Advanced Stats - Pitching: Thursday, May 26th
Today is not that much different from last night. There are a couple of $9K pitchers tonight and a few talented arms, but for the most, tonight is the 2nd night in a row without any pitchers that really need to be built around. Theoretically, that should lead to more lineup diversity as we’re lacking that pitcher in a spot that really needs to be attacked either. It’s just five games, but should be interesting with the younger upside arms in some tough matchups with lesser pitchers in better ones.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 3.9 | 3.91 | 6.26 | 1.35 | 1.07 | 4.23 | 5.89 | COL | 88 | 87 | 51 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 5.7 | 4.3 | 5.39 | 0.93 | 1.04 | 4.79 | 3.21 | CHW | 100 | 103 | 65 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 6.3 | 3.86 | 5.72 | 1.46 | 1.02 | 3.69 | 4.17 | STL | 124 | 125 | 117 |
| Jonathan Gray | COL | 1.9 | 3.49 | 4.81 | 1.61 | 1.07 | 3.16 | 3.61 | BOS | 136 | 127 | 151 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | -2.8 | 3.86 | 5.86 | 1.19 | 1.01 | 3.96 | 4.61 | HOU | 94 | 97 | 31 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 4.8 | 3.62 | 5.67 | 1.51 | 1.01 | 3.2 | 4.16 | BAL | 108 | 113 | 74 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | -4.8 | 4.8 | 5.97 | 0.77 | 0.96 | 5.27 | 3.4 | MIL | 75 | 91 | 48 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 3.2 | 4.57 | 5.82 | 1.01 | 1.04 | 4.75 | 4.62 | KAN | 88 | 97 | 112 |
| Mike Leake | STL | -9.5 | 3.9 | 6.29 | 1.93 | 1.02 | 3.92 | 3.68 | WAS | 89 | 88 | 96 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | -8.4 | 4.34 | 5.69 | 1.84 | 0.96 | 4.8 | 4.61 | ATL | 63 | 72 | 63 |
Danny Duffy has gone three and 4.1 innings in his two starts, working his way up to what should be about five or six tonight. The thing is, he hasn’t allowed a run and has struck out eight of 29 batters faced. It’s not a lot to go on and we can’t buy into his season strikeout rate out of the bullpen, he was a highly regarded prospect at one time. He’s a fly ball pitcher who can do well at home in a neutral matchup and would be well worth his price if he could even generate something close to a league average K% here.
Jonathan Gray got smoked in his last road outing against a team that pounds RHPs. This guy can’t catch a break as he gets another road outing against the only offense better vs RHP. While he clearly pitched poorly in that start, he still has a 21.0 K-BB% with a 50.0 GB%. The Red Sox are the best offense in the land. It’s very akin to facing a slightly above average offense at Coors.
Kevin Gausman has had one poor start this year. Believe it or not, everything appears to be similar to last year. His 10.8 SwStr% is the same, his 27.3 Hard% is the same, his 14.7 K-BB% is actually a point less, except now he’s beating the same ERA estimators that he ran below last year, when he was just as good a pitcher. I’ll complain….I mean go more in depth below, but his opponents have been ice cold and have some strikeouts in their bats (25.3 K% vs RHP).
Lance McCullers looked better in his last start than his initial one, striking out seven of 25 Rangers and getting through six innings with two runs. Control issues remain, but he has upside and we can’t be too picky today. The Orioles have a ton of power (16.3 HR/FB on the road, 16.2 HR/FB vs RHP) and are normally good vs RHP, but have struggled over the last week and strike out 23.1% against RHP. One thing that might concern me is that the Orioles have struggled with a lot of soft tossing RHPs over the last week (Shoemaker, Weaver, Fister, McHugh), but he does not fit that mold. Prior to that, they were punishing righties at an elite level.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.5 LOB% – 11.8 HR/FB)
Joe Ross (.288 BABIP – 77.1 LOB% – 7.0 HR/FB) has spiked a double digit SwStr% in three of his last four starts. That’s a great sign. His strand rate is a few points higher than last year, but not entirely unsustainable and the HR rate might be flying a bit low. If he maintains a double digit SwStr% going forward, I think his ERA estimators below might be a bit too high, though he still needs to find that pitch to get lefties out more consistently. Today’s issue is more one of a high cost against a really tough offense on RHPs (32.9 Hard%, 15.2 HR/FB).
Matt Wisler (.230 BABIP – 76.5 LOB% – 6.5 HR/FB) has seen a lot of hard contact (38.0 Hard%) find its way into gloves. His hard hit rate has been below 33% just once in eight starts.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Mike Leake has a 5.5 SwStr% and 35.5 Hard%. No matter where he goes, there’s his 13.7 career HR/FB. Washington has been terrible against RHPs not named Matt Harvey, so you might still want to take a Leake for $6.6K on FanDuel, but I’m not going to take a Leake, especially not for over $7K on DraftKings.
Clay Buchholz has gone from good regression candidate to just a total mess this season, often walking as many as he strikes out. He now has just a 4.9 K-BB% on the season with a drop in GB rate of 10 points from his career average. He’s only once allowed more than 17 HRs in a season and has already allowed nine. He does have a nice matchup with an ice cold Colorado offense that has always struggled away from Coors. That might just make him worth his $5K price tag on DraftKings should you find the need to punt your secondary pitcher, but I don’t see why that should happen tonight.
Wily Peralta is facing the Braves. You stop. You think. You see a 4.0 SwStr% over the last month. You move on. And he needed a 9.3% mark in his last start to hit that. Why can’t it be almost any other pitcher today in this spot?
Miguel Gonzalez struck out eight of 25 Royals in a season high six innings in his last start. His 7.5 SwStr% was his lowest of the season, though he has only struck out 11 of 76 batters previously. None of that makes sense, but he’s never had a SwStr above 9% or below 8%, so why change now? His 9.9 BB% is a career high.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 19.8% | 7.1% | Home | 18.9% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 13.0% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 19.1% | 8.6% | Home | 17.1% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 6.3% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 20.8% | 7.1% | Home | 19.4% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 7.4% |
| Jonathan Gray | Rockies | L2 Years | 24.5% | 7.4% | Road | 29.5% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 8.3% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.4% | 6.8% | Road | 22.0% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 12.7% | 5.5% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 24.7% | 8.6% | Home | 26.8% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 12.8% |
| Matt Wisler | Braves | L2 Years | 15.9% | 7.6% | Home | 14.2% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 3.6% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 16.5% | 8.1% | Road | 16.9% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 10.0% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 16.8% | 6.0% | Road | 15.1% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 4.1% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | L2 Years | 15.5% | 8.0% | Road | 13.4% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 10.4% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies | Road | 21.2% | 6.3% | RH | 18.6% | 6.9% | L7Days | 21.1% | 5.0% |
| White Sox | Road | 20.3% | 7.4% | LH | 21.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 23.9% | 7.7% |
| Cardinals | Road | 19.4% | 9.6% | RH | 19.7% | 8.6% | L7Days | 20.2% | 9.4% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.3% | 9.4% | RH | 18.9% | 8.4% | L7Days | 14.8% | 11.3% |
| Astros | Home | 25.9% | 10.9% | RH | 25.3% | 9.9% | L7Days | 27.6% | 4.8% |
| Orioles | Road | 26.0% | 7.1% | RH | 23.1% | 8.0% | L7Days | 31.4% | 7.1% |
| Brewers | Road | 26.9% | 10.7% | RH | 27.6% | 10.0% | L7Days | 33.0% | 8.8% |
| Royals | Home | 18.3% | 6.5% | RH | 19.6% | 5.9% | L7Days | 21.4% | 4.3% |
| Nationals | Home | 18.8% | 10.5% | RH | 20.3% | 9.8% | L7Days | 15.6% | 9.5% |
| Braves | Home | 22.2% | 7.9% | RH | 19.8% | 8.4% | L7Days | 18.5% | 9.0% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 27.9% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 2016 | 30.3% | 12.7% | 12.7% | Home | 26.2% | 8.2% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 13.6% | 17.9% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 29.1% | 7.7% | 10.3% | 2016 | 22.7% | 3.8% | 0.0% | Home | 29.9% | 7.0% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 0.0% | -20.0% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 28.6% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 2016 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 9.9% | Home | 26.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 18.2% | 5.0% |
| Jonathan Gray | Rockies | L2 Years | 32.9% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 2016 | 27.6% | 11.1% | 11.5% | Road | 29.2% | 3.6% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 0.0% | 3.2% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 28.0% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 2016 | 27.3% | 7.7% | 7.3% | Road | 29.9% | 12.1% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 7.7% | 9.1% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 29.5% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 2016 | 36.7% | 0.0% | 20.0% | Home | 30.3% | 7.1% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Matt Wisler | Braves | L2 Years | 31.3% | 9.1% | 13.1% | 2016 | 38.0% | 6.5% | 17.5% | Home | 31.3% | 6.3% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 41.0% | 0.0% | 23.0% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 29.4% | 13.1% | 10.6% | 2016 | 24.3% | 10.7% | 1.4% | Road | 26.5% | 14.0% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 8.3% | -23.5% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 31.3% | 13.8% | 15.8% | 2016 | 35.5% | 14.3% | 22.4% | Road | 29.4% | 13.6% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 11.1% | 10.0% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.1% | 14.4% | 11.2% | 2016 | 36.4% | 17.4% | 23.1% | Road | 32.1% | 7.8% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 48.5% | 30.0% | 33.3% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies | Road | 29.6% | 13.6% | 9.2% | RH | 30.4% | 10.7% | 12.1% | L7Days | 19.9% | 9.5% | -6.8% |
| White Sox | Road | 28.4% | 10.7% | 10.5% | LH | 28.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% | L7Days | 29.5% | 8.8% | 6.2% |
| Cardinals | Road | 31.4% | 15.1% | 12.7% | RH | 32.9% | 15.2% | 14.7% | L7Days | 35.5% | 15.9% | 15.9% |
| Red Sox | Home | 32.8% | 12.6% | 14.3% | RH | 33.0% | 12.8% | 14.6% | L7Days | 28.4% | 10.4% | 7.4% |
| Astros | Home | 36.4% | 13.3% | 21.1% | RH | 34.8% | 15.3% | 17.9% | L7Days | 38.7% | 14.0% | 26.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 30.7% | 16.3% | 12.1% | RH | 31.0% | 16.2% | 10.2% | L7Days | 25.9% | 12.7% | 5.5% |
| Brewers | Road | 28.2% | 12.2% | 7.8% | RH | 31.5% | 15.3% | 12.2% | L7Days | 34.1% | 11.4% | 13.6% |
| Royals | Home | 28.8% | 9.3% | 6.0% | RH | 28.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 24.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% |
| Nationals | Home | 30.8% | 11.3% | 12.7% | RH | 32.6% | 11.7% | 15.2% | L7Days | 36.2% | 11.4% | 17.3% |
| Braves | Home | 28.6% | 4.4% | 9.9% | RH | 23.8% | 4.4% | 2.8% | L7Days | 26.5% | 8.5% | 1.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 15.5% | 8.9% | 1.74 | 13.6% | 8.6% | 1.58 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 28.2% | 17.9% | 1.58 | 31.8% | 19.1% | 1.66 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 18.9% | 10.1% | 1.87 | 20.2% | 10.5% | 1.92 |
| Jonathan Gray | COL | 28.3% | 11.8% | 2.40 | 25.2% | 11.7% | 2.15 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 20.0% | 10.8% | 1.85 | 20.0% | 10.8% | 1.85 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 23.4% | 11.1% | 2.11 | 23.4% | 11.1% | 2.11 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 17.7% | 7.7% | 2.30 | 16.6% | 7.6% | 2.18 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.68 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.68 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 14.2% | 5.5% | 2.58 | 12.5% | 5.7% | 2.19 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 14.1% | 6.6% | 2.14 | 12.4% | 4.0% | 3.10 |
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 5.92 | 5.19 | -0.73 | 5.38 | -0.54 | 5.49 | -0.43 | 5.64 | 5.57 | -0.07 | 5.64 | 0 | 5.51 | -0.13 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 2.13 | 2.91 | 0.78 | 3.33 | 1.2 | 2.24 | 0.11 | 0.56 | 2.54 | 1.98 | 2.88 | 2.32 | 1.51 | 0.95 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 2.7 | 4.18 | 1.48 | 4.02 | 1.32 | 3.41 | 0.71 | 3.9 | 4.05 | 0.15 | 3.88 | -0.02 | 3.67 | -0.23 |
| Jonathan Gray | COL | 6.75 | 2.96 | -3.79 | 2.64 | -4.11 | 2.57 | -4.18 | 6.33 | 3.17 | -3.16 | 2.9 | -3.43 | 2.03 | -4.3 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 2.7 | 3.82 | 1.12 | 3.92 | 1.22 | 3.31 | 0.61 | 2.7 | 3.83 | 1.13 | 3.92 | 1.22 | 3.31 | 0.61 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 5.91 | 4.15 | -1.76 | 3.72 | -2.19 | 2.69 | -3.22 | 5.91 | 4.16 | -1.75 | 3.72 | -2.19 | 2.69 | -3.22 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 2.93 | 4.41 | 1.48 | 4.71 | 1.78 | 3.7 | 0.77 | 2.83 | 4.73 | 1.9 | 4.89 | 2.06 | 3.44 | 0.61 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 4.57 | 4.58 | 0.01 | 5 | 0.43 | 4.78 | 0.21 | 4.57 | 4.59 | 0.02 | 5 | 0.43 | 4.78 | 0.21 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 4.07 | 4.18 | 0.11 | 4.13 | 0.06 | 4.39 | 0.32 | 3 | 4.12 | 1.12 | 4.16 | 1.16 | 4.61 | 1.61 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 6.99 | 4.83 | -2.16 | 4.77 | -2.22 | 5.46 | -1.53 | 6.55 | 4.67 | -1.88 | 4.54 | -2.01 | 5.48 | -1.07 |
Jonathan Gray has a .376 BABIP based on a 28.6 LD% that’s higher than his 27.6 Hard%. In fact, his LD% has been below 25% in each of his last three starts and his Hard% was only above 27% once in his last five starts (his last start – 30.8%). He stranded just half his runners (50.9%).
Kevin Gausman had a 3.69 SIERA and 3.80 xFIP last year, numbers that are slightly better than what you see above. Everything looks exactly the same from a batted ball and contact rate standpoint except 7.7 HR/FB that’s nearly cut in half. He was actually generating more soft contact last year too. His 79.9 LOB% just means he’s sequencing things better.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 0.294 | 0.276 | -0.018 | 0.191 | 16.9% | 86.1% |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.294 | 0.323 | 0.029 | 0.231 | 7.7% | 69.4% |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 0.281 | 0.288 | 0.007 | 0.239 | 11.6% | 87.0% |
| Jonathan Gray | COL | 0.319 | 0.376 | 0.057 | 0.286 | 5.6% | 87.4% |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.296 | 0.280 | -0.016 | 0.183 | 15.4% | 85.7% |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 0.317 | 0.400 | 0.083 | 0.233 | 28.6% | 95.9% |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 0.300 | 0.230 | -0.07 | 0.183 | 7.8% | 90.9% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.278 | 0.328 | 0.05 | 0.159 | 14.3% | 83.6% |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.293 | 0.256 | -0.037 | 0.209 | 4.1% | 94.5% |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 0.302 | 0.386 | 0.084 | 0.219 | 6.5% | 93.6% |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
The top three pitchers in cost are all from DraftKings (two above $9K). Matt Wisler is incredibly over-priced at $9.1K. Consider that Buchholz costs more than him on FanDuel, where everyone fits between $6.3K and $8.2K. DraftKings only has three pitchers WITHIN that range.
Value Tier One
Danny Duffy – Nearly three quarters of his innings have come out of the bullpen and need to be heavily discounted, but he has looked really good in his two starts. He may not get more than five innings, but even a decent performance giving him 15 points or so, would pay him off on DraftKings, though he probably drops a tier on FanDuel for over $1K more. You might understand why he’s up here even on an 80 pitch limit when you see some of the matchups for the higher upside arms tonight.
Value Tier Two
Lance McCullers could blow up here. I’m concerned about a hard throwing RHP with control issues against Baltimore in a power friendly park, but I think he has more upside and a slightly better matchup than a guy like Ross for the same price. I’ve flipped him and Gray several times.
Value Tier Three
Jonathan Gray pitched terribly when he topped this list last time out against the Cardinals a week ago, but the circumstances were a bit different. There were more games, other reasonable options, and he cost over $2K more on DraftKings. It’s really been his only poor performance though. He is in a terrible spot tonight and you don’t need me to tell you not to consider him in cash games, but he has upside at a cost that is now very low across the board.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Kevin Gausman – I was a fan last year when he was doing all the same things just in a different order and cost $6-7K. Now he costs $8-9K. I’d actually consider passing on him for this price on a more normal day, but the choices are few and the Astros should give at least a league average strikeout base.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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