Advanced Stats - Pitching: Thursday, August 11th
This has to be the smallest slate that’s been covered here this season, although something similar may have popped up on a holiday, but there are just four games tonight. While you’d expect the question to be: are there any viable pitchers? It’s actually: why are we wasting all these strong arms on a four game slate? Three of the top nine K-BB rates in baseball are on this slate tonight. It’s probably going to be more difficult finding competent low ownership bats than it is an arm tonight.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | TeamDef | SIERAL2Yrs | IP/GSL2Yrs | GB/FBL2Yrs | ParkRun | Hm/RdxFIP | SIERAL14 | Opp | OppHm/Rd | Opp L/RwRC+ | Opp L7wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -7.2 | 3.66 | 6.12 | 2.11 | 1.03 | 3.67 | 4.98 | CHC | 101 | 102 | 103 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 5.9 | 3.04 | 6.94 | 1.27 | 1.03 | 3.38 | 3.38 | ANA | 99 | 101 | 66 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 5.6 | 4 | 5.54 | 0.91 | 1.04 | 4.63 | 2.88 | CHW | 87 | 98 | 98 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 3.2 | 4.36 | 5.6 | 1.08 | 1.07 | 4.21 | 4.02 | NYY | 83 | 91 | 112 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ANA | 4.7 | 4.41 | 5.43 | 1.63 | 1.03 | 4.35 | 2.34 | CLE | 125 | 106 | 110 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 9.1 | 3.35 | 6.37 | 1.46 | 1.03 | 3.18 | 2.81 | STL | 110 | 92 | 92 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.8 | 3.19 | 5.9 | 1.43 | 1.07 | 2.97 | 3.7 | BOS | 122 | 115 | 88 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 2.5 | 4.48 | 5.8 | 1.09 | 1.04 | 4.5 | 4.78 | KAN | 101 | 86 | 85 |
Corey Kluber may be the top overall pitcher on the slate. He’s increased his K% and SwStr% over the last month and gone at least seven innings in seven of his last eight starts. The Angels are an average offense, but predominantly right-handed and this is a pitcher who dominates RHBs with a wOBA below .250 this season and just .263 for his career. They have very little power aside from a couple of bats (8.7 HR/FB on the road, 9.2 HR/FB vs RHP), but the concern is obviously the lowest strikeout rate in baseball (15.4% vs RHP).
Jon Lester has struck out 22 of his last 71 batters as he seems to be back on track again. After a span of seven starts where he walked at least three in five of them, he’s walked just a total of two in his last two. This is a decent spot against the Cardinals because we all know by now that they are a below average offense vs LHP.
Michael Pineda had a rough outing against a very good Cleveland offense last time out, snapping a string of eight strikeouts in three straight starts, but still set down six of 23 on strikes and retains the fifth highest SwStr in baseball (14.3%). Hard contact his up again, and that’s a concern, above 35% in each of his five starts since the break, though it’s led to just a 17.7 LD%, while his BABIP has actually dropped to .288. The Red Sox are the worst matchup on the board. They are the second best offense at home (16.5 K%) and best vs RHP (18.0 K%), but have struggled since the break (95 wRC+) and their two top bats left the game with injuries last night (Ortiz, Betts).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Carlos Martinez (.271 – 77.8% – 11.3) has tanked over the last month with his strikeout rate even dropping below 20% for the season now. He did just post a GB rate above 50% for the first time in four starts against the Braves, but his hard hit rate has remained above 33% in each of those four starts since the break. He’s also down a mile and a half per hour over his last two starts. Uh-oh. While the Cubs aren’t exactly a favorable matchup, they haven’t been an overall offense to fear at home against RHP. In fact, they have one of the top two strikeout rates on the board today (22.6% vs RHP). It’s really the walk rate where they thrive (10.6% vs RHP, 11.3% at home) and he’s been issuing a lot of free passes as well, exactly four in three of his last five starts.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Danny Duffy has the top K-BB rate on the board tonight (23.4%) and has pitched into the seventh inning in seven of eight starts now. The issue is that aside from the complete and utter dominance of the Rays two starts back, he’s failed to strike out more than seven in any other start since July 2nd. That might be nitpicking, but something you have to do when a pitcher costs $12.4K. The White Sox are not a strong offense by any means and do have one of the top two strikeout rates on the board tonight (22.7% vs LHP), which is why I’m more neutral on him for nearly $3K less on FanDuel. Remember that he still has some issues third time through the order as well, with batters hitting almost all of his pitches (except the slider) for a .200+ ISO.
Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched a bit better recently, but still has gotten through six innings in just one of his last four starts. His ERA is a bit lower than his league average peripherals over since the break due to an 83.3 LOB%. Boston is a tough park for southpaws. He has a career 12.0 K-BB% with a 15.2 HR/FB at home and the Yankees have just an 18.1 K% vs LHP. It’s tough to absolutely hate him in a secondary role for just $5.2K on DraftKIngs though.
Jhoulys Chacin has been pitching out of the bullpen since the beginning of July. He went four innings in three straight outings to end the month, so he may be able to give the Angels five, but then again, he only got to six innings four times in 15 starts. The K% has been up in the bullpen, but the SwStr% is not. A RHP facing Cleveland at home is not a good matchup.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 22.5% | 8.3% | Road | 23.4% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 11.1% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 27.5% | 5.4% | Home | 25.6% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 5.6% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 21.5% | 7.4% | Home | 19.2% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 6.3% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 18.6% | 7.5% | Home | 19.1% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 23.6% | 8.3% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Angels | L2 Years | 18.3% | 8.9% | Road | 17.2% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 40.7% | 11.1% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 24.8% | 6.1% | Home | 25.4% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 4.0% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 24.5% | 4.3% | Road | 24.2% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 9.8% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 17.6% | 7.6% | Road | 17.8% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 10.9% | 1.8% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | Home | 21.6% | 11.3% | RH | 22.6% | 10.6% | L7Days | 20.2% | 6.0% |
| Angels | Road | 15.9% | 7.6% | RH | 15.4% | 7.8% | L7Days | 18.2% | 7.0% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.4% | 6.9% | LH | 22.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 18.6% | 6.5% |
| Yankees | Road | 19.9% | 6.7% | LH | 18.1% | 7.9% | L7Days | 19.4% | 8.8% |
| Indians | Home | 19.0% | 9.6% | RH | 20.7% | 8.5% | L7Days | 27.0% | 8.3% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.1% | 8.9% | LH | 20.4% | 8.5% | L7Days | 18.3% | 10.5% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.5% | 9.0% | RH | 18.0% | 8.5% | L7Days | 18.5% | 10.3% |
| Royals | Home | 18.4% | 6.5% | RH | 20.2% | 6.1% | L7Days | 23.4% | 4.9% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 27.8% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 2016 | 29.7% | 11.3% | 10.7% | Road | 30.4% | 7.8% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 20.0% | 13.1% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 27.9% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 2016 | 27.7% | 8.3% | 7.2% | Home | 25.5% | 8.5% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 0.0% | 8.3% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 31.6% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 2016 | 34.4% | 10.7% | 13.3% | Home | 34.1% | 9.6% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 44.7% | 4.0% | 31.9% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.7% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 2016 | 29.3% | 15.2% | 8.6% | Home | 28.3% | 15.2% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Angels | L2 Years | 34.2% | 13.0% | 15.9% | 2016 | 33.0% | 12.4% | 13.6% | Road | 36.9% | 18.9% | 19.8% | L14 Days | 46.2% | 12.5% | 30.8% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 27.8% | 11.9% | 6.9% | 2016 | 27.7% | 15.1% | 7.6% | Home | 29.5% | 11.9% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 10.0% | 24.2% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 30.7% | 14.3% | 13.6% | 2016 | 33.0% | 17.8% | 15.7% | Road | 30.7% | 9.5% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 40.6% | 16.7% | 31.2% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 29.7% | 11.9% | 12.4% | 2016 | 31.0% | 9.0% | 14.1% | Road | 28.9% | 12.0% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 5.9% | 22.9% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | Home | 29.3% | 12.1% | 9.5% | RH | 31.6% | 12.7% | 12.4% | L7Days | 36.1% | 12.3% | 13.5% |
| Angels | Road | 30.0% | 8.7% | 9.6% | RH | 30.6% | 9.2% | 11.8% | L7Days | 33.1% | 10.5% | 14.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 29.5% | 10.6% | 11.0% | LH | 30.5% | 12.9% | 10.8% | L7Days | 36.1% | 11.9% | 21.9% |
| Yankees | Road | 29.3% | 10.2% | 12.7% | LH | 29.7% | 10.0% | 8.5% | L7Days | 34.6% | 9.3% | 21.0% |
| Indians | Home | 31.7% | 14.8% | 15.9% | RH | 31.4% | 14.4% | 13.5% | L7Days | 28.6% | 15.8% | 11.6% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.5% | 14.3% | 15.1% | LH | 31.3% | 11.1% | 14.6% | L7Days | 34.4% | 7.9% | 21.1% |
| Red Sox | Home | 34.2% | 12.2% | 16.1% | RH | 34.8% | 13.4% | 16.3% | L7Days | 36.0% | 6.9% | 18.3% |
| Royals | Home | 31.2% | 9.4% | 11.1% | RH | 29.7% | 9.1% | 10.0% | L7Days | 33.7% | 6.8% | 21.1% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 19.9% | 8.7% | 2.29 | 16.0% | 7.4% | 2.16 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 25.7% | 12.2% | 2.11 | 28.4% | 14.5% | 1.96 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 28.8% | 14.1% | 2.04 | 29.0% | 14.2% | 2.04 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 18.4% | 9.2% | 2.00 | 21.9% | 10.6% | 2.07 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ANA | 18.1% | 7.8% | 2.32 | 31.0% | 7.5% | 4.13 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 24.5% | 10.3% | 2.38 | 24.8% | 10.8% | 2.30 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 27.5% | 14.3% | 1.92 | 28.8% | 15.4% | 1.87 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 17.6% | 8.5% | 2.07 | 18.9% | 7.4% | 2.55 |
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.31 ERA – 4.27 SIERA – 4.21 xFIP – 4.26 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | SeasonERA | SeasonSIERA | DIFF | SeasonxFIP | DIFF | SeasonFIP | DIFF | ERAL30 | SIERAL30 | DIFF | xFIPL30 | DIFF | FIPL30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.29 | 4.1 | 0.81 | 3.99 | 0.7 | 3.85 | 0.56 | 5.25 | 4.99 | -0.26 | 4.91 | -0.34 | 5.63 | 0.38 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 3.22 | 3.4 | 0.18 | 3.3 | 0.08 | 2.79 | -0.43 | 1.55 | 3.3 | 1.75 | 3.42 | 1.87 | 2.27 | 0.72 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 2.97 | 3.14 | 0.17 | 3.56 | 0.59 | 3.25 | 0.28 | 2.67 | 3.33 | 0.66 | 3.78 | 1.11 | 2.92 | 0.25 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 5.93 | 4.74 | -1.19 | 4.86 | -1.07 | 5.3 | -0.63 | 3.18 | 4.16 | 0.98 | 4 | 0.82 | 3.63 | 0.45 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ANA | 5.27 | 4.44 | -0.83 | 4.34 | -0.93 | 4.29 | -0.98 | 2.4 | 2.86 | 0.46 | 3.28 | 0.88 | 3.46 | 1.06 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 2.93 | 3.67 | 0.74 | 3.55 | 0.62 | 3.83 | 0.9 | 2.55 | 4.01 | 1.46 | 3.66 | 1.11 | 3.37 | 0.82 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 5.17 | 3.33 | -1.84 | 3.27 | -1.9 | 3.89 | -1.28 | 4.5 | 3.35 | -1.15 | 3.28 | -1.22 | 4.33 | -0.17 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 4.09 | 4.59 | 0.5 | 4.51 | 0.42 | 3.98 | -0.11 | 3.41 | 4.07 | 0.66 | 3.9 | 0.49 | 3.35 | -0.06 |
Corey Kluber has mostly remained stable with his estimators over the last month with a bit of an increase in his K-BB to 22%, but with a 3.6 HR/FB and 87 LOB%.
Jon Lester has estimators above the last few years, but in line with his career aside from his FIP, due to a career high 15.1 HR/FB. His .263 BABIP is a career low and 36 points below his career average. His profile is perfectly average as you can see below, but the defense has been exceptional. His 83.6 LOB% is also a career high by more than five points.
Michael Pineda has allowed hard contact above 35% in all five of his starts over the last month, resulting in just a 17.7 LD% and .288 BABIP, but an increased HR rate again (21.4 HR/FB), though three of his six came in one start.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 20.8 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 87.3 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.295 | 0.271 | -0.024 | 0.176 | 3.1% | 88.5% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.286 | 0.272 | -0.014 | 0.207 | 5.3% | 86.6% |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.294 | 0.282 | -0.012 | 0.206 | 11.5% | 78.9% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.302 | 0.324 | 0.022 | 0.262 | 12.7% | 89.1% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ANA | 0.301 | 0.311 | 0.01 | 0.209 | 12.4% | 93.3% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.255 | 0.263 | 0.008 | 0.202 | 10.9% | 87.2% |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.295 | 0.335 | 0.04 | 0.217 | 2.5% | 85.5% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.296 | 0.298 | 0.002 | 0.228 | 7.2% | 87.3% |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
I’ve left two good pitchers off our list today for reasons mentioned above. Let’s just list the last three standing in order of point per dollar preference below, though it’s incredibly close on FanDuel between the three, while Pineda gets a bit of an edge on DraftKings with more price separation.
Corey Kluber (1) has failed to get at least two outs in the seventh inning just six times in 22 starts this year. He’s failed to strike out at least six just twice since his first start and has increased his K% over the last month. He has a tremendous floor, but also a high price, the highest on FanDuel. The Angels strike out less than any team in baseball, but you’ve still got to feel pretty good about his high floor.
Jon Lester (2) is the easy consideration today. He’s looked much better in his last two starts and faces a good offense, but one known to struggle against LHP.
Michael Pineda has struck out just 13 of 70 Red Sox in 16 innings, allowing nine runs and four HRs. He hasn’t been very successful against them and this is a high risk play, as Pineda always is when used. He has seemed to have established a decent floor with at least six Ks in nine of his last 10 starts, which is more impressive with a $7K price tag on DraftKings. The Red Sox have been more average than fearsome since the break and may be down a couple of huge bats tonight.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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