Daily Batter Breakdown: Saturday, June 20th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-06-23 17:17:10

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Whenever there are at least eight games on the night slate, I’ll break down some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup.

The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries on FanDuel and DraftKings among other sites, and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him.

		Stephen Vogt
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.288	0.838	4.97%	0.360
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.200	0.582	4.00%	0.232
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Weaver – RIGHT		0.257	0.741	4.07%	0.326
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.029	0.000	$3,200	$8,300	$3,700	$73,100

Stephen Vogt

Vogt is starting to swing a hot stick lately and with his price decreasing again, his .399 wOBA and .286 ISO are extremely attractive. Weaver is having some of the worst stats of his career, and it is not surprising because of the low fastball velocity as his strikeouts are not even close to his career numbers and he is relying more on defense to get his outs. Vogt is one of the better power-hitting catchers and looks to be a premier option.

		Derek Norris
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.318	0.865	2.56%	0.379
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.160	0.592	8.00%	0.256
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Ray – LEFT		0.277	0.814	3.22%	0.358
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.190	0.000	$3,000	$7,400	$3,800	$67,800

Derek Norris

Like I will talk about later, Robbie Ray numbers have improved since last year, and although they do not look like a guy who needs to be stacked against, his numbers from last year against right-handers indicate a guy who probably is in line for a shellacking soon. The Padres have been getting a bad wrap for how bad their offense is, but they are truly only setup to hit against lefties and Norris is as well. Norris has not hit a homer this year against a lefty, but he does have a .382 wOBA and it is just a matter of time until he hits one.

		Adrian Gonzalez
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.302	0.910	5.33%	0.388
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.133	0.328	0.00%	0.149
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Hudson – RIGHT		0.281	0.755	1.95%	0.332
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.989	0.000	$3,000	$8,300	$4,500	$75,200

Adrian Gonzalez

Tim Hudson has been good for a while but he has not been good against lefties at all. He has a 4.88 xFIP this year against them with a .335 wOBA. Gonzalez has been struggling after his monster start to the year but he still has great career numbers against righties with a .383 wOBA and a 142 wRC+. With a lot of 4 run over/unders tonight, there are a lot of possibilties at first base and I really like Gonzalez as one of them.

		Ben Zobrist
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.244	0.712	2.00%	0.317
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.391	1.221	4.35%	0.511
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Weaver – RIGHT		0.257	0.741	4.07%	0.326
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.029	0.000	$3,200	$9,550	$4,000	$76,500

Ben Zobrist

Here come the swingin’ A’s with a solid lineup that is getting fairly hot. Guys like Zobrist, Burns, and Vogt all make solid plays, especially tonight against Weaver, whose fastball is continually losing velocity and he looks primed for a meatball every time he throws a pitch. Zobrist has been a better hitter as a right hander, but he has more power as a lefty. Weaver is in trouble here, he has a .340 wOBA allowed to lefties and is facing one of the hotter hitting teams in the last week.

		Mike Moustakas
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.260	0.723	3.13%	0.319
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.381	1.004	4.76%	0.441
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Porcello – RIGHT		0.270	0.745	2.57%	0.325
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.865	0.000	$2,800	$8,100	$4,000	$77,300

Mike Moustakas

Porcello has improved against lefties in his career, especially lately, but he still has not been a shutdown pitcher against them. This could spell trouble against Moustakas and some of the Royals’ power bats tonight as Moustakas has a .398 wOBA against righties this year and has been lights out with his lowest K% of his career. I usually do not use Royals too often as they like to single you to death, but there are not a lot of great options tonight.

		Francisco Lindor
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits
		Last 7 Days Splits
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD

Francisco Lindor

Lindor is cheap on both sites and at the basic minimum on FanDuel. He has been hitting close to the top of the Indians’ lineup and while he is a solid defensive prospect, the bat numbers really have not been there in the minors. Granted, he is not a bad hitter, but he is not the prospect of someone like Correa. Erasmo has been solid this year but his numbers against lefties should hit a regression soon, more towards the 5.01 xFIP he allowed last year. If Lindor hits at the top of the lineup, I really like him on all sites.

		Matt Kemp
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.258	0.744	3.09%	0.323
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.259	0.815	7.41%	0.356
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Ray – LEFT		0.277	0.814	3.22%	0.358
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.190	0.000	$2,800	$7,800	$4,700	$65,700

Matt Kemp

Kemp is not good value on DraftKings, but I love him on FanDuel at $2,800 tonight. While Ray has good numbers this year against right-handers (the xFIP is decent but not good), he was horrible against righties last year giving up a .448 wOBA and 5.26 xFIP last year. Righties should be able to take advantage and despite the Padres pathetic offense this year, they still have them at a 4 over/under tonight. Kemp has been horrible this year against lefties, but he owns a .397 career wOBA and might be breaking out of his slump with two homers in four games.

		Brett Gardner
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.261	0.773	3.21%	0.339
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.185	0.591	3.70%	0.262
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Simon – RIGHT		0.248	0.711	2.85%	0.312
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.143	0.000	$3,800	$8,950	$5,000	$75,800

Brett Gardner

Gardner is a bit pricey but he is having his best season ever against right handed pitching and gets to hit in Yankee Stadium tonight. Simon has been great, especially against right handers, but he has struggled more throughout his career against lefties. He has a low BABIP but still a .310 wOBA against lefties and Gardner is hitting righties at a .352 wOBA and a 124 wRC+.

		J.D. Martinez
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.304	0.872	4.97%	0.375
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.350	1.285	15.00%	0.529
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Eovaldi – RIGHT		0.260	0.687	1.52%	0.303
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.143	0.000	$3,200	$9,600	$4,200	$77,900

J.D. Martinez

Martinez has been raking against right-handed pitching this year going for a .367 wOBA and almost all of his homers. He has hit 12 against right-handers this year, and despite the fact that Eovaldi is only allowing a .300 wOBA to righties, he is far from lights out against them. Martinez has been one of the Tigers’ best hitters this year and should continue that tonight, at a bargain for his FanDuel price at $3,200.

		Jay Bruce
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.228	0.692	3.58%	0.303
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.391	1.134	4.35%	0.476
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Koehler – RIGHT		0.241	0.698	2.85%	0.311
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.180	0.000	$3,300	$8,500	$4,300	$61,700

Jay Bruce

Bruce is notorious for being a hot streak hitter, so what do we have here? A hot streak. He has passed 18 DK fantasy points in the last 3 games and is doing it every way and not just with homers. He loves hitting against RHP and Koehler has allowed 10 of his 11 HR this year to lefties while managing to allow a .357 wOBA an a 4.67 xFIP. This is a solid matchup for the Cincinnati lefties and Bruce’s price is still affordable.

Editor’s Note: Tom Koehler will not start for the Marlins today. Justin Nicolino will start in his place.