ALCS Game 4 Preview: Astros vs. Red Sox Odds & Prediction

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MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida previews Game 4 of the ALCS, breaks down Astros vs. Red Sox odds and delivers his own prediction (and free pick!) for Tuesday, October 19, 2021.

Astros vs. Red Sox Odds

Astros Odds +110
Red Sox Odds -130
Over/Under 10
Date Tuesday, Oct. 19
Time 8:08 p.m. ET
TV FOX

On Tuesday evening, the Houston Astros and the Boston Red Sox will battle in the American League Championship Series at Fenway Park. Houston scored four runs off of Boston’s bullpen in Game 1 to secure a come-from-behind win. In Game 2, the Red Sox hit two grand slams in an easy victory to tie up the series. In Game 3, Boston’s bats erupted for 12 runs in a dominating victory. In Game 4, Houston will send Zack Greinke to the hill. He will be opposed by Nick Pivetta. Oddsmakers are anticipating the Red Sox taking a 2-1 series lead, pricing Boston as -112 home favorites.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 3 of the ALCS.

Read more: Red Sox vs. Astros Series Preview

Houston Astros (+110)

At 37 years old, Greinke finally started to show signs of decline. Across 171.0 innings this year, he posted a 4.16 ERA, 4.42 xERA, and a 4.71 FIP. He had the lowest strikeout rate since his sophomore campaign in 2005. Post All-Star Break, Greinke had a 5.34 ERA and a 5.74 FIP, prompting a late-season demotion to the bullpen. The injury to “(player-popup #lance-mccullers)Lance McCullers Jr has forced Greinke back into a vulnerable position. In 2021, Greinke had a respectable 3.74 FIP the first time through the order. However, opposing batters tagged him for a 5.25 FIP the second time through the order, and a 5.24 FIP the third time they saw him. Against a dangerous Boston lineup that rarely strikes-out, Greinke could be in for a rough outing.

Against right-handed pitching in 2021, Houston ranked fourth in OPS, ninth in ISO, 11th in walk rate, and had the second-best strikeout percentage of any team in the league at the plate. The Astros have scored five or more runs in six of their seven postseason games this October. Jose Altuve, Michael Brantely, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa, Kyle Tucker, and Yuli Gurriel is arguably the deepest lineup in baseball. Expect disciplined at-bats to lead to a number of scoring opportunities for this group once again in Game 4.

Houston continues to have significant question marks in their bullpen. Manager Dusty Baker has two fantastic options at the backend of his bullpen with Kendall Graveman and Ryan Pressly, but Phil Maton, Yimi Garcia, Ryne Stanek, and Brooks Raley are far from elite options to bridge the gap from the starter to the latter frames. This unit performed admirably in the series opener—allowing only one earned run in 6.1 innings after Framber Valdez was chased from the contest in the third inning. This unit was spared from overuse in Game 2 thanks to four strong innings from Jake Odorizzi after Luis Garcia lasted only one inning, allowing five earned runs. Yesterday, this relief corps gave up six earned runs in 6.1 innings. Overuse and lack of talent are increasingly becoming an issue as this series progresses.

Boston Red Sox (-130)

Nick Pivetta is nobody’s favorite pitcher to wager on, due to his high variance. Across 155.0 innings this year, he posted a 4.53 ERA, 3.84 xERA, and a 4.28 FIP. He was atrocious at Fenway Park with a 5.26 FIP and a 1.45 WHIP. In his final eight regular season appearances, he turned in a 5.87 ERA and a 4.73 FIP. In two postseason appearances, he has fared much better—holding the Tampa Bay Rays to only three earned runs in 8.2 innings. Still, Houston is a formidable lineup capable of doing a lot of damage against Pivetta. Expect a short outing from the Red Sox starter in Game 4.

Against right-handed pitching during the regular season, the Red Sox ranked second in OPS, second in ISO, 19th in walk rate, and 17th in strikeout percentage. In five games against right-handed starting pitching this October, the Red Sox are undefeated, averaging nearly eight runs per game.This lineup has the potential for another strong night against Greinke, who was one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball during the second half of the campaign.

It was less than ideal for Manager Alex Cora to burn through seven relief pitchers in a Game 1 loss, but none of those seven arms threw more than 18 pitches. In Game 2. Nathan Eovaldi gave Boston some much-needed length, lasting 5.1 innings. Yesterday, Rodriguez delivered six strong innings, leaving only three innings for the bullpen to cover. This unit is rested and should have everyone available tonight in the latter frames. Expect Cora to be aggressive with this unit if Pivetta struggles in the early going.

Game 4 Picks

These are two evenly matched teams with elite offenses and suspect pitching staffs. Since the beginning of the 2019 season, Fenway Park has been one of the most hitter-friendly venues in the league in night games—ranking fifth in offensive production out of 30 stadiums. Greinke and Pivetta are both hittable arms that have tough assignments tonight on the mound in this one. Neither Houston nor Boston has a particularly talented bullpen. As we predicted in our series preview, offense has been on full display through the first three games of the ALCS. Bettors should expect another high-scoring affair in Game 4. Take the over.

PICKS: Over 10 (-110)

Image Credit: Imagn

About the Author

nickgalaida
Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom