Daily Batter Breakdown: Tuesday, July 7th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-07-10 15:09:01

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Whenever there are at least eight games on the night slate, I’ll break down some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup.

The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries on FanDuel and DraftKings among other sites, and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him.

Like usual, the Coors Field game will be ignored here, so you will not see any of those obvious plays despite it being a great matchup for them.

		Robinson Chirinos
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.228	0.758	6.04%	0.332
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.176	0.575	5.88%	0.253
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Ray – LEFT		0.264	0.791	2.78%	0.345
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.206	0.000	$2,300	$6,600	$3,400	$57,500

Robinson Chirinos

I love Grandal as well, but I am going to continue pushing Chirinos. He has the upside and the low ownership to win you a GPP, and with Robbie Ray taking the mound in a hitter’s park, Chirinos should have the ability to hit one out. We are going to have to take stock in Ray being solid against RHP eventually, as he continues to prove last season’s numbers wrong, but I still think there is a regression in play here. With Chirinos’ .331 wOBA and .245 ISO against lefties, he certainly is a high upside GPP gamble.

		Adrian Gonzalez
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.301	0.909	5.57%	0.387
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.111	0.683	11.11%	0.299
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Billingsley – RIGHT		0.475	1.312	7.50%	0.559
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.046	0.000	$2,900	$9,300	$3,800

Adrian Gonzalez

Billingsley returns to Dodger Stadium as a member of the worst team in baseball trying to resurrect his career. Gonzalez’s price actually went down after he homered last night, and I am looking at him to get a hot streak going and to be on it from the start. Billingsley has no sample size this year but has allowed a .553 wOBA to lefties, allowing almost double the amount of runs to score than innings pitched. He has never done very well against lefties, but this year he has been exceptionally bad in the games he has pitched. Gonzalez should use his .397 wOBA against righties to his advantage and win this matchup.

		Justin Turner
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.352	0.978	4.30%	0.425
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.238	0.667	0.00%	0.304
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Billingsley – RIGHT		0.259	0.603	0.00%	0.269
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.046	0.000	$3,400	$7,400	$3,700	$64,800

Justin Turner

All of the Dodgers seem to have gone down in price since yesterday, and I am not sure if that had something to do with O’Sullivan or whether it has to do with Coors being in play here. Regardless, Turner is still a great play being a solid hitter against right-handers; he has a .467 (!!) wOBA and a 207 wRC+ against right-handed pitching so far this season. Turner is a great reverse splits guy and should be a fantastic play today at second (for cheap) against Billingsley.

		Josh Donaldson
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.292	0.998	8.33%	0.424
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.250	0.679	3.13%	0.295
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Quintana – LEFT		0.270	0.709	1.50%	0.312
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.745	0.000	$4,100	$10,400	$5,400	$91,200

Josh Donaldson

Donaldson managed a productive day against Sale yesterday, and that just proves how locked in he always is against lefties. Quintana is no Sale, and with a .353 wOBA allowed to righties, he could be in trouble tonight. Donaldson has a .433 wOBA against lefties, which is not going to regress any time soon; this looks like a career number for him. His ISO, wRC+ and OPS are off the charts, and any time he faces a lefty regardless of price he is in play.

		Brock Holt
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.284	0.735	1.09%	0.327
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.333	0.733	0.00%	0.334
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Haren – RIGHT		0.238	0.706	4.58%	0.307
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.115	0.000	$3,100	$5,900	$3,300	$51,500

Brock Holt

Holt is very cheap here, and with this game having the second-highest total over/under of the day, I really like the players from this game, I am just not sure who to pick. Haren has been remarkably average this year, and while he does not have anything that really stands out to me, Holt does have a .357 wOBA against-right handers this year and has been hitting at the top of the lineup. Holt has a power/speed combo that is useful, and his price is low today.

		Brandon Crawford
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.226	0.685	2.69%	0.295
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.143	0.565	9.52%	0.231
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Colon – RIGHT		0.270	0.708	2.45%	0.307
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.755	0.000	$3,000	$7,950	$3,700	$70,500

Brandon Crawford

Another lackluster day for shortstops makes Crawford one of the top plays today against Bartolo Colon. Colon was solid in the last game, but he has been pretty poor in the few before it. While Crawford has done a lot of damage to lefties this season, he still has solid numbers against right-handers and is cheap today. Crawford is a reliable power bat who will bat towards the middle of the lineup in a position at shortstop that does not have too many reliable options.

		Joc Pederson
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.230	0.883	7.11%	0.383
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.143	0.503	4.76%	0.228
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Billingsley – RIGHT
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.046	0.000	$3,300	$8,400	$3,700	$65,300

Joc Pederson

I only like Joc tonight because of the fact he disappointed a ton of people last night and I think a lot will be off of him. Yes he is struggling, but he is one of the best bets for a homer again tonight; Billingsley has given up three home runs in just under seven innings against LHB this year. Pederson’s price went way down on DraftKings, and he is still crushing right-handers. With the Vegas lines the way they are and the fact that he is going to be lower owned at a lower price, I am in.

		Gerardo Parra
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.225	0.609	1.45%	0.280
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.448	1.252	6.90%	0.518
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Banuelos – LEFT		0.250	0.650	0.00%	0.320
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
1.162	0.000	$3,200	$8,000	$4,000	$63,300

Gerardo Parra

Parra went deep last night and continued his string of massive fantasy point games. We finally get a price increase on DraftKings, but I am not sure if that is enough to drive me off of him today. Leading off against Banuelos, a guy with solid stuff but a penchant to be pretty poor and streaky in the minors, Parra should be able to do some damage today. His price is going up, but I still think there is room for value.

		Nelson Cruz
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.330	1.074	7.85%	0.449
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.292	0.903	8.33%	0.387
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Ryan – LEFT		0.240	0.741	4.00%	0.330
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF	SS	FTD
0.846	0.000	$3,300	$10,000	$4,900	$81,900

Nelson Cruz

The beginning of the season hot streak is over, but Cruz has been hitting well lately. He gets a great matchup tonight against Kyle Ryan, who is a lefty that has been quite homer prone this season in the majors. Ryan has a 4.76 xFIP, and with his fairly high wOBA allowed and Cruz’ .527 wOBA against left-handers this year, I see no reason to not consider him for your lineups. His price on DraftKings is still quite high, but he should be able to do a lot of Seattle’s damage today.