Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, May 7th
It seems as if we’ve had a near no-hitter or someone threatening the single game strikeout record nearly every day over the last week. I mean James Shields almost ruined no-hitters for everyone on Sunday. The good news is, if you need a break from all that, Monday’s slate might just be for you. It’s a quiet little seven game board with any real upside pitching end until you reach the latest start of the day on the west coast. Stephen Strasburg and even Tyson Ross may salvage things a bit, but it also begs the question about how to differentiate from the rest of the board.
Conditional formatting (shading) is still a work in progress. Everything should be going in the right direction now at least (best for pitcher to worst), although there seem to be some that are just a single color now. Columns are sortable by clicking on the headers if there’s any confusion.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | -2.2 | 4.85 | 4.1 | 49.2% | 0.96 | 4.19 | 4.26 | Astros | 119 | 102 | 70 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 2.3 | 3.65 | 6.4 | 61.1% | 0.96 | 3.44 | 3.60 | Athletics | 107 | 104 | 65 |
| Fernando Romero | Twins | -4.9 | 4.37 | 5.2 | 57.1% | 0.92 | 4.37 | Cardinals | 98 | 103 | 110 | |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | -6.4 | 4.92 | 4.9 | 43.7% | 1.01 | 5.28 | 6.32 | Mets | 87 | 102 | 48 |
| Jarlin Garcia | Marlins | -2 | 4.51 | 5.8 | 40.7% | 1.01 | 5.16 | 4.01 | Cubs | 92 | 85 | 57 |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | -4.6 | 3.93 | 6.3 | 42.8% | 0.97 | 3.70 | 5.37 | Phillies | 103 | 96 | 101 |
| John Gant | Cardinals | -2.3 | 4.72 | 4.2 | 46.5% | 0.92 | 4.26 | 4.38 | Twins | 102 | 98 | 111 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 8.1 | 3.91 | 6.1 | 48.7% | 1.01 | 4.00 | 3.59 | Marlins | 69 | 68 | 84 |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | 0.9 | 4.78 | 5.7 | 37.4% | 1.15 | 5.12 | 6.46 | Tigers | 89 | 101 | 90 |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | 4.26 | 6.3 | 48.7% | 1.15 | 4.08 | 3.03 | Rangers | 76 | 84 | 97 | |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | -10.8 | 3.30 | 6.2 | 42.7% | 0.91 | 3.13 | 2.76 | Padres | 101 | 87 | 95 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | -4.2 | 5.10 | 5.1 | 47.0% | 0.91 | 5.64 | 3.44 | Nationals | 105 | 109 | 121 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | -5.3 | 5.19 | 5.8 | 40.2% | 0.97 | 5.08 | 3.80 | Giants | 89 | 102 | 142 |
| P.J. Conlon | Mets | -0.2 | 1.01 | Reds | 93 | 103 | 91 |
Brett Anderson was differently effective in his first start back for the A’s. By differently, I mean that he had just a 47.4 GB%, but 13.8 SwStr%. His velocity, though it may have been adrenaline, was at it’s highest (93 mph) since his last start for Oakland, back in 2013 and he threw a ton of sliders (43.8%). He also threw a lot of them right down the pipe according to Baseball Savant’s Statcast Pitch Arsenal viz tool. He does face Houston tonight, and though the Astros haven’t been nearly as potent against LHP (16.7 K-BB%), I’d expect that to change going forward.
Dallas Keuchel has allowed eight HRs already, seven over his last four starts with a season three high to this Oakland team two starts back. He’s also gone at least seven innings in three of his last four with no more than three runs all season to anyone besides Oakland. Two of the home runs came on a sinker and slider right down the pipe, but the third was a pretty good changeup (also Savant’s pitch viz tool). In fact, nearly 10% of his pitchers were sinkers right down the pipe (9 of 98). He’s been leaving it up, instead of burying it below the knees a bit too often perhaps and that may be why his ground ball rate has dropped to 56% this season. It’s still a damn strong rate and helps him to a 5.2% Barrels/BBE (second best), leading to a .292 xwOBA, one of the best marks on the board. The A’s have the lowest walk rate split on the board tonight (6% vs LHP), but the highest Hard-Soft rate (25.9% vs LHP), which is no surprise.
Fernando Romero was one out away from six shutout innings against the Blue Jays in his MLB debut, but as they were in AAA in 21 innings (11.5%), walks were a problem (three of 23 batters faced). He did strike out five with an 11.5 SwStr% and generated a 57.1 GB%, which, sure, may be worth a shot on this board in a favorable park, even against a good offense. He missed all of 2015, but since returning to A ball in 2016, his strikeout rate has been at least 22% at every stop.
Kyle Hendricks is doing the things he usually does, beating his estimators with strong defense and tons of weak ground balls. His 84.8 mph aEV is best on the board, though his strikeouts and swinging strike rate are down a bit. That’s a problem for another day. Tonight, he’s got the top matchup on the board against the Marlins. They have one dangerous bat against RHP, a 17.7 K-BB% and board worst 8.5 Hard-Soft% split against RHP.
Michael Fulmer has increased his slider usage above 30% in each of his last three starts. Against the Pirates two starts back, that led to a season high nine strikeouts. He hasn’t struck out more than five in any other start this season. His velocity has ticked up over several starts though and he’s allowed a total of four runs over 19 innings in those three starts though. He may or may not have some upside in the strikeout rate (see below) and continues to be a quality contact manager (see below). While he pitches in the worst run environment on the board today, the offense he faces (84 wRC+, 25.9 K% vs RHP) may be worse than his own, though they do present some risk (14.7 HR/FB, 23.9 Hard-Soft% vs RHP).
Stephen Strasburg is facing the Padres (27.9 K% vs RHP) in San Diego tonight. He has double digit strikeouts in two of his last three starts and at least six innings every time he’s taken the mound this year.
Tyson Ross has failed to produce six innings in just one start this season, immediately following 127 pitch no-hit attempt and even in that start, he struck out seven, a total he’s reached in four of his last five starts. His 27 K% is behind only Strasburg on today’s board, over five points above anyone else. The Nationals are not an ideal matchup, even in San Diego, but the upside certainly plays here.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.299 BABIP – 72.1 LOB% – 14.2 HR/FB)
Jarlin Garcia (.151 – 95.2% – 6.1) keeps making me look silly, but I promise you…it’s coming. There’s absolutely nothing to support a continued good BABIP, never mind a .151 one. His 11.4% Barrels/BBE is worst on the board with a .378 xwOBA that’s third worst. He’s performing miracles right now. He is cheap (on DK) and the Cubs have struggled (against LHP and recently), but this offense is better than that and though the winds aren’t expected to matter tonight (see Kevin’s morning forecast), this could be the night. Wrigley is one of the most power friendly environments in baseball for right-handed bats (easily the most if the wind is blowing out to left).
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
John Gant has been up and down for the Braves and Cardinals the last few years. He has a 9.8 K-BB% through 70.1 major league innings and despite the favorable park, he does face an offense with quite a bit of left-handed power. He is nearly minimum priced though, so I suppose he would be a fourth tier arm (if there were one) and a reasonable punt if otherwise paying up for Strasburg.
P.J. Conlon is a guy. The Mets needed someone to replace deGrom for a start and it was his turn at AAA. His strikeout rate has been between 18.8% and 20.4% at every stop in the minors (A through AAA) since 2016, while good control has often made the 24 year-old, 13th round pick occasionally effective. He may be a bit over-matched, but the Reds don’t know a darn thing about him either and he is minimally priced on DraftKings.
Jeff Samardzija is in a high upside spot. The Phillies have the second highest strikeout split (27.1%) on the board with just an 11.6 Hard-Soft% against RHP that’s tied for second lowest. I’m sure he’ll be a popular pivot too, but it just hasn’t been there this season. His velocity has plummeted more than a mile per hour and has dropped in each of his three starts. He’s struck out just 12 with 10 walks in 13.2 innings (65 batters) and hasn’t eclipsed five innings in any start. His exit velocity is surprisingly strong (25.6% 95 mph aEV is best on the board), but he still has a .357 xwOBA, but he’s doing all this by throwing a sinker 44.5% of the time, which is not all that encouraging with a 31 GB%.
Zach Eflin struck out four of 20 Marlins in his 2018 debut. That brought his career strikeout rate in 133 major league innings up to 12.2%. The Giants are the hottest offense on the board (142 wRC+, 29.7 Hard-Soft% last seven days).
Homer Bailey is tied for the worst xwOBA (.405) and 95+ mph EV (45%) on the board. It’s actually right there in his name. Two of them in each of his last three starts.
Matt Moore has a game log from his last start that may make you blind. He tied for the worst xwOBA (.405) and 95+ mph EV (45%) on the board and this might be tough to hear…he may also have the worst park adjusted matchup. He’s facing the Tigers, who have a board low HR/FB split against RHP (6.9%), but they’re also playing in the only park that give a significant boost to run scoring overall and have just an 18.8 K% vs LHP. Detroit has made some bad pitchers look good recently and the outs may still be there, but maybe not the strikeouts and maybe not much of anything from him.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 14.0% | 7.7% | 16.7% | 14.4% | Season | 16.7% | 4.2% | 14.3% | 21.0% | Home | 15.5% | 6.0% | 13.6% | 22.0% | L14Days | 16.7% | 4.2% | 14.3% | 21.0% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 6.8% | 20.5% | 2.7% | Season | 18.3% | 6.7% | 22.9% | -3.8% | Road | 21.4% | 8.3% | 24.6% | -0.3% | L14Days | 14.8% | 45.5% | 4.3% | |
| Fernando Romero | Twins | L2 Yrs | 21.7% | 13.0% | 28.6% | Season | 21.7% | 13.0% | 28.6% | Road | L14Days | 21.7% | 13.0% | 28.6% | |||||||
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Yrs | 16.6% | 8.7% | 13.5% | 17.3% | Season | 13.1% | 7.1% | 14.8% | 24.8% | Home | 13.6% | 8.0% | 15.4% | 16.8% | L14Days | 4.4% | 4.4% | 23.5% | 14.6% |
| Jarlin Garcia | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 18.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 13.2% | Season | 18.6% | 10.5% | 6.1% | 21.6% | Road | 17.5% | 9.4% | 14.3% | 9.9% | L14Days | 21.3% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 37.1% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Yrs | 22.1% | 5.3% | 12.6% | 13.2% | Season | 18.5% | 15.4% | 5.9% | 25.6% | Road | 25.3% | 3.8% | 16.2% | 15.6% | L14Days | 18.2% | 13.6% | 10.0% | 23.3% |
| John Gant | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 18.3% | 10.3% | 14.3% | 9.9% | Season | 11.1% | -50.0% | Home | 16.3% | 7.0% | 10.0% | -12.2% | L14Days | 11.1% | -50.0% | ||||
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 22.1% | 6.5% | 13.2% | 3.8% | Season | 19.2% | 6.0% | 23.5% | 1.8% | Home | 20.3% | 8.1% | 19.5% | 10.0% | L14Days | 19.2% | 3.9% | 23.1% | 12.5% |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 19.0% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 18.9% | Season | 12.6% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 36.7% | Home | 18.3% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 20.6% | L14Days | 5.8% | 7.7% | 14.3% | 50.0% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 18.6% | 6.2% | 10.1% | 11.7% | Season | 18.2% | 6.1% | 10.3% | 11.0% | Road | 18.5% | 6.7% | 11.5% | 4.2% | L14Days | 29.2% | 6.3% | -10.0% | |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 29.7% | 7.0% | 11.8% | 4.8% | Season | 28.6% | 5.8% | 20.5% | 0.8% | Road | 29.5% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 0.8% | L14Days | 32.1% | 5.4% | 18.2% | -5.7% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | L2 Yrs | 19.7% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 17.4% | Season | 27.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 17.0% | Home | 11.9% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 18.0% | L14Days | 34.8% | 13.0% | 37.5% | |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 12.2% | 5.1% | 15.9% | 16.1% | Season | 20.0% | 12.5% | 12.5% | Home | 15.6% | 3.1% | 25.0% | 14.7% | L14Days | 20.0% | 12.5% | 12.5% | ||
| P.J. Conlon | Mets | L2 Yrs | Season | Road | L14Days |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | Road | 21.7% | 11.3% | 8.7% | 15.7% | LH | 24.2% | 7.7% | 13.3% | 14.0% | L7Days | 23.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 20.7% |
| Athletics | Home | 23.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 24.3% | LH | 24.2% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 25.9% | L7Days | 31.2% | 6.5% | 12.5% | 16.4% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.2% | 10.5% | 12.5% | 21.8% | RH | 23.0% | 9.6% | 15.6% | 18.9% | L7Days | 20.8% | 12.7% | 19.5% | 31.5% |
| Mets | Road | 23.3% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 15.9% | RH | 22.4% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 14.5% | L7Days | 27.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 10.7% |
| Cubs | Home | 20.7% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 4.8% | LH | 22.6% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 16.3% | L7Days | 20.3% | 5.2% | 13.0% | 19.7% |
| Phillies | Home | 26.7% | 11.1% | 13.7% | 12.9% | RH | 27.1% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 11.6% | L7Days | 24.7% | 8.5% | 14.0% | 14.3% |
| Twins | Road | 22.7% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 13.1% | RH | 21.8% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 19.1% | L7Days | 16.8% | 9.2% | 13.4% | 17.0% |
| Marlins | Road | 27.1% | 8.2% | 11.9% | 5.8% | RH | 24.7% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 8.5% | L7Days | 21.1% | 6.4% | 12.2% | 13.5% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 18.1% | LH | 18.8% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 21.4% | L7Days | 20.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 23.7% |
| Rangers | Home | 26.4% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 23.6% | RH | 25.9% | 8.0% | 14.7% | 23.9% | L7Days | 32.8% | 5.9% | 31.1% | 23.6% |
| Padres | Home | 26.5% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 19.3% | RH | 27.9% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 14.7% | L7Days | 24.3% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 20.1% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.3% | 11.5% | 15.0% | 13.4% | RH | 20.0% | 11.8% | 15.6% | 11.6% | L7Days | 18.7% | 12.8% | 22.0% | 6.9% |
| Giants | Road | 24.5% | 7.1% | 11.3% | 20.4% | RH | 23.1% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 20.4% | L7Days | 20.1% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 29.7% |
| Reds | Home | 22.8% | 11.1% | 12.9% | 20.8% | LH | 24.1% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 21.1% | L7Days | 20.4% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 31.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 16.7% | 13.8% | 1.21 | 16.7% | 13.8% | 1.21 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 18.3% | 8.5% | 2.15 | 19.9% | 8.3% | 2.40 |
| Fernando Romero | Twins | 21.7% | 11.3% | 1.92 | 21.7% | 11.3% | 1.92 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 13.1% | 6.8% | 1.93 | 14.4% | 7.0% | 2.06 |
| Jarlin Garcia | Marlins | 18.6% | 8.7% | 2.14 | 17.4% | 8.2% | 2.12 |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | 18.5% | 9.0% | 2.06 | 18.5% | 9.0% | 2.06 |
| John Gant | Cardinals | 11.1% | 11.4% | 0.97 | 11.1% | 11.4% | 0.97 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 19.2% | 7.7% | 2.49 | 19.1% | 7.7% | 2.48 |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | 12.6% | 8.9% | 1.42 | 9.7% | 9.1% | 1.07 |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | 18.2% | 10.6% | 1.72 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 1.78 |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 28.6% | 12.2% | 2.34 | 30.4% | 11.7% | 2.60 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 27.0% | 10.3% | 2.62 | 30.7% | 11.3% | 2.72 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 20.0% | 6.9% | 2.90 | 20.0% | 6.9% | 2.90 |
| P.J. Conlon | Mets |
Michael Fulmer has a double digit swinging strike rate that may suggest a rise in strikeout rate, but has only been above 8.7% twice in six starts. His 24.2% mark against Pittsburgh is skewing things.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 2.84 | 4.25 | 1.41 | 2.84 | 1.30 | 4.43 | 1.59 | 6.50 | 3.66 | 2.84 | 4.26 | 1.42 | 4.14 | 1.30 | 4.43 | 1.59 |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 3.98 | 3.98 | 0.00 | 3.98 | -0.21 | 4.89 | 0.91 | 3.10 | -0.88 | 4.22 | 3.63 | -0.59 | 3.45 | -0.77 | 5.04 | 0.82 |
| Fernando Romero | Twins | 0.00 | 4.34 | 4.34 | 0.00 | 4.08 | 3.52 | 3.52 | 7.51 | 7.51 | 0.00 | 4.37 | 4.37 | 4.08 | 4.08 | 3.52 | 3.52 |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 4.81 | 5.21 | 0.40 | 4.81 | 0.42 | 5.68 | 0.87 | 5.21 | 0.40 | 5.02 | 4.80 | -0.22 | 4.83 | -0.19 | 5.89 | 0.87 |
| Jarlin Garcia | Marlins | 1.09 | 4.75 | 3.66 | 1.09 | 3.46 | 3.74 | 2.65 | 4.53 | 3.44 | 0.78 | 5.04 | 4.26 | 4.7 | 3.92 | 3.60 | 2.82 |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | 5.27 | 5.66 | 0.39 | 5.27 | 0.32 | 4.55 | -0.72 | 8.45 | 3.18 | 5.27 | 5.68 | 0.41 | 5.59 | 0.32 | 4.55 | -0.72 |
| John Gant | Cardinals | 0.00 | 4.38 | 4.38 | 0.00 | 4.63 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 3.09 | 3.09 | 0.00 | 4.38 | 4.38 | 4.63 | 4.63 | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 3.19 | 4.00 | 0.81 | 3.19 | 0.78 | 5.32 | 2.13 | 3.25 | 0.06 | 3.52 | 3.93 | 0.41 | 3.85 | 0.33 | 5.68 | 2.16 |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | 7.67 | 5.55 | -2.12 | 7.67 | -1.53 | 5.35 | -2.32 | 10.05 | 2.38 | 7.46 | 6.12 | -1.34 | 6.64 | -0.82 | 5.65 | -1.81 |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | 2.80 | 4.20 | 1.40 | 2.80 | 1.17 | 3.76 | 0.96 | 4.46 | 1.66 | 3.29 | 3.96 | 0.67 | 3.74 | 0.45 | 3.82 | 0.53 |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 3.47 | 3.12 | -0.35 | 3.47 | -0.45 | 3.91 | 0.44 | 2.48 | -0.99 | 3.41 | 2.98 | -0.43 | 2.87 | -0.54 | 3.46 | 0.05 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 3.28 | 3.54 | 0.26 | 3.28 | -0.06 | 2.83 | -0.45 | 3.44 | 0.16 | 3.03 | 3.15 | 0.12 | 2.9 | -0.13 | 2.59 | -0.44 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 1.50 | 3.80 | 2.30 | 1.50 | 2.46 | 4.00 | 2.50 | 3.70 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 3.80 | 2.30 | 3.96 | 2.46 | 4.00 | 2.50 |
| P.J. Conlon | Mets |
Kyle Hendricks has a .223 BABIP and 94.2 LOB%, but also a 23.5 HR/FB. His eight HRs are already halfway to his career high of 17 (twice). He did allow three in his last start with the wind blasting out at Wrigley though and the board low exit velocity is another factor favoring a fluke in that department. He has a career .271 BABIP and a strong defense. That and his own weak contact tendencies should keep his BABIP low and help him continue to beat estimators, but there may be somewhere near 50 points of upwards regression in store here.
Michael Fulmer has had a BABIP above .300 in five straight starts, which makes his 77.6% strand rate to go along with a below average strike out rate a bit of a surprise on the high end. However, the biggest reason for the gap is that three of his 14 runs have been unearned.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 0.288 | 0.222 | -0.066 | 47.4% | 15.8% | 28.6% | 82.6% | 32.4% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 0.264 | 0.260 | -0.004 | 56.0% | 17.9% | 11.4% | 87.8% | 37.8% |
| Fernando Romero | Twins | 0.307 | 0.286 | -0.021 | 57.1% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 89.3% | 41.2% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 0.293 | 0.232 | -0.061 | 40.6% | 17.2% | 9.3% | 91.0% | 36.8% |
| Jarlin Garcia | Marlins | 0.289 | 0.151 | -0.138 | 43.7% | 18.4% | 0.0% | 86.1% | 33.5% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | 0.282 | 0.333 | 0.051 | 31.0% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 83.1% | 36.7% |
| John Gant | Cardinals | 0.286 | 0.000 | -0.286 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 90.9% | 15.0% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 0.273 | 0.223 | -0.050 | 51.8% | 17.3% | 5.9% | 89.1% | 33.5% |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | 0.312 | 0.371 | 0.059 | 36.7% | 20.2% | 6.4% | 92.3% | 36.6% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | 0.285 | 0.311 | 0.026 | 45.2% | 26.9% | 13.8% | 84.8% | 39.6% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 0.276 | 0.263 | -0.013 | 43.4% | 24.6% | 7.7% | 83.0% | 34.0% |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 0.318 | 0.293 | -0.025 | 47.3% | 25.8% | 0.0% | 87.4% | 27.2% |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 0.283 | 0.133 | -0.150 | 40.0% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 88.5% | 42.5% |
| P.J. Conlon | Mets | 0.302 |
Tyson Ross has a Z-0-Swing% that’s nearly double the second best mark on the board today and that guy has only faced nine batters this year. This is the mark of an incredibly effective slider.
StatCast Chart
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 0.352 | -0.094 | 0.396 | 0.044 | 0.352 | -0.094 | -1.1 | ||||
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | 0.292 | 0.021 | 0.301 | 0.004 | 0.282 | 0.030 | -0.4 | 87.3 | 5.2 | 34.8 | 135 |
| Fernando Romero | Twins | |||||||||||
| Homer Bailey | Reds | 0.405 | -0.083 | 0.377 | 0.001 | 0.365 | -0.042 | -0.3 | 88.2 | 9.8 | 45.1 | 133 |
| Jarlin Garcia | Marlins | 0.378 | -0.174 | 0.375 | -0.064 | 0.387 | -0.185 | -0.8 | 88.9 | 11.4 | 39.8 | 88 |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | 0.357 | -0.020 | 0.294 | 0.021 | 0.357 | -0.020 | -0.8 | 85.5 | 9.3 | 25.6 | 43 |
| John Gant | Cardinals | 0.245 | 0.029 | |||||||||
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | 0.323 | -0.026 | 0.313 | -0.011 | 0.302 | -0.028 | -0.8 | 84.8 | 8.1 | 32.4 | 111 |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | 0.405 | -0.003 | 0.366 | -0.035 | 0.417 | -0.023 | -1.1 | 90.7 | 7.3 | 45.9 | 109 |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | 0.332 | -0.016 | 0.302 | 0.008 | 0.319 | 0.013 | -0.1 | 86 | 5.5 | 32.1 | 109 |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | 0.331 | -0.049 | 0.275 | -0.014 | 0.300 | -0.038 | 0.4 | 88.7 | 9.8 | 37.7 | 122 |
| Tyson Ross | Padres | 0.291 | -0.027 | 0.364 | -0.022 | 0.280 | -0.022 | -1.2 | 86.2 | 3.2 | 36.2 | 94 |
| Zach Eflin | Phillies | 0.252 | -0.048 | 0.387 | 0.013 | 0.252 | -0.048 | -0.3 | ||||
| P.J. Conlon | Mets |
Michael Fulmer has had success perhaps more due to solid contact management than strikeouts the last couple of seasons and that’s true again this year.
Tyson Ross is just one of two pitchers with more than a single start with an xwOBA below .300 and the other one is surprisingly not Stephen Strasburg.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
We’re only using three tiers today. I feel like the three second tier guys are nearly interchangeable, with similar overall expectations, though with differing outcome ranges.
Value Tier One
Stephen Strasburg (1) costs just $10K on FanDuel, where the only excuse to even consider rostering anyone else is purely for ownership considerations. DraftKings makes it a bit more interesting, but still a no-brainer, even at $13.6K. He’s $4K more than the next higher priced pitcher, but with so much more upside and less risk. There are cheaper guys you can plug in there with him.
Tyson Ross (2) is not in an ideal spot, but he has a similar strikeout rate to Strasburg and is so much cheaper with much more strikeout upside than any of the pitchers below.
Value Tier Two
Dallas Keuchel is not someone I feel great about here, considering his lowered GB and K rates, but it is what it is today. Strasburg is only $1.2K more on FanDuel, but a full $4K more on DraftKings.
Michael Fulmer has seen his velocity tick up in each of his last three starts and has a double digit SwStr% in both, while maintaining his tendency for weak contact. He’s in a high upside matchup in Texas, but also a dangerous park against a team that does hit the ball hard when they do make contact. Something may have to give in this matchup of strengths. He’s not exactly cheap at $8K or above on either site.
Kyle Hendricks is fine, but perhaps not as good as in recent seasons and pretty damn expensive in this spot, albeit probably the best one on the board.
Value Tier Three
Brett Anderson is a marginal lefty facing the Astros, which is something that is never really recommended in DFS, but these are special circumstances. He’s cheap and probably less bad than many of your other options. He’s also shown a potential willingness to do something good.
Fernando Romero has some upside. Actually, aside from the walks, he was pretty much Dallas Keuchel in his first starts. He’s run somewhat above average strikeout and ground ball rates throughout the minors. He’s just a bit more expensive than you’d think making his second start without much fanfare, though still very affordable.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.