Daily Batter Breakdown: Wednesday, July 22nd

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2015-07-24 12:44:06

Welcome to the Daily Batter Breakdown. Whenever there are at least eight games on the night slate, I’ll break down some of the best top tier hitters to target based on matchup.

The biggest split taken into account will be left/right, but each player card will also show park factors, player salaries on FanDuel and DraftKings among other sites, and then a description of why I’ll be targeting him.

		Yadier Molina
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.251	0.687	2.34%	0.303
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.188	0.438	0.00%	0.19
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Danks – LEFT		0.283	0.838	3.80%	0.364
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
0.767	0.000	$2,300	$5,950	$3,100	$49,600

Yadier Molina

With eight games going tonight and not a ton of pitchers to target and no Coors Field game, Molina makes a solid gamble at catcher. He is having one of his worst seasons ever against left-handers but that is due to change at some point. Over the last five years, he has crushed left-handed pitching and even had a .428 wOBA in 2012. By no means is he the slugger now that he was back then, but he certainly is not .254 wOBA bad. With John Danks allowing a .382 wOBA to right-handers and being one of the worst pitchers on the slate despite pitching at home, Molina’s price and matchup make for a solid play.

		Billy Butler
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.284	0.827	3.72%	0.358
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.333	1.218	16.67%	0.514
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Doubront – LEFT		0.267	0.000		0.356
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
0.972	0.000	$3,200	$8,500	$3,700	$71,800

Billy Butler

Butler is a contrarian play at first as there are so many good options and no one hardly ever uses him due to his middling price and almost always middling results. His power swing seems to have returned as he has hit two homers in the last two games. He faces Felix Doubront tonight, who has been poor against righties with a .370 wOBA this year, I think he has a good chance to hit another one. Billy has a .384 career wOBA against lefties and has crushed them in his career. He has struggled a bit this year but still has four of his five homers and looks to be getting back on track.

		Ben Zobrist
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.326	0.845	1.34%	0.370
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.200	0.633	0.00%	0.258
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Doubront – LEFT		0.267	0.000		0.356
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
0.972	0.000	$2,900	$7,650	$3,800	$67,600

Ben Zobrist

I always like Zobrist for cash games, especially at a low price like $3,800 on DK or $2,900 on FD. He has been better as a right-handed hitter in his career than a lefty, so taking him against a lefty is generally a better idea than taking him against a righty. With Doubront struggling against righties so far this year, Zobrist and Butler make a cheap, underowned pair who could rack up some fantasy points in GPPs as well as cash games allowing you to take a guy like Sonny Gray at pitcher as well.

		Nick Castellanos
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.263	0.714	1.52%	0.316
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.000	0.2	0.00%	0.137
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Montgomery – LEFT		0.205	0.570	2.34%	0.255
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
0.986	0.000	$2,400	$5,250	$3,200	$39,300

Nick Castellanos

I am very intrigued by this Tigers/Mariners line tonight, especially the over/under. While Mike Montgomery has posted decent numbers overall this season (especially against righties with a .255 wOBA), he is still under the small sample size title and his last three starts have not been good. He is pitching to righties at a .225 BABIP which is due to come back to the mean and his xFIP is not stellar at 4.07. The Tigers have the biggest over/under in the late slate meaning that Vegas does not believe in Montgomery, and I will be loading up my Tigers tonight as I think that they will go under-owned because of Montgomery’s solid start. That is without mentioning Castellanos’ price, and his numbers against LHP, which feature a 121 wRC+ and a .347 wOBA.

		Manny Machado
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.295	0.855	5.18%	0.371
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.364	1.261	9.09%	0.525
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Nova – RIGHT		0.291	0.000		0.434
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
1.230	0.000	$4,400	$10,350	$4,900	$88,400

Manny Machado

Ivan Nova is still at the small sample size portion of this season having just rejoined the team. He has never been particularly good at getting right-handers out with a .343 wOBA allowed in his career although he has been solid this year with a .297 wOBA allowed. Machado is really pushing his power numbers against righties and has been hitting them extremely well lately – his .385 wOBA and 16 HRs are solid numbers and he should continue getting plenty of at bats as the leadoff hitter. This game has a great over/under and should have runs.

		Jhonny Peralta
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.254	0.849	5.47%	0.368
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.357	1.043	7.14%	0.43
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Danks – LEFT		0.283	0.838	3.80%	0.364
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
0.767	0.000	$3,300	$9,150	$4,300	$76,200

Jhonny Peralta

Peralta is down this year against lefties, but with him hitting .384 and .414 wOBA’s against lefties in the previous two years, I have no doubt that his .355 wOBA this year will increase. Not that that is a bad number, but it shows the upside that he has, especially considering his power numbers are up this year. Danks is not good, and with him getting shelled in almost 75% of his starts and the Cardinals sitting at 4.5 over/under right now, the Cards’ righties are looking like solid gambles.

		J.D. Martinez
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.291	0.950	7.69%	0.402
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.214	0.695	7.14%	0.303
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Montgomery – LEFT		0.205	0.570	2.34%	0.255
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
0.986	0.000	$4,200	$9,350	$4,900	$69,400

J.D. Martinez

I have been riding the Martinez train for a while and I am not about to hop off now. With Montgomery looking to regress with poor control and a terrible WHIP in the last three games, Martinez should be able to take advantage again tonight and drive in a few runs. His .425 wOBA last year was awesome and while he is doing most of his damage against righties this year, a .375 wOBA against lefties is nothing to shrug at considering that has been raised in the last few weeks with his power surge. He is worth the money you are paying for, and he continually goes under-owned.

		Jacoby Ellsbury
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.272	0.724	2.35%	0.320
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.083	0.237	0.00%	0.121
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Gausman – RIGHT		0.261	0.728	1.61%	0.322
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
1.230	0.000	$3,800	$8,400	$4,200	$66,100

Jacoby Ellsbury

On the other side of the Yankees/Orioles game is Ellsbury, who is still much cheaper than he should be. He has struggled since returning to the lineup, which is why his price is so cheap. The thing is, he has solid numbers against righties as always with a .347 career wOBA and a plethora of stolen bases. He will be leading off against Kevin Gausman, who has allowed a .367 wOBA to righties this year along with the game having a solid over/under.

		Randal Grichuk
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.266	0.778	4.03%	0.337
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.333	1.417	16.67%	0.564
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Danks – LEFT		0.283	0.838	3.80%	0.364
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
0.767	0.000	$3,800	$9,500	$4,200	$73,900

Randal Grichuk

Grichuk is affordable as well and should continue hitting at the top of this Cardinals’ order tonight against the lefty Danks. I talked above about how bad Danks has been against right handers and while he has improved in two of the last three starts, his numbers are still terrible and he has bad season long numbers. Grichuk is improving – in the same sample as last year, he now has a .355 wOBA this year with a .231 ISO showing he does have power. His wRC+ is 128 and for a smaller price makes a great play today against Danks.

		Ian Kinsler
		Daily Breakdown		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Left/Right Splits		0.268	0.706	2.03%	0.312
		Last 7 Days Splits		0.308	1.126	15.38%	0.475
		Opp SP vs. LR		Avg	OPS	HR%	wOBA
		Montgomery – LEFT		0.205	0.570	2.34%	0.255
PARK-1	PARK-LR	FD	DD	DK	FF
0.986	0.000	$3,500	$9,050	$4,300	$65,000

Ian Kinsler

Kinsler is having one of his worst seasons against lefties and this could be a time when he gets it going. He has a .378 career wOBA, 132 career wRC+ with four seasons above .400 wOBA against left-handers. He has seemed to be on the decline lately against lefties, but I will take him tonight against Montgomery who I am expecting to meet regression in this game. Kinsler has been leading off and while I love Cespedes as well, Kinsler makes a solid play at second base if you are not using his counterpart in this game Cano.