here. You can potentially capitalize on fading the chalk, but may not have any more reliable choices in non-GPP formats.
Ian Kennedy could be the most interesting pitcher tonight. I’m expecting HRs, but as long as he doesn’t walk anyone, the strikeouts should be more valuable. Even a 10K, 4 HR, 5 or 6 ER performance has value, but he’s not exactly cheap.
Jason Hammel would be a much easier pick tonight if I was any confident that he was even going to be allowed 100 pitches. If they’re still intent on keeping him around 90, we’re losing about 15% of his overall value here at a not significantly reduced cost.
Marcus Stroman is not in a good spot and I’d probably strongly lean to a fade on any other night. I’m starting to move towards the camp (I really don’t even know that a camp has already been set up though) that he might be over-valued for daily fantasy if he’s going to perform like a right handed Brett Anderson priced like Dallas Keuchel or Tyson Ross in a much tougher division and home park. But if you fade Hamels, where are you going to go?
Ross Stripling is likely to have a full bandwagon tonight due to the excruciating circumstances I’ve been mentioning in this section. He’s cheap and people should still rightfully be incredibly skeptical of Tillman. He’s in a decent spot getting the Diamondbacks outside Arizona. It’s not even the wrong move if you understand he’ll probably be highly owned (on two pitcher sites at least) and he’s not really some greatly under-valued sleeper pick as much as a potential necessity with a mediocre expectation tonight.
Ok, so I think I want to revisit Nathan Eovaldi at this point, which might be kind of crazy, but after coming away with little confidence in anything he might meet the upside without having that much more risk than most of these other pitchers. I’m not looking to pay $9.1K for him on FanDuel, but he’s right in the middle on DraftKings ($7.3K) and maybe we can capitalize on Toronto not exactly tearing up RHP yet. Thoughts?
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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