Antonio Gibson's Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds & Week 1 DFS Value Rise After Washington Cuts Peterson
As news broke that the Washington Football Team was parting ways with veteran running back Adrian Peterson Friday morning, online sports betting sites quickly adjusted Offensive Rookie of the Year odds for his presumptive successor, Antonio Gibson.
Gibson, a rookie out of Memphis, was as long as 150-1 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year during the offseason. His odds shortened after Washington first dropped running back Derrius Guice, 23, in response to domestic violence charges.
Known for his pass-catching ability — Gibson actually played wide receiver during his two-year stint at Memphis — Washington’s third-round draft pick quickly became a notable late-round sleeper in both season-long and Best Ball drafts.
Now, with the news that Peterson is leaving the nation’s capital, Gibson has moved toward the top of NFL odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year and is sure to be one of the most talked about DFS values ahead of Week 1.
Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds: Can Gibson Contend?
DraftKings Sportsbook, headed by veteran oddsmaker Johnny Avello, acted preemptively, moving Gibson to 25-1 as early as August 8.
However, NFL futures bettors could still snag 40-1 odds at PointsBet and 50-1 at BetMGM Friday morning. Those odds didn’t last long, though. By 11 pm ET, Gibson was 14-1 and 15-1, respectively, at the two sportsbooks.
But is Gibson really a contender with rookies like Joe Burrow, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb and others?
First let’s look at some Offensive Rookie of the Year trends.
Running backs have won four of the last 10 Offensive Rookie of the Year awards, including Alvin Kamara in 2017. Kamara, like Gibson, was a third-round draft pick and has his pass-catching ability to become one of the league’s best backs.
Other running backs who have won the award weren’t dark horses like Kamara. Saquon Barkley (‘18) and Todd Gurley (‘15) won after being selected in the first round, and Eddie Lacy, a second-round pick, won with the Green Bay Packers in 2013.
Of the remaining six winners dating back to the 2010 season, only one, Odell Beckham Jr, was a receiver and the rest were quarterbacks — Kyler Murray (‘19), Dak Prescott (‘15), Robert Griffin (‘12), Cam Newton (‘11), and Sam Bradford (‘10).
Given the history, it’s no surprise Joe Burrow is a heavy favorite with +230 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Burrow just came off one of the best passing seasons in college football history, and he’ll throw to talented backs and receivers in his rookie campaign.
Gibson will also have to beat out the likes of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Ceedee Lamb.
Expected to be the lead back for the league’s best offense, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is coming in with an 1.6 ADP in Best Ball drafts at UnderDog Fantasy. Becoming one of the most popular picks to win Offensive Rookie of the Year following the NFL Draft, Edwards-Helaire’s odds shortened from 20-1 to 4-1, where they currently sit at BetMGM.
Drafted by the Dallas Cowboys with the 17th pick, CeeDee Lamb is expected to have a large role in the passing game in arguably the NFC’s best offense. Add in lingering injury concerns for Amari Cooper, and Lamb is a strong candidate to become only the fourth receiver in the last 20 years to win the honor.
So will Gibson have the role and talent to contend with any of these 2020 first-round picks? It sounds like he might.
Skeptics will point to the fact that Gibson ran the ball only 33 times during his time at Memphis. Remember, Gibson was listed as a receiver in college, grabbing 38 receptions and 8 touchdowns through the air while averaging 19.3 yards per reception. But when he did run the ball, he was tough to stop.
Gibson averaged an absurd 11.2 yards per carry and found the end zone four times when handed the ball behind the line of scrimmage. Of course, playing primarily as a receiver, some of those yards came from big gains on sweeps and reverses. But not all of them.
If you’re unfamiliar with Gibson and worried about his durability as a running back, it’s worth noting that, standing 6’0, he weighs in at 230 lbs, making him the largest running back on Washington’s depth chart.
Bryce Love and J.D. Mckissic could be tasked with the bulk of the carries between the tackles but Gibson should see the ball plenty, especially since the Washington Football Team, whose win total is one of the lowest in the NFL (O/U 5 at FOX Bet), will likely be playing from behind more times than not.
Washington head coach Ron Rivera compared Gibson to McCaffrey earlier this offseason. That’s probably a stretch and Washington football fans shouldn’t get carried away, but Adrian Peterson also had high praise for the young running back calling him “a hell of a talent.”
“Look Antonio Gibson is a hell of a talent. This system really fits him. I feel like I can do that pony style too, more as a receiving back. We were all working on it, but they really want one main guy to do it & they drafted Gibson for it,” Peterson told Josina Anderson.
All of that to say, Gibson is a legitimate contender for Rookie of the Year; however, there’s little if any value to find at sportsbooks if you weren’t able to bet on him before the market moved on Friday. Instead of falling victim to buyer’s remorse, you’re better off looking elsewhere when it comes to Offensive Rookie of the Year odds for the 2020 NFL season.
One option is to bet on J.K Dobbins 33-1 at UniBet. Baltimore Ravens head coach Jim Harbaugh said Dobbins will have a significant role in their run-heavy offense. Or if you have an appetite for a deep loongshot, look at Laviska Shenault Jr, who is 100-1 at DraftKings but as short as 33-1 at other sportsbooks.
Gibson Carries DFS Value in Week 1
If you have FOMO but don’t want to pay the premium on Gibson’s current ROY odds, you can still play in him in your NFL DFS Week 1 lineups for a cheap price.
Gibson’s role in the passing game should make him a great play at DraftKings, where he carries a running back minimum 4K price tag. On FanDuel, which is half 1/2-point PPR, Gibson is only 4.6K.
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