Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, May 21st
With a travel size slate of just five games on Saturday night, we have some space to fill, so let’s recap some of last night’s totally predictable action.
Aaron Nola, Friday’s top pick, pitched well and should have had at least 20 DraftKings points, but two bunt hits, an intentional walk, an inning extending error, and an umpire who seemed to have a personal grudge against him are things we couldn’t account for and left him with an underwhelming 17.75 points. Among some of the remaining choices Duffey and Cole combined for two Ks (both Duffey), while Kazmir somehow walked seven Padres.
The top pitcher of the night was a guy we dropped to Tier Three because of concern for a pitch count on a high price and he was indeed removed after 88 pitches got him through seven innings. He was followed by a guy that came in with a 91.7 LOB% and had allowed a HR in seven of eight starts, but shut out a high power offense for seven innings last night and then a guy with a .224 BABIP, but 36.5 Hard%. The Tier Four speculative guys (Kluber, McCullers, Corbin) did better than most.
Tonight, it’s two guys named Cesar. You don’t get many Cesars anymore, yet there it is, 20% of the slate just staring us in the face. I’m not sure I know what to do with two Cesars.
Changes for 2016 were outlined on Opening Day, which you can find here.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 4.8 | 3.81 | 6.07 | 1.67 | 0.86 | 4.21 | 2.83 | SDG | 69 | 92 | 74 |
| Cesar Ramos | TEX | 13 | 3.82 | 5.05 | 1.58 | 1.01 | 4.42 | 5.08 | HOU | 102 | 96 | 97 |
| Cesar Vargas | SDG | 2.5 | 4.61 | 5.02 | 1.9 | 0.86 | 4.93 | 4.26 | LOS | 98 | 91 | 110 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 4.9 | 3.93 | 5.71 | 1.39 | 1 | 4.05 | 5.14 | FLA | 91 | 100 | 98 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 11.6 | 3.23 | 6.61 | 1.43 | 0.89 | 3.08 | 3.29 | SFO | 113 | 102 | 73 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 2 | 2.87 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 1 | 2.61 | 2.75 | WAS | 96 | 86 | 85 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | -2 | 3.88 | 5.83 | 1.17 | 0.92 | 4.07 | 4.28 | ANA | 96 | 101 | 118 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | -0.6 | 4.5 | 5.56 | 0.98 | 0.89 | 4.74 | 3.8 | CHC | 119 | 111 | 85 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 5.1 | 3.75 | 5.59 | 0.96 | 0.92 | 4.13 | 4.99 | BAL | 123 | 122 | 104 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 2.1 | 3.65 | 5.96 | 0.95 | 1.01 | 3.72 | 3.04 | TEX | 82 | 91 | 80 |
Alex Wood had 12 strikeouts and 11 walks through his first 100 batters and was thought to be in danger of losing his spot in the rotation at some point. Since then, he’s struck out 30 of his last 94 with just four walks and I have no idea what kicked in because it’s been the same three pitches at the same frequencies and speeds. It’s beyond the scope of this article to go through all of his heat maps and find differences in pitch locations on each pitch to lefties and righties, but needless to say it’s worked to make him not only relevant again, but good, though with fewer ground balls. He still has a 55.8 GB%, though he hasn’t been above 53.3% over this four start span and he did allow three HRs in one of those starts, but just three ERs combined in the other three. He has the top park adjusted matchup on the board tonight, facing the Padres, who are terrible at home (16.8 K-BB%) and below average vs LHP (15.1 HR/FB, but 25.2 K%), despite Kazmir’s inability to throw consecutive strikes last night.
Cesar Ramos hasn’t been good, allowing eight HRs with as many walks and three HRs in 16.2 innings, but has struck out nine of 50 with just four walks in 10.1 innings in his two starts against the Yankees and Blue Jays. He has nearly league average estimators through 315.2 career innings over parts of seven seasons mostly out of the bullpen. He might be the good Cesar though as he’s kept the ball on the ground 53.4% of the time this year. Houston couldn’t touch the hard fly ball prone Colby Lewis last night and strike out 23.8% of the time at home and 25.2% against LHP (he’s a lefty?) with not much higher than league average HR rates.
Jon Lester is not suddenly in Kershaw’s league with ERA estimators right where they’ve always been (slightly above three) with an ERA below two. His K-BB% is EXACTLY where it’s been the last two years. Virtually everything is the same except for a slightly higher HR pace strangely. It’s good that we know who he is though. The Giants don’t strike out a lot, but more against lefties than righties and have been cold over the last week, hitting for little power at home (7.2 HR/FB, 6.9 Hard-Soft%). This is another favorable matchup in nearly all pitcher friendly parks tonight.
Jose Fernandez is going to be the build around pitcher tonight for most players and for good reason. He’s struck out 11 through seven innings in each of his last two starts, allowing one total run. The walk rate is enormous this season (11.7%) and that’s a concern, but they’re letting him go a little bit more (over 100 pitches each of last two starts) and he still has a K-BB% well above 20, right at his career rate. The point is, a guy with a 35.2 K% is going to generate fantasy points. The Nationals are awful against RHP and are the same team he dominated last time out. He’s struck out 20 of 54 Washington bats in two starts this season (seven walks, two runs in 13 innings). This team will take walks against RHP, but that’s probably just one guy who is purposely pitched around to get to the poorer bats.
Mike Fiers has not been nearly as good as past seasons, but there’s always something strange going on with him. This year, his K% and SwStr% have plummeted, but his LD and HR rates have rocketed with just a bit more hard contact. A 35.2 Hard% is not good at all, but he’s survived in the past with a 31.7 career Hard%. The strange thing is that he’s doubled his GB/FB ratio (1.89 this year), so despite a 22.2 HR/FB approximately double his career rate, his eight HRs are only 1/3 of his 24 last year. Who knows? Maybe the Rangers don’t know either. They’ve underperformed offensively and then got Choo back, but he left the game last night. Fiers is actually a bit of a reverse platoon guy too and it’s been more pronounced since last season (.293 wOBA/.334).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.5 LOB% – 11.8 HR/FB)
Kevin Gausman (.256 BABIP – 77.2 LOB% – 8.8 HR/FB) is still a pitcher I like overall, though a lot of his perceived improvement this year is BABIP related. His SwStr% is exactly where it was last season with a K% just over two points higher, so I don’t think it all goes away and he has a strong BABIP profile, but a stronger concern for $7.5 K today (on both sites) is a 15.9 K% vs RHP from his opponents.
Joe Ross (.270 BABIP – 76.3 LOB% – 4.9 HR/FB) has a much lower K%, SwStr%, and GB%, but also a much lower ERA than last season because he’s allowed just two of 41 fly balls to leave the yard. His ERA estimators match those of much lower priced pitchers tonight.
Cesar Vargas (.354 BABIP – 85.4 LOB% – 14.3 HR/FB) is not really the worse Cesar, but they shake out the same just at slightly different costs and appear different because he has some strange stuff going on beneath a 3.55 ERA. How do you add that BABIP and HR rate to a double digit walk rate and end up with an 85.4 LOB%? The BABIP should improve (he has a 50.6 GB% like the other Cesar), but that’s already baked into ERA estimators well above four. The SwStr% has actually been impressive, but he’s been above 10% in two very good starts, but walked at least as many as he’s struck out in three others. And though the Dodgers have less power than the Astros (though they do have a 20.4 HR/FB and 21.5 Hard-Soft% over the last week), they strike out much less.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Matt Shoemaker has allowed seven HRs in seven starts. He costs as much as a Cesar on DraftKings, but has the only truly difficult matchup tonight. If this game were taking place in Baltimore, the offensive expectations would be tremendous, but it’ll still be interesting to see in a tougher park with the middle of this order expected to be in a lot of lineups.
Matt Cain stands alone, though his last two starts: 15 IP – 3 ER – 1 HR – 2 BB – 12 K – 58 BF – 8.7 SwStr%. That’s not great or anything, but he hasn’t been the usual launching pad either in two perceived difficult spots against Toronto and at Arizona.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 20.2% | 7.3% | Road | 15.6% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 6.5% |
| Cesar Ramos | Rangers | L2 Years | 18.8% | 8.6% | Road | 15.9% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 14.7% |
| Cesar Vargas | Padres | L2 Years | 17.4% | 10.4% | Home | 13.6% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 6.3% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 20.5% | 7.0% | Road | 21.7% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 12.7% | 7.3% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 24.2% | 5.4% | Road | 24.2% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 6.3% |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.1% | 8.0% | Home | 33.1% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 40.7% | 13.0% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.3% | 6.9% | Road | 22.0% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 7.7% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 16.3% | 6.9% | Home | 14.3% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 3.5% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 20.9% | 5.6% | Home | 22.2% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 7.0% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 23.5% | 7.2% | Home | 23.0% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 6.8% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Home | 23.8% | 7.0% | LH | 25.2% | 8.4% | L7Days | 22.1% | 6.8% |
| Astros | Home | 25.6% | 11.7% | LH | 26.3% | 10.8% | L7Days | 22.5% | 8.2% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.6% | 9.3% | RH | 20.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 16.2% | 9.7% |
| Marlins | Home | 18.5% | 7.5% | RH | 19.1% | 7.9% | L7Days | 24.1% | 8.9% |
| Giants | Home | 17.2% | 10.9% | LH | 18.0% | 7.7% | L7Days | 19.8% | 7.7% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.6% | 9.0% | RH | 20.5% | 10.0% | L7Days | 19.0% | 13.1% |
| Angels | Home | 16.4% | 8.6% | RH | 15.9% | 8.2% | L7Days | 20.0% | 8.1% |
| Cubs | Road | 19.2% | 11.6% | RH | 19.8% | 11.9% | L7Days | 20.7% | 9.7% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.2% | 7.1% | RH | 21.3% | 8.1% | L7Days | 18.2% | 8.9% |
| Rangers | Road | 20.6% | 6.0% | RH | 18.7% | 7.9% | L7Days | 21.1% | 7.3% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.5% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 2016 | 31.3% | 14.3% | 10.4% | Road | 28.0% | 8.5% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 11.1% | 14.2% |
| Cesar Ramos | Rangers | L2 Years | 28.1% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 2016 | 32.8% | 18.8% | 8.7% | Road | 29.3% | 3.8% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 39.1% | 14.3% | 21.7% |
| Cesar Vargas | Padres | L2 Years | 29.3% | 14.3% | 11.0% | 2016 | 29.3% | 14.3% | 11.0% | Home | 15.6% | 11.1% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 46.0% | 22.2% | 29.8% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 28.3% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 2016 | 25.0% | 4.9% | 8.9% | Road | 30.6% | 9.6% | 16.6% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 27.6% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 2016 | 27.5% | 11.4% | 6.5% | Road | 27.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 6.7% | 25.8% |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | L2 Years | 29.8% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 2016 | 30.4% | 10.3% | 12.7% | Home | 27.3% | 9.3% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 44.0% | 12.5% | 32.0% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 28.2% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 2016 | 29.2% | 8.8% | 6.7% | Road | 31.0% | 12.8% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 35.1% | 14.3% | 13.5% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 31.9% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 2016 | 28.7% | 11.5% | 4.5% | Home | 28.5% | 10.8% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 5.9% | 2.3% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 31.1% | 12.5% | 14.9% | 2016 | 33.3% | 17.1% | 20.7% | Home | 36.9% | 15.6% | 23.3% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 6.7% | 20.6% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 33.0% | 11.8% | 13.6% | 2016 | 35.3% | 22.2% | 18.0% | Home | 35.8% | 17.7% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 0.0% | 5.6% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Home | 27.5% | 9.5% | 10.2% | LH | 31.1% | 15.1% | 14.4% | L7Days | 36.9% | 15.8% | 14.0% |
| Astros | Home | 34.3% | 12.7% | 18.0% | LH | 27.6% | 13.2% | 9.6% | L7Days | 32.3% | 18.2% | 17.9% |
| Dodgers | Road | 33.1% | 8.8% | 18.4% | RH | 32.4% | 10.8% | 15.8% | L7Days | 34.6% | 20.4% | 21.5% |
| Marlins | Home | 28.9% | 11.5% | 5.5% | RH | 27.8% | 11.2% | 4.1% | L7Days | 33.3% | 10.3% | 8.4% |
| Giants | Home | 27.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | LH | 27.3% | 8.7% | 4.1% | L7Days | 34.4% | 7.8% | 15.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 34.9% | 13.8% | 18.3% | RH | 31.8% | 11.7% | 14.6% | L7Days | 35.5% | 8.5% | 19.6% |
| Angels | Home | 29.8% | 12.5% | 10.8% | RH | 29.3% | 10.4% | 8.0% | L7Days | 33.0% | 11.9% | 12.1% |
| Cubs | Road | 32.8% | 14.4% | 15.4% | RH | 32.0% | 11.8% | 13.8% | L7Days | 33.8% | 12.9% | 10.7% |
| Orioles | Road | 32.7% | 17.7% | 15.1% | RH | 32.0% | 17.0% | 11.5% | L7Days | 36.8% | 15.9% | 16.5% |
| Rangers | Road | 29.2% | 10.6% | 10.4% | RH | 27.3% | 10.9% | 7.5% | L7Days | 30.5% | 12.5% | 12.3% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 21.7% | 8.9% | 2.44 | 29.7% | 9.0% | 3.30 |
| Cesar Ramos | TEX | 14.3% | 8.2% | 1.74 | 14.3% | 8.2% | 1.74 |
| Cesar Vargas | SDG | 17.4% | 9.5% | 1.83 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 1.83 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 17.8% | 9.4% | 1.89 | 17.4% | 9.0% | 1.93 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.72 | 25.2% | 9.6% | 2.63 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 35.2% | 14.6% | 2.41 | 33.1% | 15.0% | 2.21 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 19.7% | 11.0% | 1.79 | 19.7% | 11.0% | 1.79 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.06 | 15.6% | 7.3% | 2.14 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 15.1% | 9.6% | 1.57 | 14.1% | 11.0% | 1.28 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 16.5% | 8.0% | 2.06 | 17.1% | 7.8% | 2.19 |
Alex Wood – Here we see that perhaps the expectation of going from a 12% strikeout rate to a 30% one is a bit outlandish. Grandal is an excellent framer (+5.7 RAA = 3rd), but he’s not going to do that. He has had a 9.8 SwStr% or better in each of his last three starts though, so perhaps we’re looking at further growth to his season rates.
Jon Lester has a slightly lower SwStr% than the last two seasons with the same strikeout rate, though it’s bounced up and down (four below 8%, four above 10%) and not a real area of concern, but something that may merit watching.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 4.17 | 3.7 | -0.47 | 3.65 | -0.52 | 3.87 | -0.3 | 3.68 | 2.86 | -0.82 | 2.82 | -0.86 | 3.3 | -0.38 |
| Cesar Ramos | TEX | 4.32 | 4.75 | 0.43 | 4.73 | 0.41 | 5.56 | 1.24 | 4.32 | 4.76 | 0.44 | 4.73 | 0.41 | 5.56 | 1.24 |
| Cesar Vargas | SDG | 3.55 | 4.61 | 1.06 | 4.36 | 0.81 | 4.6 | 1.05 | 3.55 | 4.61 | 1.06 | 4.36 | 0.81 | 4.6 | 1.05 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 2.63 | 4.43 | 1.8 | 4.31 | 1.68 | 3.37 | 0.74 | 3.76 | 4.56 | 0.8 | 4.63 | 0.87 | 3.82 | 0.06 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 1.88 | 3.34 | 1.46 | 3.22 | 1.34 | 3.14 | 1.26 | 1.67 | 3.42 | 1.75 | 3.51 | 1.84 | 3.16 | 1.49 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 3.21 | 3.07 | -0.14 | 2.73 | -0.48 | 2.59 | -0.62 | 2.9 | 3.25 | 0.35 | 2.75 | -0.15 | 2.78 | -0.12 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 3 | 3.99 | 0.99 | 4.18 | 1.18 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 3 | 3.99 | 0.99 | 4.18 | 1.18 | 3.7 | 0.7 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 5.87 | 4.53 | -1.34 | 4.6 | -1.27 | 4.49 | -1.38 | 5.58 | 4.41 | -1.17 | 4.42 | -1.16 | 4.96 | -0.62 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 8.49 | 5.04 | -3.45 | 5.11 | -3.38 | 6 | -2.49 | 12.56 | 5.08 | -7.48 | 5.35 | -7.21 | 6.45 | -6.11 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 4.63 | 3.84 | -0.79 | 3.45 | -1.18 | 4.51 | -0.12 | 3.54 | 3.69 | 0.15 | 3.32 | -0.22 | 3.24 | -0.3 |
Jon Lester has some interesting things going on, including a low with a career high LD rate, but otherwise decent BABIP indicators and a team defense that has matched his BABIP. It’s expected to rise in his estimators and probably will along with that of his defense, but it’s an interesting conflict at this point and makes you wonder how much better his ERA might be this season with the exact same peripherals if the defense has improved. ERA estimators assume something close to an average defense and there’s generally not such a wide range that it ever comes into question, but with a team BABIP that remained that low, it could be a significant factor. The 91.1 LOB% will drop. There’s no question about that.
Mike Fiers generally has a BABIP and/or strand rate all over the place. This year, he’s doubled his GB/FB, but also his HR/FB. Who knows if some or any of it will last.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.275 | 0.302 | 0.027 | 0.171 | 11.4% | 89.0% |
| Cesar Ramos | TEX | 0.289 | 0.345 | 0.056 | 0.19 | 12.5% | 92.3% |
| Cesar Vargas | SDG | 0.301 | 0.354 | 0.053 | 0.228 | 4.8% | 87.2% |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 0.282 | 0.270 | -0.012 | 0.24 | 9.8% | 88.3% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.251 | 0.256 | 0.005 | 0.231 | 13.6% | 87.7% |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 0.301 | 0.343 | 0.042 | 0.33 | 10.3% | 81.5% |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.296 | 0.256 | -0.04 | 0.159 | 14.7% | 86.1% |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.313 | 0.333 | 0.02 | 0.272 | 14.8% | 88.4% |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 0.290 | 0.337 | 0.047 | 0.287 | 12.2% | 87.6% |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.313 | 0.310 | -0.003 | 0.307 | 5.6% | 87.1% |
Cesar Ramos still has fewer than 20 innings, so we normally wouldn’t even bother with this, but just 10 pitchers today gives us some time. The profile looks fine, though he’s not missing bats in the zone and allowing some hard contact (32.8%) on the ground (53.4%). I don’t think he’ll be in the rotation long enough to worry either way, but there should be some give in his BABIP with a .297 career rate.
Jose Fernandez has issues in both his walk rate and enormous LD%. He now has a 23.7 career LD%. That’s pretty high. His .343 BABIP is the same as it was last season in 64.2 innings, making it a .343 BABIP with a LD rate above 30 over 112.1 innings since returning from Tommy John surgery. But he’s still stranding a high rate of batters because he strikes everyone else out. A 30.4 Hard% is a bit high, but not out of control and suggests regression in his LD rate.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
A couple of points of interest among today’s pricing. FanDuel is stuck in 2014 with Matt Shoemaker, maintaining a price above $7K for some strange reason. Then Lester is the highest priced pitcher on FanDuel, while Fernandez has him by nearly $2K on DraftKings.
Value Tier One
Jose Fernandez (1) is the obvious guy tonight and the strikeout rate gives it merit. It would be Fancy Play Syndrome after a couple of rough days to place someone else here tonight. There are some flaws for those who wish to fade in GPPs though. Maybe he walks a few too many and some hard contact comes into play. Maybe Harper or Murphy run into one with a couple of guys on base? Or maybe Mattingly pulls him in the sixth after 110 and 117 pitches in his last two starts.
Value Tier Two
Jon Lester (2) appears to be the same pitcher he’s been the last two years (some small idiosyncrasies in SwStr% and BABIP outstanding), but we should probably continue to expect the same out of him. That’s fine because the cost hasn’t risen to reflect his new ERA below two. He’s normally a fairly comfortable start. Perhaps it’s not the same upside as some other pitchers at a similar price point, but it’s not much of a roller coaster either. Though now that I look at his game log strikeouts, I may want to scratch that (four or five in five starts, nine or 10 in the other three). I had just expected consistency from him without actually checking because his overall numbers are always so similar. So Lester is going to be either hit or miss tonight……
Value Tier Three
Alex Wood (3) would be higher if we had started the season on April 29th, but we still have to consider that the first four starts happened and he still has an ERA over four with estimators above 3.5 this season. The confidence is growing though even at a cost reaching $9K in the night’s top matchup.
Mike Fiers (4) is the speculative outside the box play tonight. You’d expect some regression in the HR rate and if he keeps generating ground balls, it might mean a lot less HRs. The strikeout rate is lacking, so maybe his is all part of some grand chaotic plan to become Dallas Keuchel gone wrong, but the cost isn’t high and the Rangers are likely to run a lot of LH bats out there against a pitcher with a pretty stark reverse platoon split.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Cesar Ramos if rostering Jose Fernandez and looking for a complete punt in your other pitcher slot on DraftKings. He’s the lowest price on the board and might look less dangerous than Shoemaker for just a few hundred more against Baltimore. He has just a 14.3 K%, but a reasonable 8.2 SwStr% and the Astros have been known to swing and miss a time or two.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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