Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, April 23rd
Cozy little eight game slate to start your week with the Atlanta/Cincinnati game off the main board. We missed a no-hitter and another great start from my 2018 pitcher crush (Patrick Corbin) over the weekend, but catch a few interesting arms on Monday night, including a highly touted rookie making his first career start.
Everything below is entirely comprised of 2018 stats where it’s supposed to be, unless multi-year stats are being used. The exceptions are DRA, which Baseball Prospectus has not calculated for 2018 yet and Statcast Home/Away xwOBA (actually all Home/Away), which combines last season with this one.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Mitchell | Padres | -1.3 | 5.71 | 4.9 | 51.7% | 1.33 | 5.52 | 6.45 | Rockies | 73 | 51 | 91 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 27 | 3.38 | 6.1 | 46.6% | 0.99 | 3.25 | 3.39 | Orioles | 49 | 65 | 89 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 16.9 | 4.52 | 5.7 | 51.3% | 1.33 | 4.14 | 4.69 | Padres | 75 | 84 | 46 |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 3.2 | 4.75 | 5.4 | 40.1% | 0.93 | 4.61 | 3.63 | Nationals | 108 | 110 | 81 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | -23.8 | 3.91 | 6.0 | 44.9% | 0.87 | 3.48 | 2.31 | Angels | 129 | 112 | 55 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | -16.3 | 4.17 | 5.9 | 46.8% | 0.93 | 4.28 | 3.76 | Giants | 101 | 80 | 84 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 0.1 | 4.59 | 5.4 | 33.8% | 1.03 | 5.44 | 4.88 | Yankees | 125 | 112 | 143 |
| Jarlin Garcia | Marlins | -1.6 | 4.57 | 5.5 | 42.9% | 0.90 | 5.43 | 6.48 | Dodgers | 104 | 83 | 123 |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 5.1 | 4.12 | 5.7 | 43.0% | 0.99 | 4.05 | 3.98 | Indians | 82 | 83 | 108 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 1.4 | 3.64 | 6.2 | 47.7% | 1.03 | 2.87 | 4.60 | Twins | 106 | 93 | 69 |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | -7.1 | 4.71 | 5.7 | 37.7% | 1.15 | 5.01 | 4.96 | Athletics | 124 | 110 | 136 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | -5.2 | 5.08 | 5.7 | 38.0% | 0.98 | 5.17 | 7.09 | Mariners | 117 | 96 | 96 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 10.5 | 4.31 | 5.5 | 40.6% | 1.01 | 4.81 | 4.37 | Reds | 82 | 64 | 59 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 4.11 | 6.0 | 53.4% | 0.98 | 4.14 | 4.00 | White Sox | 77 | 94 | 69 | |
| Sal Romano | Reds | -2.5 | 4.88 | 5.4 | 50.9% | 1.01 | 5.04 | 5.16 | Braves | 109 | 107 | 93 |
| Trevor Cahill | Athletics | 0.9 | 4.16 | 5.3 | 56.2% | 1.15 | 4.57 | 2.47 | Rangers | 85 | 85 | 98 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 5.7 | 4.32 | 5.2 | 43.2% | 0.87 | 4.26 | 4.04 | Astros | 84 | 116 | 135 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 0.1 | 4.47 | #DIV/0! | 66.7% | 0.90 | 3.99 | Marlins | 57 | 68 | 74 |
Carlos Carrasco dominated the Twins in Puerto Rico last week (7 IP – 3 H – 0 R – 1 BB – 7 K – 25 BF) and threw a complete game three hitter prior to that. The only concern one might have is some sort of letdown, but he’s the top raw overall arm on the board. He’s in a pretty great spot too. The power potential in Baltimore is always somewhat of a concern, but the home team has just a 6.5 HR/FB in home games this year. They have a 26.3 K% vs RHP.
Gerrit Cole went seven innings for the fourth straight start to open the season, but struck out just five Mariners (his first single digit effort) despite throwing his highest rate of sliders (30%) in a start this season. Seattle was, by far, the best offense he’s faced. He returns home to one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball, but may have to face an even tougher offense (the Angels 112 wRC+, 18.1 K% vs RHP). They were shut down by the Red Sox (understandable) and the Giants (surprising) last week (55 wRC+, 24.4 K%). Their preponderance of right-handed batters favors a pitcher with significant platoon issues in his past (though not this year).
Gio Gonzalez is likely to drive you nuts tonight. He hasn’t completed six innings since his first start, but hasn’t allowed more than two ERs in a start. He’s missing bats and not walking too many, but getting BABIP’d a bit. There’s really nothing that justifies it. The Giants lean predominantly right-handed now, but haven’t been very good against LHP and are striking out a lot more these days (25.8% vs LHP, 28.5% last seven days).
Masahiro Tanaka has allowed 12 ERs over his last 10 innings with three HRs. One of those was in Boston, but the other at home against the Marlins. He continues to be a two true outcome pitcher (28 of 94 batters have struck out or homered), which does give him some upside against a somewhat average Minnesota offense. They may have more power than a lot of people realize, but will strike out some too.
Trevor Cahill struck out eight of 26 White Sox in his first start for his new/old team. This is interesting, because he surprisingly missed a lot of bats at the beginning of last season before being injured. He had a 15.2 SwStr% and 68.8 GB% in that start. He’s in a dangerous park tonight, but that really just makes it an average matchup. The Texas offense was well over-rated last season and has been generally starting a lot of rookies not named Calhoun this season. They will still hit the ball hard when they do make contact (24.3 Hard-Soft% vs RHP, 35.9 Hard-Soft% last seven days), but they will strike out (24.3% vs RHP). In fact, it’s a bit surprising how low that strikeout rate is compared to last season.
Walker Buehler makes not his major league debut, but his first major league start tonight. The 2015 first round pick is the 27th overall prospect in baseball (Fangraphs) this year with a 55 Future Value grade attached. He’s struck out 16 of 54 batters faced in three AAA starts this season with a 59.4 GB%. He’s had a 25+ K% and 50+ GB% at every stop of his professional career. The concern is for his control, which hasn’t really been that bad in the minors. One I’d have today, specifically, is that he hasn’t faced more than 20 batters in a game yet and we all know how the Dodgers like to get guys not names Kershaw out of there after twice through the order. That said, he has a tremendous matchup at home with the Marlins. Best on the board. They combine strikeouts (25% vs RHP) with weak contact (3.1 Hard-Soft% vs RHP).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.299 BABIP – 72.1 LOB% – 14.2 HR/FB)
Chad Bettis (.217 – 95.2% – 8.0) is not a bat misser. The only support for his extremely low BABIP is a low line drive rate. His park neutral Statcast numbers support an xwOBA much higher (and therefor likely much higher at Coors), though his home xwOBA since last year is strong. The other thing to note is how terrible the San Diego Hosmers have been. Even the Coors boost only seems to make them an average offense (24.5 K-BB% on the road, 27.7 K% vs RHP, 34.1 K% over the last week). That last one almost put me into a coma, but a look at the schedule shows they spent the last two series facing some high strikeout pitchers vs LA (NL) and in Arizona. Still…that’s pretty absurd.
Chris Stratton (.231_ – 69.6% – 0) did it again last start (7 IP – 6 H – 1 R – 0 BB – 8 K – 26 BF in Arizona). This happens every so often. In 14 starts now since the start of last season, he’s gone at least six innings with seven or more strikeouts and a total of three runs allowed combined. He’s failed to strike out more than four in any of his other 10 starts, going six innings only four more times. He’s in a sweet spot against a hurting Washington offense in San Francisco, but they have the highest walk rate on the board without a high strikeout one. He’s doing this with a great zone contact rate, but enormous line drive one and has a .371 xwOBA at home since last season (a board high 55 points higher than actual), meaning the park often likely saves his ass.
Jake Odorizzi (.250 – 89.7% – 15.4) allowed three of his four HRs in Puerto Rico to the Cleveland offense last time out. With a start in Yankee Stadium tonight, you immediately dismiss this fly ball prone pitcher with reverse platoon tendencies and then just check the stats to confirm. The matchups at Coors are better for pitchers. The Yankees have been murdering the baseball (18.2 HR/FB last seven days) and take tons of walks.
Jarlin Garcia (.096 – 96.2% – 5.3) gained instant recognition when he entered an extra-inning game against the Cubs the first week of the season and proceeded to throw six one-hit innings, striking out six of the 20 batters he’s faced. He’s since allowed two runs in 15 innings, but struck out just seven of 57 batters faced, while walking nine. The 25 year old was below average as a reliever last year and can’t be found on any prospect lists. The reckoning is coming.
Bryan Mitchell (.273 – 76.7% – 14.3) is pitching in Colorado tonight. God only knows how he’s generating a well below .300 BABIP with that profile or stranding so many runners. Easy to see where all the money is going tonight. His Statcast numbers are interesting. His peripherals are so bad, he’s putting up a .400 xwOBA with the second best contact profile on the board. It’s a bit disappointing when DFS is so easy tonight, but you can’t completely fade the Rockies.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Kevin Gausman is probably better than his ERA and has not allowed more than two ERs since his first start, going six innings in each of his last two. Strikeouts are down, but his SwStr% is up, so that’s not a concern. He has allowed six HRs in four starts and that is a concern at home against a strong lineup, who are starting to pick it up after a slow start (14.5 HR/FB vs RHP, 16.4 HR/FB last seven days). He has allowed some loud contact, dwarfed only by “(player-popup #mike-leake)Mike Leake”:/players/mike-leake-11000’s ridiculous Statcast numbers today. The cost on DraftKings ($5.8K) may be a bit out of line though.
Tyler Skaggs has shown some impressive bat missing skills thus far, but also has a tendency towards hard contact. This is a very dangerous matchup despite the extreme negative overall run environment. Another surprise is Houston’s elevated strikeout rate against southpaws early on, which allows him to project surprisingly well against other top strikeout arms today in that category alone. I just don’t know that I can fully buy into that yet. I think I’d rather take shots with Cahill or even Buehler, despite the workload expectancy, in his price range.
Matt Moore may have the worst matchup on the board. The A’s mash and get a giant park upgrade tonight. I still don’t understand why the Rangers thought this was a good idea, but he does have the lowest rate of barrels on the board (3.1%).
Miguel Gonzalez and Mike Leake projects to be a very hard hitting matchup. Would you just look at that Statcast board! Each pitcher has a .463 xwOBA.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Mitchell | Padres | L2 Yrs | 9.9% | 11.9% | 7.6% | 12.4% | Season | 7.5% | 18.3% | 14.3% | 25.0% | Road | 8.7% | 13.0% | 5.6% | 7.9% | L14Days | 13.6% | 18.2% | 12.5% | 41.4% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Yrs | 26.7% | 5.6% | 13.4% | 13.0% | Season | 20.6% | 3.9% | 11.5% | 3.9% | Road | 28.2% | 5.6% | 9.8% | 7.6% | L14Days | 23.2% | 5.4% | 7.7% | -2.5% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 16.2% | 7.3% | 13.5% | 13.0% | Season | 15.5% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 16.9% | Home | 15.0% | 4.1% | 14.7% | 7.6% | L14Days | 15.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 10.3% |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | L2 Yrs | 19.4% | 10.2% | 6.7% | 11.0% | Season | 20.7% | 7.6% | 26.1% | Home | 16.6% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 13.3% | L14Days | 24.0% | 6.0% | 11.4% | ||
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | L2 Yrs | 23.0% | 6.6% | 13.0% | 8.0% | Season | 39.8% | 5.8% | 12.0% | 12.7% | Home | 24.7% | 5.8% | 13.4% | 5.2% | L14Days | 36.5% | 5.8% | 14.3% | 20.7% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 22.7% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 12.0% | Season | 25.8% | 9.3% | 5.0% | 19.1% | Road | 22.2% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.1% | L14Days | 24.5% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 12.5% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | L2 Yrs | 21.0% | 8.8% | 14.2% | 18.5% | Season | 21.1% | 12.2% | 15.4% | 8.3% | Road | 20.2% | 11.5% | 12.2% | 14.3% | L14Days | 21.3% | 12.8% | 23.1% | 12.9% |
| Jarlin Garcia | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 18.2% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 9.3% | Season | 16.9% | 14.3% | 5.3% | 11.3% | Road | 15.5% | 10.1% | 14.6% | 3.7% | L14Days | 12.8% | 18.0% | ||
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 22.3% | 7.4% | 15.6% | 13.6% | Season | 19.8% | 6.3% | 24.0% | 15.7% | Home | 24.5% | 9.3% | 19.8% | 15.6% | L14Days | 20.8% | 5.7% | 20.0% | 10.2% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 23.2% | 4.8% | 16.8% | 14.2% | Season | 24.5% | 4.3% | 20.0% | 18.2% | Home | 29.1% | 4.2% | 19.8% | 10.3% | L14Days | 16.3% | 8.2% | 27.3% | 25.0% |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 19.5% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 17.6% | Season | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 27.7% | Home | 18.8% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 18.6% | L14Days | 15.4% | 9.6% | 18.4% | |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 15.2% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 13.9% | Season | 7.6% | 9.1% | 22.2% | 20.0% | Home | 16.0% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 17.5% | L14Days | 2.4% | 9.8% | 14.3% | 22.2% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Yrs | 21.4% | 7.9% | 12.3% | 11.1% | Season | 28.9% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 13.2% | Road | 19.7% | 8.7% | 13.3% | 12.4% | L14Days | 23.9% | 13.0% | 6.9% | |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 16.5% | 4.6% | 13.4% | 16.1% | Season | 14.7% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 38.1% | Road | 15.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 21.6% | L14Days | 21.2% | 5.8% | 12.5% | 40.6% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | L2 Yrs | 17.6% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 8.8% | Season | 11.8% | 11.8% | 16.0% | Home | 16.9% | 12.0% | 17.0% | 18.8% | L14Days | 18.2% | 13.6% | 18.2% | 3.4% | |
| Trevor Cahill | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 23.5% | 12.0% | 22.5% | 9.0% | Season | 30.8% | 7.7% | 43.7% | Road | 21.7% | 13.8% | 30.8% | 9.8% | L14Days | 30.8% | 7.7% | 43.7% | ||
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Yrs | 21.8% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 15.2% | Season | 23.1% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 38.8% | Road | 24.6% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 14.2% | L14Days | 22.9% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 56.3% |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 27.3% | 18.2% | 50.0% | Season | Home | 25.0% | 18.8% | 100.0% | L14Days |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies | Home | 25.4% | 9.6% | 17.5% | 3.2% | RH | 23.2% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 2.0% | L7Days | 20.3% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 3.9% |
| Orioles | Home | 22.9% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | RH | 26.3% | 7.3% | 9.5% | 7.7% | L7Days | 23.1% | 8.0% | 14.1% | 16.6% |
| Padres | Road | 29.6% | 5.1% | 14.3% | 5.7% | RH | 27.7% | 8.1% | 12.7% | 13.2% | L7Days | 34.1% | 6.7% | 10.5% | 20.0% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.4% | 11.7% | 16.3% | 11.5% | RH | 20.8% | 11.6% | 13.8% | 11.9% | L7Days | 24.6% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 8.8% |
| Angels | Road | 14.3% | 5.3% | 11.0% | 21.3% | RH | 18.1% | 5.9% | 12.6% | 20.3% | L7Days | 24.4% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 8.8% |
| Giants | Home | 25.1% | 7.3% | 16.1% | 20.5% | LH | 25.8% | 8.1% | 15.0% | 18.9% | L7Days | 28.5% | 6.3% | 16.1% | 21.2% |
| Yankees | Home | 21.8% | 12.9% | 15.3% | 15.5% | RH | 22.4% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 13.3% | L7Days | 21.2% | 13.0% | 18.2% | 21.2% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.5% | 7.7% | 11.8% | 4.9% | LH | 23.2% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 13.3% | L7Days | 24.2% | 10.9% | 14.9% | 19.9% |
| Indians | Road | 23.7% | 8.0% | 14.4% | 13.0% | RH | 23.9% | 7.4% | 14.5% | 18.4% | L7Days | 22.6% | 5.1% | 16.4% | 12.3% |
| Twins | Road | 24.1% | 8.0% | 14.8% | 17.7% | RH | 24.0% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 16.1% | L7Days | 24.1% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 19.2% |
| Athletics | Road | 23.5% | 7.4% | 21.5% | 22.0% | LH | 24.9% | 6.1% | 9.8% | 19.4% | L7Days | 23.2% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 30.5% |
| Mariners | Road | 18.5% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 18.8% | RH | 22.3% | 6.5% | 15.6% | 10.4% | L7Days | 23.9% | 4.7% | 14.6% | 15.7% |
| Reds | Home | 27.3% | 9.1% | 13.1% | 8.6% | RH | 23.7% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 8.9% | L7Days | 19.5% | 8.1% | 0.0% | 21.9% |
| White Sox | Home | 24.4% | 10.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | RH | 24.0% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 15.8% | L7Days | 23.3% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 18.2% |
| Braves | Road | 19.5% | 10.9% | 12.5% | 2.7% | RH | 20.5% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 8.3% | L7Days | 21.6% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 19.5% |
| Rangers | Home | 23.5% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 24.2% | RH | 24.3% | 8.6% | 13.0% | 24.3% | L7Days | 21.9% | 9.4% | 12.8% | 35.9% |
| Astros | Home | 25.2% | 8.8% | 14.8% | 4.7% | LH | 25.4% | 8.8% | 14.9% | 10.5% | L7Days | 22.0% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 4.7% |
| Marlins | Road | 28.3% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 4.0% | RH | 25.0% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 3.1% | L7Days | 26.9% | 7.8% | 11.4% | 6.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Mitchell | Padres | 7.5% | 3.6% | 2.08 | 7.5% | 3.6% | 2.08 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 20.6% | 11.4% | 1.81 | 20.6% | 11.4% | 1.81 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.82 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.82 |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 20.7% | 8.8% | 2.35 | 20.7% | 8.8% | 2.35 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 39.8% | 15.3% | 2.60 | 39.8% | 15.3% | 2.60 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 25.8% | 10.6% | 2.43 | 25.8% | 10.6% | 2.43 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 21.1% | 10.4% | 2.03 | 21.1% | 10.4% | 2.03 |
| Jarlin Garcia | Marlins | 16.9% | 8.4% | 2.01 | 16.9% | 8.4% | 2.01 |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 19.8% | 12.1% | 1.64 | 19.8% | 12.1% | 1.64 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 24.5% | 12.7% | 1.93 | 24.5% | 12.7% | 1.93 |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | 16.5% | 8.7% | 1.90 | 16.5% | 8.7% | 1.90 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | 7.6% | 7.4% | 1.03 | 7.6% | 7.4% | 1.03 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 28.9% | 8.6% | 3.36 | 28.9% | 8.6% | 3.36 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 14.7% | 7.8% | 1.88 | 14.7% | 7.8% | 1.88 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 11.8% | 5.8% | 2.03 | 11.8% | 5.8% | 2.03 |
| Trevor Cahill | Athletics | 30.8% | 15.2% | 2.03 | 30.8% | 15.2% | 2.03 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 23.1% | 12.1% | 1.91 | 23.1% | 12.1% | 1.91 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers |
I’m trying to figure out why I like Carlos Carrasco more than the numbers and finally see it here. He’s in the middle of the board in K%, though closer to the top in SwStr%. It’s his lowest SwStr% since 2013, but it’s still early and near his career rate. There’s some positive potential in his K%.
Another interesting note is that all three pitchers in the 12 SwStr% range have issues with hard contact in dangerous spots tonight.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Mitchell | Padres | 5.03 | 7.02 | 1.99 | 5.03 | 1.24 | 6.50 | 1.47 | 6.99 | 1.96 | 5.03 | 7.03 | 2.00 | 6.27 | 1.24 | 6.50 | 1.47 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 2.60 | 3.64 | 1.04 | 2.60 | 0.90 | 3.47 | 0.87 | 3.40 | 0.80 | 2.60 | 3.64 | 1.04 | 3.5 | 0.90 | 3.47 | 0.87 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 1.44 | 5.05 | 3.61 | 1.44 | 3.35 | 4.31 | 2.87 | 6.12 | 4.68 | 1.44 | 5.05 | 3.61 | 4.79 | 3.35 | 4.31 | 2.87 |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 2.22 | 4.21 | 1.99 | 2.22 | 1.92 | 2.57 | 0.35 | 4.47 | 2.25 | 2.22 | 4.21 | 1.99 | 4.14 | 1.92 | 2.57 | 0.35 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 0.96 | 2.04 | 1.08 | 0.96 | 1.37 | 2.36 | 1.40 | 4.12 | 3.16 | 0.96 | 2.04 | 1.08 | 2.33 | 1.37 | 2.36 | 1.40 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 2.49 | 3.67 | 1.18 | 2.49 | 1.00 | 2.69 | 0.20 | 3.29 | 0.80 | 2.49 | 3.67 | 1.18 | 3.49 | 1.00 | 2.69 | 0.20 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 3.38 | 4.77 | 1.39 | 3.38 | 1.39 | 5.35 | 1.97 | 4.84 | 1.46 | 3.38 | 4.78 | 1.40 | 4.77 | 1.39 | 5.35 | 1.97 |
| Jarlin Garcia | Marlins | 0.86 | 5.17 | 4.31 | 0.86 | 4.00 | 4.10 | 3.24 | 5.68 | 4.82 | 0.86 | 5.17 | 4.31 | 4.86 | 4.00 | 4.10 | 3.24 |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 5.57 | 4.10 | -1.47 | 5.57 | -1.42 | 6.05 | 0.48 | 4.90 | -0.67 | 5.57 | 4.10 | -1.47 | 4.15 | -1.42 | 6.05 | 0.48 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 6.45 | 3.31 | -3.14 | 6.45 | -2.98 | 4.67 | -1.78 | 3.90 | -2.55 | 6.45 | 3.31 | -3.14 | 3.47 | -2.98 | 4.67 | -1.78 |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | 5.59 | 4.98 | -0.61 | 5.59 | -0.24 | 3.97 | -1.62 | 7.08 | 1.49 | 5.59 | 4.99 | -0.60 | 5.35 | -0.24 | 3.97 | -1.62 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | 12.41 | 5.99 | -6.42 | 12.41 | -6.39 | 8.01 | -4.40 | 5.25 | -7.16 | 12.41 | 6.00 | -6.41 | 6.02 | -6.39 | 8.01 | -4.40 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 2.53 | 3.47 | 0.94 | 2.53 | 0.94 | 3.33 | 0.80 | 5.88 | 3.35 | 2.53 | 3.47 | 0.94 | 3.47 | 0.94 | 3.33 | 0.80 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 4.50 | 5.19 | 0.69 | 4.50 | 0.74 | 4.90 | 0.40 | 4.22 | -0.28 | 4.50 | 5.19 | 0.69 | 5.24 | 0.74 | 4.90 | 0.40 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 5.75 | 5.61 | -0.14 | 5.75 | -0.19 | 6.25 | 0.50 | 5.99 | 0.24 | 5.75 | 5.62 | -0.13 | 5.56 | -0.19 | 6.25 | 0.50 |
| Trevor Cahill | Athletics | 0.00 | 2.47 | 2.47 | 0.00 | 2.37 | 1.72 | 1.72 | 4.31 | 4.31 | 0.00 | 2.47 | 2.47 | 2.37 | 2.37 | 1.72 | 1.72 |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 3.98 | 3.72 | -0.26 | 3.98 | -0.29 | 2.90 | -1.08 | 4.83 | 0.85 | 3.98 | 3.72 | -0.26 | 3.69 | -0.29 | 2.90 | -1.08 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 5.67 |
Carlos Carrasco has a .203 BABIP.
Gerrit Cole has a .231 BABIP and a perfect strand rate.
Gio Gonzalez has a .371 BABIP, but 82.3 LOB% with just one long ball allowed (5.0 HR/FB). These things should all regress significantly.
Masahiro Tanaka has a 54.6 LOB% with a 20 HR/FB. The latter could stick with his tendencies and park.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Mitchell | Padres | 0.301 | 0.273 | -0.028 | 51.5% | 27.3% | 7.1% | 92.0% | 51.7% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 0.234 | 0.203 | -0.031 | 46.1% | 19.7% | 7.7% | 90.5% | 27.9% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 0.299 | 0.217 | -0.082 | 47.1% | 16.2% | 8.0% | 88.9% | 33.8% |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 0.271 | 0.231 | -0.040 | 32.8% | 28.1% | 4.0% | 82.9% | 38.8% |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 0.275 | 0.231 | -0.044 | 30.2% | 22.6% | 20.0% | 79.8% | 36.6% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 0.282 | 0.371 | 0.089 | 46.0% | 22.2% | 5.0% | 81.7% | 31.7% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 0.293 | 0.250 | -0.043 | 32.2% | 23.7% | 19.2% | 85.1% | 45.8% |
| Jarlin Garcia | Marlins | 0.306 | 0.096 | -0.210 | 54.7% | 9.4% | 0.0% | 85.7% | 37.4% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 0.329 | 0.328 | -0.001 | 37.7% | 26.1% | 16.0% | 83.0% | 41.4% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 0.297 | 0.311 | 0.014 | 44.6% | 16.9% | 20.0% | 87.5% | 28.6% |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | 0.328 | 0.359 | 0.031 | 36.9% | 23.1% | 7.7% | 90.4% | 34.6% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | 0.320 | 0.392 | 0.072 | 38.2% | 29.1% | 0.0% | 88.5% | 40.0% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 0.284 | 0.308 | 0.024 | 47.2% | 17.0% | 5.3% | 85.7% | 36.6% |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 0.289 | 0.260 | -0.029 | 39.5% | 19.7% | 3.2% | 91.0% | 33.0% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 0.282 | 0.254 | -0.028 | 52.9% | 11.4% | 16.0% | 93.6% | 36.0% |
| Trevor Cahill | Athletics | 0.291 | 0.313 | 0.022 | 68.8% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 88.0% | 29.5% |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 0.288 | 0.328 | 0.040 | 49.2% | 19.7% | 0.0% | 78.5% | 29.8% |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 0.297 |
Carlos Carrasco has seen a sharp decline in his Z-Contact% (a small concern right now), but is getting a lot of swings outside of it with the fewest swings of his career inside of it, which helps a lot. What also helps a lot is that Cleveland defense, who seem to think they’re the 2016 Cubs.
Gerrit Cole doesn’t give a (bleep) about ground balls anymore. The Astros emphasize strikeouts and in order to further encourage this, they’ve placed a garbage defense behind their pitchers (though they generate such great contact that the team BABIP is still low). Sure, it leads to the occasional home run (he’s allowed three), but he’s already induced four infield flies (23 last year), which gives him another free out per start on top of the strikeouts.
Gio Gonzalez has absolutely nothing in his profile to justify the enormous BABIP. That’s great news. He should return to his normally frustrating self, which he may already appear to be because he’s stranding a lot of those runners. A lower BABIP should at least allow him to complete six innings once in a while.
Masahiro Tanaka has a BABIP above .300 for the first time in his career last season. He has a .280 career rate and a strong profile so far this season.
StatCast Chart
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Mitchell | Padres | 0.400 | -0.034 | 0.375 | -0.052 | 0.400 | -0.034 | -0.5 | 87.1 | 4.4 | 27.9 | 68 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 0.264 | -0.045 | 0.280 | -0.020 | 0.264 | -0.045 | -0.2 | 86.4 | 3.9 | 27.3 | 77 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 0.361 | -0.081 | 0.304 | 0.004 | 0.361 | -0.081 | -0.8 | 87.8 | 8.5 | 42.3 | 71 |
| Chris Stratton | Giants | 0.320 | -0.090 | 0.371 | -0.055 | 0.320 | -0.090 | -0.3 | 89.6 | 6.2 | 32.3 | 65 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 0.253 | -0.033 | 0.300 | -0.009 | 0.253 | -0.033 | -0.6 | 88.6 | 7.3 | 40.0 | 55 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 0.303 | 0.011 | 0.288 | -0.012 | 0.303 | 0.011 | -1.1 | 87.7 | 6.3 | 31.7 | 63 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 0.327 | 0.002 | 0.313 | -0.019 | 0.327 | 0.002 | -1.4 | 87.8 | 8.3 | 36.7 | 60 |
| Jarlin Garcia | Marlins | 0.361 | -0.179 | 0.375 | -0.054 | 0.361 | -0.179 | -0.8 | 88.6 | 11.3 | 35.8 | 53 |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 0.363 | 0.022 | 0.352 | -0.003 | 0.363 | 0.022 | -0.7 | 91.2 | 10.0 | 44.3 | 70 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 0.332 | 0.010 | 0.309 | -0.016 | 0.332 | 0.010 | -1.3 | 89.4 | 7.6 | 40.9 | 66 |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | 0.355 | -0.004 | 0.360 | -0.031 | 0.355 | -0.004 | -1.2 | 89.2 | 3.1 | 38.5 | 65 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | 0.463 | 0.044 | 0.325 | -0.008 | 0.463 | 0.044 | -1.4 | 90.8 | 12.7 | 43.6 | 55 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 0.312 | -0.008 | 0.336 | 0.011 | 0.312 | -0.008 | -0.3 | 88.1 | 9.4 | 34.0 | 53 |
| Mike Leake | Mariners | 0.463 | -0.142 | 0.351 | -0.041 | 0.463 | -0.142 | -2.0 | 93.3 | 13.2 | 55.3 | 76 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 0.360 | -0.029 | 0.334 | 0.013 | 0.360 | -0.029 | -1.3 | 88.3 | 7.0 | 31.0 | 71 |
| Trevor Cahill | Athletics | 0.347 | 0.068 | |||||||||
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | 0.323 | -0.039 | 0.307 | 0.007 | 0.323 | -0.039 | -0.5 | 90.9 | 6.5 | 46.8 | 62 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 0.346 | 0.127 |
Carlos Carrasco as the top contact manager on the board goes to illustrate how far he’s come.
Gerrit Cole has the lowest xwOBA on the board. It’s pretty obscene and only needs to combine average contact management with an insane strikeout rate.
Masahiro Tanaka has allowed all these HRs, but his rate of barrels is not even that high.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Carlos Carrasco (1) is the second costliest pitcher on the board with the largest cost discrepancy ($2.1K), though a few others are close. A number of pitchers have pretty strong strikeout potential tonight, but he might have the most against a Baltimore offense that has little interest in making contact. His own swing and miss tendencies are not what they’ve been in the past, but that’s being compensated for with weak contact (although I’d rather see the strikeouts for our purposes).
Value Tier Two
Gerrit Cole (2) is the most expensive pitcher on the board by $900 or more on either site. Strikeout expectations are a bit too high (double digit efforts were against the Rangers twice and the Padres) and he’s facing the least strikeout prone offense on the board. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t have a reasonable expectation of seven innings with an above average strikeout rate. He’s not in a bad spot in a great park against a struggling offense.
Value Tier Three
Gio Gonzalez (3) costs $10.8K on DraftKings, which is difficult to like in any park for a pitcher who rarely goes deep into games and may be just a bit above average at his best. He is in a nice spot in a great park and may be able to get six innings in, making him useful on FanDuel for $2K less.
Masahiro Tanaka (4) is the same HR prone pitcher he was last year and that’s a risk, but he counters that with high strikeout upside. His $8.8 DK cost is too low. He’s $2K less than Gio there, though $300 more on FanDuel.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Trevor Cahill is a pretty quick leap after just one start against what’s expected to be a poor offense this season, but a reasonable cost makes up for a high risk park and it’s not a brand new look for him. He did this for a couple of months last year before his season was derailed by injury. He continued to abandon the sinker in his first start, which makes the enormous ground ball rate a bit surprising and maybe something he should look for a bit more in this park. He was able to generate a 55.6 GB% throwing it less than 40% of the time last year. I wanted to be able to present at least one lower cost option and the bottom of the board is just two much of a mess today.
Walker Buehler may not be available on FanDuel and that’s probably fine as it would be a surprise if he completed six innings. He costs $6.2K on DraftKings and may have the top matchup on the board. You can do 20 points of damage against the Marlins in a great park in just two times through the order. His minor league numbers have been elite in both strikeout and ground balls.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.