ALCS Game 3 Preview: Astros vs. Red Sox Odds & Prediction
MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida previews Game 3 of the ALCS, breaks down Astros vs. Red Sox odds and delivers his own prediction (and free pick!) for Monday, October 18, 2021.
Astros vs. Red Sox Odds
| Astros Odds | +102 |
| Red Sox Odds | -120 |
| Over/Under | 9 |
| Date | Monday, Oct. 18 |
| Time | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
On Monday evening, the Houston Astros and the Boston Red Sox will battle in the American League Championship Series at Fenway Park. Houston scored four runs off of Boston’s bullpen in Game 1 to secure a come-from-behind win. In Game 2, the Red Sox hit two grand slams in an easy victory to tie up the series. In Game 3, Houston will send Jose Urquidy to the hill as they look to regain the series lead. He will be opposed by Eduardo Rodriguez. Oddsmakers are anticipating the Red Sox taking a 2-1 series lead, pricing Boston as -112 home favorites.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where MLB bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 3 of the ALCS.
Read more: Red Sox vs. Astros Series Preview
Houston Astros (-104)
Urquidy was solid during the regular season with a 3.62 ERA, 3.87 xERA, and a 4.14 FIP through 20 turns in the rotation. He was dependable when pitching away from Minute Maid Park as well—posting a 3.88 FIP and a 1.07 WHIP across 56.0 innings of work. Still, Urquidy has an extremely tough assignment against a dangerous Boston lineup on Monday evening. It certainly does not help matters that he has not pitched in a game since October 3. He threw 84 pitches in that contest, so he should be reasonably stretched out, but he could be in for a short night if he experiences any rust in a pivotal Game 3 for the Astros.
Against left-handed pitching in 2021, Houston ranked fourth in OPS, fifth in ISO, 14th in walk rate, and had the best strikeout percentage of any team in the league at the plate. The Astros have scored five or more runs in each of their six postseason games this October. Jose Altuve, Michael Brantely, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa, Kyle Tucker, and Yuli Gurriel is arguably the deepest lineup in baseball. Expect disciplined at-bats to lead to a number of scoring opportunities for this group once again in Game 3.
Houston has significant question marks in their bullpen. Manager Dusty Baker has two fantastic options at the backend of his bullpen with Kendall Graveman and Ryan Pressly, but Phil Maton, Yimi Garcia, Ryne Stanek, and Brooks Raley are far from elite options to bridge the gap from the starter to the latter frames. Still, this unit performed admirably in the series opener—allowing only one earned run in 6.1 innings after Framber Valdez was chased from the contest in the third inning. This unit was spared from overuse in Game 2 thanks to four strong innings from Jake Odorizzi after Luis Garcia lasted only one inning, allowing five earned runs. After the off-day yesterday, there are no usage concerns tonight.
Boston Red Sox (-112)
Rodriguez was less than spectacular in Game 1 of the division series, lasting only 1.2 innings in a losing effort. However, he was excellent in his Game 4 start against the Rays, allowing only two earned runs while striking out six batters across five innings. In 2021, as has been the case throughout his career, Rodriguez was at his best when pitching at Fenway Park. In home starts, he posted a 3.25 FIP and a 29.1 strikeout percentage. Prior to getting roughed up in Game 1 against Tampa Bay, Rodriguez had turned in a 2.11 ERA and a 1.86 FIP across his previous 21.1 innings of work. Bettors should expect Rodriguez to keep Boston competitive in this contest, despite facing one of the most talented lineups in baseball.
Against right-handed pitching during the regular season, the Red Sox ranked second in OPS, second in ISO, 19th in walk rate, and 17th in strikeout percentage. In four games against right-handed starting pitching this October, the Red Sox are undefeated, averaging nearly seven runs per game.This lineup has the potential for another strong night against Urquidy, who has not pitched in over two weeks.
It was less than ideal for Manager Alex Cora to burn through seven relief pitchers in a Game 1 loss, but none of those seven arms threw more than 18 pitches. In Game 2. Nathan Eovaldi gave Boston some much-needed length, lasting 5.1 innings. After the off-day yesterday, Cora has no usage concerns of which to be mindful. Expect Cora to be incredibly aggressive with his bullpen if Rodriguez experiences any struggles in the early part of this contest.
Game 3 Picks
These are two evenly matched teams with elite offenses and suspect pitching staffs. Since the beginning of the 2019 season, Fenway Park has been one of the most hitter-friendly venues in the league in night games—ranking fifth in offensive production out of 30 stadiums. Urquidy and Rodriguez both have tough assignments tonight on the mound. Both bullpens are rested, but neither is particularly talented. As we predicted in our series preview, offense has been on full display through the first two games of the ALCS. Bettors should expect another high-scoring affair in Game 3. Take the over.
PICKS: Over 9 (-110)
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